Olympic fever has consumed me early this year, so I am hopping back on the blogging train. This weekend, the Grand Prix of Figure Skating concludes in Fukuoka, Japan, where the best in the world will face off for the first time at the Grand Prix Final. However, several contenders will not be present, either by choice or by hot mess performances on the Grand Prix. My first blog post of the Olympic season analyzes the Olympic chances of the top skaters who will not be in Fukuoka this weekend. Enjoy!
Men
Daisuke Takahashi
(Japan) – Dai got off to a rocky start at Skate America, where his jumps
seemed to totally fail him and he finished off the podium. Many (including
yours truly) began to cast doubt on his Olympic chances considering the depth
of the Japanese men’s field. However, he silenced the haters with two stellar
performances at NHK Trophy that clinched him the gold medal in front of a home
crowd, as well as a berth into the Grand Prix Final. Unfortunately, Dai
suffered a leg injury last week that forced him to forfeit his Grand Prix Final slot to
teammate Nobunari Oda. While the injury does not appear to be serious, it
reinforces one of my greatest fears: he’s fighting a losing battle against his
body. Since winning the Olympic bronze and World gold in 2010, things have been
very up and down for Japan’s most decorated men's skater. This was evident last
year when he won the Grand Prix Final only to struggle to a disappointing sixth
place finish at the World Championships. It’s certainly not a matter of talent
or motivation. Many (me included again) speculate that he never fully recovered
from his torn ACL in late 2008, and it’s really taking its toll now that he’s
27 and a bit worse for the wear after years of drilling quads. Missing the Grand Prix Final might be a blessing in disguise for Dai, as it gives him a chance to take it
easy and focus on peaking at the Olympics. A performance like the one he had at
NHK will put him on the podium again. He is still the preeminent artist of the
men’s field, and we’re all willing to forgive that hackneyed Beatles long
program because he sells it with such panache (and also because we’ve developed
such a soft spot for him over the years).
Denis Ten
(Kazakhstan) – Denis Ten was the ultimate Cinderella story of the 2013
season. After a pretty unremarkable season in which he medaled at neither of
his Grand Prix events and finished in 12th at the Four Continents
Championship, he came out of nowhere to win the silver medal at the World
Championships with two brilliant performances. Most in the skating world think
he should have won gold after Patrick Chan’s flawed long program. Die-hards
knew that the kid had World Champion talent, and he trains under the legendary
Frank Carroll (of Michelle Kwan and Evan Lysacek fame), but 2013 Worlds were
the first time he managed to put it all together. This meant that Ten entered
the Olympic season as a medal favorite, which is an unenviable position for
even the most seasoned competitor (just ask Kurt Browning). He sat out Skate
America due to a bizarre infection that cost him a tooth, and he finished off
the podium in a very weak field at Cup of China looking out of shape and tired.
The Olympics are far enough away that I’m sure he’ll be back in top shape in
time, but I fear he won’t be able to cope with the pressure. He’s always
been a bit of a headcase, and these elevated expectations paired with a poor
Grand Prix season certainly won’t help. It remains to be seen if 2013 Worlds
were a fluke or if Denis Ten really is one of the top men in the Olympic field.
Then again, his wonderful unpredictability is half the fun!
Javier Fernandez
(Spain) – As the reigning European Champion and World bronze medalist,
Fernandez also entered the Olympic season as a heavy medal favorite and
possibly a contender for gold. Those hopes were dashed quickly with his abysmal
debut performance at NHK Trophy. He managed to barely pull off the bronze at
Rostelecom Cup, but it was a field that he should have easily won. What went
wrong in the off-season? I think the problem is psychological. He appears to be
well-trained, but he’s had severe issues with his quads and triple axel in competition.
Things seemed to be on the up-and-up for him last year after he left the toxic
environment of the Morozov camp for the loving care of power gay Brian Orser
(the man who made Yuna Kim), but something is just not clicking. It doesn’t
help that these new programs have taken the effortless charm of last year’s
Chaplin free skate and pushed him firmly into kitsch. I hope Team Orser is
taking this downtime to seriously look at these programs and get Javier’s head
back in the game. If the jump issues are technical, then it’s probably too late
to salvage this trainwreck. See you in 2018?
