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| I'm baaaaaaaaack. |
And now the moment you have all been waiting for has finally
arrived: I will predict the 2012 Academy Award nominees in the categories that
people actually care about. If this seems early, that’s because it is. The
Academy is announcing two weeks earlier this year for reasons that are beyond
me. The average voter has a hard enough time seeing enough movies to fill out a
ballot, and this year it’s going to be even worse. This is also the first year
that Oscar voting has ever been done online, which has naturally been a
disaster for a group whose membership is predominantly over the age of 60. I
fear that these two factors combined will yield some screwy results, and my
accuracy will probably be lower than the last couple of years. However, I feel
like I have a fairly good idea of how these will pan out. We’ll see what
happens tomorrow! Overall, the Oscar race this year is really fun. Most of the
big contenders are legitimate box office hits, and the acting and directing
contenders are way more A-list than usual. If the nominations turn out like I
think they will, this could be the most star-studded and glamorous Oscar
ceremony in a long time.
Best Picture
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
And between
zero and three of:
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
After
successfully confounding Oscar pundits last year with the floating Best Picture
nominee system, the Academy has chosen to continue this nonsensical practice.
There will be between five and ten nominees depending on how many films command
more than 5% of the total vote for Best Picture. Last year proved that there’s
no way to guess how many that will be, so I won’t bother with that. I think
there will be at least seven, and I wouldn’t be shocked if there were actually
ten. Last year seemed fairly weak, yet there were still nine nominees. This
year has been full of films that people genuinely love, and there isn’t an
overwhelming favorite.
Let’s start
with what we know. Lincoln looks like
a winner at this point, so there’s no way that misses. Zero Dark Thirty has been the critical consensus choice of the year
and should be a big player even if I think it’s ultimately too controversial to
win. Argo is all about Hollywood
saving the world, and the Academy has been receptive to Ben Affleck’s films
thus far. This will be his year to make the Best Picture cut. Les Miserables took a critical beating,
but audiences love it. This was basically guaranteed a Best Picture nomination
the moment the film was announced, and the critical reception wasn’t bad enough
to derail that train. Silver Linings
Playbook was an audience hit at the Toronto festival and has pretty
substantial critical backing as well. I’m surprised the box office gross hasn’t
been higher, but Harvey Weinstein is behind it, and I would never bet against
him. He’s also pushing Django Unchained,
which is another audience favorite and a surprise box office smash. I think Inglourious Basterds marked a turning
point in the Academy’s relationship with Quentin Tarantino, so I expect voters
to respond well to this. Life of Pi has
been lost in the shuffle of the other end-of-year prestige releases, but it has
vocal fans and was another surprisingly strong box office performer. Ang Lee is
one of the most respected directors in the biz, and it’s worth noting that the
last two 3D spectacles from Oscar winning directors both pulled off Best
Picture nominations (Avatar and Hugo.)
Here’s where
things get dicey. Beasts of the Southern
Wild fits the mold of many recent Best Picture nominees: the breakout
Sundance hit that wound up as one of the best-reviewed American films of the
year. I fear that this will be buried under all the massive studio prestige
releases, and I really think it needed to perform better than it did with the
end-of-year critics’ awards in order to be a surefire nominee. However, it is a
passion pick that has a contingent of vocal supporters. Fox Searchlight has a
strong history of pushing little movies into big Oscar categories. I’m
hesitantly predicting it to get the nomination. Moonrise Kingdom was the only American film to emerge from Cannes
unscathed, and it’s Wes Anderson’s best-reviewed film in over ten years. It was
also one of the big art house box office success stories of the year. In a
weaker year, I think this would be an obvious Best Picture nominee, but in a
field as crowded as this, I’d be surprised if it pulled off the nomination. At
the same time, this keeps popping up on end-of-year critics’ lists and pulled
off Best Picture nominations from the Producers Guild and the Golden Globes. I
would say it’s probably in ninth place. Amour
is an intriguing option that I could really be underestimating. After
winning big at Cannes, this became the most talked about foreign language
release of the year. Michael Haneke has come to be accepted as the king of
European art house in the US, and this is his most accessible film ever. Sony
Pictures Classics has done an excellent job of campaigning Amour as a legitimate Best Picture contender. It even became the
first foreign language film since Crouching
Tiger, Hidden Dragon to win Best Picture from the LA Film Critics
Association and had a superb showing at BAFTA. Ultimately, it’s just really
tough for foreign fare to gain traction in this category, and the movie might
be too depressing to pull it off. I would definitely not be shocked to see it
in the Best Picture category.
