Emmy Nomination Predictions Part 2 - Comedy Series

Don't mind if I do!

Outstanding Comedy Series

“Arrested Development” (Netflix)

“The Big Bang Theory” (CBS)

“Girls” (HBO)

“Modern Family” (ABC)

 “30 Rock” (NBC)

“Veep” (HBO)

Alternate: “Louie” (FX)

Unlike in the drama categories, the networks’ prospects in the Comedy Series category are quite good. Three-time reigning champion “Modern Family” is definitely in. However, I think its winning streak is done. Critics have cooled on it and ratings, while still good, are going down. There is not a clear heir to the Comedy Series throne, but there are some options. “30 Rock” won for its first three seasons and has been nominated every year of its run. Critics hailed its farewell season as a triumphant return to form, and I could see voters giving it a farewell Emmy.

I could also see them going shamelessly commercial and giving it to “The Big Bang Theory.” The number one comedy on TV is so popular that its syndicated reruns on TBS regularly beat new programming on the networks in ratings. It will never be fashionable to like that show (notice that it never gets writing or directing nominations), but critics agreed that this season was probably its strongest. In a time when ratings are on the decline, it may be time to reward one of the few bona fide hits on TV.

The fashionable choice would no doubt be “Girls,” which ATAS really embraced in its first season. As HBO’s big comedy push, it’s definitely getting nominated again. However, I’m not totally sold on its winning potential. This season was divisive, and the show might skew too young to get the widespread support it needs for a Series victory. I still wouldn’t count it out.

 Now, on to the nominees who won’t win. “Veep” blindsided the entire industry last year by getting a Comedy Series nomination. It benefitted from Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ tour-de-force lead performance and, of course, HBO’s considerable financial backing. Last year might have been a fluke, but the critical buzz around the second season has been too strong to ignore. With “Curb Your Enthusiasm” off the air this season, HBO was able to push an even stronger awards campaign for “Veep.” At this point, I’d be very surprised if it were snubbed.

The last spot is a tight race between three strong contenders. I am giving the edge to “Arrested Development.” It’s safe to say that this show’s Netflix comeback was one of the year’s most anticipated television events. The critical and popular reception was mixed at best, but the “Arrested Development” brand has appreciated in its seven years off the air. Even when it suffered chronically poor ratings, the show was nominated for Comedy Series every year it was on the air and even won for its first season. Netflix ran a great and aggressive awards campaign, and I think its fans are glad to have it back even in slightly substandard form. It stands to reason that the people who always voted for it will vote for it again, and it’s likely gained new fans since it was on the air.

If critics voted for the Emmys, “Louie” would win, and it wouldn’t even be close. It’s not like the ATAS has totally ignored it. Just last year, it managed nominations in acting, writing, and directing, and even won for writing. Its problem thus far has been cracking the coveted Series lineup. Part of the problem is FX. The other, bigger part is that it’s very low budget. Its low cost per episode pleases the network, but it likely does not appeal to ATAS’ broad base of technicians and craftsmen who would rather vote for shows that would actually employ them. It doesn’t help that it’s been nearly a year since this show was on the air. I sincerely hope that this is the year that “Louie” breaks through, but I’m not holding my breath.

The other strong contender is “New Girl.” This is Fox’s only big scripted series push this season, and the network has a very strong Emmy track record. Despite missing the Comedy Series category, “New Girl” did very well in its first season, with acting and directing nominations. Ratings were down this year, but it ended up as one of the most critically acclaimed comedies of the season. Fox certainly seems to be pumping a lot of marketing dollars into this awards campaign, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it pay off.

