The Road to Sochi: Who's Missing from the Grand Prix Final?

Olympic fever has consumed me early this year, so I am hopping back on the blogging train. This weekend, the Grand Prix of Figure Skating concludes in Fukuoka, Japan, where the best in the world will face off for the first time at the Grand Prix Final. However, several contenders will not be present, either by choice or by hot mess performances on the Grand Prix. My first blog post of the Olympic season analyzes the Olympic chances of the top skaters who will not be in Fukuoka this weekend. Enjoy!

Men

Daisuke Takahashi (Japan) – Dai got off to a rocky start at Skate America, where his jumps seemed to totally fail him and he finished off the podium. Many (including yours truly) began to cast doubt on his Olympic chances considering the depth of the Japanese men’s field. However, he silenced the haters with two stellar performances at NHK Trophy that clinched him the gold medal in front of a home crowd, as well as a berth into the Grand Prix Final. Unfortunately, Dai suffered a leg injury last week that forced him to forfeit his Grand Prix Final slot to teammate Nobunari Oda. While the injury does not appear to be serious, it reinforces one of my greatest fears: he’s fighting a losing battle against his body. Since winning the Olympic bronze and World gold in 2010, things have been very up and down for Japan’s most decorated men's skater. This was evident last year when he won the Grand Prix Final only to struggle to a disappointing sixth place finish at the World Championships. It’s certainly not a matter of talent or motivation. Many (me included again) speculate that he never fully recovered from his torn ACL in late 2008, and it’s really taking its toll now that he’s 27 and a bit worse for the wear after years of drilling quads. Missing the Grand Prix Final might be a blessing in disguise for Dai, as it gives him a chance to take it easy and focus on peaking at the Olympics. A performance like the one he had at NHK will put him on the podium again. He is still the preeminent artist of the men’s field, and we’re all willing to forgive that hackneyed Beatles long program because he sells it with such panache (and also because we’ve developed such a soft spot for him over the years).

Denis Ten (Kazakhstan) – Denis Ten was the ultimate Cinderella story of the 2013 season. After a pretty unremarkable season in which he medaled at neither of his Grand Prix events and finished in 12^th at the Four Continents Championship, he came out of nowhere to win the silver medal at the World Championships with two brilliant performances. Most in the skating world think he should have won gold after Patrick Chan’s flawed long program. Die-hards knew that the kid had World Champion talent, and he trains under the legendary Frank Carroll (of Michelle Kwan and Evan Lysacek fame), but 2013 Worlds were the first time he managed to put it all together. This meant that Ten entered the Olympic season as a medal favorite, which is an unenviable position for even the most seasoned competitor (just ask Kurt Browning). He sat out Skate America due to a bizarre infection that cost him a tooth, and he finished off the podium in a very weak field at Cup of China looking out of shape and tired. The Olympics are far enough away that I’m sure he’ll be back in top shape in time, but I fear he won’t be able to cope with the pressure. He’s always been a bit of a headcase, and these elevated expectations paired with a poor Grand Prix season certainly won’t help. It remains to be seen if 2013 Worlds were a fluke or if Denis Ten really is one of the top men in the Olympic field. Then again, his wonderful unpredictability is half the fun!

Javier Fernandez (Spain) – As the reigning European Champion and World bronze medalist, Fernandez also entered the Olympic season as a heavy medal favorite and possibly a contender for gold. Those hopes were dashed quickly with his abysmal debut performance at NHK Trophy. He managed to barely pull off the bronze at Rostelecom Cup, but it was a field that he should have easily won. What went wrong in the off-season? I think the problem is psychological. He appears to be well-trained, but he’s had severe issues with his quads and triple axel in competition. Things seemed to be on the up-and-up for him last year after he left the toxic environment of the Morozov camp for the loving care of power gay Brian Orser (the man who made Yuna Kim), but something is just not clicking. It doesn’t help that these new programs have taken the effortless charm of last year’s Chaplin free skate and pushed him firmly into kitsch. I hope Team Orser is taking this downtime to seriously look at these programs and get Javier’s head back in the game. If the jump issues are technical, then it’s probably too late to salvage this trainwreck. See you in 2018?

Adam Rippon (United States) – It is not much of a surprise that none of the American men managed to qualify for the Grand Prix Final, but I don’t think anyone expected Adam Rippon to emerge from the Grand Prix season as U.S. man number one. He was expected to take up the mantle of Evan Lysacek and Johnny Weir after they retired in 2010, but three years of disappointing results led most to label him an also-ran in the quest for an Olympic berth. All that changed with an out of nowhere silver medal performance at Skate America and the sudden realization that Adam Rippon is our most consistent men's skater. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Even if the boy hits that quad lutz (doubtful), he’s bound to fall out of a spin or pop an axel at some point over two programs. But after this troubled Olympic cycle of struggling to find an internationally competitive men's singles skater, the U.S. will have to take what it can get. International judges have shown an appreciation for Adam’s lyrical style, but it remains to be seen if the oppressively heteronormative U.S. fed will let him make it out of Nationals. For Adam, consistency is key over the next month. If he keeps landing (most of) the jumps, the U.S. fed will probably send him to Sochi lest these other hot messes embarrass themselves on international television. It’s not like any of these boys are winning a medal anyway.

Max Aaron (United States) – After an upset win at last year’s U.S. Nationals and a solid seventh place finish at his debut Worlds, Max Aaron became the Great Straight Hope the U.S. fed had been hoping for since Evan Lysacek retired. He entered this season as a heavy favorite to repeat his national title and possibly challenge for an Olympic medal, but now even his ticket to Sochi is in doubt after a rough Grand Prix season. Over the course of two Grand Prix events, Max landed one clean quad out of six attempts, creating the impression that his planned technical content is simply too difficult to execute in practice. He also skates like a hockey player, and international judges have crucified him in the program components score. There simply isn’t anything for him to fall back on when he isn’t hitting the jumps. Max claimed that he spent all summer improving his presentation and skating skills, but it’s difficult to see any payoff in his skating. Rumor has it that Max’s typical practice regimen is drilling jumps over and over again, and I fear that he runs the risk of burnout. It’s probably for the best that Max missed the Grand Prix Final, as he should probably loosen up a bit and focus on doing whatever he can to polish his skating before the Olympics. It might even be wise to water down the technical content, as the U.S. judges will probably give him a pass to the Olympics as long as he stays on his feet at Nationals.