There are
some fringe contenders here. The Master is
one that puzzles me. As Paul Thomas Anderson’s long-awaited follow-up to There Will Be Blood, this was one of the
most anticipated and hyped releases of the year. It had deafening buzz coming
out of the Venice festival and has had a very strong showing on end-of-year
critics’ lists. However, it proved to be polarizing outside of the festival
bubble. It’s a very cold and alienating film. It also bombed at the box office
in a year where a lot of prestige releases really took off with audiences. I
just can’t imagine the Academy embracing a movie like this. This is another
Weinstein vehicle, but he doesn’t seem to be pushing it as much as SLP and Django. The film does have its
supporters, and there could be enough of them to propel this to a nomination,
but I don’t see it. The Impossible is
another one that really puzzles me. It seems right up the Academy’s alley, but
most awards groups have largely ignored it outside of Naomi Watts’ performance.
But then you have Angelina Jolie hosting screenings of this at her house and
Reese Witherspoon writing an open letter expressing how much the film moved
her. It’s a classic inspirational tearjerker with impressive techs and a
real-life connection (although they literally white-washed the story.) I can
see this pulling off an Extremely Loud
and Incredibly Close-esque Best Picture nod without many other nominations.
I think that about covers it, unless the old fogies decide to rally behind The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, which is
not outside the realm of possibility. Skyfall
also has some buzz and a Producers Guild nod. It would be awesome if it
could sneak into Best Picture, but the Academy is snobby and has never embraced
Bond before. It’s odd that the expanded Best Picture was basically created
because The Dark Knight was snubbed,
yet The Dark Knight Rises doesn’t
have a chance in hell of making it.
Best Director
Ben Affleck,
Argo
Kathryn
Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven
Spielberg, Lincoln
Quentin
Tarantino, Django Unchained
Alt: Tom
Hooper, Les Miserables
This is a
tough and crowded category with a ton of big names vying for five spots. After
missing out for War Horse last year,
Spielberg looks set to receive his seventh directing nomination. Lincoln is his most acclaimed film since
Saving Private Ryan (or maybe even Schindler’s List), so he’s looking good
for his third directing Oscar. If anyone can pull that off, it’s Spielberg. His
two strongest competitors also have political films. Kathryn Bigelow came back
from her history making Oscar win for The
Hurt Locker with another unanimously raved film about the War on Terror.
She’s come under fire recently for the factuality of Zero Dark Thirty, but I expect her peers to come through for her
and nominate her again. She is the president of the Academy directors branch
after all. Ben Affleck has been working his way up to a directing nomination
for the past five years, with both Gone
Baby Gone and The Town scoring
major Oscar nominations. The directors branch has a history of awarding actors
turned directors (Clint Eastwood, Kevin Costner, MEL GIBSON), and they will
almost certainly follow suit with Affleck. He’s even a strong contender for the
win.
Things are
decidedly less predictable after that. As I mentioned before, Ang Lee is
revered among his peers, and he’s been highly praised for the visual achievement
of Life of Pi. James Cameron even
called it the best use of 3D ever, which is no small praise coming from the
self-proclaimed “king of the world.” Though the buzz for Life of Pi has faded considerably, I think Lee will have enough
support for a nomination. He has the Directors Guild, the Globes, and BAFTA to
back him up. I assume that one of Harvey Weinstein’s candidates will make it
here, and I am settling on Tarantino because Django Unchained really took off right around the time that ballots
were due. Weinstein has always been Tarantino’s greatest champion, so I suspect
that there has been some behind the scenes wheeling and dealing to make this
happen. Tarantino has also become very respected in the industry, as seen in
the almost reverential treatment his fellow directors gave him in this year’s
Hollywood Reporter Oscar roundtable. The Globe and BAFTA nominations bode well,
even though he missed with the DGA.
