Figure Skating Night 1 Recap - Mother Russia Reigns while Jeremy Abbott Fails America

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Yesterday marked the first day of the inaugural Olympic figure skating team event – an event that has mystified even the hardest of hardcore skating fans, most of whom associate “team figure skating” with cheesy televised events from the 1990s starring Oksana Baiul and Nancy Kerrigan. Here is a decent breakdown of how scoring works, but the main idea is that each of the ten qualifying countries fields one skater or pair per discipline (men, ladies, pairs and ice dance) in the short program. The top five scoring countries across all four events will advance to the long program, which will combine with short program results to determine the medals.

Really, the team event is an excuse to get one of the Winter Olympics’ highest-rated sports on television for a few more nights. It also adds shades of camaraderie and a bit of nationalism to a traditionally individualistic sport. As a skeptic of this event coming into the Olympics, I must admit that I’ve loved the cute little country seating sections and seeing my favorite skaters cheer each other on in the normally tense and dramatic Kiss and Cry. The men’s and pairs’ short programs proved to be wildly entertaining and unpredictable. Here is a brief recap of how things went down:

1.    Russia – It was no surprise that reigning World Champion pair Tatiana Volosozhar and Maxim Trankov threw down a textbook perfect short program that put them in first place by over ten points. They even caused a minor stir in the Twitter-sphere with their Cinderella and Prince Charming-inspired look. However, few expected reigning Olympic silver medalist (and self-proclaimed platinum medalist) Evgeni Plushenko to finish second in a difficult men’s field after suffering countless injuries over the last four years. My jaw dropped when he landed a flawless quad toe-triple toe combo on what I can only assume is a bionic knee. From a presentation standpoint, Plushenko’s skate was the same old, same old – not a lot of speed, few transitions between technical elements, too much posing and flailing without purpose – but reputation inflation is nothing new in this sport. With strong ladies and ice dance teams, Russia should have few difficulties staying on top.

2.    Canada – As expected, Canada already looks to be Russia’s strongest challenger for the gold. Things did not go entirely according to plan yesterday, as three-time reigning World Champion Patrick Chan had a rough skate. His superior basic skating skills and interpretation gave him enough of a cushion to finish third (fans call his ability to score well no matter how he skates “Chanflation”), but this is not the start Chan had hoped for in his quest to become Canada’s first Olympic men’s gold medalist. The pairs’ event went better for Team Canada, as Meagan Duhamel and Eric Radford turned in their best short program of the season for a second place finish. These two make up for their relative weakness in artistry with insane technical difficulty. As the Olympics progress, take note of Meagan Duhamel’s extreme OCD as she frantically breaks down every performance in the Kiss and Cry and attempts to calculate her score.

3.    China – Team China definitely overperformed yesterday, especially in the absence of World Champion pair Pang Qing and Tong Jian, who are resting up for the main pairs’ event. Their replacements, Peng Cheng and Zhang Hao, are a classic “gorilla and flea” pair. He is a big, hulking 29 year-old, while she is a petite, limber teenager. The physical differences are jarring, but they make up for it with stunning overhead lifts and eye-popping throws. This is one performance I wish had made the main NBC broadcast, as they really were terrific in their Olympic debut. China also got a boost from teen phenom Yan Han, who landed a beautiful triple axel followed by a clean quad toe in an impressive Olympic debut. He still lacks the polish and maturity of the other top men, but he proved his competitive worth and established himself as a force to be reckoned with over the next Olympic cycle.

4.    Japan – In a star-making performance, Yuzuru Hanyu firmly took the lead in the men’s competition. Hanyu has had an army of screaming Japanese fangirls for the last few seasons, and if Twitter is any indication, he gained plenty of American fans last night. Japan’s lead in the team competition was to be short-lived, as their strengths are strictly limited to the individual events. Despite a noble effort from Narumi Takahashi and Ryuchi Kihara, they could not overcome their lack of technical difficulty and poor unison.

5.    Germany – With a bit of a messy contest that resulted in a three-way tie for fifth, the Germans wound up on top thanks to the tiebreaking procedure. They can probably thank an out-of-nowhere great skate from Peter Liebers – a man who tends to toil in the 15th-18th range of the World Championships. Liebers landed a quad toe and triple axel to a muzak arrangement of Coldplay while his teammates enthusiastically rang a cowbell from the sidelines. Former World Champion pair Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy sat this contest out to focus on the real pairs’ contest, but replacement husband-wife team Maylin and Daniel Wende saved the day with disco-ball inspired costumes and a Guns N’ Roses program.

6.    France – The always-amusing Florent Amodio served us some amazing man cleavage and all sorts of sass on his step sequence. One wonders if he could have landed that quad salchow if he spent more time training and less time acting. He still managed to land in the top five of the men’s field, but a near-meltdown from pair Vanessa James and Morgan Cipres put them in a difficult spot halfway through the short programs.

7.    United States – I don’t even know what to say. Jeremy Abbott is a wonderful skater, but he doesn’t know how to hold it together in major international competitions. I was thrilled he had the competition of his career and won U.S. Nationals in January, but deep down I knew he would collapse when it really mattered. His fall on the quad toe early in the program was not a total deal breaker, but that single axel showed a complete lack of fight that is unsettling to see from an Olympian. On the pairs’ front, Marissa Castelli and Simon Shnapir were always going to be the weak link for the U.S. in the team event. Despite a stumble on the side-by-side triple salchows, their fifth place finish was likely their ceiling anyway. Team USA will have to rely on their strong ladies and ice dancers to dig them out of this hole and put them in medal contention.

8.    Italy – Team Italy got off to a disastrous start when Paul Bonafacio Parkinson crashed on two of his jumping passes (while skating in Armani to a very Eurotrash-y arrangement of Beethoven) and finished dead last in the men’s event. Stefania Berton and Ondrej Hotarek had a clean skate to music from the Jim Carrey classic The Mask – a more common figure skating selection than you might think – to finish fourth in the pairs’ field. With strong contenders in the ladies’ and dance events, Italy still has a shot to move up and claim a spot in the coveted top five.

9.    Ukraine – The Ukrainians fall firmly in the “happy to be here” camp, as they lack top international contenders in any of the four disciplines. Both of their entrants on day one skated respectably, but suffered from a lack of difficulty. At least they aren’t last!

10.  Great Britain – Once a skating powerhouse, Team Britain also came into this competition without much of a chance at advancing to the long program. Matthew Parr only attempted a double axel in the short program, leading some of the cattier members of the skating community (i.e., yours truly) to label him a “ladies’ skater.” Stacey Kemp and David King are an internationally ranked pair with World Championship experience, but they made major mistakes on their side-by-side double axels and throw triple flip, thus landing them in last place. The Brits at least deserve a prize for sportsmanship, as they all showed admirable enthusiasm in the Kiss and Cry throughout the event.

The figure skating team event will continue on Saturday with the ladies’ and ice dance short programs, followed by the pairs’ long program. What did you think of figure skating’s newest competition? Will you join me in lighting a candle and saying a little prayer for Team USA?

Olympic Preview: ICE DANCE

Bow down, b*tches.

