Grand Prix Final Recap: Pairs and Ice Dance

Beauty is pain.

Pairs

1. Aliona Savchenko/Robin Szolkowy (Germany) – Well it seems I spoke too soon. We might actually have a horse race! The Germans took my advice and took the throw triple axel out of both programs. Lo and behold, they skated two clean programs and took the gold in the Grand Prix Final. I’ve come to accept that the Germans are never going to be pretty, but they’re dynamic and exciting when they’re on. Their Nutcracker long program is still comical to me, as Aliona Savchenko is just not a convincing ballerina. This is a girl who loves to skate in skintight bodysuits to accentuate how ripped she is. Still, the execution was infallible today. This weekend was also the first time they really sold their weird snowflake short program. The costumes are still ridiculous, but that white unitard reminds us that Robin Szolkowy has the best butt in figure skating. Hopefully this is a lesson that their best bet in Sochi is a clean skate rather than impossible difficulty.

2. Tatiana Volosozhar/Maxim Trankov (Russia) – I gasped and spilled my drink when Tatiana Volosozhar went down on a triple salchow in the free skate, and then again on the triple toe. This team has been so flawless all season long that it’s easy to forget they’re human and prone to error. At the same time, I was surprised at how cold their perfect performance in the short program left me. They usually stand out from the field for their technical precision, but in a competition where every team skated a clean short program, I was left wondering what made the Russians so special that they seem to set a new world record with each performance.  True, all of their elements are textbook perfect in a way that we haven’t seen since the great Gordeeva/Grinkov (except for their overhead lifts). However, their performances are a bit soulless compared to the Germans and the top Chinese teams. I’m especially bothered by just how empty that "Jesus Christ Superstar" long program is. You marvel over the height and distance they get on the throw triple loop, and then they just kind of skate around until the next throw. While the Germans don’t exactly succeed in serving Moscow Ballet realness, you can at least see that they’re attempting to create a program. The Russians often seem to be skating through the music until the infamous pose at the end where Tatiana dies for our sins.  There is a lot to admire about this team, but I wasn’t sad to see them lose. Still, they’re the favorites for Sochi, and this loss will be a motivator as they push through to the Olympics.

3. Pang Qing/Tong Jian (China) – I know that I should roll my eyes every time someone skates to Les Miz.  However, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t dabbing my eyes with Kleenex this morning as I watched Pang and Tong throw down a flawless long program. These two have earned the right to skate to whatever they damn well please at this point in their careers, but they somehow uncovered nuance and emotional resonance in “I Dreamed a Dream” that I thought had been lost to the ages after we all had to watch Anne Hathaway’s nose run in close-up for three minutes. Both of Pang/Tong’s programs almost make you forget you’re watching an obstacle course of required elements and take you back to the simpler times of the 6.0 system. I worry for them, as they’ve had issues with peaking over the past few years. At their age, it’s dangerous to be too hot at the Grand Prix Final when they have to make it all the way to the Olympics in top shape. Still, they have to be considered the bronze medal favorites with the way they skated this weekend in Fukuoka. If they land everything in Sochi, I think the judges will do what they have to do with the program components to get them to the podium.

4. Peng Cheng/Zhang Hao (China) – I had low expectations for this team coming into the Olympic season, but I must say that I’ve been incredibly surprised and impressed. They’re an oddly matched couple who have learned how to use their differences to their advantage. She got so much height on the quad twist in the long program that it looked like she was heading straight for the ceiling. You could hear the audience gasp. Their overhead lifts are the class of the field, no doubt thanks to his incredible core strength and her limber physique. They’re still developing artistically. It seems like every Chinese skater is required to do a “Yellow River Concerto” program at some point in their career to learn how to interpret music. Peng seemed very lost at sea last season, but she’s really starting to come into her own as an engaging presence on the ice. They’ve made a very strong case at the Grand Prix Final to be included on the Chinese Olympic team. I’d probably still take Sui/Han as the second Chinese pair, but it’s going to be a difficult decision.