Tom Hooper
for Les Miserables can’t be counted
out, though it seems that most Oscar prognosticators want to. Most of the
film’s detractors have (rightly) blamed all of its faults on Hooper, and the
directors branch has been unkind to musical directors for the past 30 years.
However, Hooper is an Oscar winner with a movie that a lot of people really
love. He wouldn’t be the first guy to overcome bad reviews and get a directing
nomination for a popular movie. The Directors Guild nomination is telling. If
he makes it, then look out for Les Miz
as a possible contender for the Best Picture win. David O. Russell seems like
he should be a big contender for Silver
Linings Playbook, but he hasn’t gotten the big nominations that his
competitors have. The movie also just isn’t as showy as his competitors’ films.
However, the Academy already welcomed him to the club for The Fighter, and traditional Hollywood dramadies often get
directing nominations if the movie is popular enough. SLP appears to have
strong industry support, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him nominated.
There are a
couple of contenders for the auteur-ist set. Paul Thomas Anderson seemed like
an obvious nominee for The Master
coming out of the Venice fest, but his buzz was snatched away by bigger
directors with more accessible movies at the end of the year. It remains to be
seen if There Will Be Blood was a
fluke, or if the Academy has really and truly welcomed him. He has some big
critics’ award wins (LA being the most notable), and I guess the directors
branch is the likeliest group to really “get” The Master. It’s possible, but I wouldn’t count on it. Michael
Haneke for Amour is another fringe
contender. The directors branch occasionally branches out of the Hollywood
bubble and recognizes big names from world cinema (Pedro Almodovar and
Krzysztof Kieslowski in the last twenty years), and Haneke certainly has the
prestige and clout to join that list. Ultimately I think this year is a bit too
A-list for him to break through, but it’s not out of the question. The BAFTA
nomination shows that there is some support for him in the industry.
Best Actor
Bradley
Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel
Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes,
The Sessions
Hugh
Jackman, Les Miserables
Denzel
Washington, Flight
Alt: Joaquin
Phoenix, The Master
I’m
confident that I have the top six correct, but I go back and forth over who
misses the cut. Daniel Day-Lewis is the only one who is 100% not missing. He is
about to steamroll his way to Oscar number three. I keep waiting for backlash
to happen over Day-Lewis becoming the first man to win three lead acting
Oscars, but there just doesn’t seem to be a viable alternative. I guess there
was never a way that Daniel Day-Lewis as Abraham Lincoln was not going to be
showered with awards.
I don’t even
know who is the second most likely. I guess Bradley Cooper? It’s weird to think
of him as an Oscar nominee, but the writing is on the wall. His reviews are
good enough and he has been working the circuit. It pays to butter up voters
and prove that you want it, and he has certainly done that. Headlining a Best
Picture nominee helps his chances too, even if his costar has most of the buzz.
Hugh Jackman looks fairly set as well. He may not have much of a pedigree in
the film world, but he’s charming and people love him. He hosted the Oscars for
God’s sake. Beneath the action star veneer, Jackman has always been a song and
dance man dying for a big part in a movie musical. He didn’t get raves for Les
Miz, but he definitely got a strong pass for pulling off a tough part. If
nothing else, he has the “I SANG EVERYTHING LIVE, DAMMIT!” narrative going for
him that’s been pushed by Universal’s PR team for months.
Denzel
Washington does have legitimate raves, but it’s for a movie nobody really cares
about that much. Then again, we are talking about two-time Oscar winning
beloved A-list movie star Denzel Washington with his best reviews in ten years.
Flight played well with audiences and
took in a decent box office gross, even if it’s been pretty much forgotten by
now. Robert Zemeckis at the helm gives it some Oscar prestige, and Washington plays
one of Oscar’s favorite archetypes: the raging but ultimately repentant
alcoholic. Speaking of movies nobody really cares about, I have John Hawkes in
the last spot for The Sessions. That
film was a big Sundance hit, and he looked like a possible Oscar winner at the
time. However, the movie totally disappeared in the midst of the end-of-year
prestige releases. Box office was poor for a movie with that kind of festival
buzz. In the end, I think his part is just too Oscar baity to ignore. He plays
a man paralyzed from the neck down living in an iron lung who wants to lose his
virginity before he dies. And it’s based on a true story! If you’re wiping your
eyes reading that summary, you’re probably an Academy member. Hawkes may not be
as famous as the competition, but he is a respected character actor who pulled
off a surprise nomination for Winter’s
Bone. He’s just the kind of sturdy, humble workhorse doing excellent work
that the actors branch likes to reward.
