Alright folks. It's crunch time. Ballots were due on Tuesday, and those lovable nerds at PricewaterhouseCoopers have tabulated the results and sealed the envelopes. Preparations are underway at the Dolby Theater for tomorrow's 85h Academy Awards. I have obsessively watched every awards race since 1996 (when I was devastated that Madonna did not receive a Best Actress nomination for Evita), and I can honestly say that this has been one of my favorite years ever. All nine of the Best Picture nominees are at least really good, and there is a genuine sense that anything could happen tomorrow night. The nominations were wild, and there is a race in more than half of the "big 8" categories. I called the nominees fairly well (minus that debacle in the Best Director category), but I have had a hard time settling on the winners. I do feel confident in predicting that tomorrow night's show is going to be one of the hottest messes of all time. We've already been promised an Oscar show that will feature the most musical numbers of any Oscar telecast ever. The last time we got that promise, we also got Rob Lowe and Snow White singing "Proud Mary." Without further ado, here are my predictions in every category (minus the shorts, because who cares?).
Best Picture
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
After triumphing at the Globes, BAFTA, and almost all of the Guilds, it’s tough to imagine Argo losing at this point. My problem is still Ben Affleck’s snub. In 85 years of Oscar history, only three films have ever won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. The first two, Wings and Grand Hotel, were in the first four years of the Academy Awards, when the awards race was still a free-for-all. The other was Driving Miss Daisy in 1989, so there obviously isn’t a pattern here. At the end of the day, it’s impossible to deny the support for Argo in the industry. Like I said before, it’s a true story about Hollywood saving the world. Everybody at least likes it and nobody hates it, which is essential in prevailing in the preferential balloting system for Best Picture. This is the only category that requires voters to rank their choices, and I imagine Argo is in almost everyone’s top three. This is a system that favors the consensus pick (see The King’s Speech and The Artist), and I think Argo absolutely fits the same mold. It’s also worth noting that Warner Brothers’ campaign strategy has played up the Affleck snub brilliantly. All of the advertising has emphasized that Affleck is still nominated as a producer of Argo, so he still gets his Oscar if the movie wins Best Picture. As for the directing snub, the Academy directors branch is a small and idiosyncratic group. I don’t think we’ll ever know exactly why Affleck didn’t make the cut, but it doesn’t seem to matter this year. Ben Affleck is the Bruce Beresford of the 21st century!
An upset is not out of the question here. Lincoln looks like a winner on paper: Spielberg at the helm, Daniel Day-Lewis in the title role, a Tony Kushner script, glowing reviews, 12 Oscar nominations, and nearly $200 million at the domestic box office. And it’s about Abraham Lincoln! In the wake of the Affleck snub, Lincoln became the default frontrunner. Then it lost every single pre-Oscar Best Picture prize to Argo. What went wrong? Ultimately, I think it was a failure of marketing. DreamWorks has treated the post-nominations campaign for Lincoln like a coronation. Between the themed cookbooks and leather bound scripts sent to Academy members and Bill Clinton showing up to present the film at the Golden Globes, DreamWorks has made Lincoln feel like an obligation to Oscar voters. If there is one thing that members of the Academy hate, it’s being told what to vote for (see also: Saving Private Ryan, Gangs of New York). The perception around town is now that Lincoln is self-important and boring, which was not the case when the movie came out last fall. Still, those 12 nominations prove widespread support for the film throughout all branches of the Academy. It’s still possible that Lincoln could take home the big prize, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
The likelier spoiler to me is probably Silver Linings Playbook. Harvey Weinstein proved that he is still very much on his game when this film pulled off a jaw-dropping 8 nominations, including David O. Russell for Best Director, an acting nomination in every category, and Best Film Editing. Ever since the nominations came out, Harvey has been playing hardball for the win with David O. Russell talking to every possible media outlet about how he made this movie to give hope to his bipolar son, Robert De Niro crying to Katie Couric, and Bradley Cooper meeting with Joe Biden about mental health. It is also peaking just at the right time commercially as it continues to ride its Oscar buzz to the $100 million mark. Much like Argo, this is another movie that everyone likes and will probably be top three on most Best Picture ballots. The Argo train might be too strong to derail, but I would not be surprised if Harvey Weinstein pulled off his third win in a row. He’s just that good.
Life of Pi is probably the fourth most likely. It’s been this year’s stealth contender, quietly racking up 11 nominations without a ton of buzz. It joins Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook as one of the only films with nominations for both Directing and Film Editing, which is usually a necessary combination for the Best Picture win. Though I expect Life of Pi to pick up a nice awards haul in the technical categories, I don’t think it’s strong enough for the big win. It is the only Best Picture nominee without any acting nominations, and the actors branch is by far the largest voting faction of the Academy. It’s hard to win without their support. The rest of the nominees are either too small (Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild) or have too many detractors (Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Zero Dark Thirty) to prevail with a preferential ballot.