For as strong as the top eight contenders are, there aren’t many conceivable spoilers. If Emmy voters are feeling nostalgic, former winner “The Office” could be back in for its farewell season. “Parks and Recreation” remains a critical darling, but its snub last year probably means that its one Comedy Series nomination two years ago was just a fluke. “Enlightened” deserves recognition, but HBO has pretty much ignored that one in its Emmy campaign blitz. This year is a bit odd in that there isn’t a buzzy breakout comedy. “The Mindy Project” is probably the closest thing we have, but that doesn’t stand much of a chance.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"

Jason Bateman, "Arrested Development"

Don Cheadle, "House of Lies"

Louis CK, "Louie"
Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men"
Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"

Alternate: Jake Johnson, "New Girl"

This is probably the bleakest category in the Emmy race. For several years now, it has been a struggle to put together a feasible list of contenders. Last year’s winner was Jon Cryer, a former perennial nominee in Supporting who wisely tested the waters in Lead for the first time. He probably won on sympathy for having to put up with Charlie Sheen, and his winning days are (hopefully) done. However, he’s probably back for this season at the very least.

Jim Parsons won the two years prior to Cryer’s category switch, and I’d be rather shocked if he missed given his show’s extreme popularity. Alec Baldwin won the two years before that, and has been nominated for every season of “30 Rock” thus far. He’ll be back, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win one more for the last season. Louis CK is probably a lock as well whether or not his show gets a Comedy Series nod.

I really start to struggle after those four. I think Jason Bateman is probably in even though he was by no stretch of the imagination the lead of this season of “Arrested Development.” Although his highlight episodes of this season of “Arrested Development” were probably the weakest of everyone’s, I’m banking on him because he has been nominated for this show before and, well, there aren’t many other options. It helps that he had a hit movie this year.

I’m giving the last spot to Don Cheadle, mostly because he was nominated last year. I don’t think anyone really cares about or likes “House of Lies,” but he’s an Oscar nominee and a movie star by TV standards. It seems like a classic one-and-done nomination, but this category lacks strong newcomers to edge him out, and perennial nominee Larry David isn’t eligible this year. Cheadle also has Showtime in his corner, and they are no slouches at Emmy campaigning. He will probably get in by the skin of his teeth.

I could really be underestimating Jake Johnson for “New Girl,” who is making the leap from the super crowded Supporting category to the friendlier Lead field. He had a great season, and he’s been a focal point of Fox’s Emmy campaign for the show. Honestly, I just felt weird predicting three acting nominations for “New Girl” and having it still miss Comedy Series. It’s a silly concern, but the Emmys don’t usually work that way. I could definitely be wrong.

The other real threat is Matt LeBlanc for “Episodes.” He made the cut two years ago, but that show lost all of its buzz in the season that it was off the air. The second season came and went virtually unnoticed. Matt LeBlanc is someone who can get probably get in on name recognition in this field, but I’d be surprised if much of ATAS watched his show this year.

Besides that, there isn’t much to talk about. Johnny Galecki was nominated for “The Big Bang Theory” two years ago, and I suppose he could be back. Matthew Perry probably signed on to “Go On” thinking it would be his Emmy vehicle, but alas, it’s already beem canceled. After “Community” finally got a writing nod last year, perhaps it is at last time for Joel McHale to get an Emmy nomination. Probably not though, especially with all the negative buzz surrounding the show’s fourth season. In my dreams, Adam Scott is a contender for “Parks and Recreation.”

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Zooey Deschanel, "New Girl"

Lena Dunham, "Girls"

Tina Fey, "30 Rock"

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"

Melissa McCarthy, "Mike & Molly"

Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"

Alternate: Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"

Conversely, this field is so crowded that we actually got seven nominees last year. The same seven are in contention again, but unless there is another tie, someone has to go. Last year’s winner, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, looks set to repeat now that her show is nearly as adored as she is. After six consecutive nominations - including one win - Tina Fey will probably make it back for the last season of “30 Rock.”

Lena Dunham is probably the most powerful woman in television now that “30 Rock” is off the air, which means that she’s getting nominated until “Girls” is over. Zooey Deschanel will likewise ride her media darling status to another nomination and will probably be an Emmy mainstay for a while. Although her show seems to be falling out of Emmy favor, Amy Poehler is beloved enough in the TV world to pull off another nomination for “Parks and Recreation,” even though it’s sadly clear that she is never winning for that.

