2014 Oscar Predictions

It's that time of year again, folks. I almost forgot about the impending Oscar ceremony thanks to the emotional trauma of figure skating in Sochi, but the awards season that refused to die is finally coming to a close. I honestly checked out a bit after Oprah was knocked out of contention, but here is how I see Sunday night shaking out. I am not including the shorts because no1curr.

Best Picture

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

The Wolf of Wall Street

I can safely say that this is the most bizarre Best Picture race I’ve seen in all my years of Oscar watching. 12 Years a Slave makes sense on paper. It’s the most critically acclaimed film of the year, it won the Globe and the BAFTA, and it oozes importance and gravitas. However, its overall awards season performance has been a bit lackluster. Its Best Picture win at the Golden Globes came at the end of a long evening that looked like a complete 12 Years a Slave shutout, and its only other win at the BAFTAs was for Best Actor. It hasn’t won much from the industry awards other than tying Gravity for the big prize from the Producers Guild, and it was snubbed by nearly every major critics’ awards group despite superlative reviews. Even with the Academy, it missed seemingly slam-dunk nominations in tech categories like Cinematography and Score, making it only the third-most nominated film of the year. It almost feels like all the film’s recognition has been begrudging at best.

It’s impossible to deny that there is passionate support for 12 Years a Slave. You will see it every time someone dares to criticize any aspect of the film on the internet. I am unsure how much of this translates to the industry. Even six months after 12 Years a Slave was deemed the Oscar frontrunner at the Telluride film festival, industry trades report that some Academy voters are outright refusing to watch the film. Fox Searchlight has been playing hardball for the win, but the heavy-handed “It’s time!” campaign will likely rub some the wrong way. Oscar voters tend to show resistance when they feel obligated to vote for something – look no further than last year’s preachy campaign for Lincoln that was ultimately a big fat bust.

My gut still says that 12 Years a Slave will win Best Picture and only one or two other awards. Though it hasn’t been a barnstorming success this Oscar season, nothing else has managed to take its crown. Gravity has been the closest, and it will likely have the biggest awards haul on Oscar night. It is an international box office smash that appeals to the Academy’s broad base of craftsmen. Is it a Best Picture movie? Despite the critical acclaim, I’m inclined to say no. At the Globes, BAFTAs, and even the Critics’ Choice Awards, Gravity was the big winner all night until it lost Best Picture to 12 Years a Slave in the end. There is something preventing these voters from granting Gravity the big prize even if they’re voting for it in seven other categories. The exception is the Producers Guild, which mimics the Academy’s process of requiring voters to rank the Best Picture nominees. Gravity was able to tie 12 Years a Slave there, which suggests that it benefits from a preferential voting system. It may not be everyone’s favorite film, but it is probably top three for the bulk of Oscar voters. 12 Years a Slave may have more number one votes, but some voters are probably marking that down in last place. In the current Best Picture system, the consensus choice wins. Could that be Gravity? It will be a nail-biter until the envelope is opened.

Or could it be American Hustle? After David O. Russell’s latest overperformed on Oscar nominations morning, I thought it would probably win Best Picture. However, it has failed to upset 12 Years a Slave or Gravity for any of the other big industry awards. It took the Ensemble Cast prize from SAG, but that is likely because of how A-list it is. Still, it’s worth noting that the Academy responded better to this film than any other group did. The last three Best Picture winners have been very light and audience-friendly. American Hustle definitely fits the Argo mold much better than its two closest competitors. I would guess Hustle is in third place, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it win.

The other nominees don’t stand a chance. Moving on….

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

Alexander Payne, Nebraska

David O. Russell, American Hustle

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Logic dictates against predicting a split between Best Picture and Best Director. When you look back at Oscar history, those two awards share a startlingly strong correlation. Indeed, it seems as if Oscar voters just pick the same movie for both categories. Last year was an obvious exception thanks to Ben Affleck’s shocking snub, but once again it seems that the Best Picture and Best Director races have become completely separated. Alfonso Cuaron simply hasn’t lost anything major all year, including the all-important Directors Guild award. This seems to be one of those cases where the director’s virtuosic visual accomplishment is undeniable. I'll be surprised if Cuaron loses whether or not Gravity wins Best Picture.

The only real alternative here is Steve McQueen. His narrative is strong, as he would be the first black filmmaker to win the Best Director Oscar. It stands to reason that if 12 Years a Slave is really going to pull out that Best Picture win in the end, McQueen is going to win a significant chunk of the vote. He has even reluctantly played the campaign game, though I think his grumpiness has hurt his cause when compared to the effortless charisma of Alfonso Cuaron. Nearly every major awards body has been fine snubbing McQueen while awarding his film. I think the Academy will do the same.

David O. Russell is bound to win someday as long as he keeps getting his entire cast nominated for Oscars every time he makes a movie. It’s important to note that venerated actor’s directors get a lot of cred in the actor-heavy Academy. Although Russell has tirelessly worked the campaign circuit (while sometimes putting his foot in his mouth re: 12 Years a Slave), Cuaron will likely be too strong to overcome unless American Hustle really is our Best Picture winner.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Between the runaway success of “True Detective” and the wild overperformance of Dallas Buyers Club on Oscar nominations morning, it is clear we are living through the McConnaisance. After he won the Globe and the SAG, it is difficult to imagine Matthew McConaughey losing the Oscar. He is simply the right actor in the right role at the right time.