Adam Rippon (United
States) – It is not much of a surprise that none of the American men
managed to qualify for the Grand Prix Final, but I don’t think anyone expected
Adam Rippon to emerge from the Grand Prix season as U.S. man number one. He was
expected to take up the mantle of Evan Lysacek and Johnny Weir after they
retired in 2010, but three years of disappointing results led most to label him
an also-ran in the quest for an Olympic berth. All that changed with an out of
nowhere silver medal performance at Skate America and the sudden realization
that Adam Rippon is our most consistent men's skater. Let’s not get ahead of
ourselves. Even if the boy hits that quad lutz (doubtful), he’s bound to fall
out of a spin or pop an axel at some point over two programs. But after this
troubled Olympic cycle of struggling to find an internationally competitive
men's singles skater, the U.S. will have to take what it can get. International
judges have shown an appreciation for Adam’s lyrical style, but it remains to
be seen if the oppressively heteronormative U.S. fed will let him make it out
of Nationals. For Adam, consistency is key over the next month. If he keeps
landing (most of) the jumps, the U.S. fed will probably send him to Sochi lest
these other hot messes embarrass themselves on international television. It’s
not like any of these boys are winning a medal anyway.
Max Aaron (United
States) – After an upset win at last year’s U.S. Nationals and a solid
seventh place finish at his debut Worlds, Max Aaron became the Great Straight
Hope the U.S. fed had been hoping for since Evan Lysacek retired. He entered
this season as a heavy favorite to repeat his national title and possibly challenge for an Olympic medal, but now even his ticket to Sochi is in doubt
after a rough Grand Prix season. Over the course of two Grand Prix events, Max
landed one clean quad out of six attempts, creating the impression that his
planned technical content is simply too difficult to execute in practice. He
also skates like a hockey player, and international judges have crucified him
in the program components score. There simply isn’t anything for him to fall
back on when he isn’t hitting the jumps. Max claimed that he spent all summer
improving his presentation and skating skills, but it’s difficult to see any
payoff in his skating. Rumor has it that Max’s typical practice regimen is
drilling jumps over and over again, and I fear that he runs the risk of
burnout. It’s probably for the best that Max missed the Grand Prix Final, as he
should probably loosen up a bit and focus on doing whatever he can to polish
his skating before the Olympics. It might even be wise to water down the technical
content, as the U.S. judges will probably give him a pass to the Olympics as
long as he stays on his feet at Nationals.
Other U.S. Men –
If Max Aaron misses the Olympics, it will likely be to fan favorite Jason
Brown. Jason is the anti-Max in that he doesn’t even attempt quadruple jumps
and gets his points from grade of execution marks and program components. I
just don’t see the U.S. fed sending two “artistic” skaters to Sochi, which
would make a Rippon/Brown team unlikely. Jeremy Abbott is a contender as well,
but I feel like he’s used up his chances. As expected, he had one strong Grand
Prix outing and one absolute disaster. He’s still a headcase who refuses to take
responsibility for himself, and even his absolute best at this point would
probably barely scrape the top ten in Sochi. I think the U.S. fed would
probably rather not deal with him. Ross Miner joined Max Aaron on the Worlds
team last year, but his last place finish at Cup of China does not bode well
for his chances going forward. He is somebody that the U.S. fed always
desperately tries to make happen even though international judges don’t care
for him, so I would not completely rule him out. I don’t think anyone else is
really in the Olympic conversation.
Other International
Men – Florent Amodio and Michal Brezina emerged from the 2010 Olympics as
the great European hopes for Sochi, but both continued their gradual slide into
irrelevance this Grand Prix season. Among the European old guard, time appears
to be running out for Evgeny Plushenko’s comeback bid. He pulled out of
Rostelecom with injury, only to watch Maxim Kovtun sail into the Grand Prix
Final on home ice. With only one Russian men’s slot, it will be tough for
Plushenko to take down the young upstart, though I am secretly dying to see his
self-tribute “greatest hits” long program in Sochi. Brian Joubert was forced to
sit the Grand Prix out due to a feud with the French fed. I can’t imagine that he’s
in any kind of shape to contend for an Olympic medal, but his presence should
be entertaining as always. I fear that my beloved Takahiko Kozuka is done for
good. Why is it that the beautiful ones must be the most frustrating headcases?
