Emmy Nomination Predictions Part 2 - Comedy Series

Don't mind if I do!

Outstanding Comedy Series

“Arrested Development” (Netflix)

“The Big Bang Theory” (CBS)

“Girls” (HBO)

“Modern Family” (ABC)

 “30 Rock” (NBC)

“Veep” (HBO)

Alternate: “Louie” (FX)

Unlike in the drama categories, the networks’ prospects in the Comedy Series category are quite good. Three-time reigning champion “Modern Family” is definitely in. However, I think its winning streak is done. Critics have cooled on it and ratings, while still good, are going down. There is not a clear heir to the Comedy Series throne, but there are some options. “30 Rock” won for its first three seasons and has been nominated every year of its run. Critics hailed its farewell season as a triumphant return to form, and I could see voters giving it a farewell Emmy.

I could also see them going shamelessly commercial and giving it to “The Big Bang Theory.” The number one comedy on TV is so popular that its syndicated reruns on TBS regularly beat new programming on the networks in ratings. It will never be fashionable to like that show (notice that it never gets writing or directing nominations), but critics agreed that this season was probably its strongest. In a time when ratings are on the decline, it may be time to reward one of the few bona fide hits on TV.

The fashionable choice would no doubt be “Girls,” which ATAS really embraced in its first season. As HBO’s big comedy push, it’s definitely getting nominated again. However, I’m not totally sold on its winning potential. This season was divisive, and the show might skew too young to get the widespread support it needs for a Series victory. I still wouldn’t count it out.

 Now, on to the nominees who won’t win. “Veep” blindsided the entire industry last year by getting a Comedy Series nomination. It benefitted from Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ tour-de-force lead performance and, of course, HBO’s considerable financial backing. Last year might have been a fluke, but the critical buzz around the second season has been too strong to ignore. With “Curb Your Enthusiasm” off the air this season, HBO was able to push an even stronger awards campaign for “Veep.” At this point, I’d be very surprised if it were snubbed.

The last spot is a tight race between three strong contenders. I am giving the edge to “Arrested Development.” It’s safe to say that this show’s Netflix comeback was one of the year’s most anticipated television events. The critical and popular reception was mixed at best, but the “Arrested Development” brand has appreciated in its seven years off the air. Even when it suffered chronically poor ratings, the show was nominated for Comedy Series every year it was on the air and even won for its first season. Netflix ran a great and aggressive awards campaign, and I think its fans are glad to have it back even in slightly substandard form. It stands to reason that the people who always voted for it will vote for it again, and it’s likely gained new fans since it was on the air.

If critics voted for the Emmys, “Louie” would win, and it wouldn’t even be close. It’s not like the ATAS has totally ignored it. Just last year, it managed nominations in acting, writing, and directing, and even won for writing. Its problem thus far has been cracking the coveted Series lineup. Part of the problem is FX. The other, bigger part is that it’s very low budget. Its low cost per episode pleases the network, but it likely does not appeal to ATAS’ broad base of technicians and craftsmen who would rather vote for shows that would actually employ them. It doesn’t help that it’s been nearly a year since this show was on the air. I sincerely hope that this is the year that “Louie” breaks through, but I’m not holding my breath.

The other strong contender is “New Girl.” This is Fox’s only big scripted series push this season, and the network has a very strong Emmy track record. Despite missing the Comedy Series category, “New Girl” did very well in its first season, with acting and directing nominations. Ratings were down this year, but it ended up as one of the most critically acclaimed comedies of the season. Fox certainly seems to be pumping a lot of marketing dollars into this awards campaign, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it pay off.

For as strong as the top eight contenders are, there aren’t many conceivable spoilers. If Emmy voters are feeling nostalgic, former winner “The Office” could be back in for its farewell season. “Parks and Recreation” remains a critical darling, but its snub last year probably means that its one Comedy Series nomination two years ago was just a fluke. “Enlightened” deserves recognition, but HBO has pretty much ignored that one in its Emmy campaign blitz. This year is a bit odd in that there isn’t a buzzy breakout comedy. “The Mindy Project” is probably the closest thing we have, but that doesn’t stand much of a chance.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"

Jason Bateman, "Arrested Development"

Don Cheadle, "House of Lies"

Louis CK, "Louie"
Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men"
Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"

Alternate: Jake Johnson, "New Girl"

This is probably the bleakest category in the Emmy race. For several years now, it has been a struggle to put together a feasible list of contenders. Last year’s winner was Jon Cryer, a former perennial nominee in Supporting who wisely tested the waters in Lead for the first time. He probably won on sympathy for having to put up with Charlie Sheen, and his winning days are (hopefully) done. However, he’s probably back for this season at the very least.

Jim Parsons won the two years prior to Cryer’s category switch, and I’d be rather shocked if he missed given his show’s extreme popularity. Alec Baldwin won the two years before that, and has been nominated for every season of “30 Rock” thus far. He’ll be back, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win one more for the last season. Louis CK is probably a lock as well whether or not his show gets a Comedy Series nod.