Chiwetel Ejiofor could prove to be a strong challenger, especially on the heels of his BAFTA win. As the sympathetic lead of a possible Best Picture winner, he can likely count on votes from the film’s fans. He’s so integral to that film that I can’t imagine someone naming 12 Years a Slave his number one of the year and then not voting for Chiwetel Ejiofor. EJiofor has been pounding the pavement all Oscar season for this win, but the momentum simply seems to be in McConaughey’s favor.

There are some in the Oscar pundit world still trying to make the case for Leonardo DiCaprio, but it is clearly not happening at this point. I just don’t think anyone in Hollywood truly believes that he is overdue for an Oscar. He is only 40, and Paul Newman and Al Pacino had to wait much longer than that for their pity Oscars. The heartless bastards in the Academy even let Richard Burton and Peter O’Toole die without winning. It’s just not happening this year, though I will always enjoy Leo’s desperate campaigning. He really has been everywhere all season.

Speaking of desperate campaigning, it is probably unwise to completely rule out a Bruce Dern upset. His chances are slim, but there is a strong sympathy push behind him. Let’s see if the old white man vote prevails!

Best Actress

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

This isn’t really worth discussing, as Cate Blanchett is not going to lose. She seems to have escaped the Woody Allen controversy unscathed, and she has won literally everything all year. Poor Amy Adams really is the new Glenn Close.

The real winner is Sandra Bullock, who has reportedly pocketed $70 million to date for Gravity thanks to some brilliant pre-filming negotiations. Sisters are doing it for themselves!

Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

The unthinkable has happened. Sorry Claire Danes, but Jared Leto will be the first “My So-Called Life” alum to take the Oscar. He won the Globe and the SAG, and it is clear that the Academy loved Dallas Buyers Club more than any other awards group. Everything about his performance is pure Oscar catnip.

Barkhad Abdi rather shockingly won the BAFTA, but that organization responded more enthusiastically to Captain Phillips than the Academy did. Still, he has to be considered the only realistic spoiler. Bradley Cooper is a solid number three, and he’ll probably win one of these days.

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

This is one of the hardest categories to call, and I’m still unsure of which way to go. There is a strong case to be made for both Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong’o. J-Law is still the undisputed Queen of Hollywood a year after her first Oscar win. She chews through the scenery and steals every scene in American Hustle. It’s the kind of performance that has a long history of success in Oscar’s Supporting Actress category: think Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny and Mira Sorvino in Mighty Aphrodite. Lawrence has been virtually absent from the campaign circuit thanks to a demanding shooting schedule for the new Hunger Games movie, but that didn’t stop her from winning the Globe and the BAFTA. American Hustle has four acting nominations, and it’s tough imagine the film losing all four of those. Lawrence is the film’s only real shot at an acting win, and this is a film that actors really love. Had she not just won last year, I think she’d be the obvious winner.

Lupita Nyong’o is an appealing choice, if only because 12 Years a Slave has to win something besides Best Picture. She won the SAG and has been everywhere this awards season charming all of the industry elites. She even melted Anna Wintour’s cold heart at NY Fashion Week. Where Lawrence provides comedic relief, Nyong’o suffers beautifully in an impossibly sympathetic role. I didn’t think much of her performance, but it seems many in the industry have really responded to her work. This will be another down-to-the wire nail-biter, and I can’t confidently call it either way. My gut still says Lawrence, so I am going with that.

There is even some last minute buzz for June Squibb, which almost makes sense given the widespread love for Nebraska. It would be a bit bizarre given how the season has played out, but stranger things have happened. After all, Marcia Gay Harden has an Oscar for a movie no one saw. I am still bitter about Oprah’s snub.

Best Original Screenplay

American Hustle

Blue Jasmine

Dallas Buyers Club

Her

Nebraska

This will be another nail-biter, though I’m feeling more and more confident that American Hustle will take it. Though there are other more traditionally “screenwriter”-y choices here, it’s the most popular film in the category. That’s usually enough considering the Academy-at-large is voting for this. It also helps that David O. Russell has yet to win an Oscar, and this is an easy way to reward him, as he is likely not winning Best Director. I think his BAFTA win signifies a shift in momentum in favor of American Hustle.

If Russell loses, it will likely be to Spike Jonze for Her. This category has a long history of awarding quirky and offbeat scripts, and Her is about as original as it gets for the Oscars. Its strong nominations performance indicates widespread Academy support, and Jonze won the Globe and the Writers Guild award. Spike Jonze is another popular yet Oscar-less filmmaker, so this could also be a makeup prize for him.

I also wouldn’t be shocked to see Nebraska win this. That is another film that got more nominations than anyone expected it to, and it would be odd to see it leave empty-handed. Those who really follow the race know that Bob Nelson tried for years to get this movie made, and Oscar loves a Cinderella story. Those who don’t follow the race think Alexander Payne wrote it, and everyone loves him.

Best Adapted Screenplay

12 Years a Slave

Before Midnight

Captain Phillips

Philomena

The Wolf of Wall Street

12 Years a Slave has lost just about every major screenwriting prize this season, but it just has to win something, right? The writing is not the film’s most noteworthy element, but it is by far the most loved (liked? Respected? I don’t know what to do with this movie) film of the bunch.

Slave wasn’t eligible for the Writers Guild award because John Ridley is a scab who crossed the picket line during the last writers’ strike. That prize went to Captain Phillips, which is strange considering how non-writer friendly that film is. I don’t think that scenario will repeat at the Oscars.

The spoiler that should have Fox Searchlight sweating is Philomena, which shockingly won the BAFTA. You can kind of explain it away, as Steve Coogan is a comedy god in the UK. However, this is Harvey Weinstein’s only shot at an above-the-line win (unless he hijacks the ballot box for Best Actress). Even though this year was kind of a bust for him, he will not go down without a fight.