5. Meagan Duhamel/Eric Radford (Canada) – Things seemed to be looking up for Meagan and Eric when they skated a clean short program that put them within spitting distance of the Grand Prix Final podium. Then the long program happened. I don’t even know where to begin anymore. The Alice in Wonderland soundtrack does not lend itself to a figure skating program. There are some nice choreographic moments, like when he creates a “rabbit hole” for her to jump through, but the program never goes anywhere thematically. They’re not a lyrical team, and they have even less business trying to do ballet than the Germans do. However, they’ve never looked so out of their depth artistically than they do this year. I would honestly go back to last season’s “Angel” free skate if I were them. The more serious problem is in execution. Meagan’s two falls in the long program on side-by-side triples are sadly indicative of how this season is going for them. They should take a good hard look at the value added of those side-by-side triple lutzes. Even if they both land them, they tend to get underrotation calls from the technical panel. Might it be worth watering down the technical content a bit? For a team that builds its competitive advantage on technical elements, execution is absolutely key to racking up those points. I fear that the Olympic podium is looking unlikely for them.

6. Kirsten Moore-Towers/Dylan Moscovitch (Canada) – Kirsten and Dylan had a bit of a rude awakening in Fukuoka. Their programs are a bit conservative and simple, but they’ve achieved strong results this season through clean performances. Imagine their dismay when they ended up dead last after the short program, in which every pair was nearly flawless. They couldn’t have received a clearer message from the judges about where they really stand among the top pairs. Mistakes from Duhamel/Radford gave them an opening to move up in the long program, but both Kirsten and Dylan made costly errors on side-by-side jumps. Kirsten and Dylan have elements that make them stand out from the pack, particularly their overhead lifts. At the same time, it’s clear that they need to rely on the mistakes of others to get near the Olympic podium. In the run-up to Sochi, they need to focus on consistency and not letting their own mistakes bury them in the standings in an exciting and competitive Olympic field.

Ice Dance

1. Meryl Davis/Charlie White (United States) – The gauntlet has officially been thrown down for Sochi. The Canadians put up an admirable fight, but Meryl and Charlie have made it clear that they’re not losing to anyone this season. The short dance was likely too close for comfort, as the Canadians set a new world record with their best performance of the season. The Americans were a bit tighter than they’ve been, with obvious mistakes on their twizzle sequence. The judges gave them the benefit of the doubt and put them in first place by .02. Meryl and Charlie rebounded by delivering their best free dance of the season. The “Scheherazade” program is perfectly engineered to flourish in high-stakes competitions like the Grand Prix Final, with intricate choreography and gravity-defying lifts that build in intensity to a conclusion that dares the audience to stay seated. I said before that this program will always win over the crowd and the judges, and today was no exception. It’s certainly the most exciting and flashy of the free dances, and I think it’s going to play great on television during the Olympics. You can tell that Meryl and Charlie are well-trained and hungry for Olympic glory.

2. Tessa Virtue/Scott Moir (Canada) – The biggest surprise of the Grand Prix Final to me was how much better the Canadians looked than they have all season. Particularly in the short dance, I saw a crispness to their technical elements that had been missing all year. I’m still not in love with the Louis Armstrong/Ella Fitzgerald short dance, but they were really selling me on it this weekend. Meryl and Charlie are the superior skaters, but Tessa and Scott are the better dancers. There was a lightness and ease to the Canadians’ short dance performance in Fukuoka that the Americans lacked. The free dance is starting to come together, and I almost love it. They are ethereal and contemplative where the Americans are passionate and aggressive. You could really make a case for either team, though I imagine Tessa and Scott don’t play as well to the layperson. My problem is still that I’ve seen it all before from them. Tessa looks regal and majestic, Scott presents her lovingly, they share a romantic glance, she stands on his leg and we marvel at her extension. The only exciting bit is when they pledge allegiance at the end, and we’re left to wonder what it all means. I really loved their “Carmen” free dance last year, when Tessa got to be sexy, and Scott was groping and growling at her. I have a feeling they’ll continue to improve and I’ll continue to warm up to their programs, but I still think they’re going to fall short in Sochi.