I really start to struggle after those four. I think Jason Bateman is probably in even though he was by no stretch of the imagination the lead of this season of “Arrested Development.” Although his highlight episodes of this season of “Arrested Development” were probably the weakest of everyone’s, I’m banking on him because he has been nominated for this show before and, well, there aren’t many other options. It helps that he had a hit movie this year.

I’m giving the last spot to Don Cheadle, mostly because he was nominated last year. I don’t think anyone really cares about or likes “House of Lies,” but he’s an Oscar nominee and a movie star by TV standards. It seems like a classic one-and-done nomination, but this category lacks strong newcomers to edge him out, and perennial nominee Larry David isn’t eligible this year. Cheadle also has Showtime in his corner, and they are no slouches at Emmy campaigning. He will probably get in by the skin of his teeth.

I could really be underestimating Jake Johnson for “New Girl,” who is making the leap from the super crowded Supporting category to the friendlier Lead field. He had a great season, and he’s been a focal point of Fox’s Emmy campaign for the show. Honestly, I just felt weird predicting three acting nominations for “New Girl” and having it still miss Comedy Series. It’s a silly concern, but the Emmys don’t usually work that way. I could definitely be wrong.

The other real threat is Matt LeBlanc for “Episodes.” He made the cut two years ago, but that show lost all of its buzz in the season that it was off the air. The second season came and went virtually unnoticed. Matt LeBlanc is someone who can get probably get in on name recognition in this field, but I’d be surprised if much of ATAS watched his show this year.

Besides that, there isn’t much to talk about. Johnny Galecki was nominated for “The Big Bang Theory” two years ago, and I suppose he could be back. Matthew Perry probably signed on to “Go On” thinking it would be his Emmy vehicle, but alas, it’s already beem canceled. After “Community” finally got a writing nod last year, perhaps it is at last time for Joel McHale to get an Emmy nomination. Probably not though, especially with all the negative buzz surrounding the show’s fourth season. In my dreams, Adam Scott is a contender for “Parks and Recreation.”

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Zooey Deschanel, "New Girl"

Lena Dunham, "Girls"

Tina Fey, "30 Rock"

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"

Melissa McCarthy, "Mike & Molly"

Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"

Alternate: Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"

Conversely, this field is so crowded that we actually got seven nominees last year. The same seven are in contention again, but unless there is another tie, someone has to go. Last year’s winner, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, looks set to repeat now that her show is nearly as adored as she is. After six consecutive nominations - including one win - Tina Fey will probably make it back for the last season of “30 Rock.”

Lena Dunham is probably the most powerful woman in television now that “30 Rock” is off the air, which means that she’s getting nominated until “Girls” is over. Zooey Deschanel will likewise ride her media darling status to another nomination and will probably be an Emmy mainstay for a while. Although her show seems to be falling out of Emmy favor, Amy Poehler is beloved enough in the TV world to pull off another nomination for “Parks and Recreation,” even though it’s sadly clear that she is never winning for that.

The last spot is tough, and bizarrely enough it seems to come down to two women who have recently won this category. I’m giving the edge to Melissa McCarthy. Though “Mike & Molly” is hardly a runaway success, her star power is impossible to deny at this point. She has headlined two $100 million+ grossing films just this year and recently found herself on the Forbes Celebrity 100 for the first time. When a TV actor enjoys that kind of success, it’s usually too much for Emmy voters to pass up. At the end of the day, she’s funny and people like her. That’s usually enough. At the very least, she will get a Guest Actress nomination for hosting “Saturday Night Live.”

Things would be easier for McCarthy were she not competing against Emmy darling Edie Falco. I have a hard time reading “Nurse Jackie.” It’s obviously not the awards magnet it used to be, but it did pull off two acting nominations last year. It’s just not a show that people really talk about anymore, despite Showtime’s best marketing efforts. I think this is the year that it falls out of the top categories. However, Falco’s name on the ballot may be tough for Emmy voters to pass up.

It will be difficult for any other actresses to break into this strong field. Laura Dern for “Enlightened” is my sentimental choice, but again, there is just no HBO push behind that show. Martha Plimpton will still pick up votes for “Raising Hope,” but she’s probably done getting nominated after her snub last year. The only new option with a prayer is Mindy Kaling for “The Mindy Project.” I don’t think this is her year, but she is someone to watch for next season, especially if the critical consensus on her show keeps improving.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Will Arnett, "Arrested Development"

Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"

Jesse Tyler Ferguson, "Modern Family"

Max Greenfield, "New Girl"

Bill Hader, "Saturday Night Live:

Eric Stonestreet, "Modern Family"

Alternate: Ed O'Neill, "Modern Family"

The male cast of “Modern Family” has had a stranglehold on this category for the last three seasons. I think this is the year that it starts to lose major category nominations, and this should be the first group to take a hit. The two previous winners – Ty Burrell and Eric Stonestreet – are safe for the foreseeable future. The other two – Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Ed O’Neill – are in danger. I’m predicting that only one misses this year. Ferguson is the least showy of the bunch, but he is one half of America’s favorite gay TV couple. I imagine that most of the people voting for Eric Stonestreet are probably voting for him as well. Therefore, I think he has another season left in him. Despite being a well-known TV veteran, Ed O’Neill has never had the best luck with the Emmys. In fact, he was the only one of this group to not receive a nomination for the first season of “Modern Family.” I think he is the first to get the boot.