Best Documentary Feature

20 Feet from Stardom

The Act of Killing

Cutie and the Boxer

Dirty Wars

The Square

Now that the Academy-at-large votes for this category, it is probably safe to predict the movie that is the easiest watch and made the most money. In this case, that film is 20 Feet from Stardom, an inspiring documentary about backup singers struggling to step into the spotlight. It’s a story that many in the Academy can likely relate to, and Harvey “the Punisher” Weinstein is pushing it. He should prevail here.

The critical darling here is The Act of Killing, which also prevailed at the BAFTAs. It makes sense on paper, but it’s a tough film to sit through. Imagine your grandmother watching a film about Indonesian militants recreating their most notorious mass murders in a Hollywood-ized setting. That is probably how the Academy will respond as well. I have a strong stomach for these kinds of things, but I found it morally questionable at best. I just don’t see it finding the support to win.

I would not underestimate The Square. Netflix proved to be an adept Emmy player with the success of “House of Cards.” They have been very aggressive in their first swing at Oscar campaigning, and it paid off with a nomination in an unusually competitive field. The Square's Arab Spring focus has gravitas, but it’s not too difficult to digest. It would make sense as a winner.

Best Animated Feature

The Croods

Despicable Me 2

Ernest and Celestine

Frozen

The Wind Rises

Frozen was hurtling towards the $1 billion mark as Oscar ballots were mailed in. There is just almost no way it will lose. The Wind Rises might have been a strong challenger had Hayao Miyazaki not ultimately decided against retiring. Now I just don’t think anyone cares about that movie.

Best Foreign Language Film

The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)

The Great Beauty (Italy)

The Hunt (Denmark)

The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

Omar (Palestinian Territories)

This is the first year that the Academy-at-large will decide on the Foreign Language Film Oscar. In the past, I might have expected something quaint and traditional like The Broken Circle Breakdown or Omar to emerge victorious, but I imagine that Oscar voters will just follow the buzz. In this case, the winner should be Cannes hit The Great Beauty, which has drawn favorable comparisons to classic Fellini. The Hunt should be considered a strong alternate. The Danish film, while maybe too dark and brooding, has a more conventional structure while the Italian film is more lyrical and abstract. It is a race that will ultimately divide down taste lines.

Best Film Editing

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

This one is a tough call, but I’m going with the most in-your-face editing of these options. I also get the impression that Captain Phillips will win something based on its performance throughout the season. It did win the big prize from the American Cinema Editors after all.

American Hustle could also take this one, as it is very loud and flashy. Gravity could even win this in a clean tech sweep, though its reliance on long takes may lead the uneducated Academy member (which is most of them) to believe that there was no editing in that film.

Best Cinematography

The Grandmaster

Gravity

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

Prisoners

This one has been sewn up since Gravity premiered at the Venice film festival. Nebraska is the only other one of these films that the Academy seemed to enjoy, but it’s just not flashy enough to contend.

Best Production Design

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Gravity

The Great Gatsby

Her

Decadence reigns supreme in the design categories, and The Great Gatsby has it in spades. Lincoln won this last year, which would point to 12 Years a Slave as a possible contender. The problem there is that most of it was filmed outdoors, where the Academy responds better to lavish physical sets. Gravity could be a spoiler, but there is not much production design happening there in the most traditional sense.

Best Costume Design

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

The Grandmaster

The Great Gatsby

The Invisible Woman

Again, pretty wins. Therefore, it is hard to see The Great Gatsby losing. American Hustle could upset, but I don’t know if we are at a point where Academy members can view a ‘70s film as a period piece. 12 Years a Slave is a possible spoiler, but I think it’s too drab for the Academy’s costuming taste.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Bad Grandpa

Dallas Buyers Club

The Lone Ranger

Every year, the makeup branch seeks to prove that it does not care about film quality when selecting its nominees. Bad Grandpa and The Lone Ranger join the illustrious company of Click and Norbit as Oscar-nominated films. Dallas Buyers Club will win this in a walk, as I don’t think the average Academy member would dare vote for the other two.

Best Original Score

The Book Thief

Gravity

Her

Philomena

Saving Mr. Banks

This is a very weak category, in which Alexandre Desplat, Thomas Newman, and John Williams really phoned it in to collect their annual Oscar nominations. Her is the only deserving nominee, but it probably can’t win. Gravity is probably the winner by default. It is definitely has the most score happening, even if I wouldn’t call it good or effective.

Best Original Song

Despicable Me 2 – “Happy”

Frozen – “Let It Go”

Her – “The Moon Song”

Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom – “Ordinary Love”

Disqualified Yet Not Forgotten:

Alone Yet Not Alone – “Alone Yet Not Alone”

In one of the more bizarre turns of this Oscar season, the Idina Menzel recording of “Let It Go” (sorry not sorry Demi Lovato) has become a Billboard top 20 hit. The song is just such a pop cultural moment that it almost feels wrong for it to lose the Oscar.

However, it faces a formidable challenge from the current Billboard number one song, “Happy.” Pharrell Williams is one of the most powerful people in show biz, and word on the street is that he wants that Oscar. This could actually be a much closer race than most pundits are making it out to be, though I think the internet will explode if “Let It Go” loses.

There’s definitely been a push for “Ordinary Love.” Harvey Weinstein wants to get something out of buying that damn Mandela movie after all. U2+Weinstein seems like a sure thing on paper, but they didn’t win for that Gangs of New York song either back in the day.