3. Nathalie Pechalat/Fabian Bourzat (France) – In the Battle for Bronze, the French have a temporary lead after the Grand Prix Final. They almost blew it in the short dance, where Fabian appeared to be sleepwalking. Their flat performance had them in fifth heading into the free dance, and ice dance is not a discipline where one expects much movement in the rankings between segments. They rebounded pretty spectacularly in the free dance, where they were certainly the best of the teams that have been deemed politically acceptable for the Olympic bronze. They’re not in the same league as the top North American dance teams technically, but I’ll be damned if they aren’t often more entertaining. Their “Little Price” free dance is quickly becoming one of my favorite things this Olympic season. It is wonderfully French with the bizarre costumes and the Cirque du Soleil music rather than the film soundtrack. In the best European ice dance tradition, they actually tell a story through the dance. One also has to admire their creative programming, particularly the jaw-dropping “flower” lift at the top of the free dance. If we’re going to force a European dance team on the Olympic podium, it might as well be Nathalie and Fabian. The real story will shake out at the European Championships when Elena Ilinykh and Nikita Katsalapov are back in the mix.

4. Ekaterina Bobrova/Dmitri Soloviev (Russia) – I just can’t. I don’t know what else to say. I’ll give it to them they have impressive speed and ice coverage. Their free dance concept is creative, for better or worse. They have no business coming in higher than sixth here. These programs are choreographically empty and junior-ish, and they rely on easy open holds to generate speed. They lack the precision and attention to detail of the other top teams on their technical elements. Some of the lifts are certainly difficult, but never once does Ekaterina hit an appealing position. This girl has in the past been compared unfavorably to a slab of meat being dragged around the ice. Who thought it was a good idea to dress her up like Marilyn Monroe in the short dance? While I can appreciate their bizarre free dance choreography (honestly, if you have a problem with weird European performance art, ice dance is not the sport for you), I have no idea what it has to do with the music. The emperor has no clothes. I can’t remember the last time so much political maneuvering happened to aid such an undeserving team. If he hadn’t fallen, I bet they would have won bronze. I can already feel my rage coming for Sochi.

5. Kaitlyn Weaver/Andrew Poje (Canada) – The fix is in. Kaitlyn and Andrew should accept that fifth place is likely their ceiling in Sochi and focus on pushing through to 2018. I can’t believe what is happening to this team. Not only are they getting screwed over in their program components. Now they are the favorite punching bag of the technical panel, who analyze all of their technical elements with a fine-toothed comb. It’s a shame that such bold-faced cheating still happens under the allegedly objective IJS. I could maybe understand Kaitlyn and Andrew finishing behind the French in the free dance, but not behind the Russians. There is just no comparison in terms of passion and expression, intricacy of choreography, innovation of lifts, balance between both partners. The Russians have the advantage in speed, but not much else. It’s ok, I will cry by myself in a corner during the Olympics and lament about how nobody understands how amazing “Maria de Buenos Aires” is.

6. Anna Cappellini/Luca Lanotte (Italy) – The Italians should also kiss their Olympic podium hopes goodbye after the Grand Prix Final. I can’t say that this is a great injustice. Their programs are nice and they’ve been skating well, but they lack the spark of the other top teams (Russians included). I am a skating uber-fan, so when I zone out and start texting during your free dance, there is a problem. They have a strong connection, and they’re very charming performers. The “Barber of Seville” free dance just never goes anywhere. I like the cutesy ending, but I found myself wondering if it was ever going to end at the two minute mark. They don’t do anything badly – maybe their edges could be a bit deeper on the step sequences. They also don’t do anything spectacularly. If I were them, I might consider scrapping this and going back to last season’s “Carmen” free dance. Now that Tessa and Scott aren’t skating to the same music, they might score better. 