Ice dance has long been the most arcane of the figure skating disciplines with its complicated rules and results that don’t often correlate to what happens in competition. Shady backroom wheeling and dealing is a harsh reality of figure skating, but there is rarely a major figure skating scandal that does not somehow involve ice dance. Despite (or because of) the drama, ice dance is probably my favorite skating discipline these days. The field is deep, and the level of performance at major competitions is always high. 

Meryl Davis and Charlie White have emerged from this season as the Olympic gold medal favorites. They won the Grand Prix Final (although just barely), and gave new meaning to the phrase “nationals inflation” when they achieved a perfect program components score in the free dance at U.S. Nationals. The latest version of “Scheherazade” has some nice choreographic embellishments that should silence the haters who contend the program is too cold. Haters be damned, they have absolutely nailed their programs in every outing this year. Meryl and Charlie are looking sharp, well-trained, and ready to go. If they pull off the gold, they’ll be the first ever U.S. ice dance team to do so. 

 

Their main competition will still come from Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, the reigning Olympic champions. Tessa and Scott gave the Americans a run for their money at the Grand Prix Final, but they came up short in the end. The Canadian judges did their best to hyper-inflate their scores at Nationals, though Tessa botched the twizzles in the free dance. It’s no secret that the Americans have thoroughly surpassed their training mates technically, though many in the skating world still prefer Tessa and Scott’s more classic ballroom style.

The battle for gold in ice dance has been close and contentious for the past four years. These two teams may see each other for eight hours daily, but they are most certainly not friends. The involvement of ice dance powerbroker Marina Zoueva only complicates matters. It is rare for the top two teams in the world to train under the same coach, and many fans speculate that Marina heavily influences their outcomes. As the Canadians already have an Olympic gold, it’s not difficult to imagine Marina sitting firmly in the American camp. Meryl and Charlie have the momentum at this point, and in my opinion they also have the better programs. The Canadians often struggle when they sense they are trailing the Americans, but the burden is on them to prove their worth and defend their title.

The battle for bronze is still close and unclear. The favorites are probably still Ekaterina Bobrova and Dmitri Soloviev because I can’t imagine the Russian skating federation going empty-handed in ice dance. Ekaterina and Dmitri are not beloved by their federation, but the powers that be have accepted that they are Mother Russia’s best option in this field. Note that they were consistently in the 6-8 range early in this Olympic cycle before grabbing the bronze at last year’s World Championships. That kind of jump is rare in the world of ice dance, and it is a sign of strong political maneuvering. The jump in ranking was preceded by their sudden move to politically powerful coach Sasha Zhulin. Suddenly we hear stories about Ekaterina’s improved posture and the couple’s superior artistry, though the skating has not changed over the last three years.

The technical panels have been kind to Ekaterina and Dmitri in a season where many top teams have struggled to maximize their levels on the short dance compulsory pattern. However, their bizarre “dying bird” free dance has given them trouble, with mistakes costing them the gold at Cup of China and the bronze in the Grand Prix Final. Despite a decisive win at Russian Nationals, the powers that be pressured Ekaterina and Dmitri to drop the free dance and revert back to last year’s more successful but equally bad “insane asylum” program. They sat out the European Championships, so no one is sure how they’re looking. I have no doubt that the pieces are in place for them to win bronze if they deliver. The question will be whether or not they are obviously sloppy in the free dance.

The biggest hurdle for the Russians will likely be the veteran French team of Nathalie Pechalat and Fabian Bourzat. The French skating federation is a political force to be reckoned with, and they are not giving up their one chance at an Olympic medal this year without a fight.  After a disappointing 2013 season, Nathalie and Fabian got their own Russian powerbroker coach in Igor Shpiliband (despite their vocal protests over leaving their old team). Like the Russians, they skipped the European Championships, so the last impression international judges have of them is their strong bronze medal-winning performance in the Grand Prix Final. This under-the-radar approach is likely wise given both skaters’ propensity to injury. Nathalie and Fabian’s “Little Prince” free dance has been well-received throughout the season, but their short dance technical scores remain a problem. They need to focus on delivering a sharp and clean short dance to make sure they are in striking distance to nab the bronze in the free dance. 

In the absence of the Russian and French favorites, the prestigious European Championship gold went to Anna Cappellini and Luca Lanotte. This was a big boost to the top Italian team after they finished a devastating sixth place in the Grand Prix Final. Anna and Luca have progressed from eighth to sixth to fourth over the last three World Championships, and they have their sights set on an Olympic medal. The chances are slim, but entering the Olympics as the European Champions is good for their momentum. I’ve said on this blog before that their programs don’t do them any favors. They have a nice, graceful style, but their “Barber of Seville” free dance doesn’t pack much of a punch. It doesn’t help that they share coach Igor Shpiliband with the French team, and it’s clear where his political priorities are. Anna and Luca have to count on skating clean and hoping that the Russians and French falter. Otherwise, they’re looking at a fifth place finish at best. 

If the judges had their way, the European Championships would have gone to second-ranked Russians Elena Ilinykh and Nikita Katsalapov. Elena and Nikita are everything you want in an ice dance team: gorgeous line and extension, impressive speed and ice coverage, and engaging interpretive ability. It doesn’t hurt that they’re both model hot. Unfortunately, they are probably the laziest top dance team in recent memory. This became the subject of a major falling out with their former coach, Sasha Zhulin, before he took on their top domestic rivals instead. Their lack of proper preparation shows up when they make major errors on things like pair spins and step sequences……or just on choreographic moves at the end of the program. They can usually manage one good contest per year, which they seem to have already accomplished at Trophee Eric Bompard, where they unexpectedly beat the top French team. They followed this up by falling three times at Russian Nationals and melting down on their free dance twizzle sequence at the European Championships. Their program components score at Europeans showed that the judges were ready to hand them the gold, but Elena and Nikita practically gave it away to the Italians. No one knows what to expect in Sochi. If they deliver, they could be a threat for the podium. If not, they could end up in ninth place like they were at last year’s World Championships. They remain one of the most frustratingly talented but difficult teams in dance, but that’s why we love them.

The only non-European team in the hunt for bronze is Canada’s Kaitlyn Weaver and Andrew Poje. Even still, it’s kind of just a courtesy to call them contenders, as there is almost no way that there will be a North American sweep of the podium. Still, Kaitlyn and Andrew have been in the top five in the last three World Championships, and their “Maria de Buenos Aires” free dance is among the strongest of the year. Unfortunately, it seems that the international technical panels this season have found a way to hold them down no matter what. They were noticeably low-balled in the short dance at Rostelecom Cup and in the free dance in the Grand Prix Final. It will take a miracle to get them on the Olympic podium, and coach Angelika Krylova likely knows that. She was also on the losing side of some bad political deals in her time as an elite ice dancer. Kaitlyn and Andrew should take this as a learning experience, as they will likely emerge as major contenders after Sochi. 

The other two American teams will likely round out the top nine. If either team can break through the group of seven I’ve mentioned, it is Madison Chock and Evan Bates. After a shaky Grand Prix season, the figure skating community was stunned with how impressive they looked at U.S. Nationals. For a team that tends to struggle technically, they have clearly spent time meticulously tweaking their elements to maximize levels. Nationals also marked the first time I felt their skating matched the passion and intensity of their “Les Miserables” musical selections in the free dance. The pair is still all about Madison’s star quality while Evan drags her around through the difficult technical elements. Still, they are engaging on the ice and have a nice, polished look. It will be difficult for them to improve on their seventh place finish from last year’s World Championships (they are political priority number three for Igor Shpiliband after the French and Italians), but I won’t be surprised if they match it. 