Other U.S. Men – If Max Aaron misses the Olympics, it will likely be to fan favorite Jason Brown. Jason is the anti-Max in that he doesn’t even attempt quadruple jumps and gets his points from grade of execution marks and program components. I just don’t see the U.S. fed sending two “artistic” skaters to Sochi, which would make a Rippon/Brown team unlikely. Jeremy Abbott is a contender as well, but I feel like he’s used up his chances. As expected, he had one strong Grand Prix outing and one absolute disaster. He’s still a headcase who refuses to take responsibility for himself, and even his absolute best at this point would probably barely scrape the top ten in Sochi. I think the U.S. fed would probably rather not deal with him. Ross Miner joined Max Aaron on the Worlds team last year, but his last place finish at Cup of China does not bode well for his chances going forward. He is somebody that the U.S. fed always desperately tries to make happen even though international judges don’t care for him, so I would not completely rule him out. I don’t think anyone else is really in the Olympic conversation.

Other International Men – Florent Amodio and Michal Brezina emerged from the 2010 Olympics as the great European hopes for Sochi, but both continued their gradual slide into irrelevance this Grand Prix season. Among the European old guard, time appears to be running out for Evgeny Plushenko’s comeback bid. He pulled out of Rostelecom with injury, only to watch Maxim Kovtun sail into the Grand Prix Final on home ice. With only one Russian men’s slot, it will be tough for Plushenko to take down the young upstart, though I am secretly dying to see his self-tribute “greatest hits” long program in Sochi. Brian Joubert was forced to sit the Grand Prix out due to a feud with the French fed. I can’t imagine that he’s in any kind of shape to contend for an Olympic medal, but his presence should be entertaining as always. I fear that my beloved Takahiko Kozuka is done for good. Why is it that the beautiful ones must be the most frustrating headcases?

Ladies

Yuna Kim (South Korea) – The absence of the reigning World and Olympic champion (and the richest person in figure skating) cast a shadow over the ladies’ Grand Prix events. Yuna suffered a foot injury that sidelined her for exactly the six-week duration of the Grand Prix. I have no doubt that the girl was hurt, but I don’t think she is too sad about putting off her Olympic season debut. After suffering burnout after her intense 2010 Olympic season, Yuna’s MO has been to lay low all season, show up to the World Championships and collect her medal, and then call it a day. This worked brilliantly last year when she absolutely demolished the competition at Worlds, but it backfired in 2011 when she came unprepared and lost to Miki Ando of all people. We should have a better idea of where she stands when she skates at Korean Nationals later this month. She’s still the sight-unseen gold medal favorite, but she may find a more difficult path to the top than she had at Worlds last year.

Carolina Kostner (Italy) – Poor Carolina never has it easy during Olympic seasons. She’s been at the top of the ladies’ field for nearly a decade now, but something always seems to go wrong when the whole world is watching. Carolina is the best ladies’ skater in the world on paper, but by now we’ve come to expect that she’s bound to miss a jump somewhere across two programs. She has become a more consistent competitor since the last Olympics, finally winning the World Championships in 2012 and placing second to Yuna Kim last year. She seemed to finally be a lock for the Olympic podium coming into this season, but her Grand Prix performances proved otherwise. Even when she had two strong skates at Rostelecom Cup, the judges put her behind Russian teen phenom Julia Lipnitskaia – an unthinkable result this time last year considering the cushion Carolina gets in her program components score. Rumor has it that Carolina’s team is taking advantage of her Grand Prix Final absence by scrapping her coolly received “Scheherazade” long program and returning to last season’s beloved “Bolero.” This is likely a wise move to regain favor with international judges, but she may find a difficult path to the Olympic podium without two clean skates.

Akiko Suzuki (Japan) – It’s odd to see only one Japanese lady in the Grand Prix Final, and it breaks my heart to see fan favorite Akiko Suzuki sit this one out when she’s usually such a strong early season competitor. This Grand Prix season wasn’t a disaster for her. She won a medal at both of her events in difficult fields. Everyone loves her because of her inherent musicality and her strong connection with the audience. However, she has a tendency to get lost in the shuffle when the competition is strong. She doesn’t have the competitive fire of a Yuna Kim or a Mao Asada that makes her undeniable. She’s typically not a skater who can fall and still win a World medal. Unlike Yuna or Carolina, Akiko really needed to be in the Grand Prix Final to remind international judges that she is a medal contender for Sochi. I love her programs this year and wish her all the best, but she’s not winning an Olympic medal unless several other top ladies crack.

Gracie Gold (United States) – The American media would probably like nothing more than for Gracie Gold to win a medal at the Olympics. She’s gorgeous, has a bubbly personality, and the “Gold Wins Gold” headlines are almost too appealing. The girl was born to be a star. Her breakout performance at last year’s U.S. Nationals made her seem like a strong Olympic medal contender, but she has yet to replicate that success internationally. Part of the problem is packaging. Gracie has Disney princess looks, but she skates like Tonya Harding. Her team is desperately trying to make her a lady with her Sleeping Beauty long program, but the girl is just not a convincing ballerina. She needs to embrace her athleticism and go for something a bit more in-your-face. The biggest problem is still consistency. Gracie is one the stronger ladies technically, but she tends to make stupid mistakes that take her out of the running. It’s probably for the best that she missed the Grand Prix Final, as she just moved to Frank Carroll’s camp, and he needs time to make her more palatable before the Olympics. He’s also scrapping her short program (but really it’s the Sleeping Beauty program that needed to go), so there is hope that she’ll show up to U.S. Nationals with something a bit more fitting. Regardless, the odds for Gracie taking the National title from Ashley Wagner this year are slim.

Other U.S. Ladies – We still have a mysterious third spot to fill for the Olympics, and the Grand Prix offered no enlightenment on that front. Samantha Cesario had two strong Grand Prix showings, but it would have helped her case if she had actually won a medal. Still, the U.S. fed can at least count on her to not make a fool of herself on television. The skating world has been waiting for Mirai Nagasu to get her act together since 2010, but she has been a chronic underachiever since then. She’s still a mess, but she did win bronze at Rostelecom Cup after a rough start at NHK Trophy. She could grab the third Olympic spot, but the judges at Nationals will likely not be doing her any favors if she doesn’t have the skate of her life. Christina Gao is probably out of the running after she bombed at Trophee Eric Bompard. She made the Grand Prix Final last year and the judges still found a way to put her in fifth at U.S. Nationals. It never pays to be pleasant but unmemorable. Agnes Zawadzki should be out of the running after her worst Grand Prix season yet, but U.S. judges have a tendency to inflate her scores at home for reasons I will never understand. Courtney Hicks can land all the triple jumps she wants to, but she is not going to the Olympics unless she magically learns how to actually skate.