The Road to Sochi: The Pairs and Ice Dance Contenders in the Grand Prix Final

We continue our look at the Grand Prix Final with a preview of the upcoming pairs' and ice dance competitions and what it all means for Sochi. Enjoy!

Pairs

Tatiana Volosozhar/Maxim Trankov (Russia) – While the Olympics are typically full of surprises, the writing is already on the wall in the pairs’ field. Volosozhar/Trankov are winning the Olympic gold medal. It won’t be undeserved. They’re just that much better than the rest of the field. Their "Jesus Christ Superstar" long program may offend some more delicate sensibilities (she gets crucified at the end!), but their technical elements are unimpeachable. The Grand Prix Final will be just one more step on the road to total domination in Sochi.

Aliona Savchenko/Robin Szolkowy (Germany) – The Germans have tried in vain to keep up with the Russians, but it has become painfully obvious that the Olympic gold is a long shot. This year, their strategy has been to win on technical content by doing a throw triple axel in the short and long programs. They have yet to hit that element cleanly in competition, and their other elements have suffered due to their triple axel obsession. Their coach, everyone’s favorite Stasi informant Ingo Steur, has attempted a smear campaign in the media, claiming that the Russians’ program components scores should be below the Germans’. If Grand Prix scores are any indication, international judges are not buying it. Aliona and Robin should embrace that they are in it for silver and focus on skating cleanly. They may discover in Fukuoka that not even the silver medal is guaranteed.

Pang Qing/Tong Jian (China) – The reigning Olympic silver medalists have skated in every World Championships since 1999(!). Over the course of their competitive career, they have evolved from tricksters to the preeminent artists of the pairs’ field. As this is their farewell season(?), sentiment is probably on their side, and this competition could establish them as the Olympic bronze medal favorites. However, technical elements are an issue, as they are both over 30 and struggle increasingly to make it to the end of each season without injury. It is important that they focus on pacing themselves and peaking at the Olympics, even if that means sacrificing a strong result at the Grand Prix Final.

Kirsten Moore-Towers/Dylan Moscovitch (Canada) – No Canadian pair has entered the Olympics as a legitimate medal threat since 2002, but this year has two strong Canadian contenders in the Grand Prix Final. Kirsten and Dylan have gained fans this year with their elegance and refinement. Their programs aren’t as technically difficult as the other top teams’, but they rack up points on execution. When they’re on, they score very well internationally. However, their shaky performance at Rostelecom Cup showed unexpected mental cracks. Without flashy elements to throw down, Kirsten and Dylan have to rely on polish and consistency to make a run for the Olympic podium. A top three finish at the Grand Prix Final would put them on the right path.

Meagan Duhamel/Eric Radford (Canada) – The other top Canadian pair couldn’t be more different from Moore-Towers/Moscovitch. The reigning World bronze medalists are all about flashy and difficult technical elements. Meagan and Eric are experts at working the IJS code of points, designing programs to maximize their scoring potential. The result isn’t always pleasant, but those side-by-side triple lutzes are impressive when they hit them. The problem this season has been execution. Much like Max Aaron and his multi-quad free skate, there is good reason to worry that Meagan and Eric’s technical content is too difficult to perform cleanly in competition. While they did manage to make the Grand Prix Final, their results were disappointing for a team that is gunning for the Olympic silver. They put everything they have into their performance when it counts, but their program components are still weak compared to the other top teams. I admire their intensity, but it might behoove them to loosen up a bit between now and Sochi. A medal at the Grad Prix Final may be a tough get with the way they’ve been skating lately.

