Serving Claire Danes cry face realness
Hello friends! Just when you thought awards season was over, I'm back to tell you that you were painfully wrong. We are less than one week away from one of my favorite days of the year: the Emmy nominations! Because I love nothing more than predicting entertainment awards, I am going to tell you how it is going to go down.
I am very good at predicting the Oscars. I am terrible at predicting the Emmys. Why? The Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS) is a very mysterious and idiosyncratic group that usually does whatever it damn well pleases. Unlike the Motion Picture Academy, it pays no attention to groups like the Golden Globes or the Screen Actors Guild when picking its annual nominees. They tend to go for the same shows and actors over and over again until one day they're sick of them without any warning. Somehow, this group with a much more defined and limited selection of options that the Motion Picture Academy manages some zany, left-field choices every season. Who saw "Veep" getting a Comedy Series nomination last year? Or Merrit Wever in Supporting Actress for "Nurse Jackie"? Or the entire cast of "Downton Abbey" getting individual recognition? It's half the fun, and why I enjoy following the Emmys, even when I'm usually very wrong.
Without further ado, let's begin. I will tackle Drama today, Comedy tomorrow(?), and Movies/Miniseries on Monday with look at the Variety and Reality categories(??). I will keep the focus to the Series and big four acting categories in the interest of time. I also find the writing/directing categories to be even tougher to call than the rest, so I will avoid embarrassing myself.
Outstanding Drama
Series
“Breaking Bad” (AMC)
“Downton Abbey” (PBS)
“Game of Thrones” (HBO)
“Homeland” (Showtime)
House of Cards”
(Netflix)
“Mad Men” (AMC)
Alternate: “Boardwalk Empire” (HBO)
When Emmy voters like something, they really, really like
it. This bodes well for “Homeland” after its sweep of
Series/Actor/Actress/Writing at last year’s Emmy ceremony, even though most
critics agree that it went through a sophomore slump this season. It also bodes
well for AMC’s pair of Emmy darlings. “Breaking Bad” in particular seems to be
at the height of its popularity and acclaim, and it is the closest thing to a
lock in this category besides “Homeland.” After giving it the Drama Series
trophy four years in a row, Emmy voters dumped “Mad Men” in a big way last year
as its fifth season shockingly won zero of its seventeen nominations. I expect
“Mad Men” to figure less and less into the big Emmy races over its final two
seasons, but it should still have enough support for a Series nomination this
year.
“Game of Thrones” is unquestionably the zeitgeist show of
the moment, and its stunning penultimate episode seems to have eclipsed earlier
complaints about this season’s relatively slower pace. As the flagship HBO
drama du jour, it’s virtually guaranteed a nomination and is probably a contender
for the win. Critics have jumped ship on “Downton Abbey,” but it remains one of
the few water-cooler dramas on TV in a time when viewership is becoming more
and more fragmented. Emmy voters have always been suckers for all things
British, so “Downton Abbey” is probably a safe bet here.
The last spot is pretty open, but I’m following the buzz and
going with “House of Cards.” Netflix has
jumped head-first into the world of Emmy campaigning with a surprisingly
aggressive media blitz for the show. The older-skewing voting body might be
wary of new distribution methods, but Netflix has made it very easy for all of
ATAS to have access to “House of Cards.” Though the critical reception was less
than ecstatic, people are definitely still talking about it a good four months
after the entire season was released at once. If nothing else, the involvement
of David Fincher and Kevin Spacey gives the project an air of Oscar prestige
that I think Emmy voters will have a tough time ignoring.
I have “Boardwalk Empire” falling out after receiving
nominations in this category for its first two seasons, but I wouldn’t be
surprised to see it in. HBO is a master at Emmy campaigning, and this was the
show’s most acclaimed season yet. It’s also a handsome period piece that appeals
to the TV Academy’s broad base of technical types. I just don’t get the impression that anyone
in the industry really loves this
show. It has always drawn admiration, but it seems that each new slate of TV
dramas pushes this one further and further out of the public consciousness.
“House of Cards” isn’t the only shiny new show in the race.
“The Americans” is another critically acclaimed freshman series with a chance
here. Unfortunately, that show’s Emmy chances lie in the hands of FX, which is
notoriously bad at awards campaigning despite its strong lineup of original
programming. “The Newsroom” has all the trappings of prestige with HBO backing
it, Aaron Sorkin running the show, and a topical slant to the subject matter. I
would be sold on its Emmy chances if it were actually, you know, good, but that
has never stopped Emmy voters from picking low-hanging fruit in the past.