Maia and Alex Shibutani failed to gain ground on their domestic rivals, and they seem unlikely to climb back up the international standings. They have toiled in eighth place hell after their fluke bronze at the 2011 World Championships, and they may find themselves even lower this year. They’re still among the stronger top dance teams technically, but their sibling awkwardness makes it easy for the judges to kill them in program components. They wisely replaced their dreary “Ben” arrangement from the Michael Jackson free dance with “Man in the Mirror,” but the entire program still seems very slapped together. Michael Jackson is difficult to pull off in competitive ice dance, and his choreography looks especially wrong on these two. Maia and Alex may fare better in the future after Marina Zoueva moves on from Davis/White and Virtue/Moir and can actually spend time on them.

Olympic Preview: The Ladiezzzz

Gurl no! Beware the Sport Illustrated curse!

Ever since Sonja Henie left the competitive arena and become one of the highest paid stars of 1930s Hollywood, ladies’ figure skating has been the premier glamor sport of the Olympics. It’s a sport that never fails to deliver on drama, triumphs, bitter defeats, and fashion disasters that will dominate the pop culture landscape for most of the next month. The Olympic ladies’ skating competition is also one of the most high-stakes events in all of amateur sports. A gold medal can be a springboard for international fame and fortune. Look no further than Peggy Fleming, Dorothy Hamill, Katarina Witt, Oksana Baiul, and Yuna Kim. You don’t always need the gold to profit from the sport if the circumstances are right (Nancy Kerrigan, Michelle Kwan), but just ask Linda Fratianne and Rosalyn Sumners where their Olympic silver medals got them in life.

The ladies’ event in Sochi feels especially exciting thanks to the presence of Yuna Kim – the first ladies’ gold medalist to attempt to defend her Olympic title since Katarina Witt in 1988. Yuna is a bona fide superstar in South Korea. She is the only competitive skater who can sell out arenas on just her name. Everyone in the skating world knows that they need to kiss up to Queen Yuna if they want to make any money from show skating. She endorses everything from cars to beer, she is an occasional Kpop star and author, and she had a key role in Pyeongchang’s successful bid to host the 2018 Winter Olympics.  Her star power brings a level of energy to ladies’ skating that has been missing since the height of the Michelle Kwan era.

Yuna missed the Grand Prix season thanks to a “foot injury” and instead opted to debut her Olympic programs at a tiny competition in Croatia away from media scrutiny. She’s working on a condensed preparation timeline compared to the other top ladies, but she is probably the most physically gifted athlete in the history of this sport. Yuna’s performance at Korean Nationals showed that she had the jumps back, but she’s missing her trademark speed and attack. She seemed to be going through the motions and just focusing on executing the technical content. Still, I have no doubt that Yuna Kim will show up to Sochi ready to go. For a skater who has suffered from burnout in the past, it is important for her to peak at the right time, and she is clearly saving her best for the performance that matters. Although Yuna has yet to face any of her competitors head to head, she has to be considered the gold medal favorite. She has a killer instinct and the ability to deliver under pressure.

In a repeat of Vancouver, Yuna’s closest competitor will again be Japanese star Mao Asada. Mao and Yuna have been pitted against each other since their days in the junior ranks, and their rivalry has dominated the figure skating fan community for much of the past eight years. Mao’s silver medal in Vancouver was a bitter disappointment for the powerful Japanese skating federation, and pressure is high for her to deliver in Sochi. She dominated the Grand Prix circuit with decisive wins at Skate America and NHK Trophy followed by a gold medal performance on home ice at the Grand Prix Final.  However, a disastrous performance at Japanese Nationals gave her a bronze medal that many felt was generous.

Mao heads into the Olympics with the most difficult technical content of the ladies’ field on paper. She is the only ladies’ skater with a triple axel, and she has planned to perform the jump once in the short program and twice in the long program. Her game plan is risky, and it’s unclear if it will pay off. Mao has a history of underrotations and improper jump technique, so the technical panel tends to especially scrutinize her performances. Even on a day when she lands everything she plans, she loses ground to Yuna Kim on execution. Mao has matured significantly over the years and is one of the most artistic competitive ladies’ skaters. Still, she rarely beats Yuna in program components. Yuna’s comeback put a serious damper on Mao’s quest for an Olympic gold. Mao-chan will have to deliver like she never has before and pray that Yuna falls a few times.

There will be plenty of outside challengers for an Olympic medal. If anyone can really upset and finish second or higher, it is Russian teen phenom Julia Lipnitskaia. The jump from junior to senior competition is often difficult, and it typically takes a year or two to build reputation and get program component scores that can compete with the top international skaters. Julia has completely cut the line and seems to gearing up for a Tara Lipinski moment on home ice in Sochi. She won both of her Grand Prix events and took the silver medal in the Grand Prix Final. She then won the European Championships with a higher long program score than Mao Asada has received in her entire career. Though Julia’s speed and ice coverage are weak compared to the older top ladies and her jumps can be small and kind of scary, international judges don’t seem to care. She is a strong competitor and has used her rather sullen demeanor to create the most effective “Schindler’s List” program I can remember. I expect her to ride her fabulous spins and amazing flexibility to the Olympic podium.

Still, the situation with the Russian ladies is a bit puzzling, as the Russian federation seems hell-bent on getting Adelina Sotnikova an Olympic medal. It is difficult to interpret her victory over Julia Lipnitskaia at Russian Nationals. Adelina has powerful jumps, but her overall packaging is straight out of my worst Irina Slutskaya nightmares. The polish and attention to detail simple aren’t there. Julia should really beat Adelina head-to-head every time they both skate well, but that is not always the case. Adelina also defeated Julia in the short program at the Grand Prix Final and the European Championships, but she has a tendency to self-destruct in the long program. It is certainly not out of the question for two Russian ladies to land on the Olympic podium. If Adelina puts together two clean programs in Sochi, who knows what will happen.

The American ladies’ prospects in Sochi look much brighter than they did in Vancouver. We no longer have to pretend that Rachael Flatt is an acceptable National Champion. Still, our girls have to contend with the deepest Olympic ladies’ field in recent memory. Gracie Gold fulfilled every marketer’s dream by decisively winning U.S. Nationals. Now she is unavoidable in NBC Olympic preview pieces and is slapped across the cover of the Sports Illustrated Olympic issue. Gracie’s move to Frank Carroll proved to be wise, as he has defied the odds and turned her into a lady. She still has some of the best jumps and spins in the world, but now she holds out her movements and attempts to interpret the music.

It’s tough to know where Gracie’s ceiling is in Sochi. She is a different skater from the one we saw struggling on the Grand Prix. If she’s on, her technical marks should be near the top of the field. The judges can still bury her in the program components score if they want to. Gracie will not be given the benefit of the doubt in Sochi. She needs to have the two skates of her life and hope for a few mistakes from her competitors. An individual medal is certainly a possibility, and it would turn her into the star that U.S. Figure Skating desperately needs.