Peng Cheng/Zhang Hao (China) – Much like Pang/Tong, Zhang Hao has been around forever and even won the Olympic silver in 2006 with Zhang Dan (no relation). His new partner, however, is only 16. These two are a classic “gorilla and flea” pair, but their size difference makes for some awesome lifts, twists, and throws. Peng/Zhang have only been together for two seasons, and it often shows in their connection and synchronicity. They definitely benefited from the mistakes of others to qualify for the Grand Prix Final, but this is a great chance for them to gain more experience skating together on a big stage. They don’t have much of a shot at a medal here, but a strong performance could make a strong case for the Chinese fed to take them to the Olympics over Sui/Han in the second Chinese pairs’ spot.

Ice Dance

Meryl Davis/Charlie White (United States) – In a drama-filled ice dance season on the Grand Prix, one thing is very clear: Davis/White are the favorites for the Olympic gold. One almost has to worry that they’re peaking too soon with how fabulously they skated in both of their Grand Prix events. From a technical standpoint, no one can touch the speed and power of their skating or the athleticism of their lifts and spins. They possess an innate sense of musicality that keeps them rooted in the “dance” aspect of the sport even when they’re performing insane acrobatics. Critics have called their “Scheherazade” free dance calculated and conservative, but I think it's the perfect vehicle to win over the judges and the audience in Sochi. This weekend will be telling as they face off against their arch rivals and training mates Virtue/Moir for the first time this season. Meryl and Charlie have scored better throughout the season, but nothing is set in stone until they go head-to-head. Given the political nature of dance, Meryl and Charlie will be difficult to beat in Sochi if they continue their winning streak in Fukuoka.

Tessa Virtue/Scott Moir (Canada) – Tessa and Scott will certainly keep the Americans on their toes through Sochi. The reigning Olympic champions did not opt to continue through 2014 just to lose to their closest competitors in the end. Meryl and Charlie have thoroughly surpassed the Canadians technically (in no small part thanks to Tessa Virtue’s persisting leg pains), but Tessa and Scott have the reputation as the superior artists, and that goes a long way in the world of ice dance. The Canadians certainly have superior body line and extension, and they have palpable sexual chemistry that the Americans decidedly lack. However, their Olympic programs are a bit of a snooze. The free dance is beautiful, but it’s their 2010 gold medal program repackaged with different music. The Grand Prix Final could very well be the Olympic decider. If Tessa and Scott want to repeat in Sochi, they need to find a way to beat Meryl and Charlie in Fukuoka.

Ekaterina Bobrova/Dmitri Soloviev (Russia) – The most exciting race in ice dance is the battle for Olympic bronze. With five legitimate contenders who have been scoring very close to each other throughout the Grand Prix, this could be the biggest nail-biter in Olympic ice dance in years. Four of those teams will be at the Grand Prix Final, which could be our first indication of how Sochi will shake out. As the reigning World bronze medalists and the top-ranked Russian team, Bobrova/Soloviev are likely the favorites. A controversial win at Rostelecom Cup showed that they can expect very kind treatment on home ice in Sochi. However, most observers agree that they’re the weakest team in this deep field. Their speed is impressive, but they lack the control and precision of the other top teams. He is a strong skater, but her posture is unforgivably poor for a competitive ice dancer. Their “dying bird” free dance is just plain bizarre, and it has nothing to do with the Vivaldi and Mozart music they’re skating to. Still, it’s obvious that they have the Russian political machine behind them. If they wind up on the podium at the Grand Prix Final, the race for Olympic bronze may be over. 