If my predictions come true, this will be the second year in
a row without a network show in the Drama Series category. “The Good Wife”
stands the strongest chance of making the cut, but it was snubbed last year
after getting Drama Series nominations for its first two seasons. With very few
exceptions, Emmy voters don’t return to shows that they’ve already dumped. The
only other network show that is even in the running is maybe “Scandal,” but
that one is probably too soapy. New and acclaimed network dramas like
“Hannibal” and “Elementary” are not popular enough and a little too far from
the Emmy comfort zone to break through.
On the cable front, “Justified” seemed like it was on the
cusp of making the Drama Series lineup two years ago, but again, FX has
absolutely no clue how to sell that show to Emmy voters. I don’t think this
year will be any different despite positive buzz and strong reviews. “The
Walking Dead” is a potential spoiler. It is the most-watched drama on TV in the
coveted 18-49 demo, and AMC has become very adept at the Emmy game. It’s hard
to imagine a zombie show in the Outstanding Drama Series category, but it
wouldn’t be the first popular genre show to be embraced by the Emmys (“Star
Trek: The Next Generation,” “The X-Files,” “True Blood.”) If anything I haven’t
mentioned somehow gets nominated, I quit.
Outstanding Lead
Actor in a Drama Series
Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire”
Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”
Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom”
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Damian Lewis, “Homeland”
Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards”
Alternate: Michael C. Hall, “Dexter”
Unless you’re Kyra Sedgwick, the Emmys never fail to
nominate last year’s acting winners (unless, of course, they won their Emmy for
their death episode). This means that Damien Lewis is as locked as can be. Even
though everyone complained about his story this season, he has a couple of
episode submissions that could easily win him another Emmy. Sorry. Likewise,
three-time Emmy winner Bryan Cranston chewed as much scenery as ever in this
season of “Breaking Bad,” so he is looking very good for a nomination.
Jon “always the bridesmaid” Hamm should get his sixth
consecutive nomination for “Mad Men,” although it has become painfully obvious
to even the most diehard “Mad Men” fans that he is just never going to win at
this point. Though “Boardwalk Empire” is likely on its way out as an Emmy
darling, Steve Buscemi still had enough baity material to land a third
nomination for the show. He’s well-liked enough to coast along as a filler
nominee for the foreseeable future.
Emmy voters always pay attention when movie stars do TV.
This is especially true for actors with Oscars, and Kevin Spacey has two of
those. Even if “House of Cards” fails to catch on with ATAS, Spacey is too
Emmy-baity to ignore. It is the kind of Acting with a capital A that voters
tend to respond to. He might even prove to be Lewis’ biggest challenge for the
win. I’m giving the last spot to Daniels, who is also a recognizable star in a
vehicle that is very much tailored to his strengths.
There are a number of spoilers, of course. Michael C. Hall
has been nominated five times in a row, but Emmy voters dumped “Dexter” in a
big way last season, and I don’t see them going back. Since Hall is obviously
never going to win at this point, I think it’s finally his time to get the
boot. They did eventually stop nominating Hugh Laurie for “House,” after all. Still, he’s a name, and he would make sense as
a lazy filler nominee. Hugh Bonneville for “Downton Abbey” also fits the bill
of lazy filler, especially if “The Newsroom” doesn’t catch on. “Downton” is an
actors’ favorite, as evidenced by its jaw-dropping six acting nominations last
season. Despite his lack of good material this year, the show’s fans could
rally behind him again.
If ATAS really warms up to “The Americans,” then Matthew
Rhys is a contender here. Not to beat a dead horse here, but with FX behind
him, it’s probably not happening. Ditto Timothy Olyphant for “Justified,” who
probably doesn’t have much of a chance at making it back after being
mercilessly snubbed last year. Kevin Bacon is on the radar for “The Following”
if only because he’s famous, but the overwhelmingly negative critical consensus
for the show will be hard to overcome.
Outstanding Lead
Actress in a Drama Series
Claire Danes, “Homeland”
Michelle Dockery, “Downton Abbey”
Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”
Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men”
Kerry Washington, “Scandal”
Robin Wright, “House of Cards”
Alternate: Glenn Close, “Damages”
This category is unexpectedly packed this year, which of
course makes me happy. Claire Danes is a lock, and she’s probably winning again.
