It's that time of year again, folks. I almost forgot about the impending Oscar ceremony thanks to the emotional trauma of figure skating in Sochi, but the awards season that refused to die is finally coming to a close. I honestly checked out a bit after Oprah was knocked out of contention, but here is how I see Sunday night shaking out. I am not including the shorts because no1curr.
Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall
Street
I can safely say that this is the most bizarre Best Picture race
I’ve seen in all my years of Oscar watching. 12 Years a Slave makes sense on paper. It’s the most critically
acclaimed film of the year, it won the Globe and the BAFTA, and it oozes
importance and gravitas. However, its overall awards season performance has
been a bit lackluster. Its Best Picture win at the Golden Globes came at the
end of a long evening that looked like a complete 12 Years a Slave shutout, and its only other win at the BAFTAs was
for Best Actor. It hasn’t won much from the industry awards other than tying Gravity for the big prize from the Producers
Guild, and it was snubbed by nearly every major critics’ awards group despite
superlative reviews. Even with the Academy, it missed seemingly slam-dunk
nominations in tech categories like Cinematography and Score, making it only
the third-most nominated film of the year. It almost feels like all the film’s
recognition has been begrudging at best.
It’s impossible to deny that there is passionate support for
12 Years a Slave. You will see it
every time someone dares to criticize any aspect of the film on the internet. I
am unsure how much of this translates to the industry. Even six months after 12 Years a Slave was deemed the Oscar
frontrunner at the Telluride film festival, industry trades report that some
Academy voters are outright refusing to watch the film. Fox Searchlight has
been playing hardball for the win, but the heavy-handed “It’s time!” campaign
will likely rub some the wrong way. Oscar voters tend to show resistance when
they feel obligated to vote for something – look no further than last year’s
preachy campaign for Lincoln that was
ultimately a big fat bust.
My gut still says that 12
Years a Slave will win Best Picture and only one or two other awards.
Though it hasn’t been a barnstorming success this Oscar season, nothing else
has managed to take its crown. Gravity has
been the closest, and it will likely have the biggest awards haul on Oscar
night. It is an international box office smash that appeals to the Academy’s
broad base of craftsmen. Is it a Best Picture movie? Despite the critical
acclaim, I’m inclined to say no. At the Globes, BAFTAs, and even the Critics’
Choice Awards, Gravity was the big
winner all night until it lost Best Picture to 12 Years a Slave in the end. There is something preventing these
voters from granting Gravity the big
prize even if they’re voting for it in seven other categories. The exception is
the Producers Guild, which mimics the Academy’s process of requiring voters to
rank the Best Picture nominees. Gravity
was able to tie 12 Years a Slave there,
which suggests that it benefits from a preferential voting system. It may not
be everyone’s favorite film, but it is probably top three for the bulk of Oscar
voters. 12 Years a Slave may have
more number one votes, but some voters are probably marking that down in last
place. In the current Best Picture system, the consensus choice wins. Could
that be Gravity? It will be a
nail-biter until the envelope is opened.
Or could it be American
Hustle? After David O. Russell’s latest overperformed on Oscar nominations
morning, I thought it would probably win Best Picture. However, it has failed
to upset 12 Years a Slave or Gravity for any of the other big
industry awards. It took the Ensemble Cast prize from SAG, but that is likely
because of how A-list it is. Still, it’s worth noting that the Academy
responded better to this film than any other group did. The last three Best
Picture winners have been very light and audience-friendly. American Hustle definitely fits the Argo mold much better than its two
closest competitors. I would guess Hustle
is in third place, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it win.
The other nominees don’t stand a chance. Moving on….
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12
Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Logic dictates against
predicting a split between Best Picture and Best Director. When you look back
at Oscar history, those two awards share a startlingly strong correlation.
Indeed, it seems as if Oscar voters just pick the same movie for both
categories. Last year was an obvious exception thanks to Ben Affleck’s shocking
snub, but once again it seems that the Best Picture and Best Director races
have become completely separated. Alfonso Cuaron simply hasn’t lost anything
major all year, including the all-important Directors Guild award. This seems
to be one of those cases where the director’s virtuosic visual accomplishment
is undeniable. I'll be surprised if Cuaron loses whether or not Gravity wins Best Picture.