Nathalie Pechalat/Fabian Bourzat (France) – If there’s any political machine that matches the intensity of the Russians’, it is the French’s. Let’s not forget the kind of damage those two skating feds caused together at the 2002 Olympics. After their disappointing sixth place finish at the 2013 World Championships, French political mastermind Didier Gailhaguet shipped Nathalie and Fabian off to Igor Shpiliband, a coach renowned as much for his political pull as for his technical prowess. The gamble seemed to pay off early in the season, when the French soundly defeated Bobrova/Soloviev at Cup of China. However, they finished behind Ilinykh/Katsalapov on home ice at Trophee Eric Bompard. In the strictly hierarchial world of ice dance, it is difficult to ascertain where Nathalie and Fabian stand. They’re skating better than they have in years, and their Bob Fosse short dance is one of my favorite programs anyone is skating in any discipline this year. I can even appreciate their “Little Prince” free dance as a nod to the more theatrical ice dance style of the '80s-'90s. They are France’s only real shot at a figure skating medal in Sochi, and it’s hard to imagine that Didier will let that bronze medal slip away without a fight. It will be interesting to see where they score in relation to the Russians at the Grand Prix Final, as that could be a sign of things to come in Sochi.

Kaitlyn Weaver/Andrew Poje (Canada) – Kaitlyn and Andrew got thoroughly railroaded at Rostelecom Cup in order to give the gold to the Russians. They rightfully won the free dance, but the technical panel buried them so thoroughly in the short dance that they didn’t have a chance to finish higher than second overall. The second-ranked Canadians have been knocking on the door of the Worlds podium for the last three years, but international judges are not keen on letting another North American ice dance sweep happen for the foreseeable future. I think they’re clearly the third-best ice dance team in the world right now. If they’re ever going to move ahead of the top European teams, this Grand Prix Final on neutral territory is their chance. If not, then it’s not the end of the world. I fully expect them to emerge as a World champion threat after Tessa and Scott retire. In the meantime, let’s enjoy their masterpiece “Maria de Buenos Aires” free dance and lament about how underappreciated they are.

Anna Cappellini/Luca Lanotte (Italy) – It’s tough to gage where Anna and Luca stand, as they’ve only faced Davis/White of the top ice dance teams so far this season. They narrowly missed the podium at last year’s World Championships, and many (including yours truly) believe they should have won bronze. The Italians are strong performers, and I appreciate their graceful and elegant style. However, they’re probably one of the weaker top teams in terms of pure blade-to-ice skills. Their “Barber of Seville” free dance is classy and refined, but it lacks the punch of the other top teams’ programs. I fear that they’ll be lost and the shuffle and come in last here no matter how they skate. They’re also likely to suffer politically, as coach Igor Shpiliband now has the French team to try and push for Olympic bronze. Much like Weaver/Poje, the Italians will likely have their real moment in the spotlight when some of the other top teams retire post-Sochi.

The Road to Sochi: Men's and Ladies' Contenders in the Grand Prix Final

After our look at the Olympic contenders who will not be at the Grand Prix Final, let's dive in and analyze the Men's and Ladies' fields for this weekend's competition in Fukuoka.

Men

Patrick Chan (Canada) – The three-time reigning World Champion is without a doubt the odds-on Olympic favorite. Patrick is the kind of skater that the current judging system was made for. He checks all the boxes of what the ideal male skater should be, and he typically builds up such a lead in his program components score that he can afford a mistake or two and still win World titles. His success has been so controversial in the skating world that fans coined the term “Chanflation” to explain the astronomical scores he gets even when he’s not skating his best. No one is questioning his two wins on the Grand Prix circuit this year thanks to his truly stunning performances, but his win at the World Championships last year over a cleaner Denis Ten still leaves a bad taste in skating fans’ mouths. His oftentimes arrogant demeanor in interviews hasn’t helped his case much. Patrick may find that he has a target on his back in Sochi, as the International Skating Union likely wants to avoid another controversial outcome at the Olympics. The Grand Prix Final is not as important for Patrick’s Olympic prospects as it is for others’. He needs to focus on peaking in Sochi, as international judges may be done giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Tatsuki Machida (Japan) – Surprisingly, the only man besides Chan to win both of his Grand Prix events was a skater who has never even been to the World Championships. Tatsuki Machida has struggled for recognition in a crowded Japanese men’s field, and this might be the year he pulls it off. There isn’t anything particularly remarkable about his skating. He has nice edges and a consistent quad toe, but he tends to leave me cold. However, he has proven himself to be a reliable competitor, which is a strong asset in an increasingly unpredictable international men’s field. A strong showing at the Grand Prix Final would help Machida’s case to make the Japanese Olympic team immensely. Making it to the Olympics will be his biggest hurdle. Once he’s there, he will be a default medal contender by virtue of emerging from the bloodbath of Japanese Nationals.