After that, I don’t think anyone is necessarily safe. Elisabeth Moss makes
sense, as she’s been nominated for “Mad Men” every year since the second
season. But as I said before, “Mad Men” is losing serious steam. It’s only a
matter of time before that becomes apparent in its nominations haul. I’ve
always thought that Moss was a tough sell as a lead of the show, though she
certainly gets more screen time than anyone besides Jon Hamm. That hasn’t hurt
her in the past, but she could be vulnerable.
Julianna Margulies in an Emmy institution, and she has, of
course, already won for “The Good Wife.” However, that show is also running out
of awards clout, as we saw last year when it missed Drama Series. She’s
probably safe for this season, but it’s only a matter of time before she goes
the way of other Emmy mainstays like Mariska Hargitay and Kyra Sedgwick. Michelle
Dockery was another beneficiary from last year’s “Downtown Abbey” acting love
fest. Unlike Hugh Bonneville, she has become the face of the show, and she’s been
very visible in the press since “Downton” fever captured the hearts of
housewives across America. At the same time, she lacked traditionally
Emmy-baity material this season. Her years in this category are numbered, but I
think she’s probably good for another nomination while the show is still
popular.
Now, let’s talk about who had very Emmy-baity material this
season: Kerry Washington. “Scandal” wasn’t even close to the Emmy radar last
year, but now the show is a magazine cover staple. At its center is Washington
turning out stellar work every week, and people are paying attention. She also
has the extra buzz factor of being the first African American actress to
headline a primetime network drama series in about 40 years. She is going to be
difficult to ignore, and it will be very conspicuous if ATAS does so.
I’m hesitant on the last spot, but Robin Wright makes sense
if “House of Cards” proves to be as popular as I think it will be. Like
Elisabeth Moss, it is a stretch to call her a lead of the show, but buzzy shows
are able to pull off these kinds of nominations. The critical acclaim for her
performance is there, and Netflix has done a great job of highlighting her in
its media campaign. She’s been around the industry for a long time and has a
reputation as a hard worker who hasn’t always had the best luck. I think there
is enough support there to pull her in.
It’s probably overly optimistic of me to leave Glenn Close out.
She did win twice for “Damages,” after all. I just don’t think anyone realized
it was still on the air this season. It’s been about a year since the series
ended at this point. Still, she’s a respected veteran with an Oscar pedigree.
That helped Kathy Bates make it in for “Harry’s Law” last year even though
nobody probably watched it. Close could be back for a farewell nomination.
There are tons of worthy newcomers to consider. Keri Russell
is the best chance for “The Americans” to crack the top categories, and I
actually wouldn’t be shocked if she pulled it off. Oscar pedigree could help
Vera Farmiga sneak in for “Bates Motel,” though this is A&E’s first shot at
campaigning an original series. Tatiana Maslany had the blogosphere ablaze with
her stunning multi-character act in “Orphan Black,” but it’s a sci-fi show on
BBC America. I can’t really think of a tougher Emmy sell, sadly (RIP Mary
McDonnell in “Battlestar Galactica”). Finally, former nominee Connie Britton
got great critical ink for “Nashville,” but the show turned into a small
ratings fiasco and got too soapy to be taken seriously as the season
progressed.
Outstanding
Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jonathan Banks, “Breaking Bad”
Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”
Rob James-Collier, “Downton Abbey”
Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland”
Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad”
Corey Stoll, “House of Cards”
Alternate: Nikolaj Costar-Waldau, “Game of Thrones”
This category is a hot mess, and I might as well not even
try. However, these six make decent sense to me. Reigning champion Aaron Paul
is almost certainly in, though I would be surprised if he managed to win again.
Ditto former winner Peter Dinklage, who should still be riding high on the wave
of popularity for “Game of Thrones” even though he didn’t have much to do this
season.
Mandy Patinkin seems like such an obvious nominee, but I
thought the same thing last year when he was snubbed. I’m going to count that
as a fluke and assume that “Homeland” has enough clout as the reigning Drama
Series champion to get more acting nominations this year. I’m also going to assume
that “Breaking Bad” now has the pull to regularly get two nominations in this
category. Now that Giancarlo Espositio is off the show, it’s probably time for
Jonathan Banks to finally get his Emmy nod.
“Downton Abbey” rather shockingly got two nominations in
this category last year, which is certainly not outside the realm of
possibility this season. I think Jim Carter and Brendan Coyle are probably out
(seriously, how did they BOTH make it last year??), but it would be foolish to
count out the entire male cast of “Downton Abbey.” I will refrain from
spoilers, but Rob James-Collier has a VERY Emmy-baity season. Last year proved
that it doesn’t really matter if no one knows his name. The “Downton” lobby is
strong. It truly is amazing how well this show manages to perform with the
Emmys basically on its own accord. Lord knows PBS doesn’t have the funds to
launch an Emmy campaign.