Ladies
Yuna Kim (South
Korea) – The absence of the reigning World and Olympic champion (and the
richest person in figure skating) cast a shadow over the ladies’ Grand Prix
events. Yuna suffered a foot injury that sidelined her for exactly the six-week
duration of the Grand Prix. I have no doubt that the girl was hurt, but I don’t
think she is too sad about putting off her Olympic season debut. After
suffering burnout after her intense 2010 Olympic season, Yuna’s MO has been to
lay low all season, show up to the World Championships and collect her medal,
and then call it a day. This worked brilliantly last year when she absolutely
demolished the competition at Worlds, but it backfired in 2011 when she came
unprepared and lost to Miki Ando of all people. We should have a better idea of
where she stands when she skates at Korean Nationals later this month. She’s
still the sight-unseen gold medal favorite, but she may find a more difficult
path to the top than she had at Worlds last year.
Carolina Kostner
(Italy) – Poor Carolina never has it easy during Olympic seasons. She’s
been at the top of the ladies’ field for nearly a decade now, but something
always seems to go wrong when the whole world is watching. Carolina is the best
ladies’ skater in the world on paper, but by now we’ve come to expect
that she’s bound to miss a jump somewhere across two programs. She has become a
more consistent competitor since the last Olympics, finally winning the World
Championships in 2012 and placing second to Yuna Kim last year. She seemed to
finally be a lock for the Olympic podium coming into this season, but her Grand
Prix performances proved otherwise. Even when she had two strong skates at
Rostelecom Cup, the judges put her behind Russian teen phenom Julia Lipnitskaia
– an unthinkable result this time last year considering the cushion Carolina
gets in her program components score. Rumor has it that Carolina’s team is
taking advantage of her Grand Prix Final absence by scrapping her coolly received
“Scheherazade” long program and returning to last season’s beloved “Bolero.”
This is likely a wise move to regain favor with international judges, but
she may find a difficult path to the Olympic podium without two clean skates.
Akiko Suzuki (Japan) –
It’s odd to see only one Japanese lady in the Grand Prix Final, and it
breaks my heart to see fan favorite Akiko Suzuki sit this one out when she’s
usually such a strong early season competitor. This Grand Prix season wasn’t a
disaster for her. She won a medal at both of her events in difficult fields.
Everyone loves her because of her inherent musicality and her strong connection
with the audience. However, she has a tendency to get lost in the shuffle when
the competition is strong. She doesn’t have the competitive fire of a Yuna Kim
or a Mao Asada that makes her undeniable. She’s typically not a skater who can
fall and still win a World medal. Unlike Yuna or Carolina, Akiko really needed
to be in the Grand Prix Final to remind international judges that she is a
medal contender for Sochi. I love her programs this year and wish her all the
best, but she’s not winning an Olympic medal unless several other top ladies
crack.
Gracie Gold (United
States) – The American media would probably like nothing more than for
Gracie Gold to win a medal at the Olympics. She’s gorgeous, has a bubbly
personality, and the “Gold Wins Gold” headlines are almost too appealing. The
girl was born to be a star. Her breakout performance at last year’s U.S.
Nationals made her seem like a strong Olympic medal contender, but she has yet
to replicate that success internationally. Part of the problem is packaging.
Gracie has Disney princess looks, but she skates like Tonya Harding. Her team
is desperately trying to make her a lady with her Sleeping Beauty long program,
but the girl is just not a convincing ballerina. She needs to embrace her
athleticism and go for something a bit more in-your-face. The biggest problem
is still consistency. Gracie is one the stronger ladies technically, but she
tends to make stupid mistakes that take her out of the running. It’s probably
for the best that she missed the Grand Prix Final, as she just moved to Frank
Carroll’s camp, and he needs time to make her more palatable before the
Olympics. He’s also scrapping her short program (but really it’s the Sleeping
Beauty program that needed to go), so there is hope that she’ll show up to
U.S. Nationals with something a bit more fitting. Regardless, the odds for
Gracie taking the National title from Ashley Wagner this year are slim.
