The Road to Sochi: Men's and Ladies' Contenders in the Grand Prix Final

After our look at the Olympic contenders who will not be at the Grand Prix Final, let's dive in and analyze the Men's and Ladies' fields for this weekend's competition in Fukuoka.

Men

Patrick Chan (Canada) – The three-time reigning World Champion is without a doubt the odds-on Olympic favorite. Patrick is the kind of skater that the current judging system was made for. He checks all the boxes of what the ideal male skater should be, and he typically builds up such a lead in his program components score that he can afford a mistake or two and still win World titles. His success has been so controversial in the skating world that fans coined the term “Chanflation” to explain the astronomical scores he gets even when he’s not skating his best. No one is questioning his two wins on the Grand Prix circuit this year thanks to his truly stunning performances, but his win at the World Championships last year over a cleaner Denis Ten still leaves a bad taste in skating fans’ mouths. His oftentimes arrogant demeanor in interviews hasn’t helped his case much. Patrick may find that he has a target on his back in Sochi, as the International Skating Union likely wants to avoid another controversial outcome at the Olympics. The Grand Prix Final is not as important for Patrick’s Olympic prospects as it is for others’. He needs to focus on peaking in Sochi, as international judges may be done giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Tatsuki Machida (Japan) – Surprisingly, the only man besides Chan to win both of his Grand Prix events was a skater who has never even been to the World Championships. Tatsuki Machida has struggled for recognition in a crowded Japanese men’s field, and this might be the year he pulls it off. There isn’t anything particularly remarkable about his skating. He has nice edges and a consistent quad toe, but he tends to leave me cold. However, he has proven himself to be a reliable competitor, which is a strong asset in an increasingly unpredictable international men’s field. A strong showing at the Grand Prix Final would help Machida’s case to make the Japanese Olympic team immensely. Making it to the Olympics will be his biggest hurdle. Once he’s there, he will be a default medal contender by virtue of emerging from the bloodbath of Japanese Nationals.

Yuzuru Hanyu (Japan) – Teen phenom Yuzuru Hanyu has amassed an army of screaming Japanese fangirls in his two years on the senior international scene, and he seems likely to be one of the international breakout stars of the Olympics. He’s a threat for the Olympic gold medal when he’s on, but he’s yet to skate a clean long program this season. At this point I would chalk it up to nerves and youthful inexperience. The Grand Prix Final will be an important test for Hanyu, as he faces off against the best in the world on home ice surrounded by intense media scrutiny. This will be a taste of Olympic pressure that he will need to get used to before Sochi. He lost to Patrick Chan at both of his Grand Prix events, but a win here could be a confidence booster heading in to the Olympics. If he’s ever going to beat Chan this season, Japan is the place to do it.

Maxim Kovtun (Russia) – Russia has struggled to find an internationally competitive men’s skater since Evgeny Plushenko retired (again) in 2010. The situation became so dire that Plushenko is attempting yet another comeback. Kovtun’s senior debut season was less than auspicious, as his poor performance at the 2013 World Championships ensured that only one Russian man would qualify for the Olympics. However, he’s more than proven his worth this year with two silver medals on the Grand Prix. Kovtun is still comparatively weak in this Grand Prix Final field in terms of skating skills and presentation. He also has endurance issues in the long program that suggest a lack of run-throughs in practice. However, he got a nice home ice program components score boost at Rostelecom Cup that suggests he’ll be just fine in Sochi. I doubt he’ll be a medal threat in the Grand Prix Final, but a respectable performance here should ensure that the Russian fed sends him to the Olympics over Plushenko.

Yan Han (China) – Here we have another teen phenom who had a great showing in his debut senior Grand Prix season. Yan pulled off an upset win at Cup of China and then fought through a nasty fever at Trophee Eric Bompard to sew up his spot in the Grand Prix Final. Like Kovtun, he’s a bit lacking in refinement compared to the other top men, but his jump arsenal is impressive, and he’s already proven himself to be a tough competitor. As the first real Chinese men’s contender in quite some time, expectations and pressure are very high on Yan. The Grand Prix Final will be a test of his mental toughness heading into the Olympics. A medal will be a longshot in this field, so Yan’s goal should be two strong performances in a high-profile event.

Nobunari Oda (Japan) – The beneficiary of Daisuke Takahashi’s untimely injury is yet another contender for the Japanese Olympic team. Nobunari Oda has been on the international scene since 2005, seemingly entering every World Championships as a medal contender but never quite pulling it off. He’s struggled enormously since the 2010 Olympics, and he didn’t even advance to Worlds the last two seasons. He’s made an impressive comeback this season, but it’s still going to be tough for him to make the Olympic team. He has the programs and technical content to do very well here if he hits. If he can beat Machida and/or Hanyu, it would help his case immensely in the eyes of the Japanese fed. I’m rooting for him because of the amazing facial expressions he serves during his step sequences. The world needs to experience Oda “O” face at the Olympics.