Where does that leave Ashley Wagner?  What started as a strong season with a victory at Trophee Eric Bompard and a bronze medal in the Grand Prix Final turned into a nightmare with a fourth place finish at U.S. Nationals. Suddenly U.S. Lady Number One became the ugly stepsister of the Olympic team when she was selected at the expense of fan favorite Mirai Nagasu after her best competition since the 2010 Olympics. Ashley realized her image is in need of some rehab after the Nationals controversy, so she dropped her “Romeo & Juliet” free skate in favor of last year’s much more popular “Samson & Delilah.”

Ashley is a solid, complete skater who always scores well internationally. Her problem is that there’s nothing truly remarkable about her skating. Even with strong performances at the last two World Championships, she finished fourth and fifth. If she lands all the jumps, she won’t match the other top ladies on spins and footwork. Her programs are well-choreographed, and she has really improved her interpretation, but she will never get the program components scores of a Yuna Kim or a Mao Asada.  She has tried to up the ante technically by going for a triple flip+triple toe combo in both programs, but she made an error on the element both times at Nationals. Ashley skates conservatively when she’s nervous, so I can see her watering down her content when the pressure is on. Despite what NBC wants us to believe, the Olympic podium has always been an uphill battle for Ashley Wagner, and I am not optimistic about her chances after a big blow to her confidence at Nationals. I hope I am wrong.

The surprise member of the U.S. Olympic Team is 15-year-old Polina Edmunds, who will be making her senior international debut in Sochi. Polina skated well at Nationals, but I was a bit baffled by her scores. She is a fine technician, but her skating is still very junior-ish. There is a big maturity gap between her and the other top American ladies that was not reflected in the program components scores. Rest assured that the gap will be reflected at the Olympics. International judges are not familiar with this girl, and they will not likely do her any favors in her first outing. Polina will have a difficult time finishing in the top 10 at in Sochi, though her strong technical content could keep her afloat if the top ladies falter. The girl is a feisty competitor who knows how to seize the moment.

The beneficiary of Mao Asada’s dismal performance at Japanese Nationals was Akiko Suzuki, a longtime fan favorite whose harrowing life story is Lifetime movie of the week material. Akiko had the skate of her career at Nationals and certainly turned some heads after most had written her off when she failed to make the Grand Prix Final. Akiko has long had the talent to be an Olympic medalist, but she tends to wilt under pressure. I hope her National title will be the boost she needs to throw down two clean skates in Sochi. She is a wonderfully musical skater who has the potential to really create a moment for herself in Sochi with her memorable “Phantom of the Opera” long program. Look for her to finish high in the standings if she delivers.

Japanese Nationals were also kind to Kanako Murakami after a she failed to medal at either of her Grand Prix events. She kept the momentum going with a superb showing at the Four Continents Championships, where she posted the third-highest long program score of the season after Julia Lipnitskaia and Mao Asada. Kanako is not an appealing skater or someone international judges necessarily want on the Olympic podium. However, much like a Romanian gymnast, you know she is going to stay on her feet when it counts. She was in the top five at the last two World Championships despite early season struggles and programs nobody really cared for. I will not be surprised to see her near the Olympic podium, especially if the long program is a splat-fest. Prepare yourselves for the least-Jewish performance to the music of Yentl you will ever see.

And then there is the odd case of Carolina Kostner. The Italian ice queen is a favorite of skating purists thanks to her deep edges, effortless speed, and engaging on-ice presence. Carolina has been a judge favorite over the last four years, as evidenced by her silver medal at last year’s World Championships despite major mistakes in both programs. However, her Olympic podium chances are in doubt after a disappointing Grand Prix season. After missing the Grand Prix Final, Carolina scrapped both of her programs and returned with a gorgeous new short program to Schubert’s “Ave Maria” and a reprise of last year’s sultry free skate to Ravel’s “Bolero.” She came away with a bronze medal from the European Championships, where not even her strong program components scores could keep her ahead of the Russian wunderkinds. Carolina should still be considered a contender for the podium in Sochi, but it’s clear that the international judges will no longer hold he up when she doesn’t skate well. The Olympics have never been a good event for Carolina Kostner, and it will be an uphill battle for her to end her impressive career on a high note. Carolina is just not a skater who is going to put together two clean programs in the same event.

I’ve probably mentioned all the feasible medal contenders, though there are a few ladies who have the potential for a strong finish (8^th or higher) if the stars align. Kaetlyn Osmond has struggled with injury all year, but she looked very sharp and ready to go at Canadian Nationals. Kaetlyn skates with reckless abandon, and her kamikaze-style jump entry is always a white-knuckle experience to watch. Still, she is a charismatic and talented skater who can knock some of the other top contenders out of the coveted top six group with a strong short program. China’s Li Zijun was also a question mark for much of the season due to injury, but her strong showing at the Four Continents Championships show that she is on the right track and could be a spoiler in Sochi. She has a delicate, graceful style that reminds one of a young Chen Lu, and she could be contending for World titles in the next couple of seasons. And then there is one of my personal favorites, Valentina Marchei, who will not likely be contending for the top six. However, she will certainly be serving serious face and attitude, and we should all root for her to make the top ten.

2014 Oscar Nominations Predictions Manifesto

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Coming soon to a red carpet near you...

Best Picture

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

The Wolf of Wall Street

Between 0 and 2 of:

Inside Llewyn Davis

Saving Mr. Banks

As a refresher, we are still operating under the open-ended Best Picture nominee system. There will be at least five nominees, but no more than ten. Only the films that command more than 5% of the vote for Best Picture will make the cut. This is a system that favors passion over consensus. The movies that make it here have to be loved, not just liked.

By most accounts, the front-runner of the moment is 12 Years a Slave. According to industry buzz, this is the movie that does for slavery what Schindler’s List did for the Holocaust. You’d have to be a heartless bastard not to vote for it. 12 Years a Slave is the most critically acclaimed English language film of the last several years, and it has seemed like an inevitable Oscar sweeper since the Toronto film fest in September. Its closest competitor is probably sleek, glossy big studio crime drama American Hustle. Hot on the heels of The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell can do no wrong these days. He seems like a filmmaker who is bound to direct a Best Picture winner sooner rather than later. This time, he’s pulled out all the stops with a starry cast full of Oscar winners and nominees and a ‘70s aesthetic that has drawn comparisons to classic Scorsese. This is already proving to be Russell’s biggest box office hit yet. Both films are compelling foils to each other, and this could prove to be a close and entertaining race for the top prize.

The other seeming possibility for the Best Picture win is Gravity, which is probably second to 12 Years a Slave in terms of critical acclaim and has become a bona fide international box office smash. This rare intersection of astronomical critical and commercial success might be impossible to beat at the Oscars if this weren’t a sci-fi film. As it stands, this film should play extraordinarily well with the Academy’s technical branches, and executive types love to award big studio blockbusters that prove Hollywood is not entirely creatively bankrupt. Among the other big studio prestige dramas, ripped-from-the-headlines docudrama Captain Phillips is the only one I’d consider a lock for a Best Picture nomination. It’s a movie that people seem to respect more than love, but money talks, and the Academy pays attention when adult-oriented dramas break $100 million at the domestic box office.