Other U.S. Ladies
– We still have a mysterious third spot to fill for the Olympics, and the Grand
Prix offered no enlightenment on that front. Samantha Cesario had two strong
Grand Prix showings, but it would have helped her case if she had actually won
a medal. Still, the U.S. fed can at least count on her to not make a fool of
herself on television. The skating world has been waiting for Mirai Nagasu to
get her act together since 2010, but she has been a chronic underachiever since
then. She’s still a mess, but she did win bronze at Rostelecom Cup after a
rough start at NHK Trophy. She could grab the third Olympic spot, but the
judges at Nationals will likely not be doing her any favors if she doesn’t have
the skate of her life. Christina Gao is probably out of the running after she bombed
at Trophee Eric Bompard. She made the Grand Prix Final last year and the judges
still found a way to put her in fifth at U.S. Nationals. It never pays to be
pleasant but unmemorable. Agnes Zawadzki should be out of the running after her
worst Grand Prix season yet, but U.S. judges have a tendency to inflate her
scores at home for reasons I will never understand. Courtney Hicks can land all the
triple jumps she wants to, but she is not going to the Olympics unless she
magically learns how to actually skate.
Other International
Ladies – One has to imagine that it will be tough for Elizaveta
Tuktamysheva to make it to Sochi after she missed the podium at both of her Grand
Prix events and four other Russian ladies made the Grand Prix Final. The
reigning Russian National Champion is one of the best jumpers in the ladies’
field, but her consistency issues have only gotten worse as she’s gotten older,
and it may be too much of a gamble for the Russian fed to give her one of only
two of its ladies’ Olympic spots. Kanako Murakami had a pretty bad go of it on
the Grand Prix, but it may be too soon to write her off. She failed to make the
Grand Prix Final the last two seasons and still wound up in the top five at the
World Championships. Her Olympic spot is likely still safe, as the other
Japanese ladies didn’t make much of an impression on the Grand Prix, and Miki
Ando’s comeback appears to be a complete bust. Kaetlyn Osmond emerged last
season as Canada’s best hope to put a lady on the podium in Sochi. As usual,
the Canadian media jumped the gun, and Kaetlyn has been sidelined with injury
for much of the season. She’ll probably still be at the Olympics due to lack of
domestic competition, but I don’t expect her to make many waves there.
Pairs
Vera Bazarova/Yuri
Larionov (Russia) – These two really seemed like the future of Russian
pairs coming out of the 2010 Olympics (a running theme in this blog post), but
something has never quite clicked. She is unable to cleanly land most of their
side-by-side triple jumps, but the problems run deeper. They have the classic
Russian look and do gorgeous lifts and spins, but they lack connection to the
audience and to each other. They’re a difficult team to root for, and
international judges have never really gotten behind them. They seemed terribly
out of shape at Trophee Eric Bompard and finished off the podium, but they came
back with a strong silver medal performance at Rostelecom Cup. They got a bit
of home ice inflation at Rostelecom that may be a sign of things to come in
Sochi. They could be a spoiler for Olympic bronze considering all the shady
Russian wheeling and dealing I expect to happen.
Sui Wenjing/Han Cong
(China) – The young Chinese pairs seem to really be coming into their own
this year, but that was sadly not the case last year when Sui/Han came in 12th
at the World Championships and ensured that only two Chinese pairs qualified
for the Olympics. With Pang/Tong and Peng/Zhang qualifying for the Grand Prix
Final, Sui/Han may be on the outside looking in for the Olympics. I think they’re a better pair
than Peng/Zhang. Unfortunately a couple of fluke mistakes in the long program
at NHK Trophy placed them behind their compatriots and knocked them out of the
final. Like many top Chinese pairs, Sui/Han have superb pair elements (lifts,
twists, throws) but suffer in terms of individual skating skills. They have
grown enormously as performers, and it would be a shame to not see their
gloriously bizarre Russian folk dance free skate at the Olympics. I have no
idea how the Chinese fed chooses its Olympic team, but I hope Sui/Han get the
second spot. If not, at least they’ll probably still be around for 2018.
The American Pairs –
Lord help us. We have to send two pairs to the Olympics, and the Grand Prix
just told us that they’re all messes. Caydee Denney/John Coughlin at least won
a medal at Trophee Eric Bompard, so I think they’ve earned their spot. Their
programs are very bargain bin, but you can at least count on them to skate respectably.