Yuzuru Hanyu (Japan) – Teen phenom Yuzuru Hanyu has amassed an army of screaming Japanese fangirls in his two years on the senior international scene, and he seems likely to be one of the international breakout stars of the Olympics. He’s a threat for the Olympic gold medal when he’s on, but he’s yet to skate a clean long program this season. At this point I would chalk it up to nerves and youthful inexperience. The Grand Prix Final will be an important test for Hanyu, as he faces off against the best in the world on home ice surrounded by intense media scrutiny. This will be a taste of Olympic pressure that he will need to get used to before Sochi. He lost to Patrick Chan at both of his Grand Prix events, but a win here could be a confidence booster heading in to the Olympics. If he’s ever going to beat Chan this season, Japan is the place to do it.

Maxim Kovtun (Russia) – Russia has struggled to find an internationally competitive men’s skater since Evgeny Plushenko retired (again) in 2010. The situation became so dire that Plushenko is attempting yet another comeback. Kovtun’s senior debut season was less than auspicious, as his poor performance at the 2013 World Championships ensured that only one Russian man would qualify for the Olympics. However, he’s more than proven his worth this year with two silver medals on the Grand Prix. Kovtun is still comparatively weak in this Grand Prix Final field in terms of skating skills and presentation. He also has endurance issues in the long program that suggest a lack of run-throughs in practice. However, he got a nice home ice program components score boost at Rostelecom Cup that suggests he’ll be just fine in Sochi. I doubt he’ll be a medal threat in the Grand Prix Final, but a respectable performance here should ensure that the Russian fed sends him to the Olympics over Plushenko.

Yan Han (China) – Here we have another teen phenom who had a great showing in his debut senior Grand Prix season. Yan pulled off an upset win at Cup of China and then fought through a nasty fever at Trophee Eric Bompard to sew up his spot in the Grand Prix Final. Like Kovtun, he’s a bit lacking in refinement compared to the other top men, but his jump arsenal is impressive, and he’s already proven himself to be a tough competitor. As the first real Chinese men’s contender in quite some time, expectations and pressure are very high on Yan. The Grand Prix Final will be a test of his mental toughness heading into the Olympics. A medal will be a longshot in this field, so Yan’s goal should be two strong performances in a high-profile event.

Nobunari Oda (Japan) – The beneficiary of Daisuke Takahashi’s untimely injury is yet another contender for the Japanese Olympic team. Nobunari Oda has been on the international scene since 2005, seemingly entering every World Championships as a medal contender but never quite pulling it off. He’s struggled enormously since the 2010 Olympics, and he didn’t even advance to Worlds the last two seasons. He’s made an impressive comeback this season, but it’s still going to be tough for him to make the Olympic team. He has the programs and technical content to do very well here if he hits. If he can beat Machida and/or Hanyu, it would help his case immensely in the eyes of the Japanese fed. I’m rooting for him because of the amazing facial expressions he serves during his step sequences. The world needs to experience Oda “O” face at the Olympics.

Ladies

Mao Asada (Japan) – After the bitter disappointment of finishing second to her eternal rival Yuna Kim at the 2010 Olympics, Mao decided to push through to Sochi for another shot at Olympic gold. She struggled through the 2011 and 2012 seasons with a jump technique change and the death of her mother. She made a triumphant return to form last year, and she’s put in her best performances in years on the Grand Prix circuit this season. Mao is the gold medal favorite for the Grand Prix Final, but Yuna’s impending Olympic comeback puts her Olympic gold prospects in doubt. Mao-chan needs to dominate the competition in Fukuoka if she wants to be taken seriously as a gold medal contender in Sochi. Her nemesis Shin Amano is the technical caller this weekend, so she needs to fully rotate those triples lest her technical ability come into serious question again before the Olympics.