I would like to take a moment of silence for the Nominated Yet Not Nominated classic “Alone Yet Not Alone.” The world has been deprived of the chance to see Queen Joni Eareckson Tada perform on the Oscar stage. I hope Hollywood repents for its sins.

Best Sound Mixing

Captain Phillips

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Inside Llewyn Davis

Lone Survivor

Loud=good, and Best Picture nominee status is even better. Gravity should be the frontrunner here with Captain Phillips as a spoiler.

Best Sound Editing

All Is Lost

Captain Phillips

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Lone Survivor

See above.

Best Visual Effects

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Iron Man 3

The Lone Ranger

Star Trek Into Darkness

This is the easiest call of the night. If Gravity loses, I quit forever.

Figure Skating Night 1 Recap - Mother Russia Reigns while Jeremy Abbott Fails America

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Gurl....

Yesterday marked the first day of the inaugural Olympic figure skating team event – an event that has mystified even the hardest of hardcore skating fans, most of whom associate “team figure skating” with cheesy televised events from the 1990s starring Oksana Baiul and Nancy Kerrigan. Here is a decent breakdown of how scoring works, but the main idea is that each of the ten qualifying countries fields one skater or pair per discipline (men, ladies, pairs and ice dance) in the short program. The top five scoring countries across all four events will advance to the long program, which will combine with short program results to determine the medals.

Really, the team event is an excuse to get one of the Winter Olympics’ highest-rated sports on television for a few more nights. It also adds shades of camaraderie and a bit of nationalism to a traditionally individualistic sport. As a skeptic of this event coming into the Olympics, I must admit that I’ve loved the cute little country seating sections and seeing my favorite skaters cheer each other on in the normally tense and dramatic Kiss and Cry. The men’s and pairs’ short programs proved to be wildly entertaining and unpredictable. Here is a brief recap of how things went down:

1.    Russia – It was no surprise that reigning World Champion pair Tatiana Volosozhar and Maxim Trankov threw down a textbook perfect short program that put them in first place by over ten points. They even caused a minor stir in the Twitter-sphere with their Cinderella and Prince Charming-inspired look. However, few expected reigning Olympic silver medalist (and self-proclaimed platinum medalist) Evgeni Plushenko to finish second in a difficult men’s field after suffering countless injuries over the last four years. My jaw dropped when he landed a flawless quad toe-triple toe combo on what I can only assume is a bionic knee. From a presentation standpoint, Plushenko’s skate was the same old, same old – not a lot of speed, few transitions between technical elements, too much posing and flailing without purpose – but reputation inflation is nothing new in this sport. With strong ladies and ice dance teams, Russia should have few difficulties staying on top.

2.    Canada – As expected, Canada already looks to be Russia’s strongest challenger for the gold. Things did not go entirely according to plan yesterday, as three-time reigning World Champion Patrick Chan had a rough skate. His superior basic skating skills and interpretation gave him enough of a cushion to finish third (fans call his ability to score well no matter how he skates “Chanflation”), but this is not the start Chan had hoped for in his quest to become Canada’s first Olympic men’s gold medalist. The pairs’ event went better for Team Canada, as Meagan Duhamel and Eric Radford turned in their best short program of the season for a second place finish. These two make up for their relative weakness in artistry with insane technical difficulty. As the Olympics progress, take note of Meagan Duhamel’s extreme OCD as she frantically breaks down every performance in the Kiss and Cry and attempts to calculate her score.

3.    China – Team China definitely overperformed yesterday, especially in the absence of World Champion pair Pang Qing and Tong Jian, who are resting up for the main pairs’ event. Their replacements, Peng Cheng and Zhang Hao, are a classic “gorilla and flea” pair. He is a big, hulking 29 year-old, while she is a petite, limber teenager. The physical differences are jarring, but they make up for it with stunning overhead lifts and eye-popping throws. This is one performance I wish had made the main NBC broadcast, as they really were terrific in their Olympic debut. China also got a boost from teen phenom Yan Han, who landed a beautiful triple axel followed by a clean quad toe in an impressive Olympic debut. He still lacks the polish and maturity of the other top men, but he proved his competitive worth and established himself as a force to be reckoned with over the next Olympic cycle.

4.    Japan – In a star-making performance, Yuzuru Hanyu firmly took the lead in the men’s competition. Hanyu has had an army of screaming Japanese fangirls for the last few seasons, and if Twitter is any indication, he gained plenty of American fans last night. Japan’s lead in the team competition was to be short-lived, as their strengths are strictly limited to the individual events. Despite a noble effort from Narumi Takahashi and Ryuchi Kihara, they could not overcome their lack of technical difficulty and poor unison.

5.    Germany – With a bit of a messy contest that resulted in a three-way tie for fifth, the Germans wound up on top thanks to the tiebreaking procedure. They can probably thank an out-of-nowhere great skate from Peter Liebers – a man who tends to toil in the 15th-18th range of the World Championships. Liebers landed a quad toe and triple axel to a muzak arrangement of Coldplay while his teammates enthusiastically rang a cowbell from the sidelines. Former World Champion pair Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy sat this contest out to focus on the real pairs’ contest, but replacement husband-wife team Maylin and Daniel Wende saved the day with disco-ball inspired costumes and a Guns N’ Roses program.

6.    France – The always-amusing Florent Amodio served us some amazing man cleavage and all sorts of sass on his step sequence. One wonders if he could have landed that quad salchow if he spent more time training and less time acting. He still managed to land in the top five of the men’s field, but a near-meltdown from pair Vanessa James and Morgan Cipres put them in a difficult spot halfway through the short programs.