We’re bound to see a few smaller critical darlings in the mix. The strongest of these is Nebraska, Alexander Payne’s homage to Americana for people who have never lived outside Los Angeles.  Oscar pundits were quick to write this one off after it was coolly received at Cannes, but I knew the American critics would come to bat for it. Alexander Payne is the master of Baby Boomer angst, and it seems like he’s hit a nerve with the Academy’s key demographic yet again. I also think there’s a spot for Her. Spike Jonze’s futuristic love story will likely not play well to the geriatric core of the Academy – I don’t know how voters who couldn’t stomach gay cowboys in Brokeback Mountain will respond to a man falling in love with his operating system. However, Her will likely be a beneficiary of the Academy’s push to invite young, hip new members to bring the Oscars into the 21^st century. This is a film that falls firmly into the Tree of Life/Beasts of the Southern Wild camp of artsy passion picks that get nominations thanks to the new Best Picture rules.

Lest things get too artsy, we need to consider what else is going to play well to the middlebrow bread-and-butter of the Academy. Dallas Buyers Club, the least-gay film ever made about the AIDS epidemic, will likely fit the bill. The Matthew McConaughey-headlined tearjerker opened to surprisingly good reviews and a solid box office gross for its budget. The film has had a strong showing with the industry guild awards, and its scenery chewing histrionics should endear it to the Academy’s sizable actors branch. This is exactly the kind of whitewashed, Crash-esque message movie that will always find support in the Academy.

Things get dicey from here. The Wolf of Wall Street is a slam-dunk Best Picture nominee on paper: it’s a big-budget December studio release directed by Martin Scorsese and starring Leonardo DiCaprio. However, after watching Leo DiCaprio snort cocaine out of a hooker’s naughty bits, one has to wonder, “Is this really an Oscar movie?” Scorsese’s wild chronicle of 1980s Wall Street excess is proving to be divisive among critics and audiences. An Academy member allegedly screamed, “You should be ashamed of yourself!” to Scorsese himself at a recent screening. Still, the movie has passionate fans, and there are Scorsese acolytes in the Academy who will vote for anything he puts out.

While the expanded Best Picture field has recently allowed nominations for art-house fare like The Tree of Life and Amour, it also gave us nominations for The Blind Side and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. There will always be an audience for sentimental claptrap in the Academy. This year, that contingent of voters will likely rally behind Saving Mr. Banks. Critics were mixed on the film, and it has an army of naysayers who are calling it Disney propaganda. However, it is impossible to deny that the movie is a crowdpleaser. Executive types in the Academy are no doubt thrilled by the chronicle of a studio mogul putting a stubborn artist in her place and producing a mega-hit. Other voters are probably happy to have an Oscar movie they can watch with the whole family in a year full of racy contenders like American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street. Ultimately, I think if this film may be too saccharine by even Academy standards. Saving Mr. Banks has a crowded field to contend with, but don’t be surprised to see it crack the Best Picture lineup.

The other strong contender is another critical darling passion pick: Inside Llewyn Davis. This film has extra Oscar prestige thanks to the venerated Coen brothers at the helm. After No Country for Old Men, the Coens can suddenly do no wrong by the Academy. Even little-loved A Serious Man pulled off a Best Picture nomination. Buzz for Inside Llewyn Davis is oddly quiet for a film that has received superlative reviews since Cannes. It did well with the critics’ awards and the Golden Globes, but the industry guild awards have ignored it. It lacks the A-list cast and weighty subject matter of other Best Picture contenders, but I imagine there are enough Coen die-hards in the Academy to push this to a nomination. However, it may end up being a bit too small for the top category.

It’s time for some truth telling. This was not a good year for Harvey Weinstein. After his back-to-back Best Picture wins for The King’s Speech and The Artist, he by all accounts owned the Academy. He has a full slate of Academy-friendly fare as usual, but none of it has made much of an impact this awards season. Still, I would not be shocked if he placed something in this expanded Best Picture field. The likeliest bet is the sweeping, star-studded civil rights epic The Butler, which played to $100 million business over the summer. Reviews were mixed, but this was never going to be a critics’ film. The Butler provides a safer, more uplifting socially conscious alternative to the brutality of 12 Years a Slave. At the same time, it might even be too sentimental and calculated for its own good, as even fairly middle-brow groups like the Producers Guild have given it the cold shoulder.

Harvey also has Fruitvale Station for Academy voters who prefer more substance to their socially conscious fare. The Sundance breakout hit seemed destined to join the ranks of Precious and Winter’s Bone, especially after the George Zimmerman trial gave the film cultural relevance money can’t buy. Despite unanimous critical acclaim, it’s been oddly absent from the end-of-year awards hoopla. August: Osage County should be Harvey’s easiest Best Picture nominee in theory – it’s an adaptation of a Pulitzer-winning play starring Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, and a slew of other respected thespians trying to out-Oscar bait each other. The problem is that nobody likes it very much, but maybe the Meryl Streep stans in the Academy will come through for it. His other Oscar pony, Judi Dench vehicle Philomena, is a crowd-pleaser and a BAFTA and Golden Globe nominee for Best Picture. But is that a movie that people are really going to mark down as their #1 of the year? This year may just be a wash for the Oscar Svengali, but I wouldn’t count any of these out as potential Best Picture nominees.

There are still a few fringe contenders to highlight. Ron Howard’s Formula One drama Rush is precisely the type of well-crafted, easily digestible big studio fare that tends to score with the Academy. It did well with the Golden Globes and made money overseas, but it still has “flop” stigma attached to it thanks to its disappointing domestic box office performance. It will likely get a handful of nominations, but Best Picture may be a reach. Blue Jasmine probably shouldn’t be counted out. A critically acclaimed, commercially successful Woody Allen film with the Best Actress frontrunner in the title role makes perfect sense as a Best Picture nominee. My problem again is still: where are the #1 votes going to come from? People like it, but is this anyone’s favorite film of 2013?

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Spike Jonze, Her

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

David O. Russell, American Hustle

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Alt: Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips

Last year reminded us that the directors branch is a bit insular and idiosyncratic. Not even the director of the Best Picture frontrunner is safe. This year, that would be Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave. McQueen is primarily known as a visual artist, and his first two feature films – Hunger and Shame – were adored in film snob circles but decidedly not up the Academy’s alley. In his first season playing the awards game, McQueen has turned some heads with his ornery, dismissive attitude. This might actually be an asset a year after Ben Affleck likely turned his fellow directors off by trying too hard. Regardless of his personality, McQueen’s work seems undeniable. If he wins the Oscar, he will be the first black filmmaker man to win Best Director.

His likeliest competitor is Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity. After Children of Men, he seemed destined to break into the pantheon of the greats. With that kind of pressure, it’s no wonder it took him seven years to release his follow-up. In the end, Gravity proved to be worth the wait and the exorbitant price tag. Last year, we saw the most technically demanding and visually involving film take home the Best Director statuette. Gravity is that film this year. I can also see David O. Russell winning if American Hustle becomes the Best Picture frontrunner. He’s the consummate actor’s director these days, and American Hustle has more stylistic flair than his recent films.