Best Director
Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
My real answer here is: I don’t know. Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow have won every pre-Oscar award that matters, and neither is nominated here. Haneke and Zeitlin are long shots, but any of the other three could conceivably take it. My gut says Ang Lee. Fox has seen an opening in the absence of Affleck, and the bulk of the campaign ads for Life of Pi have been all about Lee. It’s rare to see a director get this kind of star billing, and I think it’s working. Ang Lee is getting all of the credit for that film’s success, and the general perception seems to be that his film presented the highest degree of difficulty for the director. This might not mean anything, but Lee got the most enthusiastic applause of anyone in attendance at this year’s Oscar nominee luncheon. He definitely has the respect and clout to pull off another Oscar win. I think of the three films that have a chance here, Life of Pi is the one that is most widely considered to be a directorial achievement. In the absence of any kind of awards support for any of these guys, that’s all I’ve got.
If it’s not Lee, it’s probably Russell, even though it would be very bizarre for Silver Linings Playbook to win Director and not Picture. The problem I have is that the praise for this film has been all about the acting and the writing. However, it’s important to remember that the actors hold a lot of power here, and David O. Russell has directed seven actors to Oscar nominations in the last three years, including two winners in The Fighter and probably at least one more this year. There is also a lot of historical overlap between Best Picture and Best Director, which suggests that voters typically just pick the same movie in both categories. It stands to reason that the movie that comes in second place to Argo could take home Best Director by default. I really think that movie is Silver Linings Playbook. And again, never underestimate Harvey Weinstein.
Spielberg could still win this, but the Lincoln train seems to have run out of steam. Like Ang Lee, he definitely has the respect to win another directing Oscar. It’s just a matter of passion, and I don’t sense it for Lincoln.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
This category is not even worth discussing. If it’s not Daniel Day-Lewis, Harvey Weinstein probably hijacked the ballot box. The more interesting question: Is this the only Oscar Lincoln wins? I’m leaning towards yes.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
This looked fairly obvious on nomination day, but now I’m not so sure. Lawrence is still the favorite. She is the Hollywood it-girl of the moment, she’s in a beloved Best Picture contender, and she has Harvey Weinstein in her corner. Her biggest problem is the emergence of Amour as a serious awards player, which culminated in Emmanuelle Riva winning the BAFTA. We now have an interesting dichotomy between the 22 year-old starlet and the 85 year-old French screen legend. Though the Weinstein publicity machine has done a good job of positioning Lawrence as the Carole Lombard/Irene Dunne of her generation, the buzz among Academy members seems to be that Riva’s performance is the more respectable and serious acting achievement of the two. It’s a close race, but I’m calling it for Lawrence because a.) Harvey rarely loses Best Actress races, even when they’re close (Meryl Streep over Viola Davis last year, Gwyneth Paltrow over Cate Blanchett in 1998) and b.) Best Actress almost always goes to young, beautiful women. The exceptions are women like Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep, who were campaigning like their lives depended on it. Riva has simply not done a lot of press for Amour due to her health and a significant language barrier, and that will unfortunately damage her chances. I think Riva will get a lot of votes, but Lawrence should prevail in the end.
Jessica Chastain is solidly in third place, and is still working the publicity circuit like she wants to win. However, the controversy over Zero Dark Thirty has made it almost impossible for her to win. I think Academy members are going to avoid that film like the plague. I do wonder if this bizarre tabloid story about Chastain’s tragic childhood that’s been going around was started by her publicity team in an attempt to grab sympathy votes. Or maybe I’m too cynical. A recent anonymous survey in Entertainment Weekly showed that Naomi Watts is shockingly pulling in some votes, but I think (and hope) that it won’t be enough. The nomination is the reward for Wallis.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
This is another wild category, and you could make a case for any of these men winning. This is the first time in Oscar history where one acting category is made up entirely of former Oscar winners, and all of them are respected enough to conceivably win another Oscar before they die. I go back and forth, but I think De Niro will be swept up in the general support for Silver Linings Playbook. He’s widely considered to be one of the greatest living actors, but he’s been working below his talent level for the past twenty years. I think Hollywood is happy to see him in highbrow fare again, and he’s certainly campaigned harder than I ever expected him to. It’s obvious that he wants to win, which is not necessarily true of all of his competition.
The man in this category with the most hardware from pre-Oscar awards shows is another Weinstein candidate: Christoph Waltz. After winning the Globe and the BAFTA, he would seem like the frontrunner. I just can’t imagine him winning for another Tarantino film so soon after Inglourious Basterds. It doesn’t help that his naysayers assert that he gives the same performance in both films. Django Unchained also really underperformed with the Academy, and it's going to be tough for him to prevail over competitors in more well-liked films.
