Olympic Preview: ICE DANCE

Bow down, b*tches.

Ice dance has long been the most arcane of the figure skating disciplines with its complicated rules and results that don’t often correlate to what happens in competition. Shady backroom wheeling and dealing is a harsh reality of figure skating, but there is rarely a major figure skating scandal that does not somehow involve ice dance. Despite (or because of) the drama, ice dance is probably my favorite skating discipline these days. The field is deep, and the level of performance at major competitions is always high. 

Meryl Davis and Charlie White have emerged from this season as the Olympic gold medal favorites. They won the Grand Prix Final (although just barely), and gave new meaning to the phrase “nationals inflation” when they achieved a perfect program components score in the free dance at U.S. Nationals. The latest version of “Scheherazade” has some nice choreographic embellishments that should silence the haters who contend the program is too cold. Haters be damned, they have absolutely nailed their programs in every outing this year. Meryl and Charlie are looking sharp, well-trained, and ready to go. If they pull off the gold, they’ll be the first ever U.S. ice dance team to do so. 

 

Their main competition will still come from Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, the reigning Olympic champions. Tessa and Scott gave the Americans a run for their money at the Grand Prix Final, but they came up short in the end. The Canadian judges did their best to hyper-inflate their scores at Nationals, though Tessa botched the twizzles in the free dance. It’s no secret that the Americans have thoroughly surpassed their training mates technically, though many in the skating world still prefer Tessa and Scott’s more classic ballroom style.

The battle for gold in ice dance has been close and contentious for the past four years. These two teams may see each other for eight hours daily, but they are most certainly not friends. The involvement of ice dance powerbroker Marina Zoueva only complicates matters. It is rare for the top two teams in the world to train under the same coach, and many fans speculate that Marina heavily influences their outcomes. As the Canadians already have an Olympic gold, it’s not difficult to imagine Marina sitting firmly in the American camp. Meryl and Charlie have the momentum at this point, and in my opinion they also have the better programs. The Canadians often struggle when they sense they are trailing the Americans, but the burden is on them to prove their worth and defend their title.

The battle for bronze is still close and unclear. The favorites are probably still Ekaterina Bobrova and Dmitri Soloviev because I can’t imagine the Russian skating federation going empty-handed in ice dance. Ekaterina and Dmitri are not beloved by their federation, but the powers that be have accepted that they are Mother Russia’s best option in this field. Note that they were consistently in the 6-8 range early in this Olympic cycle before grabbing the bronze at last year’s World Championships. That kind of jump is rare in the world of ice dance, and it is a sign of strong political maneuvering. The jump in ranking was preceded by their sudden move to politically powerful coach Sasha Zhulin. Suddenly we hear stories about Ekaterina’s improved posture and the couple’s superior artistry, though the skating has not changed over the last three years.

The technical panels have been kind to Ekaterina and Dmitri in a season where many top teams have struggled to maximize their levels on the short dance compulsory pattern. However, their bizarre “dying bird” free dance has given them trouble, with mistakes costing them the gold at Cup of China and the bronze in the Grand Prix Final. Despite a decisive win at Russian Nationals, the powers that be pressured Ekaterina and Dmitri to drop the free dance and revert back to last year’s more successful but equally bad “insane asylum” program. They sat out the European Championships, so no one is sure how they’re looking. I have no doubt that the pieces are in place for them to win bronze if they deliver. The question will be whether or not they are obviously sloppy in the free dance.

The biggest hurdle for the Russians will likely be the veteran French team of Nathalie Pechalat and Fabian Bourzat. The French skating federation is a political force to be reckoned with, and they are not giving up their one chance at an Olympic medal this year without a fight.  After a disappointing 2013 season, Nathalie and Fabian got their own Russian powerbroker coach in Igor Shpiliband (despite their vocal protests over leaving their old team). Like the Russians, they skipped the European Championships, so the last impression international judges have of them is their strong bronze medal-winning performance in the Grand Prix Final. This under-the-radar approach is likely wise given both skaters’ propensity to injury. Nathalie and Fabian’s “Little Prince” free dance has been well-received throughout the season, but their short dance technical scores remain a problem. They need to focus on delivering a sharp and clean short dance to make sure they are in striking distance to nab the bronze in the free dance. 