7.    United States – I don’t even know what to say. Jeremy Abbott is a wonderful skater, but he doesn’t know how to hold it together in major international competitions. I was thrilled he had the competition of his career and won U.S. Nationals in January, but deep down I knew he would collapse when it really mattered. His fall on the quad toe early in the program was not a total deal breaker, but that single axel showed a complete lack of fight that is unsettling to see from an Olympian. On the pairs’ front, Marissa Castelli and Simon Shnapir were always going to be the weak link for the U.S. in the team event. Despite a stumble on the side-by-side triple salchows, their fifth place finish was likely their ceiling anyway. Team USA will have to rely on their strong ladies and ice dancers to dig them out of this hole and put them in medal contention.

8.    Italy – Team Italy got off to a disastrous start when Paul Bonafacio Parkinson crashed on two of his jumping passes (while skating in Armani to a very Eurotrash-y arrangement of Beethoven) and finished dead last in the men’s event. Stefania Berton and Ondrej Hotarek had a clean skate to music from the Jim Carrey classic The Mask – a more common figure skating selection than you might think – to finish fourth in the pairs’ field. With strong contenders in the ladies’ and dance events, Italy still has a shot to move up and claim a spot in the coveted top five.

9.    Ukraine – The Ukrainians fall firmly in the “happy to be here” camp, as they lack top international contenders in any of the four disciplines. Both of their entrants on day one skated respectably, but suffered from a lack of difficulty. At least they aren’t last!

10.  Great Britain – Once a skating powerhouse, Team Britain also came into this competition without much of a chance at advancing to the long program. Matthew Parr only attempted a double axel in the short program, leading some of the cattier members of the skating community (i.e., yours truly) to label him a “ladies’ skater.” Stacey Kemp and David King are an internationally ranked pair with World Championship experience, but they made major mistakes on their side-by-side double axels and throw triple flip, thus landing them in last place. The Brits at least deserve a prize for sportsmanship, as they all showed admirable enthusiasm in the Kiss and Cry throughout the event.

The figure skating team event will continue on Saturday with the ladies’ and ice dance short programs, followed by the pairs’ long program. What did you think of figure skating’s newest competition? Will you join me in lighting a candle and saying a little prayer for Team USA?

Olympic Preview: ICE DANCE

Bow down, b*tches.

Ice dance has long been the most arcane of the figure skating disciplines with its complicated rules and results that don’t often correlate to what happens in competition. Shady backroom wheeling and dealing is a harsh reality of figure skating, but there is rarely a major figure skating scandal that does not somehow involve ice dance. Despite (or because of) the drama, ice dance is probably my favorite skating discipline these days. The field is deep, and the level of performance at major competitions is always high. 

Meryl Davis and Charlie White have emerged from this season as the Olympic gold medal favorites. They won the Grand Prix Final (although just barely), and gave new meaning to the phrase “nationals inflation” when they achieved a perfect program components score in the free dance at U.S. Nationals. The latest version of “Scheherazade” has some nice choreographic embellishments that should silence the haters who contend the program is too cold. Haters be damned, they have absolutely nailed their programs in every outing this year. Meryl and Charlie are looking sharp, well-trained, and ready to go. If they pull off the gold, they’ll be the first ever U.S. ice dance team to do so. 

 

Their main competition will still come from Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, the reigning Olympic champions. Tessa and Scott gave the Americans a run for their money at the Grand Prix Final, but they came up short in the end. The Canadian judges did their best to hyper-inflate their scores at Nationals, though Tessa botched the twizzles in the free dance. It’s no secret that the Americans have thoroughly surpassed their training mates technically, though many in the skating world still prefer Tessa and Scott’s more classic ballroom style.

The battle for gold in ice dance has been close and contentious for the past four years. These two teams may see each other for eight hours daily, but they are most certainly not friends. The involvement of ice dance powerbroker Marina Zoueva only complicates matters. It is rare for the top two teams in the world to train under the same coach, and many fans speculate that Marina heavily influences their outcomes. As the Canadians already have an Olympic gold, it’s not difficult to imagine Marina sitting firmly in the American camp. Meryl and Charlie have the momentum at this point, and in my opinion they also have the better programs. The Canadians often struggle when they sense they are trailing the Americans, but the burden is on them to prove their worth and defend their title.

The battle for bronze is still close and unclear. The favorites are probably still Ekaterina Bobrova and Dmitri Soloviev because I can’t imagine the Russian skating federation going empty-handed in ice dance. Ekaterina and Dmitri are not beloved by their federation, but the powers that be have accepted that they are Mother Russia’s best option in this field. Note that they were consistently in the 6-8 range early in this Olympic cycle before grabbing the bronze at last year’s World Championships. That kind of jump is rare in the world of ice dance, and it is a sign of strong political maneuvering. The jump in ranking was preceded by their sudden move to politically powerful coach Sasha Zhulin. Suddenly we hear stories about Ekaterina’s improved posture and the couple’s superior artistry, though the skating has not changed over the last three years.

The technical panels have been kind to Ekaterina and Dmitri in a season where many top teams have struggled to maximize their levels on the short dance compulsory pattern. However, their bizarre “dying bird” free dance has given them trouble, with mistakes costing them the gold at Cup of China and the bronze in the Grand Prix Final. Despite a decisive win at Russian Nationals, the powers that be pressured Ekaterina and Dmitri to drop the free dance and revert back to last year’s more successful but equally bad “insane asylum” program. They sat out the European Championships, so no one is sure how they’re looking. I have no doubt that the pieces are in place for them to win bronze if they deliver. The question will be whether or not they are obviously sloppy in the free dance.