The only real alternative
here is Steve McQueen. His narrative is strong, as he would be the first black
filmmaker to win the Best Director Oscar. It stands to reason that if 12 Years a Slave is really going to pull
out that Best Picture win in the end, McQueen is going to win a significant
chunk of the vote. He has even reluctantly played the campaign game, though I
think his grumpiness has hurt his cause when compared to the effortless
charisma of Alfonso Cuaron. Nearly every major awards body has been fine
snubbing McQueen while awarding his film. I think the Academy will do the same.
David O. Russell is bound to
win someday as long as he keeps getting his entire cast nominated for Oscars
every time he makes a movie. It’s important to note that venerated actor’s
directors get a lot of cred in the actor-heavy Academy. Although Russell has
tirelessly worked the campaign circuit (while sometimes putting his foot in his
mouth re: 12 Years a Slave), Cuaron
will likely be too strong to overcome unless American Hustle really is our Best Picture winner.
Best Actor
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Between the runaway success
of “True Detective” and the wild overperformance of Dallas Buyers Club on Oscar nominations morning, it is clear we are
living through the McConnaisance. After he won the Globe and the SAG, it is
difficult to imagine Matthew McConaughey losing the Oscar. He is simply the
right actor in the right role at the right time.
Chiwetel Ejiofor could prove
to be a strong challenger, especially on the heels of his BAFTA win. As the
sympathetic lead of a possible Best Picture winner, he can likely count on
votes from the film’s fans. He’s so integral to that film that I can’t imagine
someone naming 12 Years a Slave his
number one of the year and then not voting for Chiwetel Ejiofor. EJiofor has
been pounding the pavement all Oscar season for this win, but the momentum
simply seems to be in McConaughey’s favor.
There are some in the Oscar
pundit world still trying to make the case for Leonardo DiCaprio, but it is clearly not happening at this point. I just don’t think anyone in
Hollywood truly believes that he is overdue for an Oscar. He is only 40, and
Paul Newman and Al Pacino had to wait much longer than that for their pity
Oscars. The heartless bastards in the Academy even let Richard Burton and Peter O’Toole
die without winning. It’s just not happening this year, though I will always
enjoy Leo’s desperate campaigning. He really has been everywhere all season.
Speaking of desperate
campaigning, it is probably unwise to completely rule out a Bruce Dern upset.
His chances are slim, but there is a strong sympathy push behind him. Let’s see
if the old white man vote prevails!
Best Actress
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
This isn’t really worth
discussing, as Cate Blanchett is not going to lose. She seems to have escaped
the Woody Allen controversy unscathed, and she has won literally everything all
year. Poor Amy Adams really is the new Glenn Close.
The real winner is Sandra
Bullock, who has reportedly pocketed $70 million to date for Gravity thanks to some brilliant
pre-filming negotiations. Sisters are doing it for themselves!
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12
Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf
of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
The unthinkable has happened. Sorry Claire Danes, but Jared
Leto will be the first “My So-Called Life” alum to take the Oscar. He won the
Globe and the SAG, and it is clear that the Academy loved Dallas Buyers Club more than any other awards group. Everything
about his performance is pure Oscar catnip.
Barkhad Abdi rather shockingly won the BAFTA, but that
organization responded more enthusiastically to Captain Phillips than the Academy did. Still, he has to be
considered the only realistic spoiler. Bradley Cooper is a solid
number three, and he’ll probably win one of these days.
Best Supporting
Actress
Sally Hawkins, Blue
Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years
a Slave
Julia Roberts, August:
Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
This is one of the hardest categories to call, and I’m still
unsure of which way to go. There is a strong case to be made for both Jennifer
Lawrence and Lupita Nyong’o. J-Law is still the undisputed Queen of Hollywood a
year after her first Oscar win. She chews through the scenery and steals every
scene in American Hustle. It’s the
kind of performance that has a long history of success in Oscar’s Supporting
Actress category: think Marisa Tomei in My
Cousin Vinny and Mira Sorvino in Mighty
Aphrodite. Lawrence has been virtually absent from the campaign circuit
thanks to a demanding shooting schedule for the new Hunger Games movie, but that didn’t stop her from winning the Globe
and the BAFTA. American Hustle has
four acting nominations, and it’s tough imagine the film losing all four of
those. Lawrence is the film’s only real shot at an acting win, and this is a film that
actors really love. Had she not just won last year, I think she’d be the obvious
winner.