The last spot is tough, and bizarrely enough it seems to come down to two women who have recently won this category. I’m giving the edge to Melissa McCarthy. Though “Mike & Molly” is hardly a runaway success, her star power is impossible to deny at this point. She has headlined two $100 million+ grossing films just this year and recently found herself on the Forbes Celebrity 100 for the first time. When a TV actor enjoys that kind of success, it’s usually too much for Emmy voters to pass up. At the end of the day, she’s funny and people like her. That’s usually enough. At the very least, she will get a Guest Actress nomination for hosting “Saturday Night Live.”

Things would be easier for McCarthy were she not competing against Emmy darling Edie Falco. I have a hard time reading “Nurse Jackie.” It’s obviously not the awards magnet it used to be, but it did pull off two acting nominations last year. It’s just not a show that people really talk about anymore, despite Showtime’s best marketing efforts. I think this is the year that it falls out of the top categories. However, Falco’s name on the ballot may be tough for Emmy voters to pass up.

It will be difficult for any other actresses to break into this strong field. Laura Dern for “Enlightened” is my sentimental choice, but again, there is just no HBO push behind that show. Martha Plimpton will still pick up votes for “Raising Hope,” but she’s probably done getting nominated after her snub last year. The only new option with a prayer is Mindy Kaling for “The Mindy Project.” I don’t think this is her year, but she is someone to watch for next season, especially if the critical consensus on her show keeps improving.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Will Arnett, "Arrested Development"

Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"

Jesse Tyler Ferguson, "Modern Family"

Max Greenfield, "New Girl"

Bill Hader, "Saturday Night Live:

Eric Stonestreet, "Modern Family"

Alternate: Ed O'Neill, "Modern Family"

The male cast of “Modern Family” has had a stranglehold on this category for the last three seasons. I think this is the year that it starts to lose major category nominations, and this should be the first group to take a hit. The two previous winners – Ty Burrell and Eric Stonestreet – are safe for the foreseeable future. The other two – Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Ed O’Neill – are in danger. I’m predicting that only one misses this year. Ferguson is the least showy of the bunch, but he is one half of America’s favorite gay TV couple. I imagine that most of the people voting for Eric Stonestreet are probably voting for him as well. Therefore, I think he has another season left in him. Despite being a well-known TV veteran, Ed O’Neill has never had the best luck with the Emmys. In fact, he was the only one of this group to not receive a nomination for the first season of “Modern Family.” I think he is the first to get the boot.

After that, there probably won’t be anything new or exciting in this category due to the lack of buzzy new comedies. Max Greenfield should be back thanks to the positive buzz around “New Girl.” Bill Hader’s nomination last year was a surprise, but I think he is going to repeat. This was his last year on “Saturday Night Live,” and Stefon was the most popular recurring SNL character in years. His emotional goodbye episode should be enough to convince voters to go for him again.

The last slot probably belongs to Will Arnett, who has become an Emmy darling in the years since “Arrested Development” was on TV. He was nominated for that show’s third season, and he arguably had the best material of the whole cast this year. He does face some internal competition, particularly from Jeffrey Tambor. Tambor is a multiple Emmy nominee, including two times for his work on “Arrested Development.” However, season four’s George, Sr. episodes were not particularly well received. If he makes it, it will likely be on name recognition.

As is usual with the supporting categories, there are some possible coattails nominees that depend on how their respective series are received. If this is the year for “The Big Bang Theory” to win it all, Simon Helberg might finally get nominated. If “Girls” gains momentum from last year, Adam Driver could be in. If “Veep” really catches on, Tony Hale could make it. Or perhaps the Emmy gods will smile on us and perennial snubee Nick Offerman could be nominated for “Parks and Recreation.” There are a ton of strong and worthy options just waiting for the “Modern Family” block to disintegrate.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Mayim Bialik, "The Big Bang Theory"

Julie Bowen, "Modern Family"

Kaley Cuoco, "The Big Bang Theory"

Sofia Vergara, "Modern Family"

Jessica Walter, "Arrested Development"

Allison Williams, "Girls"

Alternate: Jane Krakowski, "30 Rock"

As last year proved, Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series is consistently one of the wildest and least predictable Emmy categories. Two-time reigning winner Julie Bowen is locked in, and she probably will be until “Modern Family” is off the air. Her costar Sofia Vergara is almost certainly in as well, as she is the most famous and recognizable cast member of the show.