Other International Ladies – One has to imagine that it will be tough for Elizaveta Tuktamysheva to make it to Sochi after she missed the podium at both of her Grand Prix events and four other Russian ladies made the Grand Prix Final. The reigning Russian National Champion is one of the best jumpers in the ladies’ field, but her consistency issues have only gotten worse as she’s gotten older, and it may be too much of a gamble for the Russian fed to give her one of only two of its ladies’ Olympic spots. Kanako Murakami had a pretty bad go of it on the Grand Prix, but it may be too soon to write her off. She failed to make the Grand Prix Final the last two seasons and still wound up in the top five at the World Championships. Her Olympic spot is likely still safe, as the other Japanese ladies didn’t make much of an impression on the Grand Prix, and Miki Ando’s comeback appears to be a complete bust. Kaetlyn Osmond emerged last season as Canada’s best hope to put a lady on the podium in Sochi. As usual, the Canadian media jumped the gun, and Kaetlyn has been sidelined with injury for much of the season. She’ll probably still be at the Olympics due to lack of domestic competition, but I don’t expect her to make many waves there.

Pairs

Vera Bazarova/Yuri Larionov (Russia) – These two really seemed like the future of Russian pairs coming out of the 2010 Olympics (a running theme in this blog post), but something has never quite clicked. She is unable to cleanly land most of their side-by-side triple jumps, but the problems run deeper. They have the classic Russian look and do gorgeous lifts and spins, but they lack connection to the audience and to each other. They’re a difficult team to root for, and international judges have never really gotten behind them. They seemed terribly out of shape at Trophee Eric Bompard and finished off the podium, but they came back with a strong silver medal performance at Rostelecom Cup. They got a bit of home ice inflation at Rostelecom that may be a sign of things to come in Sochi. They could be a spoiler for Olympic bronze considering all the shady Russian wheeling and dealing I expect to happen.

Sui Wenjing/Han Cong (China) – The young Chinese pairs seem to really be coming into their own this year, but that was sadly not the case last year when Sui/Han came in 12^th at the World Championships and ensured that only two Chinese pairs qualified for the Olympics. With Pang/Tong and Peng/Zhang qualifying for the Grand Prix Final, Sui/Han may be on the outside looking in for the Olympics. I think they’re a better pair than Peng/Zhang. Unfortunately a couple of fluke mistakes in the long program at NHK Trophy placed them behind their compatriots and knocked them out of the final. Like many top Chinese pairs, Sui/Han have superb pair elements (lifts, twists, throws) but suffer in terms of individual skating skills. They have grown enormously as performers, and it would be a shame to not see their gloriously bizarre Russian folk dance free skate at the Olympics. I have no idea how the Chinese fed chooses its Olympic team, but I hope Sui/Han get the second spot. If not, at least they’ll probably still be around for 2018.

The American Pairs – Lord help us. We have to send two pairs to the Olympics, and the Grand Prix just told us that they’re all messes. Caydee Denney/John Coughlin at least won a medal at Trophee Eric Bompard, so I think they’ve earned their spot. Their programs are very bargain bin, but you can at least count on them to skate respectably. After that, who knows. Reigning National champions Marissa Castelli/Simon Shnapir still skate like they don’t really know or like each other. Alexa Scimeca/Chris Knierim finished in the top 10 at Worlds last year, but he broke his leg over the summer, and their Grand Prix performances suggest that he came back too soon. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the second slot went to somebody who didn’t even get a Grand Prix assignment. I don’t think the U.S. fed has an idea of who to send and will legitimately let things sort themselves out at Nationals.

Other International Pairs – There’s not much else to talk about here, as the top teams made the final for the most part. Stefania Berton/Ondrej Hotarek won their fluke gold medal at Skate Canada, but I don’t think anyone really expects them to contend in Sochi. Their best case scenario is probably bottom half of the top ten. With Kavaguti/Smirnov indefinitely out of the picture, it looks like Ksenia Stolbova/Fedor Klimov will be Russian pair number three in Sochi. I enjoy them, mostly for the amazing bitchface she serves whenever he messes up.

Ice Dance

Elena Ilinykh/Nikita Katsalapov (Russia) – They used to be my guilty pleasures, but now I just want them to win the Olympic bronze. They have gorgeous body line and extension, incredible speed across the ice, and supermodel good looks. However, there’s always been something a little “off” about them, whether it’s him shooting her in the face at the end of their Schindler’s List free dance, or them recreating the story of Ghost in a competitive program last year. This year they’re playing it a bit more conservatively with a Swan Lake free dance (in which she dresses like a ballerina but does not bother to point her toes….) and a Gatsby-esque short dance that I legitimately love. They were a bit sloppy at NHK Trophy and finished off the podium, but they must have gone to some kind of boot camp over the next week when they came back and had a superb showing at Trophee Eric Bompard, placing ahead of the top French dance team on Parisian ice. Ice dance is all about politics and perception, and that performance in Paris is what they needed to stay in the conversation for the Olympic podium despite missing the Grand Prix Final. Elena and Nikita are weaker on technical elements than the other top teams, so they should focus on maximizing levels on their spins, lifts, and step sequences during this downtime. If they deliver the technical goods in Sochi, Russian wheeling and dealing will ensure that they have the program components scores they need to get near the podium.

Maia Shibutani/Alex Shibutani (United States) – Everyone’s favorite overachieving Asian-American siblings have had a giant target on their backs since their fluke bronze medal at the 2011 World Championships. Not only did they round out an unprecedented North American sweep of the ice dance medals at Worlds, but they were part of a Worlds podium comprised entirely of Marina Zueva and Igor Shpilband's students from the Canton, Michigan ice dance machine. As the youngest of the three teams and the unfortunate bearers of the siblings stigma, international ice dance judges seem to have decided that they are doomed to come in 8^th place at the Olympics no matter how they skate. Much of the criticism lobbed at the Shibutanis is valid. They are very strong technically, but they’re a bit awkward, and they have a hard time finding programs that really work for them. Alex is a total cornball, and Maia is a bit vacant. Their Michael Jackson free dance this year is at times so wrong it’s right, but it’s also kind of a snooze for the middle two minutes or so. As far as this season goes, there’s not much they can do besides think about how to better package themselves next year for when the top teams retire. At least they’ll probably regain their silver medal at Nationals this year.