Lupita Nyong’o is an appealing choice, if only because 12 Years a Slave has to win something
besides Best Picture. She won the SAG and has been everywhere this awards
season charming all of the industry elites. She even melted Anna Wintour’s cold
heart at NY Fashion Week. Where Lawrence provides comedic relief, Nyong’o
suffers beautifully in an impossibly sympathetic role. I didn’t think much of
her performance, but it seems many in the industry have really responded to her
work. This will be another down-to-the wire nail-biter, and I can’t confidently
call it either way. My gut still says Lawrence, so I am going with that.
There is even some last minute buzz for June Squibb, which
almost makes sense given the widespread love for Nebraska. It would be a bit bizarre given how the season has played
out, but stranger things have happened. After all, Marcia Gay Harden has an Oscar for a
movie no one saw. I am still bitter about Oprah’s snub.
Best Original
Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska
This will be another nail-biter, though I’m feeling more and
more confident that American Hustle will
take it. Though there are other more traditionally “screenwriter”-y choices here, it’s
the most popular film in the category. That’s usually enough considering the
Academy-at-large is voting for this. It also helps that David O. Russell has
yet to win an Oscar, and this is an easy way to reward him, as he is likely not
winning Best Director. I think his BAFTA win signifies a shift in momentum in
favor of American Hustle.
If Russell loses, it will likely be to Spike Jonze for Her. This category has a long history of
awarding quirky and offbeat scripts, and Her
is about as original as it gets for the Oscars. Its strong nominations
performance indicates widespread Academy support, and Jonze won the Globe and
the Writers Guild award. Spike Jonze is another popular yet Oscar-less
filmmaker, so this could also be a makeup prize for him.
I also wouldn’t be shocked to see Nebraska win this. That is another film that got more nominations
than anyone expected it to, and it would be odd to see it leave
empty-handed. Those who really follow the race know that Bob Nelson tried for
years to get this movie made, and Oscar loves a Cinderella story. Those who don’t
follow the race think Alexander Payne
wrote it, and everyone loves him.
Best Adapted
Screenplay
12 Years a Slave
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall
Street
12 Years a Slave
has lost just about every major screenwriting prize this season, but it just
has to win something, right? The
writing is not the film’s most noteworthy element, but it is by far the most
loved (liked? Respected? I don’t know what to do with this movie) film of the
bunch.
Slave wasn’t
eligible for the Writers Guild award because John Ridley is a scab who crossed
the picket line during the last writers’ strike. That prize went to Captain Phillips, which is strange considering how non-writer friendly that film is. I don’t think that scenario
will repeat at the Oscars.
The spoiler that should have Fox Searchlight sweating is Philomena, which shockingly won the
BAFTA. You can kind of explain it away, as Steve Coogan is a comedy god in the
UK. However, this is Harvey Weinstein’s only shot at an above-the-line win
(unless he hijacks the ballot box for Best Actress). Even though this year was
kind of a bust for him, he will not go down without a fight.
Best Documentary
Feature
20 Feet from Stardom
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
Now that the Academy-at-large votes for this category, it is
probably safe to predict the movie that is the easiest watch and made the most
money. In this case, that film is 20 Feet
from Stardom, an inspiring documentary about backup singers struggling to step
into the spotlight. It’s a story that many in the Academy can likely relate to,
and Harvey “the Punisher” Weinstein is pushing it. He should prevail here.
The critical darling here is The Act of Killing, which also prevailed at the BAFTAs. It makes sense
on paper, but it’s a tough film to sit through. Imagine your grandmother watching a film about Indonesian militants recreating their most
notorious mass murders in a Hollywood-ized setting. That is probably how the
Academy will respond as well. I have a strong stomach for these kinds of
things, but I found it morally questionable at best. I just don’t see it
finding the support to win.
I would not underestimate The Square. Netflix proved to be an adept Emmy player with the
success of “House of Cards.” They have been very aggressive in their first
swing at Oscar campaigning, and it paid off with a nomination in an unusually
competitive field. The Square's Arab Spring focus has gravitas, but it’s not too
difficult to digest. It would make sense as a winner.
Best Animated Feature
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest and Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Frozen was
hurtling towards the $1 billion mark as Oscar ballots were mailed in. There is
just almost no way it will lose. The Wind
Rises might have been a strong challenger had Hayao Miyazaki not ultimately
decided against retiring. Now I just don’t think anyone cares about that movie.