After that, things are much less clear. Mayim Bialik’s nomination last year came as a surprise to many, and it was perhaps a sign of growing Emmy support for “The Big Bang Theory.” She definitely has the material to make it back this year, and I think the show is probably strong enough to pull another nomination in this category. Kaley Cuoco moved herself from Lead to Supporting last season, and this might be the year that it pays off.

With the return of “Arrested Development,” I think Jessica Walter will probably get nominated. She made it in during the original run of the show, and Lucille has become more of an audience favorite in its years off the air. Walter will probably be that show’s best shot at a win, unless ATAS decides to go with Julie Bowen yet again. I’m unsure on the last spot, but I think it’s probably time for “Girls” to start getting more acting nominations. There’s probably just room for one, and Allison Williams had some Emmy baity material this year. The internal competition will be strong for her, especially from Zosia Mamet. Either could feasibly make it. If both do, look out for “Girls” as a contender for the Series win. If neither does, well……..I won’t be too sad.

The entire internet seems to think that Jane Krakowski will be back for the last season of “30 Rock,” but I am skeptical. As I’ve pointed out before, it’s tough to come back when you’ve already been snubbed. Perhaps there will be sentimentalism at play, but if Emmy beloved shows gain acting nominations for their final seasons, those spots usually go to cast members who have never been nominated before (think Kristin Davis in “Sex and the City”). It’s not like ATAS has been enamored of Krakowski’s performance on the show. She didn’t even get her first nomination until after “30 Rock” had already won Comedy Series twice. I certainly hope I’m wrong because I love her, but I don’t see it.

I have no idea what to do with Merritt Wever. I think it is safe to say that even the savviest Emmy watcher did not see that nomination coming last year. My gut says it was a fluke. “Nurse Jackie”’s days as an Emmy player seem to be just about over. However, I thought the same thing last year. Watch her get in again and win this time, because….why the hell not.

There are, of course, a few potential spoilers. Betty White is ATAS’ favorite person ever, and frankly I’m shocked that she was snubbed last year for “Hot in Cleveland.” Now that she’s out, I doubt she can get back in, but rules were made to be broken by Betty White. The Series contenders don’t have many Supporting Actress candidates that I haven’t mentioned, but Anna Chlumsky is possible if “Veep” performs well across the board. One can never underestimate old film actresses – in this case Cloris Leachman in “Raising Hope” and Diane Ladd in “Enlightened.” It seems weird not to have a “Saturday Night Live” woman in here, but nobody has emerged to Kristen Wiig status. Kate McKinnon is great, but it will be a couple of years before ATAS pays attention. 

Emmy Nominations Predictions Pt. 1 - Drama Series

Serving Claire Danes cry face realness

Hello friends! Just when you thought awards season was over, I'm back to tell you that you were painfully wrong. We are less than one week away from one of my favorite days of the year: the Emmy nominations! Because I love nothing more than predicting entertainment awards, I am going to tell you how it is going to go down.

I am very good at predicting the Oscars. I am terrible at predicting the Emmys. Why? The Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS) is a very mysterious and idiosyncratic group that usually does whatever it damn well pleases. Unlike the Motion Picture Academy, it pays no attention to groups like the Golden Globes or the Screen Actors Guild when picking its annual nominees. They tend to go for the same shows and actors over and over again until one day they're sick of them without any warning. Somehow, this group with a much more defined and limited selection of options that the Motion Picture Academy manages some zany, left-field choices every season. Who saw "Veep" getting a Comedy Series nomination last year? Or Merrit Wever in Supporting Actress for "Nurse Jackie"? Or the entire cast of "Downton Abbey" getting individual recognition? It's half the fun, and why I enjoy following the Emmys, even when I'm usually very wrong.