Madison Chock/Evan Bates (United States) – This team had a ton of buzz last season, and they even managed to beat the Shibutanis at Nationals and Worlds. They seem to be struggling a bit this year despite bronze medal finishes at both of their Grand Prix events. They have impressive individual elements (especially the lifts), but their programs just aren’t flowing as well as they should be. This is especially true of the Les Miz free dance, where their skating never quite matches the intensity of the music in the latter half. Madison Chock is a star, and it’s hard to look away from her when they’re skating, but she is probably the weakest technically of the top ladies in dance. One gets the impression that Evan is only there to present her and then drag her around through the dance holds. I would advise starting from scratch on the free dance, but I expect there isn’t much they can do to avoid scraping the bottom of the top 10 in Sochi.

Emmy Nomination Predictions Part 2 - Comedy Series

Don't mind if I do!

Outstanding Comedy Series

“Arrested Development” (Netflix)

“The Big Bang Theory” (CBS)

“Girls” (HBO)

“Modern Family” (ABC)

 “30 Rock” (NBC)

“Veep” (HBO)

Alternate: “Louie” (FX)

Unlike in the drama categories, the networks’ prospects in the Comedy Series category are quite good. Three-time reigning champion “Modern Family” is definitely in. However, I think its winning streak is done. Critics have cooled on it and ratings, while still good, are going down. There is not a clear heir to the Comedy Series throne, but there are some options. “30 Rock” won for its first three seasons and has been nominated every year of its run. Critics hailed its farewell season as a triumphant return to form, and I could see voters giving it a farewell Emmy.

I could also see them going shamelessly commercial and giving it to “The Big Bang Theory.” The number one comedy on TV is so popular that its syndicated reruns on TBS regularly beat new programming on the networks in ratings. It will never be fashionable to like that show (notice that it never gets writing or directing nominations), but critics agreed that this season was probably its strongest. In a time when ratings are on the decline, it may be time to reward one of the few bona fide hits on TV.

The fashionable choice would no doubt be “Girls,” which ATAS really embraced in its first season. As HBO’s big comedy push, it’s definitely getting nominated again. However, I’m not totally sold on its winning potential. This season was divisive, and the show might skew too young to get the widespread support it needs for a Series victory. I still wouldn’t count it out.

 Now, on to the nominees who won’t win. “Veep” blindsided the entire industry last year by getting a Comedy Series nomination. It benefitted from Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ tour-de-force lead performance and, of course, HBO’s considerable financial backing. Last year might have been a fluke, but the critical buzz around the second season has been too strong to ignore. With “Curb Your Enthusiasm” off the air this season, HBO was able to push an even stronger awards campaign for “Veep.” At this point, I’d be very surprised if it were snubbed.

The last spot is a tight race between three strong contenders. I am giving the edge to “Arrested Development.” It’s safe to say that this show’s Netflix comeback was one of the year’s most anticipated television events. The critical and popular reception was mixed at best, but the “Arrested Development” brand has appreciated in its seven years off the air. Even when it suffered chronically poor ratings, the show was nominated for Comedy Series every year it was on the air and even won for its first season. Netflix ran a great and aggressive awards campaign, and I think its fans are glad to have it back even in slightly substandard form. It stands to reason that the people who always voted for it will vote for it again, and it’s likely gained new fans since it was on the air.

If critics voted for the Emmys, “Louie” would win, and it wouldn’t even be close. It’s not like the ATAS has totally ignored it. Just last year, it managed nominations in acting, writing, and directing, and even won for writing. Its problem thus far has been cracking the coveted Series lineup. Part of the problem is FX. The other, bigger part is that it’s very low budget. Its low cost per episode pleases the network, but it likely does not appeal to ATAS’ broad base of technicians and craftsmen who would rather vote for shows that would actually employ them. It doesn’t help that it’s been nearly a year since this show was on the air. I sincerely hope that this is the year that “Louie” breaks through, but I’m not holding my breath.

The other strong contender is “New Girl.” This is Fox’s only big scripted series push this season, and the network has a very strong Emmy track record. Despite missing the Comedy Series category, “New Girl” did very well in its first season, with acting and directing nominations. Ratings were down this year, but it ended up as one of the most critically acclaimed comedies of the season. Fox certainly seems to be pumping a lot of marketing dollars into this awards campaign, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it pay off.

For as strong as the top eight contenders are, there aren’t many conceivable spoilers. If Emmy voters are feeling nostalgic, former winner “The Office” could be back in for its farewell season. “Parks and Recreation” remains a critical darling, but its snub last year probably means that its one Comedy Series nomination two years ago was just a fluke. “Enlightened” deserves recognition, but HBO has pretty much ignored that one in its Emmy campaign blitz. This year is a bit odd in that there isn’t a buzzy breakout comedy. “The Mindy Project” is probably the closest thing we have, but that doesn’t stand much of a chance.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"

Jason Bateman, "Arrested Development"

Don Cheadle, "House of Lies"

Louis CK, "Louie"
Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men"
Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"

Alternate: Jake Johnson, "New Girl"

This is probably the bleakest category in the Emmy race. For several years now, it has been a struggle to put together a feasible list of contenders. Last year’s winner was Jon Cryer, a former perennial nominee in Supporting who wisely tested the waters in Lead for the first time. He probably won on sympathy for having to put up with Charlie Sheen, and his winning days are (hopefully) done. However, he’s probably back for this season at the very least.

Jim Parsons won the two years prior to Cryer’s category switch, and I’d be rather shocked if he missed given his show’s extreme popularity. Alec Baldwin won the two years before that, and has been nominated for every season of “30 Rock” thus far. He’ll be back, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win one more for the last season. Louis CK is probably a lock as well whether or not his show gets a Comedy Series nod.

I really start to struggle after those four. I think Jason Bateman is probably in even though he was by no stretch of the imagination the lead of this season of “Arrested Development.” Although his highlight episodes of this season of “Arrested Development” were probably the weakest of everyone’s, I’m banking on him because he has been nominated for this show before and, well, there aren’t many other options. It helps that he had a hit movie this year.

I’m giving the last spot to Don Cheadle, mostly because he was nominated last year. I don’t think anyone really cares about or likes “House of Lies,” but he’s an Oscar nominee and a movie star by TV standards. It seems like a classic one-and-done nomination, but this category lacks strong newcomers to edge him out, and perennial nominee Larry David isn’t eligible this year. Cheadle also has Showtime in his corner, and they are no slouches at Emmy campaigning. He will probably get in by the skin of his teeth.

I could really be underestimating Jake Johnson for “New Girl,” who is making the leap from the super crowded Supporting category to the friendlier Lead field. He had a great season, and he’s been a focal point of Fox’s Emmy campaign for the show. Honestly, I just felt weird predicting three acting nominations for “New Girl” and having it still miss Comedy Series. It’s a silly concern, but the Emmys don’t usually work that way. I could definitely be wrong.