The last spot is contingent upon how a number of shows are
received by the voting body. Assuming that “House of Cards” is a hit, Corey
Stoll is probably in. He had killer material, plus a widely publicized story
that the showrunners greatly expanded his role because he was so good. He also
has a submission tape that could probably win him an Emmy if he were nominated.
I’m curious to see how “Game of Thrones does in the acting
categories. Dinklage was the only acting nominee for the first two seasons, probably
because the cast is so large and impressive that it’s hard to single anyone
out. If this is its Emmy-winning season, it will probably pick up a couple more
acting nods. Nikolaj Costar-Waldau had his showiest and most human season yet,
and he is certainly a strong spoiler here.
It feels odd not including anyone from “Mad Men.” Perennial
nominee John Slattery was snubbed last season for Jared Harris, who is
obviously no longer on the show. Slattery could certainly make it back in, but
I think it’s likelier that “Mad Men” has lost its Supporting Actor spot for
good. Vincent Kartheiser seemed to be on the verge of breaking in to this
category in the past, but he just didn’t have the material this year.
If “The Newsroom” breaks into the top category (or maybe
even if it doesn’t), expect to see Sam Waterston get a nomination here. If “Boardwalk
Empire” is stronger than I suspect, Bobby Cannavale could be recognized for his
great arc this season. If Emmy voters are feeling sentimental, Larry Hagman
could get a posthumous nomination for “Dallas.” Really, the possibilities here
are frighteningly endless.
Outstanding
Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife”
Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad”
Christina Hendricks, “Mad Men”
Elizabeth McGovern, “Downton Abbey”
Monica Potter, “Parenthood”
Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey”
Alternate: Michelle Fairley, “Game of Thrones”
Maggie Smith is obviously getting nominated for playing
herself, as always. Hell, I wouldn’t be shocked if she won again. It won’t be
as easy as it was last year. After she finally broke through to the nominations
last season, Anna Gunn is probably a lock. She definitely has the material to
win if she chooses her episode submissions wisely.
“Downton Abbey” also received two nominations in this
category last season, though I doubt Joanne Froggatt (again…..who??) manages to
come back. Elizabeth McGovern wisely submitted herself in the Supporting
category after missing out on a Lead Actress nom last year. Her season three
material was probably the best she’s gotten over the course of the series, so
she is looking quite good for a nomination.
Christina Hendricks is a default nominee at this point in “Mad
Men”’s Emmy run, but I’m worried for her. Fans bemoaned the lack of Joan this
season, and she didn’t have a showcase episode like “The Other Woman” to put
her in contention for the win. She will probably coast by on name recognition,
but I don’t think she’s safe.
“The Good Wife” lost all of its Supporting Actor nominations
last year, and I expect it to start losing Supporting Actress slots this year.
Christine Baranski and Archie Panjabi both made it for the show’s first three
seasons, but I think this is the year that one of them is dropped. Though
Panjabi has won an Emmy for this show, I think she’s out. Her arc this season
was critically panned, and then she was put on the backburner once it was
resolved. Baranski had a much better season, and she is a hard working veteran
who gets Emmy love whenever she’s on TV. I think she has another season in her
before she gets the boot as well. I actually wouldn’t be surprised by any
combination of one, both, or none of these women in this category.
I’m following the buzz on the last spot and giving it to
Monica Potter. “Parenthood” has received little Emmy attention in its four
seasons on the air, but it gets consistently strong reviews and manages to
survive every wave of cancellations because NBC doesn’t have anything better.
This year, Potter’s arc was impossibly Emmy-baity, and she received glowing
acclaim across the board. It helps that she’s NBC’s only real push in the Drama
categories, and they have money to throw behind her that niche cable networks
wouldn’t. She’s certainly made the media rounds and has come across as very
personable and sincere. She’s another candidate who can win if she pulls off
the nomination.
This is another category to watch for “Game of Thrones.”
Michelle Fairley and Emilia Clarke both had great seasons and should attract
some votes. On the “Mad Men” front, January Jones had her most substantial
material since season three – the last time she got an Emmy nomination. I wouldn’t
be surprised to see her make it, maybe even at the expense of Christina
Hendricks.
No comments:
Post a Comment