Without further ado, let's begin. I will tackle Drama today, Comedy tomorrow(?), and Movies/Miniseries on Monday with look at the Variety and Reality categories(??). I will keep the focus to the Series and big four acting categories in the interest of time. I also find the writing/directing categories to be even tougher to call than the rest, so I will avoid embarrassing myself. 

Outstanding Drama Series

“Breaking Bad” (AMC)

“Downton Abbey” (PBS)

“Game of Thrones” (HBO)

“Homeland” (Showtime)

 House of Cards” (Netflix)

“Mad Men” (AMC)

Alternate: “Boardwalk Empire” (HBO)

When Emmy voters like something, they really, really like it. This bodes well for “Homeland” after its sweep of Series/Actor/Actress/Writing at last year’s Emmy ceremony, even though most critics agree that it went through a sophomore slump this season. It also bodes well for AMC’s pair of Emmy darlings. “Breaking Bad” in particular seems to be at the height of its popularity and acclaim, and it is the closest thing to a lock in this category besides “Homeland.” After giving it the Drama Series trophy four years in a row, Emmy voters dumped “Mad Men” in a big way last year as its fifth season shockingly won zero of its seventeen nominations. I expect “Mad Men” to figure less and less into the big Emmy races over its final two seasons, but it should still have enough support for a Series nomination this year.

“Game of Thrones” is unquestionably the zeitgeist show of the moment, and its stunning penultimate episode seems to have eclipsed earlier complaints about this season’s relatively slower pace. As the flagship HBO drama du jour, it’s virtually guaranteed a nomination and is probably a contender for the win. Critics have jumped ship on “Downton Abbey,” but it remains one of the few water-cooler dramas on TV in a time when viewership is becoming more and more fragmented. Emmy voters have always been suckers for all things British, so “Downton Abbey” is probably a safe bet here.

The last spot is pretty open, but I’m following the buzz and going with  “House of Cards.” Netflix has jumped head-first into the world of Emmy campaigning with a surprisingly aggressive media blitz for the show. The older-skewing voting body might be wary of new distribution methods, but Netflix has made it very easy for all of ATAS to have access to “House of Cards.” Though the critical reception was less than ecstatic, people are definitely still talking about it a good four months after the entire season was released at once. If nothing else, the involvement of David Fincher and Kevin Spacey gives the project an air of Oscar prestige that I think Emmy voters will have a tough time ignoring.

I have “Boardwalk Empire” falling out after receiving nominations in this category for its first two seasons, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it in. HBO is a master at Emmy campaigning, and this was the show’s most acclaimed season yet. It’s also a handsome period piece that appeals to the TV Academy’s broad base of technical types.  I just don’t get the impression that anyone in the industry really loves this show. It has always drawn admiration, but it seems that each new slate of TV dramas pushes this one further and further out of the public consciousness.

“House of Cards” isn’t the only shiny new show in the race. “The Americans” is another critically acclaimed freshman series with a chance here. Unfortunately, that show’s Emmy chances lie in the hands of FX, which is notoriously bad at awards campaigning despite its strong lineup of original programming. “The Newsroom” has all the trappings of prestige with HBO backing it, Aaron Sorkin running the show, and a topical slant to the subject matter. I would be sold on its Emmy chances if it were actually, you know, good, but that has never stopped Emmy voters from picking low-hanging fruit in the past.

If my predictions come true, this will be the second year in a row without a network show in the Drama Series category. “The Good Wife” stands the strongest chance of making the cut, but it was snubbed last year after getting Drama Series nominations for its first two seasons. With very few exceptions, Emmy voters don’t return to shows that they’ve already dumped. The only other network show that is even in the running is maybe “Scandal,” but that one is probably too soapy. New and acclaimed network dramas like “Hannibal” and “Elementary” are not popular enough and a little too far from the Emmy comfort zone to break through.