The other real threat is Matt LeBlanc for “Episodes.” He made the cut two years ago, but that show lost all of its buzz in the season that it was off the air. The second season came and went virtually unnoticed. Matt LeBlanc is someone who can get probably get in on name recognition in this field, but I’d be surprised if much of ATAS watched his show this year.

Besides that, there isn’t much to talk about. Johnny Galecki was nominated for “The Big Bang Theory” two years ago, and I suppose he could be back. Matthew Perry probably signed on to “Go On” thinking it would be his Emmy vehicle, but alas, it’s already beem canceled. After “Community” finally got a writing nod last year, perhaps it is at last time for Joel McHale to get an Emmy nomination. Probably not though, especially with all the negative buzz surrounding the show’s fourth season. In my dreams, Adam Scott is a contender for “Parks and Recreation.”

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Zooey Deschanel, "New Girl"

Lena Dunham, "Girls"

Tina Fey, "30 Rock"

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"

Melissa McCarthy, "Mike & Molly"

Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"

Alternate: Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"

Conversely, this field is so crowded that we actually got seven nominees last year. The same seven are in contention again, but unless there is another tie, someone has to go. Last year’s winner, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, looks set to repeat now that her show is nearly as adored as she is. After six consecutive nominations - including one win - Tina Fey will probably make it back for the last season of “30 Rock.”

Lena Dunham is probably the most powerful woman in television now that “30 Rock” is off the air, which means that she’s getting nominated until “Girls” is over. Zooey Deschanel will likewise ride her media darling status to another nomination and will probably be an Emmy mainstay for a while. Although her show seems to be falling out of Emmy favor, Amy Poehler is beloved enough in the TV world to pull off another nomination for “Parks and Recreation,” even though it’s sadly clear that she is never winning for that.

The last spot is tough, and bizarrely enough it seems to come down to two women who have recently won this category. I’m giving the edge to Melissa McCarthy. Though “Mike & Molly” is hardly a runaway success, her star power is impossible to deny at this point. She has headlined two $100 million+ grossing films just this year and recently found herself on the Forbes Celebrity 100 for the first time. When a TV actor enjoys that kind of success, it’s usually too much for Emmy voters to pass up. At the end of the day, she’s funny and people like her. That’s usually enough. At the very least, she will get a Guest Actress nomination for hosting “Saturday Night Live.”

Things would be easier for McCarthy were she not competing against Emmy darling Edie Falco. I have a hard time reading “Nurse Jackie.” It’s obviously not the awards magnet it used to be, but it did pull off two acting nominations last year. It’s just not a show that people really talk about anymore, despite Showtime’s best marketing efforts. I think this is the year that it falls out of the top categories. However, Falco’s name on the ballot may be tough for Emmy voters to pass up.

It will be difficult for any other actresses to break into this strong field. Laura Dern for “Enlightened” is my sentimental choice, but again, there is just no HBO push behind that show. Martha Plimpton will still pick up votes for “Raising Hope,” but she’s probably done getting nominated after her snub last year. The only new option with a prayer is Mindy Kaling for “The Mindy Project.” I don’t think this is her year, but she is someone to watch for next season, especially if the critical consensus on her show keeps improving.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Will Arnett, "Arrested Development"

Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"

Jesse Tyler Ferguson, "Modern Family"

Max Greenfield, "New Girl"

Bill Hader, "Saturday Night Live:

Eric Stonestreet, "Modern Family"

Alternate: Ed O'Neill, "Modern Family"

The male cast of “Modern Family” has had a stranglehold on this category for the last three seasons. I think this is the year that it starts to lose major category nominations, and this should be the first group to take a hit. The two previous winners – Ty Burrell and Eric Stonestreet – are safe for the foreseeable future. The other two – Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Ed O’Neill – are in danger. I’m predicting that only one misses this year. Ferguson is the least showy of the bunch, but he is one half of America’s favorite gay TV couple. I imagine that most of the people voting for Eric Stonestreet are probably voting for him as well. Therefore, I think he has another season left in him. Despite being a well-known TV veteran, Ed O’Neill has never had the best luck with the Emmys. In fact, he was the only one of this group to not receive a nomination for the first season of “Modern Family.” I think he is the first to get the boot.

After that, there probably won’t be anything new or exciting in this category due to the lack of buzzy new comedies. Max Greenfield should be back thanks to the positive buzz around “New Girl.” Bill Hader’s nomination last year was a surprise, but I think he is going to repeat. This was his last year on “Saturday Night Live,” and Stefon was the most popular recurring SNL character in years. His emotional goodbye episode should be enough to convince voters to go for him again.

The last slot probably belongs to Will Arnett, who has become an Emmy darling in the years since “Arrested Development” was on TV. He was nominated for that show’s third season, and he arguably had the best material of the whole cast this year. He does face some internal competition, particularly from Jeffrey Tambor. Tambor is a multiple Emmy nominee, including two times for his work on “Arrested Development.” However, season four’s George, Sr. episodes were not particularly well received. If he makes it, it will likely be on name recognition.

As is usual with the supporting categories, there are some possible coattails nominees that depend on how their respective series are received. If this is the year for “The Big Bang Theory” to win it all, Simon Helberg might finally get nominated. If “Girls” gains momentum from last year, Adam Driver could be in. If “Veep” really catches on, Tony Hale could make it. Or perhaps the Emmy gods will smile on us and perennial snubee Nick Offerman could be nominated for “Parks and Recreation.” There are a ton of strong and worthy options just waiting for the “Modern Family” block to disintegrate.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Mayim Bialik, "The Big Bang Theory"

Julie Bowen, "Modern Family"

Kaley Cuoco, "The Big Bang Theory"

Sofia Vergara, "Modern Family"

Jessica Walter, "Arrested Development"

Allison Williams, "Girls"

Alternate: Jane Krakowski, "30 Rock"

As last year proved, Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series is consistently one of the wildest and least predictable Emmy categories. Two-time reigning winner Julie Bowen is locked in, and she probably will be until “Modern Family” is off the air. Her costar Sofia Vergara is almost certainly in as well, as she is the most famous and recognizable cast member of the show.

After that, things are much less clear. Mayim Bialik’s nomination last year came as a surprise to many, and it was perhaps a sign of growing Emmy support for “The Big Bang Theory.” She definitely has the material to make it back this year, and I think the show is probably strong enough to pull another nomination in this category. Kaley Cuoco moved herself from Lead to Supporting last season, and this might be the year that it pays off.