The race looks more uncertain after that. It’s tough to imagine Martin Scorsese missing out. The Wolf of Wall Street has more vehement detractors than any other movie in the Oscar race, but you can usually count on the directors branch to come through for Scorsese. Even the uber-controversial The Last Temptation of Christ got Marty a nomination from his peers when every other branch of the Academy ignored it. He is basically revered as a god among his fellow directors. He got no love from the critics’ groups and the Golden Globes, but his nominations from the Directors Guild and BAFTA are likely telling. It’s been a long time since the directors branch snubbed Marty when he was a legitimate contender. I'm going out on a limb for the last spot and giving it to Spike Jonze. Her is exactly the kind of visually compelling auteurist piece that typically plays well with the directors branch. Spike Jonze is already a highly respected Oscar nominee who other directors love so much that they cast him in their movies (see: his bit part in The Wolf of Wall Street). His lack of attention from other mainstream awards groups gives me pause, but then again the directors branch of the Academy has always been the likeliest group to recognize him.

There are a few strong spoilers here. Paul Greengrass seems like a safe bet on paper for Captain Phillips. He’s a respected previous nominee with a huge box office hit. Any director will tell you that shooting an entire movie on water is kind of insane, so he will likely get degree-of-difficulty points. Greengrass has been nominated by just about every group that matters, but how much passion is there for the film itself? If Captain Phillips underperforms on Oscar morning, this will likely be the first category it misses. Alexander Payne would make sense as a nominee for Nebraska. His last two films scored with the directors branch, and he’s gotten attention for taking stylistic risks in his latest effort. Despite his Golden Globe nomination, Nebraska feels much smaller in scope and cultural impact than Sideways or The Descendants. It doesn’t help that those two films were big hits while Nebraska is struggling to hit the $10 million mark in limited release hell. Still, he has fans who could push him into the final five.

It’s tough to imagine anyone else getting nominated, though this year is full of Best Picture contenders from Oscar nominees and winners. If there is a complete out-of-left-field nominee, it will likely be for Oscar darlings the Coen brothers for Inside Llewyn Davis or Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine. Harvey Weinstein tried to turn 24 year-old USC film school grad Ryan Coogler into this year’s rookie contender for Fruitvale Station (in the mold of last year’s head-scratching nod for Beasts of the Southern Wild’s Benh Zeitlin), but I just don’t think anyone cares about that film.

Best Actor

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Alt: Christian Bale, American Hustle

This is perhaps the most hotly-contested of any of the above-the-line races because, surprise surprise, there were a lot of great roles for men in movies this year.  Leading the pack is Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave. Ejiofor is one of those actors who have been in the industry forever but rarely get any recognition (imagine my shock when I realized he was in Love, Actually during this year’s annual Christmas viewing). He hit the jackpot with his big Oscar bait breakout performance. His character is almost impossibly sympathetic, and every scene is an Oscar clip. He is very much in it to win it, especially if 12 Years a Slave takes the top prize.

The race to the top won’t be easy for Ejiofor. Matthew McConaughey completed his transformation from rom com star to Serious Actor when he lost 40 pounds to play a dying AIDS patient in Dallas Buyers Club. The stunt alone would put him on the awards season radar, but he sealed the deal by proving once and for all that he could actually act. Couple that with his acclaimed supporting turns this year in Mud and The Wolf of Wall Street and we have the ingredients for a strong Oscar contender. One also has to seriously pay attention when a star pushes his/her film to a Best Picture nomination that probably wouldn’t have made it without them (see also: Ray, The Blind Side). The other contender for the win is Bruce Dern for Nebraska. It’s been 40 years since Dern was up for an Oscar, and he is not letting anyone forget it. No actor has worked the campaign circuit harder this year. The performance isn’t all that showy, but his presence in the awards race is a nostalgic reminder of the “good old days” for the older set in the Academy. He’s already taken home a few big critics’ prizes, and it’s not difficult to imagine his winning streak continuing through SAG and the Oscars.

Though he won’t win, it is difficult to imagine Tom Hanks missing a nomination for Captain Phillips. The film marked his triumphant return to Oscar bait and earned him some of the best reviews of his career. Hanks is still one of the most popular and beloved people in Hollywood, and the Academy will be happy to welcome him back. The last spot is a bit of a crapshoot. I am giving it to Leonardo DiCaprio, whose film is all anyone can talk about these days. Poor Leo has had pretty lousy luck with the Academy lately. J. Edgar and Django Unchained were supposed to win him that elusive Oscar, but he didn’t even get nominated. This time, he is back with Martin Scorsese and earned career-best raves from every critic who matters. Even the film’s most vocal haters admit that his work is staggering. SAG snubbed him, but he got in with the Golden Globes and BAFTA. Leo has always been seen in the industry as a bit overeager for recognition, but he has gone into overdrive this year. Along with appearing on every talk show on the air, he allegedly wrote letters to every member of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association making the case for his Golden Globe-worthiness.  His history makes me wary, but I think there will be enough passion for his performance to push him in.

Leo’s biggest problem is another A-lister starring in a commercially successful Best Picture contender. Christian Bale can’t seem to be bothered to campaign this year, but his name keeps showing up in discussions about the Oscar race. Like Leo, Bale is a SAG snubee with recognition from the Globes and BAFTA. Unlike Leo, he’s not even getting best-in-show reviews, much less career-best notices. At the same time, American Hustle is much more beloved in the industry than The Wolf of Wall Street is. David O. Russell’s last film managed an acting nomination in every category, and I can see the actors branch going all in for his ensemble again. If Bale gets in, then American Hustle is probably our Best Picture winner.

Then there is the curious case of Robert Redford in All Is Lost. When the film premiered at Cannes, Oscar pundits declared the Best Actor race over. No one could beat a living legend like Redford giving a spellbinding silent performance that took up every second of his film. His win from the New York Film Critics’ Circle seemed to be the start of his steamroll through awards season. Then he was ignored by SAG and BAFTA. It begs a serious question: is anyone watching this movie? The paltry box office gross would suggest: no. Still, he poses a strong chance to upset. He is a potential passion pick who benefits from the Academy’s preferential balloting system. I mean, who doesn’t love Robert Redford?

Harvey Weinstein’s best chance here is Forest Whitaker for The Butler. He got a SAG nomination, but he doesn’t have a ton of buzz for someone who is really working the circuit. Ultimately, the performance is too quiet to stand out in a field of flashy contenders, especially since his movie is likely not getting a Best Picture nomination. Joaquin Phoenix is headlining a likely Best Picture nominee in Her. After Harvey dragged him kicking and screaming through last year’s awards circuit, he’s stayed completely out of the dog and pony show this time. I don’t think he’s much of a contender despite his great reviews. On the extreme outskirts, we have buzzy breakout performances like Oscar Isaac in Inside Llewyn Davis and Michael B. Jordan in Fruitvale Station who would likely fare better in a less crowded year.

Best Actress

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Alt: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Nailing down this category is like pulling teeth. All six top contenders make sense, but someone has to miss. Cate Blanchett is probably our winner here after nearly sweeping every critics’ award for Blue Jasmine. Even this self-proclaimed Blanchett hater admits that she is stellar in that film, and Hollywood is eager to welcome her back after her extended hiatus to focus on theater. We’ve all known that her second Oscar win was inevitable, so let’s go ahead and get it over with.