On the cable front, “Justified” seemed like it was on the cusp of making the Drama Series lineup two years ago, but again, FX has absolutely no clue how to sell that show to Emmy voters. I don’t think this year will be any different despite positive buzz and strong reviews. “The Walking Dead” is a potential spoiler. It is the most-watched drama on TV in the coveted 18-49 demo, and AMC has become very adept at the Emmy game. It’s hard to imagine a zombie show in the Outstanding Drama Series category, but it wouldn’t be the first popular genre show to be embraced by the Emmys (“Star Trek: The Next Generation,” “The X-Files,” “True Blood.”) If anything I haven’t mentioned somehow gets nominated, I quit.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire”

Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”

Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom”

Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”

Damian Lewis, “Homeland”

Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards”

Alternate: Michael C. Hall, “Dexter”

Unless you’re Kyra Sedgwick, the Emmys never fail to nominate last year’s acting winners (unless, of course, they won their Emmy for their death episode). This means that Damien Lewis is as locked as can be. Even though everyone complained about his story this season, he has a couple of episode submissions that could easily win him another Emmy. Sorry. Likewise, three-time Emmy winner Bryan Cranston chewed as much scenery as ever in this season of “Breaking Bad,” so he is looking very good for a nomination.

Jon “always the bridesmaid” Hamm should get his sixth consecutive nomination for “Mad Men,” although it has become painfully obvious to even the most diehard “Mad Men” fans that he is just never going to win at this point. Though “Boardwalk Empire” is likely on its way out as an Emmy darling, Steve Buscemi still had enough baity material to land a third nomination for the show. He’s well-liked enough to coast along as a filler nominee for the foreseeable future.

Emmy voters always pay attention when movie stars do TV. This is especially true for actors with Oscars, and Kevin Spacey has two of those. Even if “House of Cards” fails to catch on with ATAS, Spacey is too Emmy-baity to ignore. It is the kind of Acting with a capital A that voters tend to respond to. He might even prove to be Lewis’ biggest challenge for the win. I’m giving the last spot to Daniels, who is also a recognizable star in a vehicle that is very much tailored to his strengths. 

There are a number of spoilers, of course. Michael C. Hall has been nominated five times in a row, but Emmy voters dumped “Dexter” in a big way last season, and I don’t see them going back. Since Hall is obviously never going to win at this point, I think it’s finally his time to get the boot. They did eventually stop nominating Hugh Laurie for “House,” after all.  Still, he’s a name, and he would make sense as a lazy filler nominee. Hugh Bonneville for “Downton Abbey” also fits the bill of lazy filler, especially if “The Newsroom” doesn’t catch on. “Downton” is an actors’ favorite, as evidenced by its jaw-dropping six acting nominations last season. Despite his lack of good material this year, the show’s fans could rally behind him again.

If ATAS really warms up to “The Americans,” then Matthew Rhys is a contender here. Not to beat a dead horse here, but with FX behind him, it’s probably not happening. Ditto Timothy Olyphant for “Justified,” who probably doesn’t have much of a chance at making it back after being mercilessly snubbed last year. Kevin Bacon is on the radar for “The Following” if only because he’s famous, but the overwhelmingly negative critical consensus for the show will be hard to overcome.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Claire Danes, “Homeland”

Michelle Dockery, “Downton Abbey”

Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”

Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men”

Kerry Washington, “Scandal”

Robin Wright, “House of Cards”

Alternate: Glenn Close, “Damages”

This category is unexpectedly packed this year, which of course makes me happy. Claire Danes is a lock, and she’s probably winning again. After that, I don’t think anyone is necessarily safe. Elisabeth Moss makes sense, as she’s been nominated for “Mad Men” every year since the second season. But as I said before, “Mad Men” is losing serious steam. It’s only a matter of time before that becomes apparent in its nominations haul. I’ve always thought that Moss was a tough sell as a lead of the show, though she certainly gets more screen time than anyone besides Jon Hamm. That hasn’t hurt her in the past, but she could be vulnerable.

Julianna Margulies in an Emmy institution, and she has, of course, already won for “The Good Wife.” However, that show is also running out of awards clout, as we saw last year when it missed Drama Series. She’s probably safe for this season, but it’s only a matter of time before she goes the way of other Emmy mainstays like Mariska Hargitay and Kyra Sedgwick. Michelle Dockery was another beneficiary from last year’s “Downtown Abbey” acting love fest. Unlike Hugh Bonneville, she has become the face of the show, and she’s been very visible in the press since “Downton” fever captured the hearts of housewives across America. At the same time, she lacked traditionally Emmy-baity material this season. Her years in this category are numbered, but I think she’s probably good for another nomination while the show is still popular.