What to do
with Joaquin Phoenix? He gave the most raved male performance of the year after
Daniel Day-Lewis. He has Golden Globe and BAFTA nominations and the LA Film
Critics Association award. He has Harvey Weinstein! I really think he’s going
to miss because he’s kind of a dick. You can get away with refusing to play the
campaign game if the performance is strong enough. Mo’Nique won an Oscar
without participating in the dog and pony show. I don’t think you can overcome
completely trashing the Academy and the Oscars in public the way Phoenix did while
doing press for The Master. As much
as I’m sure Harvey Weinstein wishes he could spin that away, I don’t think it’s
possible to piss on the establishment and come back unless you are Marlon
Brando. I don’t get the impression that Phoenix was ever particularly
well-liked anyway, and his recent behavior doesn’t help his cause. The snub
from the Screen Actors Guild was telling. That said, many believe that his work
speaks for itself and will probably vote for him anyway. We’ll see if it’s
enough.
There aren’t
really many more feasible options here. Richard Gere got a Globe nod for Arbitrage, but I think that’s the extent
of his awards run. As unlikable as Joaquin Phoenix is, at least he’s been
nominated before. Richard Gere isn’t even allowed to present at the Oscars
anymore. There is of course a parade of failed Oscar bait in this category like
Anthony Hopkins as Alfred Hitchcock in Hitchcock
and Bill Murray as FDR in Hyde Park on
Hudson, but I will spare both men the embarrassment of dwelling on those
films.
Best Actress
Jessica
Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion
Cotillard, Rust & Bone
Jennifer
Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle
Riva, Amour
Naomi Watts,
The Impossible
Alt: Helen
Mirren, Hitchcock
Sadly,
substantial female roles in the big end-of-year prestige releases were sparse.
The good news is that Oscar voters have been forced to consider art house and
indie releases to fill out their ballots, which is pretty exciting. Our
frontrunner would probably be Jennifer Lawrence. Lawrence leveraged her Oscar
nomination for gritty indie Winter’s Bone
into key roles in two big franchises. She catapulted onto the A-list this year
with great reviews and stellar box office for The Hunger Games and then received rapturous raves at the Toronto
fest for her work in Silver Linings
Playbook. The girl is only 22, which is very young for a Best Actress
winner, but she is just in the right place at the right time. It helps that she
is beautiful and charming, and she has joined costar Cooper in playing the
campaign game like a pro. If anyone can stop her, it’s probably Jessica
Chastain. I predicted in last year’s Oscar post that she would be back for
another nomination soon, and here we are already! It’s a performance that has
drawn comparisons to Jodie Foster in Silence
of the Lambs and Claire Danes in “Homeland,” which both obviously bode well
for her award prospects. Chastain oddly feels just as new to the scene as
Jennifer Lawrence does, although she is between 10 and 15 years older
(depending on who you ask. Side note: I love how evasive she is about her age.
How Old Hollywood of her!) Also like Lawrence, she is really beautiful and
knows how to work a room. It could be really close, but ultimately I think the
controversy over Zero Dark Thirty
will hurt Chastain’s chances. With some calling her the Meryl Streep of her
generation, I have a feeling she’ll win her Oscar soon enough.