After that, who knows. Reigning National champions Marissa Castelli/Simon
Shnapir still skate like they don’t really know or like each other. Alexa
Scimeca/Chris Knierim finished in the top 10 at Worlds last year, but he broke
his leg over the summer, and their Grand Prix performances suggest that he came
back too soon. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the second slot went to
somebody who didn’t even get a Grand Prix assignment. I don’t think the U.S.
fed has an idea of who to send and will legitimately let things sort themselves
out at Nationals.
Other International
Pairs – There’s not much else to talk about here, as the top teams made the
final for the most part. Stefania Berton/Ondrej Hotarek won their fluke gold
medal at Skate Canada, but I don’t think anyone really expects them to contend
in Sochi. Their best case scenario is probably bottom half of the top ten. With
Kavaguti/Smirnov indefinitely out of the picture, it looks like Ksenia
Stolbova/Fedor Klimov will be Russian pair number three in Sochi. I enjoy them,
mostly for the amazing bitchface she serves whenever he messes up.
Ice Dance
Elena Ilinykh/Nikita
Katsalapov (Russia) – They used to be my guilty pleasures, but now I just
want them to win the Olympic bronze. They have gorgeous body line and extension,
incredible speed across the ice, and supermodel good looks. However, there’s
always been something a little “off” about them, whether it’s him shooting her
in the face at the end of their Schindler’s
List free dance, or them recreating the story of Ghost in a competitive program last year. This year they’re playing
it a bit more conservatively with a Swan
Lake free dance (in which she dresses like a ballerina but does not bother
to point her toes….) and a Gatsby-esque
short dance that I legitimately love. They were a bit sloppy at NHK Trophy and
finished off the podium, but they must have gone to some kind of boot camp over
the next week when they came back and had a superb showing at Trophee Eric
Bompard, placing ahead of the top French dance team on Parisian ice. Ice dance
is all about politics and perception, and that performance in Paris is what
they needed to stay in the conversation for the Olympic podium despite missing
the Grand Prix Final. Elena and Nikita are weaker on technical elements than
the other top teams, so they should focus on maximizing levels on their spins,
lifts, and step sequences during this downtime. If they deliver the technical
goods in Sochi, Russian wheeling and dealing will ensure that they have the
program components scores they need to get near the podium.
Maia Shibutani/Alex
Shibutani (United States) – Everyone’s favorite overachieving
Asian-American siblings have had a giant target on their backs since their
fluke bronze medal at the 2011 World Championships. Not only did they round out
an unprecedented North American sweep of the ice dance medals at Worlds, but
they were part of a Worlds podium comprised entirely of Marina Zueva and Igor
Shpilband's students from the Canton, Michigan ice dance machine. As the
youngest of the three teams and the unfortunate bearers of the siblings stigma,
international ice dance judges seem to have decided that they are doomed to
come in 8th place at the Olympics no matter how they skate. Much of
the criticism lobbed at the Shibutanis is valid. They are very strong
technically, but they’re a bit awkward, and they have a hard time finding
programs that really work for them. Alex is a total cornball, and Maia is a bit
vacant. Their Michael Jackson free dance this year is at times so wrong it’s
right, but it’s also kind of a snooze for the middle two minutes or so. As far
as this season goes, there’s not much they can do besides think about how to
better package themselves next year for when the top teams retire. At least
they’ll probably regain their silver medal at Nationals this year.
Madison Chock/Evan
Bates (United States) – This team had a ton of buzz last season, and they
even managed to beat the Shibutanis at Nationals and Worlds. They seem to be
struggling a bit this year despite bronze medal finishes at both of their Grand
Prix events. They have impressive individual elements (especially the lifts),
but their programs just aren’t flowing as well as they should be. This is
especially true of the Les Miz free dance, where their skating never quite
matches the intensity of the music in the latter half. Madison Chock is a star,
and it’s hard to look away from her when they’re skating, but she is probably
the weakest technically of the top ladies in dance. One gets the impression
that Evan is only there to present her and then drag her around through the
dance holds. I would advise starting from scratch on the free dance, but I
expect there isn’t much they can do to avoid scraping the bottom of the top 10
in Sochi.
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