The biggest hurdle for the Russians will likely be the veteran French team of Nathalie Pechalat and Fabian Bourzat. The French skating federation is a political force to be reckoned with, and they are not giving up their one chance at an Olympic medal this year without a fight.  After a disappointing 2013 season, Nathalie and Fabian got their own Russian powerbroker coach in Igor Shpiliband (despite their vocal protests over leaving their old team). Like the Russians, they skipped the European Championships, so the last impression international judges have of them is their strong bronze medal-winning performance in the Grand Prix Final. This under-the-radar approach is likely wise given both skaters’ propensity to injury. Nathalie and Fabian’s “Little Prince” free dance has been well-received throughout the season, but their short dance technical scores remain a problem. They need to focus on delivering a sharp and clean short dance to make sure they are in striking distance to nab the bronze in the free dance. 

In the absence of the Russian and French favorites, the prestigious European Championship gold went to Anna Cappellini and Luca Lanotte. This was a big boost to the top Italian team after they finished a devastating sixth place in the Grand Prix Final. Anna and Luca have progressed from eighth to sixth to fourth over the last three World Championships, and they have their sights set on an Olympic medal. The chances are slim, but entering the Olympics as the European Champions is good for their momentum. I’ve said on this blog before that their programs don’t do them any favors. They have a nice, graceful style, but their “Barber of Seville” free dance doesn’t pack much of a punch. It doesn’t help that they share coach Igor Shpiliband with the French team, and it’s clear where his political priorities are. Anna and Luca have to count on skating clean and hoping that the Russians and French falter. Otherwise, they’re looking at a fifth place finish at best. 

If the judges had their way, the European Championships would have gone to second-ranked Russians Elena Ilinykh and Nikita Katsalapov. Elena and Nikita are everything you want in an ice dance team: gorgeous line and extension, impressive speed and ice coverage, and engaging interpretive ability. It doesn’t hurt that they’re both model hot. Unfortunately, they are probably the laziest top dance team in recent memory. This became the subject of a major falling out with their former coach, Sasha Zhulin, before he took on their top domestic rivals instead. Their lack of proper preparation shows up when they make major errors on things like pair spins and step sequences……or just on choreographic moves at the end of the program. They can usually manage one good contest per year, which they seem to have already accomplished at Trophee Eric Bompard, where they unexpectedly beat the top French team. They followed this up by falling three times at Russian Nationals and melting down on their free dance twizzle sequence at the European Championships. Their program components score at Europeans showed that the judges were ready to hand them the gold, but Elena and Nikita practically gave it away to the Italians. No one knows what to expect in Sochi. If they deliver, they could be a threat for the podium. If not, they could end up in ninth place like they were at last year’s World Championships. They remain one of the most frustratingly talented but difficult teams in dance, but that’s why we love them.

The only non-European team in the hunt for bronze is Canada’s Kaitlyn Weaver and Andrew Poje. Even still, it’s kind of just a courtesy to call them contenders, as there is almost no way that there will be a North American sweep of the podium. Still, Kaitlyn and Andrew have been in the top five in the last three World Championships, and their “Maria de Buenos Aires” free dance is among the strongest of the year. Unfortunately, it seems that the international technical panels this season have found a way to hold them down no matter what. They were noticeably low-balled in the short dance at Rostelecom Cup and in the free dance in the Grand Prix Final. It will take a miracle to get them on the Olympic podium, and coach Angelika Krylova likely knows that. She was also on the losing side of some bad political deals in her time as an elite ice dancer. Kaitlyn and Andrew should take this as a learning experience, as they will likely emerge as major contenders after Sochi. 

The other two American teams will likely round out the top nine. If either team can break through the group of seven I’ve mentioned, it is Madison Chock and Evan Bates. After a shaky Grand Prix season, the figure skating community was stunned with how impressive they looked at U.S. Nationals. For a team that tends to struggle technically, they have clearly spent time meticulously tweaking their elements to maximize levels. Nationals also marked the first time I felt their skating matched the passion and intensity of their “Les Miserables” musical selections in the free dance. The pair is still all about Madison’s star quality while Evan drags her around through the difficult technical elements. Still, they are engaging on the ice and have a nice, polished look. It will be difficult for them to improve on their seventh place finish from last year’s World Championships (they are political priority number three for Igor Shpiliband after the French and Italians), but I won’t be surprised if they match it. 

Maia and Alex Shibutani failed to gain ground on their domestic rivals, and they seem unlikely to climb back up the international standings. They have toiled in eighth place hell after their fluke bronze at the 2011 World Championships, and they may find themselves even lower this year. They’re still among the stronger top dance teams technically, but their sibling awkwardness makes it easy for the judges to kill them in program components. They wisely replaced their dreary “Ben” arrangement from the Michael Jackson free dance with “Man in the Mirror,” but the entire program still seems very slapped together. Michael Jackson is difficult to pull off in competitive ice dance, and his choreography looks especially wrong on these two. Maia and Alex may fare better in the future after Marina Zoueva moves on from Davis/White and Virtue/Moir and can actually spend time on them.

Olympic Preview: The Ladiezzzz

Gurl no! Beware the Sport Illustrated curse!