The rest of
the field is kind of wild. Marion Cotillard avoided the fate of most foreign
Oscar nominees and has firmly planted herself on the A-list by becoming
Hollywood’s go-to foreign femme fatale. She even had major roles in two recent
Best Picture nominees (Inception and Midnight in Paris.) Rust & Bone marks her return to French language fare as well as
her first leading role since La vie en
rose. The movie is small and weird (Cotillard loses her legs to an orca and
then has legless sex!), but Marion Cotillard has enough clout to pull off a
nomination for an obscure foreign film. She’s been campaigning hard for the
nomination and it paid off at the Globes, BAFTA, and SAG. I see no reason why
the Academy won’t follow suit. Naomi Watts became the next big thing after her
breakout performance in Mulholland Drive,
but a string of flop Oscar bait made her the girl you call when Nicole Kidman
is busy. I thought The Impossible
looked like another flop for Naomi, but after a tear-filled standing ovation at
the Toronto festival and a slew of big name endorsements for her performance
and the film it looks like she is in. She has certainly latched on to her
moment back in the spotlight and is working the circuit harder than almost
anyone else in this category. She literally does nothing but scream and cry in
this film, but I love and good Oscar comeback and dearest Naomi is a
sentimental favorite of mine. SAG and the Globes bit, but BAFTA ignored her.
Maybe it’s because she has shunned her British heritage and pretends to be
Australian, but it’s still a cause for concern.
The last
spot is tough. I am tentatively going with Emmanuelle Riva for Amour, though I have a hard time seeing
the Academy nominating two French language performances in the same year. Her
biggest problem is that she is a complete unknown in Hollywood who is not doing
any press for the film. However, Academy members are allegedly really
responding to the film, and she is the heart and soul of it. She showed that
she was on the radar when she won Best Actress from the LA Film Critics and the
National Society of Film Critics, but her BAFTA nomination at the expense of
Naomi Watts sealed the deal for me. The Academy’s preferential balloting system
favors passion picks, and I can see Riva’s name at the top of enough ballots to
push her to a nomination. Sony Pictures Classic has run a great campaign for Amour, and I believe that enough people
have seen it. At 85, Riva would be the oldest Best Actress nominee ever, which
is a story that keeps coming up in industry buzz. This is my riskiest choice,
but I think it will pay off.
I almost
want to assume the worst and bump Riva for Helen Mirren. Fox Searchlight really
dropped the bomb on Hitchcock. They
thought they had a Best Picture contender on their hands, but it wound up
pleasing neither critics nor audiences. Most critics agreed that Anthony
Hopkins wasn’t as good as Toby Jones in the crappy HBO Hitchcock movie. Only
Dame Helen survived in tact and managed nominations from the Globes, BAFTA and
SAG. She has allegedly received applause for her really juicy monologue at
Academy screenings. Everyone loves Helen Mirren, and she makes total sense as a
lazy filler nominee. I think she’ll miss out to the passion picks, but never
underestimate the Academy’s love for old British women being cheeky.
Fox
Searchlight’s other pony in the race is Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild. She looked
like a strong contender from Sundance on, but she failed to register at any of
the big end-of-year awards. The problem is that she is 9 years old. Children
getting Oscar nominations is nothing new, but she would be the youngest ever in
the Best Actress category. It makes sense to me that fans of the film will put
her at number one in Best Actress as well. She is that movie in a way that most other actresses from Best Picture
contenders are not. The performance is definitely strong enough on its own terms,
but it just seems like the actors branch will have a hard time taking her
seriously. A number of Academy members have publicly supported her - most
notably Oprah, and we all know better than to bet against Oprah. I wouldn’t be
shocked if she snuck in anyway. It would be crazy to have both her and Riva as
the youngest and oldest nominees ever in the same category. The only other
feasible option is Rachel Weisz for The
Deep Blue Sea, who won the New York Film Critics award and was nominated by
the Globes. Ultimately, that movie is too small and arty to really catch on,
but she is a glamorous Oscar winner who happens to be married to James Bond.
She could pull it off, but it would be an upset.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De
Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip
Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee
Jones, Lincoln
Christoph
Waltz, Django Unchained
Alt: Javier
Bardem, Skyfall
I am 99.9% sure that this isn’t right, but I don’t know
how to fix it. Give me your thoughts if you feel compelled. The only one of
these I feel good about is Tommy Lee Jones, who is probably our winner. There
might be a scene at the Academy Awards if Leo DiCaprio loses another Oscar to
Tommy Lee Jones, but it just makes sense. I feel pretty good about Philip
Seymour Hoffman as well, if only because they’ve given him lazy filler
nominations in the past and this is his most acclaimed performance since he won
for Capote. I don’t think The Master is the Academy’s cup of tea,
but the fact that Hoffman was the only person from that cast to get a SAG
nomination is telling.