Sandra Bullock got career-best raves for Gravity and proved once more that she is one of the few reliable box office draws left in Hollywood. She’s in, and she would be a contender for the win had she not just won for The Blind Side. I don’t foresee two-time Academy Award winner Sandra Bullock happening. Judi Dench, like the grandest of British dames always do, received glowing reviews for playing herself in Philomena and will likely be rewarded with yet another pointless Oscar nomination. Harvey Weinstein has done an excellent job of reminding us that she’s going blind and may never make a film again. She is one of Harvey’s few surefire chances at a nomination this year (and she allegedly had his name tattooed on her butt), and he will not mess it up.

Emma Thompson basically ruled the Academy Awards in the 1990s, becoming the only woman to win Oscars for acting and writing. It’s been nearly 20 years she was seriously in contention, but she’s back with a vengeance this year as P.L. Travers in Saving Mr. Banks. She has good reviews for the film (it’s a performance she could do in her sleep), but more importantly she is campaigning like a madwoman and reminding everyone why they’ve always loved her. Much like in Tom Hanks’ case, the Academy is likely happy to welcome Emma Thompson back. I’m giving the last spot to Amy Adams for American Hustle. After four nominations in the Supporting Actress category, Amy is trying her luck in the leading category. It’s been a bumpy ride thus far, as most critics contend that Jennifer Lawrence stole the film with half the screentime. Still, Adams has drawn her own fair share of acclaim, and her surprise BAFTA nomination is likely a sign of things to come. As always, she is doing the work on the campaign trail, and she is well-liked in the industry. I think she’ll be swept in with the general love for American Hustle.

It feels slightly silly to talk about Amy Adams being well-liked in the industry when I have Meryl Streep sitting on the outside looking in. She is, by all accounts, a goddess among men in the eyes of the acting community. August: Osage County should be an easy nomination for her. Violet Weston is one of the plumb Broadway roles of the last decade, and any actress of a certain age would kill to play it on stage or screen. When Meryl landed the part in the film version, she was declared the sight-unseen Oscar winner of whatever year it came out. I suppose no one guessed the film would be a turkey. Critics usually still laud Meryl when her movies are bad (The Iron Lady), but even she got some high-profile pans this time around.  Still, this is the kind of in-your-face, scenery-devouring ACTING that will always have its partisans in the Academy. She received recognition from the Golden Globes and SAG, but BAFTA shunned her in a rather bold move. After 30+ years of being a perennial nominee, is the Meryl Streep Golden Age over? Now that she finally has her third Oscar, the Academy may decide to take a break. Even Academy favorites like Susan Sarandon and Shirley MacLaine stopped getting nominated after winning an overdue Oscar. Still, it’s Meryl Streep and Harvey Weinstein. I’m not going to be surprised if she still gets in at the expense of Amy Adams (or Emma Thompson?!).

The somewhat surprising nomination for Emmanuelle Riva last year has some pundits searching for another foreign contender. There is some heat behind Adele Exarchopoulos for Blue is the Warmest Color, but probably not enough. I just can’t imagine the average Academy member sitting through a three-hour French erotic lesbian drama, no matter how critically acclaimed it is. Exarchopoulos tied Cate Blanchett for the prestigious Los Angeles Film Critics Association prize, but she hasn’t been much of a factor elsewhere. It’s worth noting that Kate Winslet got a Golden Globe nomination for Jason Reitman’s Labor Day. Reitman’s name used to carry prestige clout, but I don’t think anyone takes him seriously anymore. Winslet is another case where the Academy is probably done nominating her now that she has her “overdue” Oscar. This year boasted a slew of superb female performances in independent cinema (shout out to Brie Larson in Short Term 12 and Greta Gerwig in Frances Ha), but sadly none of them are on the Academy’s radar.

Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Alt: Daniel Bruhl, Rush

I can’t believe I am typing this sentence, but Jared Leto is winning an Oscar and nothing can stop him. His performance as a transgendered woman with a heart of gold in Dallas Buyers Club is certainly transformative and showy, and it also fulfills one of Oscar’s favorite archetypes: the magical minority who helps our hero along his journey (think Morgan Freeman in Million Dollar Baby and Whoopi Goldberg in Ghost). He’s already cleaned up with the critics’ awards, and will likely continue to do so until the Oscars. Michael Fassbender is in a distant second place for his portrayal of the sadistic plantation master in 12 Years a Slave. He has plenty of scenery to chew on, and the Academy loves nominating villains in the Supporting Actor category. It looks like Steve McQueen’s muse will finally have his day at the Oscars after his rather cruel snub for Shame two years ago.

I feel oddly confident that Barkhad Abdi is getting in for Captain Phillips. His performance was showy enough, and the script did him many favors by humanizing what could have been a very one-dimensional character. Sony has done an excellent job of putting him out on the campaign circuit to prove that he is not actually a Somali pirate. He got in with every televised awards group, and I expect the Academy to follow suit. Bradley Cooper is also a good bet for American Hustle. Broad comic relief is always popular in the supporting categories, and Cooper is still riding high on the love he got last year for Silver Linings Playbook. The love for American Hustle is strong in the actors branch, and Cooper will be a beneficiary.

The last slot is tricky, but I’m going out on a limb and giving it to Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street. The movie is peaking at the right time, and Hill is central to some of the film's most epic set pieces (the quaaludes scene alone is nomination-worthy). He's had buzz all season long, but the televised awards shut him out. Still, we usually get a WTF nomination in the supporting categories (Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road, Max Von Sydow in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, etc.), and I am throwing caution to the wind and attempting to get ahead of the curve on this one. Hill is an Oscar nominee in a field of Hollywood outsiders, and I get the impression that people in the industry really like him. It could be enough to eke out a nomination.

The smart money is on Daniel Bruhl for Rush. On paper it makes sense, as he got that golden SAG+Globe+BAFTA combo in the run up to the Oscar nominations. He’s the co-lead of his film, and it was quite the flashy, scenery-chewing performance. He’s also playing a real person, which should give him some extra Oscar mojo. But does anyone care about Rush? That just does not strike me as a high-priority awards season viewing film for most Oscar voters. I think he will be this year's surprising snub-ee who hit all the right precursors but failed to generate the passion for an Oscar nomination.

James Gandolfini is a possible spoiler for Enough Said. Obviously the guy is still riding the sympathy wave following his unexpected death last summer. The movie was a minor hit, and his reviews were strong. He got a SAG nomination, but I think the buck stops there. Let’s face it: James Gandolfini was a television actor. He was respected, but these are not the Emmys. If no one cares about Rush, I am 100% no one in the actors branch gives two craps about Enough Said. Posthumous nominations usually only happen if the performance would have made the cut anyway (think Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight). That is definitely not the case here. It’s a subtle, understated performance in a well-received, but ultimately not Oscar-baity film.

An upset could come from a number of Best Picture contenders. Maybe the actors branch will go really wild for American Hustle and Jeremy Renner can get in here alongside Bradley Cooper. Will Forte got a few critics’ award mentions for Nebraska, but I can’t imagine anyone actually voting for him. Tom Hanks is also a possible spoiler for his work as Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks.

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Alt: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence is the Queen of Hollywood and is very likely walking away with her second Oscar in two years. At age 23, she will become the youngest person to receive three Oscar nominations (the late Teresa Wright did it at 24).  Should she win, she will be the youngest person to win two Oscars (Luise Rainer was 27 when she set the record 76 years ago). She has best-in-show raves in a Best Picture frontrunner, and she already has the Golden Globe and wins from the New York Film Critics’ Circle and the National Society of Film Critics. Even though she just won, I think she will become undeniable.