Ever since Sonja Henie left the competitive arena and become one of the highest paid stars of 1930s Hollywood, ladies’ figure skating has been the premier glamor sport of the Olympics. It’s a sport that never fails to deliver on drama, triumphs, bitter defeats, and fashion disasters that will dominate the pop culture landscape for most of the next month. The Olympic ladies’ skating competition is also one of the most high-stakes events in all of amateur sports. A gold medal can be a springboard for international fame and fortune. Look no further than Peggy Fleming, Dorothy Hamill, Katarina Witt, Oksana Baiul, and Yuna Kim. You don’t always need the gold to profit from the sport if the circumstances are right (Nancy Kerrigan, Michelle Kwan), but just ask Linda Fratianne and Rosalyn Sumners where their Olympic silver medals got them in life.

The ladies’ event in Sochi feels especially exciting thanks to the presence of Yuna Kim – the first ladies’ gold medalist to attempt to defend her Olympic title since Katarina Witt in 1988. Yuna is a bona fide superstar in South Korea. She is the only competitive skater who can sell out arenas on just her name. Everyone in the skating world knows that they need to kiss up to Queen Yuna if they want to make any money from show skating. She endorses everything from cars to beer, she is an occasional Kpop star and author, and she had a key role in Pyeongchang’s successful bid to host the 2018 Winter Olympics.  Her star power brings a level of energy to ladies’ skating that has been missing since the height of the Michelle Kwan era.

Yuna missed the Grand Prix season thanks to a “foot injury” and instead opted to debut her Olympic programs at a tiny competition in Croatia away from media scrutiny. She’s working on a condensed preparation timeline compared to the other top ladies, but she is probably the most physically gifted athlete in the history of this sport. Yuna’s performance at Korean Nationals showed that she had the jumps back, but she’s missing her trademark speed and attack. She seemed to be going through the motions and just focusing on executing the technical content. Still, I have no doubt that Yuna Kim will show up to Sochi ready to go. For a skater who has suffered from burnout in the past, it is important for her to peak at the right time, and she is clearly saving her best for the performance that matters. Although Yuna has yet to face any of her competitors head to head, she has to be considered the gold medal favorite. She has a killer instinct and the ability to deliver under pressure.

In a repeat of Vancouver, Yuna’s closest competitor will again be Japanese star Mao Asada. Mao and Yuna have been pitted against each other since their days in the junior ranks, and their rivalry has dominated the figure skating fan community for much of the past eight years. Mao’s silver medal in Vancouver was a bitter disappointment for the powerful Japanese skating federation, and pressure is high for her to deliver in Sochi. She dominated the Grand Prix circuit with decisive wins at Skate America and NHK Trophy followed by a gold medal performance on home ice at the Grand Prix Final.  However, a disastrous performance at Japanese Nationals gave her a bronze medal that many felt was generous.

Mao heads into the Olympics with the most difficult technical content of the ladies’ field on paper. She is the only ladies’ skater with a triple axel, and she has planned to perform the jump once in the short program and twice in the long program. Her game plan is risky, and it’s unclear if it will pay off. Mao has a history of underrotations and improper jump technique, so the technical panel tends to especially scrutinize her performances. Even on a day when she lands everything she plans, she loses ground to Yuna Kim on execution. Mao has matured significantly over the years and is one of the most artistic competitive ladies’ skaters. Still, she rarely beats Yuna in program components. Yuna’s comeback put a serious damper on Mao’s quest for an Olympic gold. Mao-chan will have to deliver like she never has before and pray that Yuna falls a few times.

There will be plenty of outside challengers for an Olympic medal. If anyone can really upset and finish second or higher, it is Russian teen phenom Julia Lipnitskaia. The jump from junior to senior competition is often difficult, and it typically takes a year or two to build reputation and get program component scores that can compete with the top international skaters. Julia has completely cut the line and seems to gearing up for a Tara Lipinski moment on home ice in Sochi. She won both of her Grand Prix events and took the silver medal in the Grand Prix Final. She then won the European Championships with a higher long program score than Mao Asada has received in her entire career. Though Julia’s speed and ice coverage are weak compared to the older top ladies and her jumps can be small and kind of scary, international judges don’t seem to care. She is a strong competitor and has used her rather sullen demeanor to create the most effective “Schindler’s List” program I can remember. I expect her to ride her fabulous spins and amazing flexibility to the Olympic podium.

Still, the situation with the Russian ladies is a bit puzzling, as the Russian federation seems hell-bent on getting Adelina Sotnikova an Olympic medal. It is difficult to interpret her victory over Julia Lipnitskaia at Russian Nationals. Adelina has powerful jumps, but her overall packaging is straight out of my worst Irina Slutskaya nightmares. The polish and attention to detail simple aren’t there. Julia should really beat Adelina head-to-head every time they both skate well, but that is not always the case. Adelina also defeated Julia in the short program at the Grand Prix Final and the European Championships, but she has a tendency to self-destruct in the long program. It is certainly not out of the question for two Russian ladies to land on the Olympic podium. If Adelina puts together two clean programs in Sochi, who knows what will happen.

The American ladies’ prospects in Sochi look much brighter than they did in Vancouver. We no longer have to pretend that Rachael Flatt is an acceptable National Champion. Still, our girls have to contend with the deepest Olympic ladies’ field in recent memory. Gracie Gold fulfilled every marketer’s dream by decisively winning U.S. Nationals. Now she is unavoidable in NBC Olympic preview pieces and is slapped across the cover of the Sports Illustrated Olympic issue. Gracie’s move to Frank Carroll proved to be wise, as he has defied the odds and turned her into a lady. She still has some of the best jumps and spins in the world, but now she holds out her movements and attempts to interpret the music.