I have a
pretty strong feeling that Alan Arkin is in, even though he doesn’t do a lot in
that film. If Argo is a Best Picture
contender, someone from that cast has to get in. Both of Ben Affleck’s other
directorial efforts earned acting nominations. Arkin is the closest thing to a
standout in the large and impressive cast, and the Academy enjoys nominating
crotchety old man comic relief performances in this category. Hell, Alan Arkin
already won an Oscar for this very performance in Little Miss Sunshine. He makes so much sense on paper, especially
with his Globe, BAFTA and SAG nominations. Robert De Niro seems like the one
from this group who could miss, but I believe that the Academy will want to
reward him for returning to respectability after two decades of garbage. He is
a living legend and a two-time Oscar winner, after all. The Globes snubbed him,
but that’s probably because he pissed all over them in his acceptance speech
for his lifetime achievement award a few years back. In the end, I think the
overall support for SLP coupled with De Niro’s reputation will pull him in.
Django is my cause of grief
here. There are too many strong supporting performances and absolutely no
consensus over who was the best. I fear they may cancel each other out, but my
gut tells me that someone from Django is
getting in. I’m going with Waltz, even though that gives me a category with
five former Oscar winners. He basically gives a leading performance. He is in
many ways the heart of Django Unchained,
and we miss him as much as Django does when he exits the film. It’s unfair to
pit Waltz and Leonardo DiCaprio against each other when Waltz has twice the
screen-time of DiCaprio. DiCaprio
makes a ton of sense as well. He gives the classic villainous performance that
typically does well in Oscar’s Supporting Actor category. It’s a complete
transformation for him, and it is not exactly a secret that he is hungry for an
Oscar. If he makes it, he is a threat for the win. Both Waltz and DiCaprio got
in at the Globes and neither made it at SAG. Waltz made it in at BAFTA, which
is what I think will happen at the Oscars. They both also have to contend with
Samuel L. Jackson, who also has great reviews and a contingent of supporters.
There are several others who could sneak in. Javier Bardem has BAFTA
and SAG nominations for Skyfall. I
hesitate to include him because no one has ever been nominated for acting in a
Bond film, but there is something classier and more prestigious about Skyfall than the average Bond outing. It
also helps that Bardem is revered among his peers, and I mentioned earlier that
villains do well in Supporting Actor. I’m not sure how much of an advantage
being a respected Oscar winner is for Bardem when he’s competing against Tommy
Lee Jones, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Robert De Niro. It’s a crowded field,
and it might be too stacked with conventional Oscar-y roles for something as
wild as a Bond villain to make it. I think he would need to be as undeniable as
Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight to
overcome that kind of genre bias, and I don’t think he is.
The most likely non-Oscar nominee to break through is Matthew McConaughey
for Magic Mike. I know it sounds
crazy, but he had a really great year and has some prestigious awards under his
belt. Both the New York Film Critics Circle and the National Society of Film
Critics recognized him, which is a huge deal for an actor in something as
populist as Magic Mike. I think it’s
incredibly bizarre than he won highbrow critics’ awards but didn’t get
nominated by SAG or the Globes. I want to put him in over Robert De Niro, but I
just don’t think the Academy is going to take that movie seriously. I would
love for him to upset. I also wouldn’t rule out Dwight Henry for Beasts of the Southern Wild. He won the
LA Film Critics award despite being a complete unknown without a ton of buzz.