After that, there probably won’t be anything new or exciting in this category due to the lack of buzzy new comedies. Max Greenfield should be back thanks to the positive buzz around “New Girl.” Bill Hader’s nomination last year was a surprise, but I think he is going to repeat. This was his last year on “Saturday Night Live,” and Stefon was the most popular recurring SNL character in years. His emotional goodbye episode should be enough to convince voters to go for him again.

The last slot probably belongs to Will Arnett, who has become an Emmy darling in the years since “Arrested Development” was on TV. He was nominated for that show’s third season, and he arguably had the best material of the whole cast this year. He does face some internal competition, particularly from Jeffrey Tambor. Tambor is a multiple Emmy nominee, including two times for his work on “Arrested Development.” However, season four’s George, Sr. episodes were not particularly well received. If he makes it, it will likely be on name recognition.

As is usual with the supporting categories, there are some possible coattails nominees that depend on how their respective series are received. If this is the year for “The Big Bang Theory” to win it all, Simon Helberg might finally get nominated. If “Girls” gains momentum from last year, Adam Driver could be in. If “Veep” really catches on, Tony Hale could make it. Or perhaps the Emmy gods will smile on us and perennial snubee Nick Offerman could be nominated for “Parks and Recreation.” There are a ton of strong and worthy options just waiting for the “Modern Family” block to disintegrate.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Mayim Bialik, "The Big Bang Theory"

Julie Bowen, "Modern Family"

Kaley Cuoco, "The Big Bang Theory"

Sofia Vergara, "Modern Family"

Jessica Walter, "Arrested Development"

Allison Williams, "Girls"

Alternate: Jane Krakowski, "30 Rock"

As last year proved, Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series is consistently one of the wildest and least predictable Emmy categories. Two-time reigning winner Julie Bowen is locked in, and she probably will be until “Modern Family” is off the air. Her costar Sofia Vergara is almost certainly in as well, as she is the most famous and recognizable cast member of the show.

After that, things are much less clear. Mayim Bialik’s nomination last year came as a surprise to many, and it was perhaps a sign of growing Emmy support for “The Big Bang Theory.” She definitely has the material to make it back this year, and I think the show is probably strong enough to pull another nomination in this category. Kaley Cuoco moved herself from Lead to Supporting last season, and this might be the year that it pays off.

With the return of “Arrested Development,” I think Jessica Walter will probably get nominated. She made it in during the original run of the show, and Lucille has become more of an audience favorite in its years off the air. Walter will probably be that show’s best shot at a win, unless ATAS decides to go with Julie Bowen yet again. I’m unsure on the last spot, but I think it’s probably time for “Girls” to start getting more acting nominations. There’s probably just room for one, and Allison Williams had some Emmy baity material this year. The internal competition will be strong for her, especially from Zosia Mamet. Either could feasibly make it. If both do, look out for “Girls” as a contender for the Series win. If neither does, well……..I won’t be too sad.

The entire internet seems to think that Jane Krakowski will be back for the last season of “30 Rock,” but I am skeptical. As I’ve pointed out before, it’s tough to come back when you’ve already been snubbed. Perhaps there will be sentimentalism at play, but if Emmy beloved shows gain acting nominations for their final seasons, those spots usually go to cast members who have never been nominated before (think Kristin Davis in “Sex and the City”). It’s not like ATAS has been enamored of Krakowski’s performance on the show. She didn’t even get her first nomination until after “30 Rock” had already won Comedy Series twice. I certainly hope I’m wrong because I love her, but I don’t see it.

I have no idea what to do with Merritt Wever. I think it is safe to say that even the savviest Emmy watcher did not see that nomination coming last year. My gut says it was a fluke. “Nurse Jackie”’s days as an Emmy player seem to be just about over. However, I thought the same thing last year. Watch her get in again and win this time, because….why the hell not.

There are, of course, a few potential spoilers. Betty White is ATAS’ favorite person ever, and frankly I’m shocked that she was snubbed last year for “Hot in Cleveland.” Now that she’s out, I doubt she can get back in, but rules were made to be broken by Betty White. The Series contenders don’t have many Supporting Actress candidates that I haven’t mentioned, but Anna Chlumsky is possible if “Veep” performs well across the board. One can never underestimate old film actresses – in this case Cloris Leachman in “Raising Hope” and Diane Ladd in “Enlightened.” It seems weird not to have a “Saturday Night Live” woman in here, but nobody has emerged to Kristen Wiig status. Kate McKinnon is great, but it will be a couple of years before ATAS pays attention.