With the return of “Arrested Development,” I think Jessica Walter will probably get nominated. She made it in during the original run of the show, and Lucille has become more of an audience favorite in its years off the air. Walter will probably be that show’s best shot at a win, unless ATAS decides to go with Julie Bowen yet again. I’m unsure on the last spot, but I think it’s probably time for “Girls” to start getting more acting nominations. There’s probably just room for one, and Allison Williams had some Emmy baity material this year. The internal competition will be strong for her, especially from Zosia Mamet. Either could feasibly make it. If both do, look out for “Girls” as a contender for the Series win. If neither does, well……..I won’t be too sad.

The entire internet seems to think that Jane Krakowski will be back for the last season of “30 Rock,” but I am skeptical. As I’ve pointed out before, it’s tough to come back when you’ve already been snubbed. Perhaps there will be sentimentalism at play, but if Emmy beloved shows gain acting nominations for their final seasons, those spots usually go to cast members who have never been nominated before (think Kristin Davis in “Sex and the City”). It’s not like ATAS has been enamored of Krakowski’s performance on the show. She didn’t even get her first nomination until after “30 Rock” had already won Comedy Series twice. I certainly hope I’m wrong because I love her, but I don’t see it.

I have no idea what to do with Merritt Wever. I think it is safe to say that even the savviest Emmy watcher did not see that nomination coming last year. My gut says it was a fluke. “Nurse Jackie”’s days as an Emmy player seem to be just about over. However, I thought the same thing last year. Watch her get in again and win this time, because….why the hell not.

There are, of course, a few potential spoilers. Betty White is ATAS’ favorite person ever, and frankly I’m shocked that she was snubbed last year for “Hot in Cleveland.” Now that she’s out, I doubt she can get back in, but rules were made to be broken by Betty White. The Series contenders don’t have many Supporting Actress candidates that I haven’t mentioned, but Anna Chlumsky is possible if “Veep” performs well across the board. One can never underestimate old film actresses – in this case Cloris Leachman in “Raising Hope” and Diane Ladd in “Enlightened.” It seems weird not to have a “Saturday Night Live” woman in here, but nobody has emerged to Kristen Wiig status. Kate McKinnon is great, but it will be a couple of years before ATAS pays attention. 

Emmy Nominations Predictions Pt. 1 - Drama Series

Serving Claire Danes cry face realness

Hello friends! Just when you thought awards season was over, I'm back to tell you that you were painfully wrong. We are less than one week away from one of my favorite days of the year: the Emmy nominations! Because I love nothing more than predicting entertainment awards, I am going to tell you how it is going to go down.

I am very good at predicting the Oscars. I am terrible at predicting the Emmys. Why? The Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS) is a very mysterious and idiosyncratic group that usually does whatever it damn well pleases. Unlike the Motion Picture Academy, it pays no attention to groups like the Golden Globes or the Screen Actors Guild when picking its annual nominees. They tend to go for the same shows and actors over and over again until one day they're sick of them without any warning. Somehow, this group with a much more defined and limited selection of options that the Motion Picture Academy manages some zany, left-field choices every season. Who saw "Veep" getting a Comedy Series nomination last year? Or Merrit Wever in Supporting Actress for "Nurse Jackie"? Or the entire cast of "Downton Abbey" getting individual recognition? It's half the fun, and why I enjoy following the Emmys, even when I'm usually very wrong.

Without further ado, let's begin. I will tackle Drama today, Comedy tomorrow(?), and Movies/Miniseries on Monday with look at the Variety and Reality categories(??). I will keep the focus to the Series and big four acting categories in the interest of time. I also find the writing/directing categories to be even tougher to call than the rest, so I will avoid embarrassing myself. 

Outstanding Drama Series

“Breaking Bad” (AMC)

“Downton Abbey” (PBS)

“Game of Thrones” (HBO)

“Homeland” (Showtime)

 House of Cards” (Netflix)

“Mad Men” (AMC)

Alternate: “Boardwalk Empire” (HBO)

When Emmy voters like something, they really, really like it. This bodes well for “Homeland” after its sweep of Series/Actor/Actress/Writing at last year’s Emmy ceremony, even though most critics agree that it went through a sophomore slump this season. It also bodes well for AMC’s pair of Emmy darlings. “Breaking Bad” in particular seems to be at the height of its popularity and acclaim, and it is the closest thing to a lock in this category besides “Homeland.” After giving it the Drama Series trophy four years in a row, Emmy voters dumped “Mad Men” in a big way last year as its fifth season shockingly won zero of its seventeen nominations. I expect “Mad Men” to figure less and less into the big Emmy races over its final two seasons, but it should still have enough support for a Series nomination this year.

“Game of Thrones” is unquestionably the zeitgeist show of the moment, and its stunning penultimate episode seems to have eclipsed earlier complaints about this season’s relatively slower pace. As the flagship HBO drama du jour, it’s virtually guaranteed a nomination and is probably a contender for the win. Critics have jumped ship on “Downton Abbey,” but it remains one of the few water-cooler dramas on TV in a time when viewership is becoming more and more fragmented. Emmy voters have always been suckers for all things British, so “Downton Abbey” is probably a safe bet here.

The last spot is pretty open, but I’m following the buzz and going with  “House of Cards.” Netflix has jumped head-first into the world of Emmy campaigning with a surprisingly aggressive media blitz for the show. The older-skewing voting body might be wary of new distribution methods, but Netflix has made it very easy for all of ATAS to have access to “House of Cards.” Though the critical reception was less than ecstatic, people are definitely still talking about it a good four months after the entire season was released at once. If nothing else, the involvement of David Fincher and Kevin Spacey gives the project an air of Oscar prestige that I think Emmy voters will have a tough time ignoring.

I have “Boardwalk Empire” falling out after receiving nominations in this category for its first two seasons, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it in. HBO is a master at Emmy campaigning, and this was the show’s most acclaimed season yet. It’s also a handsome period piece that appeals to the TV Academy’s broad base of technical types.  I just don’t get the impression that anyone in the industry really loves this show. It has always drawn admiration, but it seems that each new slate of TV dramas pushes this one further and further out of the public consciousness.

“House of Cards” isn’t the only shiny new show in the race. “The Americans” is another critically acclaimed freshman series with a chance here. Unfortunately, that show’s Emmy chances lie in the hands of FX, which is notoriously bad at awards campaigning despite its strong lineup of original programming. “The Newsroom” has all the trappings of prestige with HBO backing it, Aaron Sorkin running the show, and a topical slant to the subject matter. I would be sold on its Emmy chances if it were actually, you know, good, but that has never stopped Emmy voters from picking low-hanging fruit in the past.