He’s been overshadowed by Wallis in the general reception of the film, but I
can see the film’s supporters pushing him to a nomination. I can also see Ewan
McGregor making it out of nowhere for The
Impossible. He’s well-liked and connected, and he has never been nominated
before. Angelina Jolie has been leading the campaign to push him, though most
of the film’s attention has gone to Naomi Watts. He actually has way more to do
than she does, and I’m surprised that he hasn’t gotten much buzz. In my dreams,
Eddie Redmayne is a contender for Les
Miserables, but I think I’m on that train by myself.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field,
Lincoln
Anne
Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole
Kidman, The Paperboy
Alt: Maggie
Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
This
category is bleak. Anne Hathaway is steamrolling her way to victory due to both
Les Miz and her acclaimed work in The Dark Knight Rises. I accepted a long
time ago that Anne Hathaway was destined to win an Oscar, so let’s just get it
over with now. She hasn’t been shy about her insatiable desire for an Oscar.
The only woman who could unseat her is Sally Field. It’s so bizarre that Sally
Field has two Oscars, and it would be even more bizarre for her to win three.
Therefore, it would be fairly shocking for Field to triumph even if Lincoln totally sweeps. I would kind of
love it though. The only other set in stone nominee is Helen Hunt for The Sessions, even though nobody cares
about that movie. There just aren’t many other options. She is respected in the
industry even though she has done nothing of note after her Oscar win other
than a short “directing” career. This woman managed to win four Emmys for “Mad
About You” of all things, after all. I think Hollywood is, for whatever reason,
glad to have her back.
Perhaps it’s
wishful thinking, but I really think Nicole Kidman is in. You just can’t argue
with the Globe and SAG nominations. The problem is that the movie is garbage
and I cannot imagine an Academy member actually sitting through it. She pees on
Zac Efron and has psychic sex with John Cusack. The Paperboy was the laughing stock of Cannes, but Nicole got great
individual reviews and was commended for stretching herself. She definitely
wants the nomination and has mounted an impressive self-campaign. She’s admired
enough to convince voters to at least check out the movie, and in this barren
field I think she will command enough support for a nomination. I’m giving the
final spot to Amy Adams, just because she makes a lot of sense on paper. She is
a well-liked three-time Oscar nominee in an acclaimed film and has two big
critics’ awards and nominations from the Globes and BAFTA for this performance.
The big problem I see is that she really doesn’t do anything of note in The Master. Where is the Oscar clip? I
can answer that question for the other four women I mentioned, but Adams is so
overshadowed by her male costars that she never has a moment to herself. I am
also taken aback by her SAG snub. When SAG doesn’t nominate a buzzed
performance in a film they’ve obviously seen, it usually means something. In a
different field, I’d have Adams out. I just don’t think the alternatives are
strong enough to replace her. She is dangerously drifting into Glenn Close
territory with yet another Oscar nomination that she has no chance of turning
into a win.
It takes
some searching to find possible spoilers. Maggie Smith took Amy Adams’ spot in
the SAG lineup for The Best Exotic
Marigold Hotel. The movie was a sleeper hit, and God knows everyone loves
Maggie Smith playing herself. She is on a roll with back-to-back Emmy wins for
“Downton Abbey.” I would put her in over Adams if not for her bizarre BAFTA
snub. That movie is tailor made for that organization, and Maggie Smith is a
five-time BAFTA winner. If they didn’t bite, I doubt the Academy will. If the
Academy is hell-bent on having a Dame at the ceremony, Judi Dench could make it
for Skyfall. She has some juicy
material, and the movie is all about her in a strange way. She’s also going
blind and may never act again. As much as the Academy loves Judi Dench, again I
think that they’re too snobby to nominate Bond in any major categories. It’s
also strange that Dench didn’t get a SAG nomination and Bardem did. Maybe she
really isn’t on the radar. She got a BAFTA nomination for this, but as this is
her 27th BAFTA nod (to put it into perspective, she only has six
Oscar nods), I don’t think it means anything. They nominated her just last year
for doing literally nothing in My Week
with Marilyn. I doubt either of the Dames would bother showing up at the
Oscars this year anyway.
The only
non-Oscar nominee on the radar is Ann Dowd for Compliance. She has turned heads by launching a completely
self-funded campaign without any help from her studio. Her performance was
acclaimed, and she has a major critics’ win to her name (National Board of
Review.) The story is inspiring, and I can see the actors branch responding to
it. Demian Bichir and Jacki Weaver pulled off surprise nominations for
little-seen movies in the past two years. So why not Ann Dowd in this deserted
field? The problem in Dowd’s case is that her movie is uncomfortable to sit
through. I can handle a lot as a viewer, but I had difficulty making it to the
end of Compliance. Dowd is terrific
in the film, and it would be a deserved nomination. But if Shame and We Need to Talk
About Kevin were too uncomfortable for Academy members to watch for very
buzzed performances last year, then I don’t think they will embrace Compliance for a complete no-name.
