Olympic Preview: The Ladiezzzz

Gurl no! Beware the Sport Illustrated curse!

Ever since Sonja Henie left the competitive arena and become one of the highest paid stars of 1930s Hollywood, ladies’ figure skating has been the premier glamor sport of the Olympics. It’s a sport that never fails to deliver on drama, triumphs, bitter defeats, and fashion disasters that will dominate the pop culture landscape for most of the next month. The Olympic ladies’ skating competition is also one of the most high-stakes events in all of amateur sports. A gold medal can be a springboard for international fame and fortune. Look no further than Peggy Fleming, Dorothy Hamill, Katarina Witt, Oksana Baiul, and Yuna Kim. You don’t always need the gold to profit from the sport if the circumstances are right (Nancy Kerrigan, Michelle Kwan), but just ask Linda Fratianne and Rosalyn Sumners where their Olympic silver medals got them in life.

The ladies’ event in Sochi feels especially exciting thanks to the presence of Yuna Kim – the first ladies’ gold medalist to attempt to defend her Olympic title since Katarina Witt in 1988. Yuna is a bona fide superstar in South Korea. She is the only competitive skater who can sell out arenas on just her name. Everyone in the skating world knows that they need to kiss up to Queen Yuna if they want to make any money from show skating. She endorses everything from cars to beer, she is an occasional Kpop star and author, and she had a key role in Pyeongchang’s successful bid to host the 2018 Winter Olympics.  Her star power brings a level of energy to ladies’ skating that has been missing since the height of the Michelle Kwan era.

Yuna missed the Grand Prix season thanks to a “foot injury” and instead opted to debut her Olympic programs at a tiny competition in Croatia away from media scrutiny. She’s working on a condensed preparation timeline compared to the other top ladies, but she is probably the most physically gifted athlete in the history of this sport. Yuna’s performance at Korean Nationals showed that she had the jumps back, but she’s missing her trademark speed and attack. She seemed to be going through the motions and just focusing on executing the technical content. Still, I have no doubt that Yuna Kim will show up to Sochi ready to go. For a skater who has suffered from burnout in the past, it is important for her to peak at the right time, and she is clearly saving her best for the performance that matters. Although Yuna has yet to face any of her competitors head to head, she has to be considered the gold medal favorite. She has a killer instinct and the ability to deliver under pressure.

In a repeat of Vancouver, Yuna’s closest competitor will again be Japanese star Mao Asada. Mao and Yuna have been pitted against each other since their days in the junior ranks, and their rivalry has dominated the figure skating fan community for much of the past eight years. Mao’s silver medal in Vancouver was a bitter disappointment for the powerful Japanese skating federation, and pressure is high for her to deliver in Sochi. She dominated the Grand Prix circuit with decisive wins at Skate America and NHK Trophy followed by a gold medal performance on home ice at the Grand Prix Final.  However, a disastrous performance at Japanese Nationals gave her a bronze medal that many felt was generous.

Mao heads into the Olympics with the most difficult technical content of the ladies’ field on paper. She is the only ladies’ skater with a triple axel, and she has planned to perform the jump once in the short program and twice in the long program. Her game plan is risky, and it’s unclear if it will pay off. Mao has a history of underrotations and improper jump technique, so the technical panel tends to especially scrutinize her performances. Even on a day when she lands everything she plans, she loses ground to Yuna Kim on execution. Mao has matured significantly over the years and is one of the most artistic competitive ladies’ skaters. Still, she rarely beats Yuna in program components. Yuna’s comeback put a serious damper on Mao’s quest for an Olympic gold. Mao-chan will have to deliver like she never has before and pray that Yuna falls a few times.

There will be plenty of outside challengers for an Olympic medal. If anyone can really upset and finish second or higher, it is Russian teen phenom Julia Lipnitskaia. The jump from junior to senior competition is often difficult, and it typically takes a year or two to build reputation and get program component scores that can compete with the top international skaters. Julia has completely cut the line and seems to gearing up for a Tara Lipinski moment on home ice in Sochi. She won both of her Grand Prix events and took the silver medal in the Grand Prix Final. She then won the European Championships with a higher long program score than Mao Asada has received in her entire career. Though Julia’s speed and ice coverage are weak compared to the older top ladies and her jumps can be small and kind of scary, international judges don’t seem to care. She is a strong competitor and has used her rather sullen demeanor to create the most effective “Schindler’s List” program I can remember. I expect her to ride her fabulous spins and amazing flexibility to the Olympic podium.

Still, the situation with the Russian ladies is a bit puzzling, as the Russian federation seems hell-bent on getting Adelina Sotnikova an Olympic medal. It is difficult to interpret her victory over Julia Lipnitskaia at Russian Nationals. Adelina has powerful jumps, but her overall packaging is straight out of my worst Irina Slutskaya nightmares. The polish and attention to detail simple aren’t there. Julia should really beat Adelina head-to-head every time they both skate well, but that is not always the case. Adelina also defeated Julia in the short program at the Grand Prix Final and the European Championships, but she has a tendency to self-destruct in the long program. It is certainly not out of the question for two Russian ladies to land on the Olympic podium. If Adelina puts together two clean programs in Sochi, who knows what will happen.

The American ladies’ prospects in Sochi look much brighter than they did in Vancouver. We no longer have to pretend that Rachael Flatt is an acceptable National Champion. Still, our girls have to contend with the deepest Olympic ladies’ field in recent memory. Gracie Gold fulfilled every marketer’s dream by decisively winning U.S. Nationals. Now she is unavoidable in NBC Olympic preview pieces and is slapped across the cover of the Sports Illustrated Olympic issue. Gracie’s move to Frank Carroll proved to be wise, as he has defied the odds and turned her into a lady. She still has some of the best jumps and spins in the world, but now she holds out her movements and attempts to interpret the music.