In the absence of the Russian and French favorites, the prestigious European Championship gold went to Anna Cappellini and Luca Lanotte. This was a big boost to the top Italian team after they finished a devastating sixth place in the Grand Prix Final. Anna and Luca have progressed from eighth to sixth to fourth over the last three World Championships, and they have their sights set on an Olympic medal. The chances are slim, but entering the Olympics as the European Champions is good for their momentum. I’ve said on this blog before that their programs don’t do them any favors. They have a nice, graceful style, but their “Barber of Seville” free dance doesn’t pack much of a punch. It doesn’t help that they share coach Igor Shpiliband with the French team, and it’s clear where his political priorities are. Anna and Luca have to count on skating clean and hoping that the Russians and French falter. Otherwise, they’re looking at a fifth place finish at best. 

If the judges had their way, the European Championships would have gone to second-ranked Russians Elena Ilinykh and Nikita Katsalapov. Elena and Nikita are everything you want in an ice dance team: gorgeous line and extension, impressive speed and ice coverage, and engaging interpretive ability. It doesn’t hurt that they’re both model hot. Unfortunately, they are probably the laziest top dance team in recent memory. This became the subject of a major falling out with their former coach, Sasha Zhulin, before he took on their top domestic rivals instead. Their lack of proper preparation shows up when they make major errors on things like pair spins and step sequences……or just on choreographic moves at the end of the program. They can usually manage one good contest per year, which they seem to have already accomplished at Trophee Eric Bompard, where they unexpectedly beat the top French team. They followed this up by falling three times at Russian Nationals and melting down on their free dance twizzle sequence at the European Championships. Their program components score at Europeans showed that the judges were ready to hand them the gold, but Elena and Nikita practically gave it away to the Italians. No one knows what to expect in Sochi. If they deliver, they could be a threat for the podium. If not, they could end up in ninth place like they were at last year’s World Championships. They remain one of the most frustratingly talented but difficult teams in dance, but that’s why we love them.

The only non-European team in the hunt for bronze is Canada’s Kaitlyn Weaver and Andrew Poje. Even still, it’s kind of just a courtesy to call them contenders, as there is almost no way that there will be a North American sweep of the podium. Still, Kaitlyn and Andrew have been in the top five in the last three World Championships, and their “Maria de Buenos Aires” free dance is among the strongest of the year. Unfortunately, it seems that the international technical panels this season have found a way to hold them down no matter what. They were noticeably low-balled in the short dance at Rostelecom Cup and in the free dance in the Grand Prix Final. It will take a miracle to get them on the Olympic podium, and coach Angelika Krylova likely knows that. She was also on the losing side of some bad political deals in her time as an elite ice dancer. Kaitlyn and Andrew should take this as a learning experience, as they will likely emerge as major contenders after Sochi. 

The other two American teams will likely round out the top nine. If either team can break through the group of seven I’ve mentioned, it is Madison Chock and Evan Bates. After a shaky Grand Prix season, the figure skating community was stunned with how impressive they looked at U.S. Nationals. For a team that tends to struggle technically, they have clearly spent time meticulously tweaking their elements to maximize levels. Nationals also marked the first time I felt their skating matched the passion and intensity of their “Les Miserables” musical selections in the free dance. The pair is still all about Madison’s star quality while Evan drags her around through the difficult technical elements. Still, they are engaging on the ice and have a nice, polished look. It will be difficult for them to improve on their seventh place finish from last year’s World Championships (they are political priority number three for Igor Shpiliband after the French and Italians), but I won’t be surprised if they match it. 

Maia and Alex Shibutani failed to gain ground on their domestic rivals, and they seem unlikely to climb back up the international standings. They have toiled in eighth place hell after their fluke bronze at the 2011 World Championships, and they may find themselves even lower this year. They’re still among the stronger top dance teams technically, but their sibling awkwardness makes it easy for the judges to kill them in program components. They wisely replaced their dreary “Ben” arrangement from the Michael Jackson free dance with “Man in the Mirror,” but the entire program still seems very slapped together. Michael Jackson is difficult to pull off in competitive ice dance, and his choreography looks especially wrong on these two. Maia and Alex may fare better in the future after Marina Zoueva moves on from Davis/White and Virtue/Moir and can actually spend time on them.