Now, let’s talk about who had very Emmy-baity material this season: Kerry Washington. “Scandal” wasn’t even close to the Emmy radar last year, but now the show is a magazine cover staple. At its center is Washington turning out stellar work every week, and people are paying attention. She also has the extra buzz factor of being the first African American actress to headline a primetime network drama series in about 40 years. She is going to be difficult to ignore, and it will be very conspicuous if ATAS does so.

I’m hesitant on the last spot, but Robin Wright makes sense if “House of Cards” proves to be as popular as I think it will be. Like Elisabeth Moss, it is a stretch to call her a lead of the show, but buzzy shows are able to pull off these kinds of nominations. The critical acclaim for her performance is there, and Netflix has done a great job of highlighting her in its media campaign. She’s been around the industry for a long time and has a reputation as a hard worker who hasn’t always had the best luck. I think there is enough support there to pull her in.

It’s probably overly optimistic of me to leave Glenn Close out. She did win twice for “Damages,” after all. I just don’t think anyone realized it was still on the air this season. It’s been about a year since the series ended at this point. Still, she’s a respected veteran with an Oscar pedigree. That helped Kathy Bates make it in for “Harry’s Law” last year even though nobody probably watched it. Close could be back for a farewell nomination.

There are tons of worthy newcomers to consider. Keri Russell is the best chance for “The Americans” to crack the top categories, and I actually wouldn’t be shocked if she pulled it off. Oscar pedigree could help Vera Farmiga sneak in for “Bates Motel,” though this is A&E’s first shot at campaigning an original series. Tatiana Maslany had the blogosphere ablaze with her stunning multi-character act in “Orphan Black,” but it’s a sci-fi show on BBC America. I can’t really think of a tougher Emmy sell, sadly (RIP Mary McDonnell in “Battlestar Galactica”). Finally, former nominee Connie Britton got great critical ink for “Nashville,” but the show turned into a small ratings fiasco and got too soapy to be taken seriously as the season progressed.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Jonathan Banks, “Breaking Bad”

Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”

Rob James-Collier, “Downton Abbey”

Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland”

Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad”

Corey Stoll, “House of Cards”

Alternate: Nikolaj Costar-Waldau, “Game of Thrones”

This category is a hot mess, and I might as well not even try. However, these six make decent sense to me. Reigning champion Aaron Paul is almost certainly in, though I would be surprised if he managed to win again. Ditto former winner Peter Dinklage, who should still be riding high on the wave of popularity for “Game of Thrones” even though he didn’t have much to do this season.

Mandy Patinkin seems like such an obvious nominee, but I thought the same thing last year when he was snubbed. I’m going to count that as a fluke and assume that “Homeland” has enough clout as the reigning Drama Series champion to get more acting nominations this year. I’m also going to assume that “Breaking Bad” now has the pull to regularly get two nominations in this category. Now that Giancarlo Espositio is off the show, it’s probably time for Jonathan Banks to finally get his Emmy nod.

“Downton Abbey” rather shockingly got two nominations in this category last year, which is certainly not outside the realm of possibility this season. I think Jim Carter and Brendan Coyle are probably out (seriously, how did they BOTH make it last year??), but it would be foolish to count out the entire male cast of “Downton Abbey.” I will refrain from spoilers, but Rob James-Collier has a VERY Emmy-baity season. Last year proved that it doesn’t really matter if no one knows his name. The “Downton” lobby is strong. It truly is amazing how well this show manages to perform with the Emmys basically on its own accord. Lord knows PBS doesn’t have the funds to launch an Emmy campaign.

The last spot is contingent upon how a number of shows are received by the voting body. Assuming that “House of Cards” is a hit, Corey Stoll is probably in. He had killer material, plus a widely publicized story that the showrunners greatly expanded his role because he was so good. He also has a submission tape that could probably win him an Emmy if he were nominated.