It’s tough to know where Gracie’s ceiling is in Sochi. She is a different skater from the one we saw struggling on the Grand Prix. If she’s on, her technical marks should be near the top of the field. The judges can still bury her in the program components score if they want to. Gracie will not be given the benefit of the doubt in Sochi. She needs to have the two skates of her life and hope for a few mistakes from her competitors. An individual medal is certainly a possibility, and it would turn her into the star that U.S. Figure Skating desperately needs.

Where does that leave Ashley Wagner?  What started as a strong season with a victory at Trophee Eric Bompard and a bronze medal in the Grand Prix Final turned into a nightmare with a fourth place finish at U.S. Nationals. Suddenly U.S. Lady Number One became the ugly stepsister of the Olympic team when she was selected at the expense of fan favorite Mirai Nagasu after her best competition since the 2010 Olympics. Ashley realized her image is in need of some rehab after the Nationals controversy, so she dropped her “Romeo & Juliet” free skate in favor of last year’s much more popular “Samson & Delilah.”

Ashley is a solid, complete skater who always scores well internationally. Her problem is that there’s nothing truly remarkable about her skating. Even with strong performances at the last two World Championships, she finished fourth and fifth. If she lands all the jumps, she won’t match the other top ladies on spins and footwork. Her programs are well-choreographed, and she has really improved her interpretation, but she will never get the program components scores of a Yuna Kim or a Mao Asada.  She has tried to up the ante technically by going for a triple flip+triple toe combo in both programs, but she made an error on the element both times at Nationals. Ashley skates conservatively when she’s nervous, so I can see her watering down her content when the pressure is on. Despite what NBC wants us to believe, the Olympic podium has always been an uphill battle for Ashley Wagner, and I am not optimistic about her chances after a big blow to her confidence at Nationals. I hope I am wrong.

The surprise member of the U.S. Olympic Team is 15-year-old Polina Edmunds, who will be making her senior international debut in Sochi. Polina skated well at Nationals, but I was a bit baffled by her scores. She is a fine technician, but her skating is still very junior-ish. There is a big maturity gap between her and the other top American ladies that was not reflected in the program components scores. Rest assured that the gap will be reflected at the Olympics. International judges are not familiar with this girl, and they will not likely do her any favors in her first outing. Polina will have a difficult time finishing in the top 10 at in Sochi, though her strong technical content could keep her afloat if the top ladies falter. The girl is a feisty competitor who knows how to seize the moment.

The beneficiary of Mao Asada’s dismal performance at Japanese Nationals was Akiko Suzuki, a longtime fan favorite whose harrowing life story is Lifetime movie of the week material. Akiko had the skate of her career at Nationals and certainly turned some heads after most had written her off when she failed to make the Grand Prix Final. Akiko has long had the talent to be an Olympic medalist, but she tends to wilt under pressure. I hope her National title will be the boost she needs to throw down two clean skates in Sochi. She is a wonderfully musical skater who has the potential to really create a moment for herself in Sochi with her memorable “Phantom of the Opera” long program. Look for her to finish high in the standings if she delivers.

Japanese Nationals were also kind to Kanako Murakami after a she failed to medal at either of her Grand Prix events. She kept the momentum going with a superb showing at the Four Continents Championships, where she posted the third-highest long program score of the season after Julia Lipnitskaia and Mao Asada. Kanako is not an appealing skater or someone international judges necessarily want on the Olympic podium. However, much like a Romanian gymnast, you know she is going to stay on her feet when it counts. She was in the top five at the last two World Championships despite early season struggles and programs nobody really cared for. I will not be surprised to see her near the Olympic podium, especially if the long program is a splat-fest. Prepare yourselves for the least-Jewish performance to the music of Yentl you will ever see.

And then there is the odd case of Carolina Kostner. The Italian ice queen is a favorite of skating purists thanks to her deep edges, effortless speed, and engaging on-ice presence. Carolina has been a judge favorite over the last four years, as evidenced by her silver medal at last year’s World Championships despite major mistakes in both programs. However, her Olympic podium chances are in doubt after a disappointing Grand Prix season. After missing the Grand Prix Final, Carolina scrapped both of her programs and returned with a gorgeous new short program to Schubert’s “Ave Maria” and a reprise of last year’s sultry free skate to Ravel’s “Bolero.” She came away with a bronze medal from the European Championships, where not even her strong program components scores could keep her ahead of the Russian wunderkinds. Carolina should still be considered a contender for the podium in Sochi, but it’s clear that the international judges will no longer hold he up when she doesn’t skate well. The Olympics have never been a good event for Carolina Kostner, and it will be an uphill battle for her to end her impressive career on a high note. Carolina is just not a skater who is going to put together two clean programs in the same event.

I’ve probably mentioned all the feasible medal contenders, though there are a few ladies who have the potential for a strong finish (8^th or higher) if the stars align. Kaetlyn Osmond has struggled with injury all year, but she looked very sharp and ready to go at Canadian Nationals. Kaetlyn skates with reckless abandon, and her kamikaze-style jump entry is always a white-knuckle experience to watch. Still, she is a charismatic and talented skater who can knock some of the other top contenders out of the coveted top six group with a strong short program. China’s Li Zijun was also a question mark for much of the season due to injury, but her strong showing at the Four Continents Championships show that she is on the right track and could be a spoiler in Sochi. She has a delicate, graceful style that reminds one of a young Chen Lu, and she could be contending for World titles in the next couple of seasons. And then there is one of my personal favorites, Valentina Marchei, who will not likely be contending for the top six. However, she will certainly be serving serious face and attitude, and we should all root for her to make the top ten.