It’s tough to know where Gracie’s ceiling is in Sochi. She is a different skater from the one we saw struggling on the Grand Prix. If she’s on, her technical marks should be near the top of the field. The judges can still bury her in the program components score if they want to. Gracie will not be given the benefit of the doubt in Sochi. She needs to have the two skates of her life and hope for a few mistakes from her competitors. An individual medal is certainly a possibility, and it would turn her into the star that U.S. Figure Skating desperately needs.

Where does that leave Ashley Wagner?  What started as a strong season with a victory at Trophee Eric Bompard and a bronze medal in the Grand Prix Final turned into a nightmare with a fourth place finish at U.S. Nationals. Suddenly U.S. Lady Number One became the ugly stepsister of the Olympic team when she was selected at the expense of fan favorite Mirai Nagasu after her best competition since the 2010 Olympics. Ashley realized her image is in need of some rehab after the Nationals controversy, so she dropped her “Romeo & Juliet” free skate in favor of last year’s much more popular “Samson & Delilah.”

Ashley is a solid, complete skater who always scores well internationally. Her problem is that there’s nothing truly remarkable about her skating. Even with strong performances at the last two World Championships, she finished fourth and fifth. If she lands all the jumps, she won’t match the other top ladies on spins and footwork. Her programs are well-choreographed, and she has really improved her interpretation, but she will never get the program components scores of a Yuna Kim or a Mao Asada.  She has tried to up the ante technically by going for a triple flip+triple toe combo in both programs, but she made an error on the element both times at Nationals. Ashley skates conservatively when she’s nervous, so I can see her watering down her content when the pressure is on. Despite what NBC wants us to believe, the Olympic podium has always been an uphill battle for Ashley Wagner, and I am not optimistic about her chances after a big blow to her confidence at Nationals. I hope I am wrong.

The surprise member of the U.S. Olympic Team is 15-year-old Polina Edmunds, who will be making her senior international debut in Sochi. Polina skated well at Nationals, but I was a bit baffled by her scores. She is a fine technician, but her skating is still very junior-ish. There is a big maturity gap between her and the other top American ladies that was not reflected in the program components scores. Rest assured that the gap will be reflected at the Olympics. International judges are not familiar with this girl, and they will not likely do her any favors in her first outing. Polina will have a difficult time finishing in the top 10 at in Sochi, though her strong technical content could keep her afloat if the top ladies falter. The girl is a feisty competitor who knows how to seize the moment.

The beneficiary of Mao Asada’s dismal performance at Japanese Nationals was Akiko Suzuki, a longtime fan favorite whose harrowing life story is Lifetime movie of the week material. Akiko had the skate of her career at Nationals and certainly turned some heads after most had written her off when she failed to make the Grand Prix Final. Akiko has long had the talent to be an Olympic medalist, but she tends to wilt under pressure. I hope her National title will be the boost she needs to throw down two clean skates in Sochi. She is a wonderfully musical skater who has the potential to really create a moment for herself in Sochi with her memorable “Phantom of the Opera” long program. Look for her to finish high in the standings if she delivers.

Japanese Nationals were also kind to Kanako Murakami after a she failed to medal at either of her Grand Prix events. She kept the momentum going with a superb showing at the Four Continents Championships, where she posted the third-highest long program score of the season after Julia Lipnitskaia and Mao Asada. Kanako is not an appealing skater or someone international judges necessarily want on the Olympic podium. However, much like a Romanian gymnast, you know she is going to stay on her feet when it counts. She was in the top five at the last two World Championships despite early season struggles and programs nobody really cared for. I will not be surprised to see her near the Olympic podium, especially if the long program is a splat-fest. Prepare yourselves for the least-Jewish performance to the music of Yentl you will ever see.

And then there is the odd case of Carolina Kostner. The Italian ice queen is a favorite of skating purists thanks to her deep edges, effortless speed, and engaging on-ice presence. Carolina has been a judge favorite over the last four years, as evidenced by her silver medal at last year’s World Championships despite major mistakes in both programs. However, her Olympic podium chances are in doubt after a disappointing Grand Prix season. After missing the Grand Prix Final, Carolina scrapped both of her programs and returned with a gorgeous new short program to Schubert’s “Ave Maria” and a reprise of last year’s sultry free skate to Ravel’s “Bolero.” She came away with a bronze medal from the European Championships, where not even her strong program components scores could keep her ahead of the Russian wunderkinds. Carolina should still be considered a contender for the podium in Sochi, but it’s clear that the international judges will no longer hold he up when she doesn’t skate well. The Olympics have never been a good event for Carolina Kostner, and it will be an uphill battle for her to end her impressive career on a high note. Carolina is just not a skater who is going to put together two clean programs in the same event.

I’ve probably mentioned all the feasible medal contenders, though there are a few ladies who have the potential for a strong finish (8^th or higher) if the stars align. Kaetlyn Osmond has struggled with injury all year, but she looked very sharp and ready to go at Canadian Nationals. Kaetlyn skates with reckless abandon, and her kamikaze-style jump entry is always a white-knuckle experience to watch. Still, she is a charismatic and talented skater who can knock some of the other top contenders out of the coveted top six group with a strong short program. China’s Li Zijun was also a question mark for much of the season due to injury, but her strong showing at the Four Continents Championships show that she is on the right track and could be a spoiler in Sochi. She has a delicate, graceful style that reminds one of a young Chen Lu, and she could be contending for World titles in the next couple of seasons. And then there is one of my personal favorites, Valentina Marchei, who will not likely be contending for the top six. However, she will certainly be serving serious face and attitude, and we should all root for her to make the top ten.