Julia Lipnitskaia (Russia) – If Mao Asada doesn’t win this weekend, the gold medal will likely go to Russian wunderkind Julia Lipnitskaia. Julia has impressed during the Grand Prix with her inhuman flexibility and competitive consistency. She’s been rather brilliantly packaged with programs that make her seem like a lady but still embrace her youth. While she lacks the ice coverage and speed of some of the older top ladies like Mao Asada and Carolina Kostner, her program components scores have increased exponentially over the course of this season. It looks like the international judges are ready to put her on the podium in Sochi. The Grand Prix Final will be the first time Julia faces off against Mao, though it will be on Japanese ice with a very pro-Mao crowd. Still, if Julia manages to win here, it’s not much of a leap to see her winning the gold in Sochi.

Ashley Wagner (United States) – Ashley Wagner had another strong Grand Prix season, but I fear for her chances in Fukuoka. She is hungry for an Olympic medal, and this contest will be make or break for her. She needs to be on the podium at this contest to have a prayer of medaling in Sochi, and it would be even better if she could win the silver. However, she will not beat Mao Asada in Japan, and I don’t envy anyone who has to contend with four Russians in the same contest. The Russian political machine is strong this year, and Ashley is the easiest skater to bury in this field in order to prop up the Russian girls. Ashley has become one of the most consistent jumpers in the ladies’ field, and she’s really selling the choreography in both of her programs in ways that make my heart happy. She’s comparatively weaker in spins and footwork, and that’s what could keep her from getting the results she needs here. I’m lighting a candle and praying tonight.

Anna Pogorilaya (Russia) – The biggest surprise in this banner year for Russian ladies was Anna Pogorilaya’s gold medal performance at Cup of China. Suddenly, she became a contender for the already hotly contested Russian Olympic team. Anna is a powerful jumper and a gorgeous spinner, but her skating skills are probably the weakest of the ladies’ Grand Prix Final field. I ultimately think she’ll sit the Olympics out because her scoring potential is the lowest of the top Russian ladies, but she could put herself in a stronger position in Fukuoka by beating Adelina Sotnikova. The girl is a fierce competitor, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her throw down two clean programs and beat some bigger names.

Adelina Sotnikova (Russia) – Adelina lucked out on the Grand Prix by facing a weak field at Cup of China that allowed her to take the silver medal with a messy performance. She’s one of the more hit-or-miss of the top ladies, but international judges love her when she’s on. She may have a tough time here with a strict technical caller, as her jumps are always a bit suspect. Still, she’s a medal threat in Fukuoka if she hits. The Grand Prix Final is essential for Adelina to secure her Olympic spot. Unfortunately, she was part of the 2013 Russian Worlds team that only secured two ladies’ slots for Sochi, so there is some residual ill will towards her in the Russian fed. Lipnitskaia is probably a lock, so Adelina should focus on soundly beating Anna Pogorilaya to prove her competitive worth. Taking down Ashley Wagner would be icing on the cake.

Elena Radionova (Russia) – At age 14, the reigning Junior World champion is too young to compete at the Olympics. That didn’t stop her from making noise on her first crack at the Senior Grand Prix and blocking some Olympic contenders from the Grand Prix Final. There are no expectations for Elena in Fukuoka, but she definitely can’t be counted out. That girl has scary Tara Lipinski competitive instincts. Her program components scores will be the lowest of this field, but you just know she’s going to hit the technical content. Though she obviously doesn’t figure into the Olympic picture, she has the potential to shake the confidence of the top contenders, just like 15 year-old Mao Asada did when she won the Grand Prix Final in 2005.