Best Original Screenplay
Amour
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
Alt: Looper
As I’ve said
many times before, the writers branch is the one of the wildest of the
Academy’s voting factions. That said, this year seems oddly predictable for
them. Zero Dark Thirty is the
frontrunner of the moment, though I wonder how the upcoming Senate
investigation will affect its chances. Mark Boal already won for The Hurt Locker, so I can see the
Academy passing him over this time. Either way, he’ll be nominated. Tarantino
will once again be his biggest competition. Had Tarantino not already won an
Oscar, I would be more inclined to bet against Boal repeating. However, I
wouldn’t be surprised to see Django prevail
here. The other sure thing is Wes Anderson for Moonrise Kingdom. As I said before, this is his best-reviewed film
since The Royal Tenenbaums, and that
was indeed his last film to get a screenwriting nomination. He very well might
be a threat for the win if Moonrise
Kingdom is a Best Picture nominee.
Despite the
gradually cooling reception for The
Master, this is the nomination I am most confident that it will get. The
writers branch has been very kind to Paul Thomas Anderson since Boogie Nights, and I would be shocked if
he missed this year. Given the writers branch’s inclination to go arty and
foreign, I think Amour is the fifth
nominee. There appears to be widespread industry support for the film, and this
would be a nice way to recognize Michael Haneke (since we all know it’s going
to lose Best Foreign Language Film because that category is always terrible.)
Looper is the likeliest spoiler, and it
has been recognized fairly consistently for its screenplay all awards season
long. I think it misses because the writers branch is fairly elitist, and
sci-fi is really not their thing. However, they have awarded some slightly more
sophisticated sci-fi in recent years (Inception
and District 9), which bodes well
for Looper. Maybe it will finally
break the Joseph Gordon Levitt curse! (for those of you playing at home, that
refers to the buzzed screenplays of both (500)
Days of Summer and 50/50 ultimately
being snubbed by the Academy. Obviously JGL is the link between those two
films.) That just about sums it up for me. Flight
is a possibility by virtue of being a Writers Guild nominee, but I just don’t
think anyone cares or loves it that much. The
Cabin in the Woods got some attention from critics’ awards groups, but the
Academy is definitely waaaaay too snobby for that.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Alt: The Perks of Being a Wallflower
This one
also seems pretty easy. The writers branch is often not kind to sweeping epics
or Spielberg, but the Lincoln screenplay
has snob appeal thanks to Pulitzer- and Tony-winning playwright Tony Kushner’s
name on it. I think he wins even if Lincoln
loses Best Picture. Silver Linings
Playbook and Argo are two Best
Picture contenders that are right up the writers branch’s alley. Neither is
missing.
Life of Pi is an interesting case, as
the script has been the most criticized element of the film. However, the novel
was considered to be unadaptable. I think the writers branch will acknowledge
the skill and hard work that went into pulling it off. It’s also worth noting
that acclaimed literary adaptations are a writers branch favorite. It follows
that we’ll at least have one indie pick in here, and Beasts certainly fits the bill as a Best Picture contender with a
Sundance pedigree. The Perks of Being a
Wallflower could realistically replace either of the films I mentioned
despite not having a shot at any other category. Stephen Chbosky adapted his
own acclaimed novel, and the film benefits from positive buzz because it was a
hell of a lot better than anyone thought it was going to be. It keeps popping
up on critics’ end-of-year lists and got a Writers Guild nomination.
The other
Best Picture contender in this field is Les
Miserables, which is almost certainly not getting nominated. Though the
adaptation was a big and impressive undertaking, the writers branch has not
embraced stage musical adaptations recently. The Sessions would make a lot of sense here had the public at large
embraced the film the same way the Sundance audience did. If The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel makes it,
don’t say I didn’t warn you.