Ladies

Mao Asada (Japan) – After the bitter disappointment of finishing second to her eternal rival Yuna Kim at the 2010 Olympics, Mao decided to push through to Sochi for another shot at Olympic gold. She struggled through the 2011 and 2012 seasons with a jump technique change and the death of her mother. She made a triumphant return to form last year, and she’s put in her best performances in years on the Grand Prix circuit this season. Mao is the gold medal favorite for the Grand Prix Final, but Yuna’s impending Olympic comeback puts her Olympic gold prospects in doubt. Mao-chan needs to dominate the competition in Fukuoka if she wants to be taken seriously as a gold medal contender in Sochi. Her nemesis Shin Amano is the technical caller this weekend, so she needs to fully rotate those triples lest her technical ability come into serious question again before the Olympics.

Julia Lipnitskaia (Russia) – If Mao Asada doesn’t win this weekend, the gold medal will likely go to Russian wunderkind Julia Lipnitskaia. Julia has impressed during the Grand Prix with her inhuman flexibility and competitive consistency. She’s been rather brilliantly packaged with programs that make her seem like a lady but still embrace her youth. While she lacks the ice coverage and speed of some of the older top ladies like Mao Asada and Carolina Kostner, her program components scores have increased exponentially over the course of this season. It looks like the international judges are ready to put her on the podium in Sochi. The Grand Prix Final will be the first time Julia faces off against Mao, though it will be on Japanese ice with a very pro-Mao crowd. Still, if Julia manages to win here, it’s not much of a leap to see her winning the gold in Sochi.

Ashley Wagner (United States) – Ashley Wagner had another strong Grand Prix season, but I fear for her chances in Fukuoka. She is hungry for an Olympic medal, and this contest will be make or break for her. She needs to be on the podium at this contest to have a prayer of medaling in Sochi, and it would be even better if she could win the silver. However, she will not beat Mao Asada in Japan, and I don’t envy anyone who has to contend with four Russians in the same contest. The Russian political machine is strong this year, and Ashley is the easiest skater to bury in this field in order to prop up the Russian girls. Ashley has become one of the most consistent jumpers in the ladies’ field, and she’s really selling the choreography in both of her programs in ways that make my heart happy. She’s comparatively weaker in spins and footwork, and that’s what could keep her from getting the results she needs here. I’m lighting a candle and praying tonight.

Anna Pogorilaya (Russia) – The biggest surprise in this banner year for Russian ladies was Anna Pogorilaya’s gold medal performance at Cup of China. Suddenly, she became a contender for the already hotly contested Russian Olympic team. Anna is a powerful jumper and a gorgeous spinner, but her skating skills are probably the weakest of the ladies’ Grand Prix Final field. I ultimately think she’ll sit the Olympics out because her scoring potential is the lowest of the top Russian ladies, but she could put herself in a stronger position in Fukuoka by beating Adelina Sotnikova. The girl is a fierce competitor, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her throw down two clean programs and beat some bigger names.

Adelina Sotnikova (Russia) – Adelina lucked out on the Grand Prix by facing a weak field at Cup of China that allowed her to take the silver medal with a messy performance. She’s one of the more hit-or-miss of the top ladies, but international judges love her when she’s on. She may have a tough time here with a strict technical caller, as her jumps are always a bit suspect. Still, she’s a medal threat in Fukuoka if she hits. The Grand Prix Final is essential for Adelina to secure her Olympic spot. Unfortunately, she was part of the 2013 Russian Worlds team that only secured two ladies’ slots for Sochi, so there is some residual ill will towards her in the Russian fed. Lipnitskaia is probably a lock, so Adelina should focus on soundly beating Anna Pogorilaya to prove her competitive worth. Taking down Ashley Wagner would be icing on the cake.

Elena Radionova (Russia) – At age 14, the reigning Junior World champion is too young to compete at the Olympics. That didn’t stop her from making noise on her first crack at the Senior Grand Prix and blocking some Olympic contenders from the Grand Prix Final. There are no expectations for Elena in Fukuoka, but she definitely can’t be counted out. That girl has scary Tara Lipinski competitive instincts. Her program components scores will be the lowest of this field, but you just know she’s going to hit the technical content. Though she obviously doesn’t figure into the Olympic picture, she has the potential to shake the confidence of the top contenders, just like 15 year-old Mao Asada did when she won the Grand Prix Final in 2005.