The Road to Sochi: The Pairs and Ice Dance Contenders in the Grand Prix Final

We continue our look at the Grand Prix Final with a preview of the upcoming pairs' and ice dance competitions and what it all means for Sochi. Enjoy!

Pairs

Tatiana Volosozhar/Maxim Trankov (Russia) – While the Olympics are typically full of surprises, the writing is already on the wall in the pairs’ field. Volosozhar/Trankov are winning the Olympic gold medal. It won’t be undeserved. They’re just that much better than the rest of the field. Their "Jesus Christ Superstar" long program may offend some more delicate sensibilities (she gets crucified at the end!), but their technical elements are unimpeachable. The Grand Prix Final will be just one more step on the road to total domination in Sochi.

Aliona Savchenko/Robin Szolkowy (Germany) – The Germans have tried in vain to keep up with the Russians, but it has become painfully obvious that the Olympic gold is a long shot. This year, their strategy has been to win on technical content by doing a throw triple axel in the short and long programs. They have yet to hit that element cleanly in competition, and their other elements have suffered due to their triple axel obsession. Their coach, everyone’s favorite Stasi informant Ingo Steur, has attempted a smear campaign in the media, claiming that the Russians’ program components scores should be below the Germans’. If Grand Prix scores are any indication, international judges are not buying it. Aliona and Robin should embrace that they are in it for silver and focus on skating cleanly. They may discover in Fukuoka that not even the silver medal is guaranteed.

Pang Qing/Tong Jian (China) – The reigning Olympic silver medalists have skated in every World Championships since 1999(!). Over the course of their competitive career, they have evolved from tricksters to the preeminent artists of the pairs’ field. As this is their farewell season(?), sentiment is probably on their side, and this competition could establish them as the Olympic bronze medal favorites. However, technical elements are an issue, as they are both over 30 and struggle increasingly to make it to the end of each season without injury. It is important that they focus on pacing themselves and peaking at the Olympics, even if that means sacrificing a strong result at the Grand Prix Final.

Kirsten Moore-Towers/Dylan Moscovitch (Canada) – No Canadian pair has entered the Olympics as a legitimate medal threat since 2002, but this year has two strong Canadian contenders in the Grand Prix Final. Kirsten and Dylan have gained fans this year with their elegance and refinement. Their programs aren’t as technically difficult as the other top teams’, but they rack up points on execution. When they’re on, they score very well internationally. However, their shaky performance at Rostelecom Cup showed unexpected mental cracks. Without flashy elements to throw down, Kirsten and Dylan have to rely on polish and consistency to make a run for the Olympic podium. A top three finish at the Grand Prix Final would put them on the right path.

Meagan Duhamel/Eric Radford (Canada) – The other top Canadian pair couldn’t be more different from Moore-Towers/Moscovitch. The reigning World bronze medalists are all about flashy and difficult technical elements. Meagan and Eric are experts at working the IJS code of points, designing programs to maximize their scoring potential. The result isn’t always pleasant, but those side-by-side triple lutzes are impressive when they hit them. The problem this season has been execution. Much like Max Aaron and his multi-quad free skate, there is good reason to worry that Meagan and Eric’s technical content is too difficult to perform cleanly in competition. While they did manage to make the Grand Prix Final, their results were disappointing for a team that is gunning for the Olympic silver. They put everything they have into their performance when it counts, but their program components are still weak compared to the other top teams. I admire their intensity, but it might behoove them to loosen up a bit between now and Sochi. A medal at the Grad Prix Final may be a tough get with the way they’ve been skating lately.

Peng Cheng/Zhang Hao (China) – Much like Pang/Tong, Zhang Hao has been around forever and even won the Olympic silver in 2006 with Zhang Dan (no relation). His new partner, however, is only 16. These two are a classic “gorilla and flea” pair, but their size difference makes for some awesome lifts, twists, and throws. Peng/Zhang have only been together for two seasons, and it often shows in their connection and synchronicity. They definitely benefited from the mistakes of others to qualify for the Grand Prix Final, but this is a great chance for them to gain more experience skating together on a big stage. They don’t have much of a shot at a medal here, but a strong performance could make a strong case for the Chinese fed to take them to the Olympics over Sui/Han in the second Chinese pairs’ spot.

Ice Dance

Meryl Davis/Charlie White (United States) – In a drama-filled ice dance season on the Grand Prix, one thing is very clear: Davis/White are the favorites for the Olympic gold. One almost has to worry that they’re peaking too soon with how fabulously they skated in both of their Grand Prix events. From a technical standpoint, no one can touch the speed and power of their skating or the athleticism of their lifts and spins. They possess an innate sense of musicality that keeps them rooted in the “dance” aspect of the sport even when they’re performing insane acrobatics. Critics have called their “Scheherazade” free dance calculated and conservative, but I think it's the perfect vehicle to win over the judges and the audience in Sochi. This weekend will be telling as they face off against their arch rivals and training mates Virtue/Moir for the first time this season. Meryl and Charlie have scored better throughout the season, but nothing is set in stone until they go head-to-head. Given the political nature of dance, Meryl and Charlie will be difficult to beat in Sochi if they continue their winning streak in Fukuoka.