Best Foreign Language
Film
The Broken Circle
Breakdown (Belgium)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Omar (Palestinian
Territories)
This is the first year that the Academy-at-large will decide
on the Foreign Language Film Oscar. In the past, I might have expected
something quaint and traditional like The
Broken Circle Breakdown or Omar
to emerge victorious, but I imagine that Oscar voters will just follow the
buzz. In this case, the winner should be Cannes hit The Great Beauty, which has drawn favorable comparisons to classic
Fellini. The Hunt should be
considered a strong alternate. The Danish film, while maybe too dark and
brooding, has a more conventional structure while the Italian film is more
lyrical and abstract. It is a race that will ultimately divide down taste
lines.
Best Film Editing
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
This one is a tough call, but I’m going with the most
in-your-face editing of these options. I also get the impression that Captain Phillips will win something
based on its performance throughout the season. It did win the big prize from
the American Cinema Editors after all.
American Hustle
could also take this one, as it is very loud and flashy. Gravity could even win this in a clean tech sweep, though its
reliance on long takes may lead the uneducated Academy member (which is most of
them) to believe that there was no editing in that film.
Best Cinematography
The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
This one has been sewn up since Gravity premiered at the Venice film festival. Nebraska is the only other one of these films that the Academy
seemed to enjoy, but it’s just not flashy enough to contend.
Best Production
Design
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
Decadence reigns supreme in the design categories, and The Great Gatsby has it in spades. Lincoln won this last year, which would
point to 12 Years a Slave as a
possible contender. The problem there is that most of it was filmed outdoors,
where the Academy responds better to lavish physical sets. Gravity could be a spoiler, but there is not much production design
happening there in the most traditional sense.
Best Costume Design
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
Again, pretty wins. Therefore, it is hard to see The Great Gatsby losing. American Hustle could upset, but I don’t
know if we are at a point where Academy members can view a ‘70s film as a
period piece. 12 Years a Slave is a
possible spoiler, but I think it’s too drab for the Academy’s costuming taste.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Bad Grandpa
Dallas Buyers Club
The Lone Ranger
Every year, the makeup branch seeks to prove that it does
not care about film quality when selecting its nominees. Bad Grandpa and The Lone
Ranger join the illustrious company of Click
and Norbit as Oscar-nominated films. Dallas Buyers Club will win this in a walk, as I don’t think the
average Academy member would dare vote for the other two.
Best Original Score
The Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks
This is a very weak category, in which Alexandre Desplat, Thomas
Newman, and John Williams really phoned it in to collect their annual Oscar
nominations. Her is the only
deserving nominee, but it probably can’t win. Gravity is probably the winner by default. It is definitely has the
most score happening, even if I wouldn’t call it good or effective.
Best Original Song
Despicable Me 2 – “Happy”
Frozen – “Let It Go”
Her – “The Moon
Song”
Mandela: Long Walk to
Freedom – “Ordinary Love”
Disqualified Yet Not Forgotten:
Alone Yet Not Alone
– “Alone Yet Not Alone”
In one of the more bizarre turns of this Oscar season, the
Idina Menzel recording of “Let It Go” (sorry not sorry Demi Lovato) has become
a Billboard top 20 hit. The song is just such a pop cultural moment that it
almost feels wrong for it to lose the Oscar.
However, it faces a formidable challenge from the current
Billboard number one song, “Happy.” Pharrell Williams is one of the most
powerful people in show biz, and word on the street is that he wants that
Oscar. This could actually be a much closer race than most pundits are making
it out to be, though I think the internet will explode if “Let It Go” loses.
There’s definitely been a push for “Ordinary Love.” Harvey
Weinstein wants to get something out of buying that damn Mandela movie after
all. U2+Weinstein seems like a sure thing on paper, but they didn’t win for
that Gangs of New York song either
back in the day.
I would like to take a moment of silence for the Nominated
Yet Not Nominated classic “Alone Yet Not Alone.” The world has been deprived of
the chance to see Queen Joni Eareckson Tada perform on the Oscar stage. I hope
Hollywood repents for its sins.
Best Sound Mixing
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The
Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
Loud=good, and Best Picture nominee status is even better. Gravity should be the frontrunner here
with Captain Phillips as a spoiler.
Best Sound Editing
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The
Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor
See above.
Best Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The
Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into
Darkness
This is the easiest call of the night. If Gravity loses, I quit forever.
No comments:
Post a Comment