Tommy Lee Jones won SAG, but he didn’t bother showing up to pick up his award (ok, he allegedly had the flu, but I want to see the receipts!). I could see him winning, but again, the support for Lincoln just seems to be gone. It doesn’t help that he has completely stayed out of the campaign circuit, and it’s tough for actors to win without playing the game. Similarly, Alan Arkin and Philip Seymour Hoffman have kept a low profile and don’t seem to be all that interested in the Oscars. Arkin has a shot if Argo turns into a sweeper. Hoffman is probably the most critically acclaimed of the bunch, but the Academy did not respond well to The Master outside of the acting categories.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
This still feels like a coronation for Anne Hathaway, though she may have rubbed voters the wrong way with some poorly received acceptance speeches at the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA. Unfortunately, there isn’t enough heat behind the other nominees to justify an upset. Sally Field is probably in second, and she would be a more credible threat were she not already a two-time Oscar winner. Word on the street is that Silver Linings Playbook fans are voting for it across the board, which means that Jacki Weaver can count on a good chunk of the vote. Considering how little she does in that film and how shocking her nomination was, it would be pretty hilarious if she won. Amy Adams is now on her fourth nomination without a win, but I don’t think anyone really cares. She is the perennial filler nominee. The John Hawkes snub shows what kind of regard the Academy has for The Sessions.
Best Original Screenplay
Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
This is another tough one without a frontrunner. The top three are all divisive, and this would likely be the only “above the line” win any of them would get. Mark Boal won the Writers Guild award for Zero Dark Thirty, but neither Amour nor Django Unchained was eligible there. As I’ve said before, I think Zero Dark Thirty has been the target of too much controversy to get enough widespread support for any Oscar wins. The bulk of that controversy has centered on the accuracy of Boal’s screenplay. However, there is a bit of a sympathy surge for Boal, with many in the industry claiming that the attacks against him from Washington have been excessive and unfair. It could be enough to push him to the win in an open race, but I’m going with Quentin Tarantino. He’s loved and he already has the Globe and the BAFTA under his belt for Django. This is Django’s best shot at a win, and I think its supporters will come through for it here. And again: Harvey Weinstein.
Amour also has a good chance in this category, but this is not a film that has received much praise for its writing. It’s all about Haneke’s direction and Riva’s performance. I’m also a bit taken aback by how negatively many Academy members have been responding to Amour now that they’re actually bothering to watch it. To be fair, most of the voting body is over 60, and this film paints a pretty bleak picture of their near future.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
If Argo is really our Best Picture winner, it has to win something else “above the line,” and this is its best chance. Chris Terrio’s win at the Writers Guild awards solidifies Argo’s status here, but it’s not a lock. David O. Russell won the BAFTA for Silver Linings Playbook in an upset, and I could see that situation repeating itself at the Oscars. Tony Kushner won a ton of critics’ awards for Lincoln, but he was shockingly shut out by the televised awards. I thought he was as locked in as Daniel Day-Lewis, but I have been proven very wrong. Still, he could conceivably win the Oscar.
Best Animated Film
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
This category is more competitive than it usually is thanks to the absence of a universally beloved Pixar film leading the pack. Brave was a critical and commercial disappointment by Pixar standards, but it still made money and got decent reviews. It is the frontrunner by virtue of winning the Globe and BAFTA. The Pixar name still carries a lot of inherent prestige over other animation studios, which will probably push Brave to the win. Wreck-It Ralph triumphed at the Producers Guild and Annie awards, and it was a surprise critical and commercial success. People who see it generally like it, but I’m afraid that the video game motif will cause snobby Academy members to write it off as childish. It’s still a contender for the win. Frankenweenie is the critical darling of the bunch, and it gives the Academy the chance to give an Oscar to Tim Burton. However, the movie was a box office dud, and this category usually goes to moneymakers. The other two don’t have a chance.
Best Foreign Language Film
Amour (Austria)
Kon-Tiki (Norway)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
War Witch (Canada)
Amour looks like the obvious choice, but there is a frontrunner curse in this category. It’s important to keep in mind that this is one of the only categories that is not voted on by the Academy at large. Voters must attend special screenings of the films and prove that they’ve seen all of the nominees. The result is a voting body that is usually quite old and with very conservative tastes. Even foreign language films with widespread Academy support have lost this before (Amelie and Pan’s Labyrinth). The Best Picture nod would lead me to stick with Amour, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a handsomely mounted period piece like Kon-Tiki or A Royal Affair upset.