Tessa Virtue/Scott Moir (Canada) – Tessa and Scott will certainly keep the Americans on their toes through Sochi. The reigning Olympic champions did not opt to continue through 2014 just to lose to their closest competitors in the end. Meryl and Charlie have thoroughly surpassed the Canadians technically (in no small part thanks to Tessa Virtue’s persisting leg pains), but Tessa and Scott have the reputation as the superior artists, and that goes a long way in the world of ice dance. The Canadians certainly have superior body line and extension, and they have palpable sexual chemistry that the Americans decidedly lack. However, their Olympic programs are a bit of a snooze. The free dance is beautiful, but it’s their 2010 gold medal program repackaged with different music. The Grand Prix Final could very well be the Olympic decider. If Tessa and Scott want to repeat in Sochi, they need to find a way to beat Meryl and Charlie in Fukuoka.

Ekaterina Bobrova/Dmitri Soloviev (Russia) – The most exciting race in ice dance is the battle for Olympic bronze. With five legitimate contenders who have been scoring very close to each other throughout the Grand Prix, this could be the biggest nail-biter in Olympic ice dance in years. Four of those teams will be at the Grand Prix Final, which could be our first indication of how Sochi will shake out. As the reigning World bronze medalists and the top-ranked Russian team, Bobrova/Soloviev are likely the favorites. A controversial win at Rostelecom Cup showed that they can expect very kind treatment on home ice in Sochi. However, most observers agree that they’re the weakest team in this deep field. Their speed is impressive, but they lack the control and precision of the other top teams. He is a strong skater, but her posture is unforgivably poor for a competitive ice dancer. Their “dying bird” free dance is just plain bizarre, and it has nothing to do with the Vivaldi and Mozart music they’re skating to. Still, it’s obvious that they have the Russian political machine behind them. If they wind up on the podium at the Grand Prix Final, the race for Olympic bronze may be over. 

Nathalie Pechalat/Fabian Bourzat (France) – If there’s any political machine that matches the intensity of the Russians’, it is the French’s. Let’s not forget the kind of damage those two skating feds caused together at the 2002 Olympics. After their disappointing sixth place finish at the 2013 World Championships, French political mastermind Didier Gailhaguet shipped Nathalie and Fabian off to Igor Shpiliband, a coach renowned as much for his political pull as for his technical prowess. The gamble seemed to pay off early in the season, when the French soundly defeated Bobrova/Soloviev at Cup of China. However, they finished behind Ilinykh/Katsalapov on home ice at Trophee Eric Bompard. In the strictly hierarchial world of ice dance, it is difficult to ascertain where Nathalie and Fabian stand. They’re skating better than they have in years, and their Bob Fosse short dance is one of my favorite programs anyone is skating in any discipline this year. I can even appreciate their “Little Prince” free dance as a nod to the more theatrical ice dance style of the '80s-'90s. They are France’s only real shot at a figure skating medal in Sochi, and it’s hard to imagine that Didier will let that bronze medal slip away without a fight. It will be interesting to see where they score in relation to the Russians at the Grand Prix Final, as that could be a sign of things to come in Sochi.

Kaitlyn Weaver/Andrew Poje (Canada) – Kaitlyn and Andrew got thoroughly railroaded at Rostelecom Cup in order to give the gold to the Russians. They rightfully won the free dance, but the technical panel buried them so thoroughly in the short dance that they didn’t have a chance to finish higher than second overall. The second-ranked Canadians have been knocking on the door of the Worlds podium for the last three years, but international judges are not keen on letting another North American ice dance sweep happen for the foreseeable future. I think they’re clearly the third-best ice dance team in the world right now. If they’re ever going to move ahead of the top European teams, this Grand Prix Final on neutral territory is their chance. If not, then it’s not the end of the world. I fully expect them to emerge as a World champion threat after Tessa and Scott retire. In the meantime, let’s enjoy their masterpiece “Maria de Buenos Aires” free dance and lament about how underappreciated they are.

Anna Cappellini/Luca Lanotte (Italy) – It’s tough to gage where Anna and Luca stand, as they’ve only faced Davis/White of the top ice dance teams so far this season. They narrowly missed the podium at last year’s World Championships, and many (including yours truly) believe they should have won bronze. The Italians are strong performers, and I appreciate their graceful and elegant style. However, they’re probably one of the weaker top teams in terms of pure blade-to-ice skills. Their “Barber of Seville” free dance is classy and refined, but it lacks the punch of the other top teams’ programs. I fear that they’ll be lost and the shuffle and come in last here no matter how they skate. They’re also likely to suffer politically, as coach Igor Shpiliband now has the French team to try and push for Olympic bronze. Much like Weaver/Poje, the Italians will likely have their real moment in the spotlight when some of the other top teams retire post-Sochi.