If my predictions come true, this will be the second year in a row without a network show in the Drama Series category. “The Good Wife” stands the strongest chance of making the cut, but it was snubbed last year after getting Drama Series nominations for its first two seasons. With very few exceptions, Emmy voters don’t return to shows that they’ve already dumped. The only other network show that is even in the running is maybe “Scandal,” but that one is probably too soapy. New and acclaimed network dramas like “Hannibal” and “Elementary” are not popular enough and a little too far from the Emmy comfort zone to break through.

On the cable front, “Justified” seemed like it was on the cusp of making the Drama Series lineup two years ago, but again, FX has absolutely no clue how to sell that show to Emmy voters. I don’t think this year will be any different despite positive buzz and strong reviews. “The Walking Dead” is a potential spoiler. It is the most-watched drama on TV in the coveted 18-49 demo, and AMC has become very adept at the Emmy game. It’s hard to imagine a zombie show in the Outstanding Drama Series category, but it wouldn’t be the first popular genre show to be embraced by the Emmys (“Star Trek: The Next Generation,” “The X-Files,” “True Blood.”) If anything I haven’t mentioned somehow gets nominated, I quit.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire”

Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”

Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom”

Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”

Damian Lewis, “Homeland”

Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards”

Alternate: Michael C. Hall, “Dexter”

Unless you’re Kyra Sedgwick, the Emmys never fail to nominate last year’s acting winners (unless, of course, they won their Emmy for their death episode). This means that Damien Lewis is as locked as can be. Even though everyone complained about his story this season, he has a couple of episode submissions that could easily win him another Emmy. Sorry. Likewise, three-time Emmy winner Bryan Cranston chewed as much scenery as ever in this season of “Breaking Bad,” so he is looking very good for a nomination.

Jon “always the bridesmaid” Hamm should get his sixth consecutive nomination for “Mad Men,” although it has become painfully obvious to even the most diehard “Mad Men” fans that he is just never going to win at this point. Though “Boardwalk Empire” is likely on its way out as an Emmy darling, Steve Buscemi still had enough baity material to land a third nomination for the show. He’s well-liked enough to coast along as a filler nominee for the foreseeable future.

Emmy voters always pay attention when movie stars do TV. This is especially true for actors with Oscars, and Kevin Spacey has two of those. Even if “House of Cards” fails to catch on with ATAS, Spacey is too Emmy-baity to ignore. It is the kind of Acting with a capital A that voters tend to respond to. He might even prove to be Lewis’ biggest challenge for the win. I’m giving the last spot to Daniels, who is also a recognizable star in a vehicle that is very much tailored to his strengths. 

There are a number of spoilers, of course. Michael C. Hall has been nominated five times in a row, but Emmy voters dumped “Dexter” in a big way last season, and I don’t see them going back. Since Hall is obviously never going to win at this point, I think it’s finally his time to get the boot. They did eventually stop nominating Hugh Laurie for “House,” after all.  Still, he’s a name, and he would make sense as a lazy filler nominee. Hugh Bonneville for “Downton Abbey” also fits the bill of lazy filler, especially if “The Newsroom” doesn’t catch on. “Downton” is an actors’ favorite, as evidenced by its jaw-dropping six acting nominations last season. Despite his lack of good material this year, the show’s fans could rally behind him again.

If ATAS really warms up to “The Americans,” then Matthew Rhys is a contender here. Not to beat a dead horse here, but with FX behind him, it’s probably not happening. Ditto Timothy Olyphant for “Justified,” who probably doesn’t have much of a chance at making it back after being mercilessly snubbed last year. Kevin Bacon is on the radar for “The Following” if only because he’s famous, but the overwhelmingly negative critical consensus for the show will be hard to overcome.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Claire Danes, “Homeland”

Michelle Dockery, “Downton Abbey”

Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”

Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men”

Kerry Washington, “Scandal”

Robin Wright, “House of Cards”

Alternate: Glenn Close, “Damages”

This category is unexpectedly packed this year, which of course makes me happy. Claire Danes is a lock, and she’s probably winning again. After that, I don’t think anyone is necessarily safe. Elisabeth Moss makes sense, as she’s been nominated for “Mad Men” every year since the second season. But as I said before, “Mad Men” is losing serious steam. It’s only a matter of time before that becomes apparent in its nominations haul. I’ve always thought that Moss was a tough sell as a lead of the show, though she certainly gets more screen time than anyone besides Jon Hamm. That hasn’t hurt her in the past, but she could be vulnerable.

Julianna Margulies in an Emmy institution, and she has, of course, already won for “The Good Wife.” However, that show is also running out of awards clout, as we saw last year when it missed Drama Series. She’s probably safe for this season, but it’s only a matter of time before she goes the way of other Emmy mainstays like Mariska Hargitay and Kyra Sedgwick. Michelle Dockery was another beneficiary from last year’s “Downtown Abbey” acting love fest. Unlike Hugh Bonneville, she has become the face of the show, and she’s been very visible in the press since “Downton” fever captured the hearts of housewives across America. At the same time, she lacked traditionally Emmy-baity material this season. Her years in this category are numbered, but I think she’s probably good for another nomination while the show is still popular.

Now, let’s talk about who had very Emmy-baity material this season: Kerry Washington. “Scandal” wasn’t even close to the Emmy radar last year, but now the show is a magazine cover staple. At its center is Washington turning out stellar work every week, and people are paying attention. She also has the extra buzz factor of being the first African American actress to headline a primetime network drama series in about 40 years. She is going to be difficult to ignore, and it will be very conspicuous if ATAS does so.

I’m hesitant on the last spot, but Robin Wright makes sense if “House of Cards” proves to be as popular as I think it will be. Like Elisabeth Moss, it is a stretch to call her a lead of the show, but buzzy shows are able to pull off these kinds of nominations. The critical acclaim for her performance is there, and Netflix has done a great job of highlighting her in its media campaign. She’s been around the industry for a long time and has a reputation as a hard worker who hasn’t always had the best luck. I think there is enough support there to pull her in.

It’s probably overly optimistic of me to leave Glenn Close out. She did win twice for “Damages,” after all. I just don’t think anyone realized it was still on the air this season. It’s been about a year since the series ended at this point. Still, she’s a respected veteran with an Oscar pedigree. That helped Kathy Bates make it in for “Harry’s Law” last year even though nobody probably watched it. Close could be back for a farewell nomination.