I’m curious to see how “Game of Thrones does in the acting categories. Dinklage was the only acting nominee for the first two seasons, probably because the cast is so large and impressive that it’s hard to single anyone out. If this is its Emmy-winning season, it will probably pick up a couple more acting nods. Nikolaj Costar-Waldau had his showiest and most human season yet, and he is certainly a strong spoiler here.

It feels odd not including anyone from “Mad Men.” Perennial nominee John Slattery was snubbed last season for Jared Harris, who is obviously no longer on the show. Slattery could certainly make it back in, but I think it’s likelier that “Mad Men” has lost its Supporting Actor spot for good. Vincent Kartheiser seemed to be on the verge of breaking in to this category in the past, but he just didn’t have the material this year.

If “The Newsroom” breaks into the top category (or maybe even if it doesn’t), expect to see Sam Waterston get a nomination here. If “Boardwalk Empire” is stronger than I suspect, Bobby Cannavale could be recognized for his great arc this season. If Emmy voters are feeling sentimental, Larry Hagman could get a posthumous nomination for “Dallas.” Really, the possibilities here are frighteningly endless.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife”

Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad”

Christina Hendricks, “Mad Men”

Elizabeth McGovern, “Downton Abbey”

Monica Potter, “Parenthood”

Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey”

Alternate: Michelle Fairley, “Game of Thrones”

Maggie Smith is obviously getting nominated for playing herself, as always. Hell, I wouldn’t be shocked if she won again. It won’t be as easy as it was last year. After she finally broke through to the nominations last season, Anna Gunn is probably a lock. She definitely has the material to win if she chooses her episode submissions wisely.

“Downton Abbey” also received two nominations in this category last season, though I doubt Joanne Froggatt (again…..who??) manages to come back. Elizabeth McGovern wisely submitted herself in the Supporting category after missing out on a Lead Actress nom last year. Her season three material was probably the best she’s gotten over the course of the series, so she is looking quite good for a nomination.

Christina Hendricks is a default nominee at this point in “Mad Men”’s Emmy run, but I’m worried for her. Fans bemoaned the lack of Joan this season, and she didn’t have a showcase episode like “The Other Woman” to put her in contention for the win. She will probably coast by on name recognition, but I don’t think she’s safe.

“The Good Wife” lost all of its Supporting Actor nominations last year, and I expect it to start losing Supporting Actress slots this year. Christine Baranski and Archie Panjabi both made it for the show’s first three seasons, but I think this is the year that one of them is dropped. Though Panjabi has won an Emmy for this show, I think she’s out. Her arc this season was critically panned, and then she was put on the backburner once it was resolved. Baranski had a much better season, and she is a hard working veteran who gets Emmy love whenever she’s on TV. I think she has another season in her before she gets the boot as well. I actually wouldn’t be surprised by any combination of one, both, or none of these women in this category.

I’m following the buzz on the last spot and giving it to Monica Potter. “Parenthood” has received little Emmy attention in its four seasons on the air, but it gets consistently strong reviews and manages to survive every wave of cancellations because NBC doesn’t have anything better. This year, Potter’s arc was impossibly Emmy-baity, and she received glowing acclaim across the board. It helps that she’s NBC’s only real push in the Drama categories, and they have money to throw behind her that niche cable networks wouldn’t. She’s certainly made the media rounds and has come across as very personable and sincere. She’s another candidate who can win if she pulls off the nomination.

This is another category to watch for “Game of Thrones.” Michelle Fairley and Emilia Clarke both had great seasons and should attract some votes. On the “Mad Men” front, January Jones had her most substantial material since season three – the last time she got an Emmy nomination. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her make it, maybe even at the expense of Christina Hendricks.

If everyone goes nuts for “Homeland,” Morena Baccarin could sneak in (please no). Similarly, a “House of Cards” love fest could translate into a nod for Kate Mara (again, please God no). And I would not rule out the possibility of the entire female cast of “Downton Abbey” getting nominated.