If anyone can stop the JLaw train, it is Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave. The recent Yale Drama grad has received “star is born” raves for her debut film performance. She has quickly become a red carpet fixture, and she has won many in the industry over with her charm and humility. I also think Oprah is a surefire nominee despite her snub from the Golden Globes. While she got some outright pans, most agree that she acquitted herself nicely in The Butler. For the most well-connected person in Hollywood, that should be enough. Oprah has been pounding the pavement for this nomination, and frankly I would be afraid to not vote for her if I were in the actors branch.  And really, who doesn’t want to see Oprah at the Oscars?

After that, I expect to see June Squibb recognized for her work as a foul-mouthed granny in Nebraska. Squibb is a complete no-name, but the actors branch likes to recognize long-toiling character actors who finally break through. And as I said before, there is always room for broad comic relief in the supporting categories. I’m giving the last spot to Julia Roberts for August: Osage County. The movie is a flop, but I think voters will be happy to have Julia back on the awards circuit for the first time since she won 13 years ago. It feels weird to predict her and not Meryl Streep, but the supporting actress category is simply less competitive.

If anyone can upset this group, it’s Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine. Hawkins is another one of those nose-to-the-grind character actors who struggle for recognition, but she certainly has a higher profile than June Squibb. She pulled off nominations from the Globes and BAFTA, and it’s not hard to see the Academy following suit. It’s not uncommon for strong lead acting contenders to pull along their supporting co-stars for a surprise nomination (see: Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart).

Scarlett Johansson has buzz for her work as the seductive operating system in Her, but I can’t imagine the Academy going for a voice performance. Octavia Spencer has been working the campaign circuit for her performance in Fruitvale Station. The grieving mother is a popular Oscar archetype, but the film just doesn’t seem to be registering in the industry. There are some murmurings around the web about Jennifer Garner sneaking in for Dallas Buyers Club. She literally has nothing to work with in that film, but after Jacki Weaver’s nomination for Silver Linings Playbook last year, I have to concede that anything is possible if the Academy likes the movie enough. That could similarly be good news for Margot Robbie if The Wolf of Wall Street has enough fans in the actors branch.

Best Original Screenplay

American Hustle

Blue Jasmine

Her

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

Alt: Enough Said

The screenwriting categories this year seem eerily obvious, which is never a good thing. The writers branch likes to throw curveballs more than almost anyone else in the Academy. Still, the frontrunners for Original Screenplay are pure writers branch catnip. I mean…… David O. Russell, Spike Jonze, Woody Allen, the Coen brothers. It would be foolish to leave any of them off the list. Alexander Payne didn’t even write Nebraska, but I’d be surprised if a good chunk of the Academy realized that. That film is his voice through and through.

If anything is vulnerable from that list, it’s Inside Llewyn Davis, which was snubbed by the Writers Guild. Still, one has to remember that the Academy writers branch is more highbrow than their WGA brethren (which includes people who write, like….commercials). At WGA, the Coen brothers missed to Dallas Buyers Club, which is just not going to happen at the Oscars. No matter how beloved that film is throughout the rest of the Academy, it is just not a writers branch kind of film.

If the writers branch veers from the obvious five, it will likely be for indie hit Enough Said. Nicole Holofcener is probably the most respected female writer/director in the biz these days, and it seems right that she will get her first Oscar nomination soon. The movie has some Oscar buzz thanks to James Gandolfini, but the writers branch is likelier to go for it than the actors branch.

Then there is the case of Gravity, which is by all accounts a major Best Picture contender. Still, the film has been criticized for its screenplay, and the writers branch has been known to ignore more visually-driven Best Picture contenders these days (Avatar, Black Swan). If it somehow gets this nomination, look out for it as a serious contender for the Best Picture win.

Fruitvale Station fits the bill as the annual Sundance contender, but the buzz just isn’t there anymore. Saving Mr. Banks was considered the best unproduced screenplay in Hollywood for a while, but naturally everyone says the script is lousy now that the movie is out. It may be a tearjerker, but the writers are the least-likely voters to appreciate that film.

Best Adapted Screenplay

12 Years a Slave

Before Midnight

Captain Phillips

Philomena

The Wolf of Wall Street

Alt: August: Osage County

Unlike the Original Screenplay race, this category is pretty light on Best Picture contenders. 12 Years a Slave probably has this Oscar sewn up. After that, the likeliest nominee is Before Midnight, which is one of this year’s critical darlings and has Sundance cred to boot. The writers nominated Before Sunset nine years ago, and they should follow that trend here.

The other two Best Picture contenders here, Captain Phillips and The Wolf of Wall Street, might have been snubbed by the writers in a weaker year, but I honestly can’t think of stronger substitutes. Ditto Philomena, which has been praised for its writing even if the film is very slight. August: Osage County made it in with the Writers Guild. It has Pulitzer winner Tracy Letts’ name on it, and I don’t think people generally blame him for the film’s shortcomings. Still, it will be hard for the script to overcome the general lack of love for the film.

What else is there? If the writers want to go arty and foreign, Blue is the Warmest Color may appeal to them. However, that is more of an acting/directing kind of film. The Spectacular Now could have some supporters who want to fill this category with more indie fare. Lone Survivor pulled off a surprise Writers Guild nomination, but again, the snobby Academy writers branch is not likely to embrace that one.

And now the rest……

Best Foreign Language Film

The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)

The Grandmaster (Hong Kong)

The Great Beauty (Italy)

The Hunt (Denmark)

Omar (Palestine)

Alt: The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

Best Animated Film

Despicable Me 2

Ernest and Celestine

Frozen

Monsters University

The Wind Rises

Alt: The Croods

Best Documentary Feature

20 Feet from Stardom

The Act of Killing

Blackfish

The Square

Stories We Tell

Alt: Tim’s Vermeer

Best Film Editing

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Gravity

The Wolf of Wall Street

Alt: Rush

Best Cinematography

12 Years a Slave

The Grandmaster

Gravity

Inside Llweyn Davis

Prisoners

Alt: Nebraska

Best Production Design

12 Years a Slave

Gravity

The Great Gatsby

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Saving Mr. Banks

Alt: Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Costume Design

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

The Great Gatsby

The Invisible Woman

Saving Mr. Banks

Alt: Oz the Great and Powerful

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

American Hustle

Dallas Buyers Club

The Lone Ranger

Alt: Band Grandpa

Best Original Score

12 Years a Slave

The Book Thief

Gravity

Monsters University

Saving Mr. Banks

Alt: Philomena

Best Original Song

Frozen – “Let It Go”

The Great Gatsby – “Young and Beautiful”

Her – “The Moon Song”

Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom - "Ordinary Love"
One Chance – “Sweeter Than Fiction”

Alt: Lee Daniels’ The Butler – “You and I Ain’t Nothin’ No More”

Best Sound Mixing

12 Years a Slave

Captain Phillips

Inside Llewyn Davis

Gravity

Lone Survivor

Alt: Rush

Best Sound Editing

All is Lost

Captain Phillips
Frozen

Gravity

Lone Survivor

Alt: Rush

Best Visual Effects

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Iron Man 3

Pacific Rim

Star Trek: Into Darkness

Alt: Oblivion