Best Documentary Feature
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man
There is also a frontrunner curse in this category, but the Academy at large is allowed to vote for the Documentary winner this year for the first time ever. Searching for Sugar Man is the popular choice, though I wonder if it’s too light to win. The rest of these films grapple with very serious issues like AIDS and sexual assault in the military, while Sugar Man is about two fans’ quest to locate their favorite singer. Then again, maybe the film’s levity is actually an asset in contrast to the heavier competition. If the Academy opts for something with more gravitas, it will probably be The Gatekeepers – a film about Israel’s secret security force that has been gaining a lot of last minute buzz.
Best Film Editing
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
This award typically goes to the Best Picture frontrunner, though the bizarre win last year for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo upset that trend. Argo should take this in a walk. Zero Dark Thirty might have been a strong challenger had the torture controversy not boiled over and tarnished the film’s reputation.
Best Cinematography
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
For the technical categories, “best” usually means “most.” Life of Pi is definitely the flashiest nominee, and it looks likely to follow in the footsteps of Avatar and Hugo to win this one. Roger Deakins’ showy and often beautiful work in Skyfall is a possible spoiler, as the man has been nominated 10 times without a win. Unfortunately, the “overdue” card rarely pays off in the technical categories.
Best Production Design
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Miserables
This could really go to any of the nominees besides The Hobbit. I’m going with Les Miserables mostly because it won BAFTA, but it’s also a very grandiose physical production with lots of fabulous sets. The same is also true of Anna Karenina, which won the Art Directors Guild award. However, I am betting against that one simply because the film isn’t as well-liked as Les Miserables is. Life of Pi hasn’t picked up many awards for production design, but I’m tempted to pick it because Avatar, Alice in Wonderland, and Hugo were the last three winners in this category. For these big CGI epics, production design often gets conflated with visual effects. I really wouldn’t be surprised to see it win. Lincoln’s production design has been unanimously praised for its period accuracy, but I don’t think it’s flashy enough to win unless the film miraculously wins Best Picture.
Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Les Miserables
Snow White and the Huntsman
Opulence always wins in this category, so I would not bet against Anna Karenina. Both Snow White movies have a shot to upset. Mirror Mirror was legendary costume designer Eiko Ishioka’s last film before her death, so there might be a sentimental tide in her favor. The costumes are certainly lavish enough to justify it. Snow White and the Huntsman has Colleen Atwood, who has a strong track record at the Oscars. The two Best Picture nominees here are probably a bit too drab to win.
Best Original Score
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
This is another open category, and I could see anything but Anna Karenina winning (though that is my favorite of the nominees). The most sweeping, epic score is usually the safest bet, so Life of Pi looks like a winner. Argo could win in a show of the Academy’s general support for the film, but I don’t know if the music is memorable enough. Skyfall won the BAFTA in a bit of an upset, and this is Thomas Newman’s 11th nomination without a win. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it win. Lincoln is very possibly the legendary John Williams’ last cinematic score, and he is an Oscar darling. It’s one of his less memorable scores, but it’s stately and majestic enough to feel like a winner. This is one of the categories that I feel the least confident about.
Best Original Song
Catching Ice – “Before My Time”
Life of Pi – “Pi’s Lullaby”
Les Miserables – “Suddenly”
Skyfall – “Skyfall”
Ted – “Everybody Needs a Best Friend”
I would be absolutely shocked if Adele lost. The rest of the nominees don’t make any sense. Next stop: EGOT!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
I’m going with Les Miserables here because it’s the only one of these films that the Academy membership seems to actually like. The Hobbit is definitely the showiest nominee, and two of the three Lord of the Rings films won this category. However, I think there’s a bit of Peter Jackson fatigue in the industry, and that series is probably done winning Oscars. It’s laughable that the absurd prosthetics in Hitchcock made the cut over the much more sophisticated makeup in Lincoln.
Best Sound Mixing
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Skyfall
This is always tough to call because the Academy at large doesn’t know the first thing about sound. The loudest movie usually wins, but musicals do well in this category. The Universal PR machine has done a good job of emphasizing the challenges Team Les Miz faced in recording and mixing all of the live vocals in that film, and I think they’ll be rewarded for it. Any of the rest besides Lincoln could upset. When in doubt, voters often pick Best Picture nominees that made it into both sound categories, which bodes well for Argo and Life of Pi. Popular action flicks also have a strong track record in the sound categories, which makes Skyfall a strong contender.
Best Sound Editing
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Any of Argo, Life of Pi, or Skyfall could win this one. Life of Pi seems to be the consensus choice, and I don’t have much of a reason to go against that. This is another category that the average Academy member has no clue how to judge, so they go with something loud or a Best Picture nominee. Life of Pi is both.
Best Visual Effects
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman
Never bet against the Best Picture nominee in this category, even if the other nominees are flashier. In this case, Life of Pi probably has the most elaborate visual effects work of the year, and it’s much more loved as a film than any of the other nominees. It’s one of the easiest calls of the night.