There are tons of worthy newcomers to consider. Keri Russell is the best chance for “The Americans” to crack the top categories, and I actually wouldn’t be shocked if she pulled it off. Oscar pedigree could help Vera Farmiga sneak in for “Bates Motel,” though this is A&E’s first shot at campaigning an original series. Tatiana Maslany had the blogosphere ablaze with her stunning multi-character act in “Orphan Black,” but it’s a sci-fi show on BBC America. I can’t really think of a tougher Emmy sell, sadly (RIP Mary McDonnell in “Battlestar Galactica”). Finally, former nominee Connie Britton got great critical ink for “Nashville,” but the show turned into a small ratings fiasco and got too soapy to be taken seriously as the season progressed.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Jonathan Banks, “Breaking Bad”

Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”

Rob James-Collier, “Downton Abbey”

Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland”

Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad”

Corey Stoll, “House of Cards”

Alternate: Nikolaj Costar-Waldau, “Game of Thrones”

This category is a hot mess, and I might as well not even try. However, these six make decent sense to me. Reigning champion Aaron Paul is almost certainly in, though I would be surprised if he managed to win again. Ditto former winner Peter Dinklage, who should still be riding high on the wave of popularity for “Game of Thrones” even though he didn’t have much to do this season.

Mandy Patinkin seems like such an obvious nominee, but I thought the same thing last year when he was snubbed. I’m going to count that as a fluke and assume that “Homeland” has enough clout as the reigning Drama Series champion to get more acting nominations this year. I’m also going to assume that “Breaking Bad” now has the pull to regularly get two nominations in this category. Now that Giancarlo Espositio is off the show, it’s probably time for Jonathan Banks to finally get his Emmy nod.

“Downton Abbey” rather shockingly got two nominations in this category last year, which is certainly not outside the realm of possibility this season. I think Jim Carter and Brendan Coyle are probably out (seriously, how did they BOTH make it last year??), but it would be foolish to count out the entire male cast of “Downton Abbey.” I will refrain from spoilers, but Rob James-Collier has a VERY Emmy-baity season. Last year proved that it doesn’t really matter if no one knows his name. The “Downton” lobby is strong. It truly is amazing how well this show manages to perform with the Emmys basically on its own accord. Lord knows PBS doesn’t have the funds to launch an Emmy campaign.

The last spot is contingent upon how a number of shows are received by the voting body. Assuming that “House of Cards” is a hit, Corey Stoll is probably in. He had killer material, plus a widely publicized story that the showrunners greatly expanded his role because he was so good. He also has a submission tape that could probably win him an Emmy if he were nominated.

I’m curious to see how “Game of Thrones does in the acting categories. Dinklage was the only acting nominee for the first two seasons, probably because the cast is so large and impressive that it’s hard to single anyone out. If this is its Emmy-winning season, it will probably pick up a couple more acting nods. Nikolaj Costar-Waldau had his showiest and most human season yet, and he is certainly a strong spoiler here.

It feels odd not including anyone from “Mad Men.” Perennial nominee John Slattery was snubbed last season for Jared Harris, who is obviously no longer on the show. Slattery could certainly make it back in, but I think it’s likelier that “Mad Men” has lost its Supporting Actor spot for good. Vincent Kartheiser seemed to be on the verge of breaking in to this category in the past, but he just didn’t have the material this year.

If “The Newsroom” breaks into the top category (or maybe even if it doesn’t), expect to see Sam Waterston get a nomination here. If “Boardwalk Empire” is stronger than I suspect, Bobby Cannavale could be recognized for his great arc this season. If Emmy voters are feeling sentimental, Larry Hagman could get a posthumous nomination for “Dallas.” Really, the possibilities here are frighteningly endless.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife”

Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad”

Christina Hendricks, “Mad Men”

Elizabeth McGovern, “Downton Abbey”

Monica Potter, “Parenthood”

Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey”

Alternate: Michelle Fairley, “Game of Thrones”

Maggie Smith is obviously getting nominated for playing herself, as always. Hell, I wouldn’t be shocked if she won again. It won’t be as easy as it was last year. After she finally broke through to the nominations last season, Anna Gunn is probably a lock. She definitely has the material to win if she chooses her episode submissions wisely.

“Downton Abbey” also received two nominations in this category last season, though I doubt Joanne Froggatt (again…..who??) manages to come back. Elizabeth McGovern wisely submitted herself in the Supporting category after missing out on a Lead Actress nom last year. Her season three material was probably the best she’s gotten over the course of the series, so she is looking quite good for a nomination.

Christina Hendricks is a default nominee at this point in “Mad Men”’s Emmy run, but I’m worried for her. Fans bemoaned the lack of Joan this season, and she didn’t have a showcase episode like “The Other Woman” to put her in contention for the win. She will probably coast by on name recognition, but I don’t think she’s safe.

“The Good Wife” lost all of its Supporting Actor nominations last year, and I expect it to start losing Supporting Actress slots this year. Christine Baranski and Archie Panjabi both made it for the show’s first three seasons, but I think this is the year that one of them is dropped. Though Panjabi has won an Emmy for this show, I think she’s out. Her arc this season was critically panned, and then she was put on the backburner once it was resolved. Baranski had a much better season, and she is a hard working veteran who gets Emmy love whenever she’s on TV. I think she has another season in her before she gets the boot as well. I actually wouldn’t be surprised by any combination of one, both, or none of these women in this category.

I’m following the buzz on the last spot and giving it to Monica Potter. “Parenthood” has received little Emmy attention in its four seasons on the air, but it gets consistently strong reviews and manages to survive every wave of cancellations because NBC doesn’t have anything better. This year, Potter’s arc was impossibly Emmy-baity, and she received glowing acclaim across the board. It helps that she’s NBC’s only real push in the Drama categories, and they have money to throw behind her that niche cable networks wouldn’t. She’s certainly made the media rounds and has come across as very personable and sincere. She’s another candidate who can win if she pulls off the nomination.

This is another category to watch for “Game of Thrones.” Michelle Fairley and Emilia Clarke both had great seasons and should attract some votes. On the “Mad Men” front, January Jones had her most substantial material since season three – the last time she got an Emmy nomination. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her make it, maybe even at the expense of Christina Hendricks.

If everyone goes nuts for “Homeland,” Morena Baccarin could sneak in (please no). Similarly, a “House of Cards” love fest could translate into a nod for Kate Mara (again, please God no). And I would not rule out the possibility of the entire female cast of “Downton Abbey” getting nominated.