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| Future EGOT Winner Patricia Arquette |
Best Picture
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest
Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of
Everything
Whiplash
Between 0 and 2 of:
Gone Girl
Nightcrawler
You guessed it. We still have a floating Best Picture
nominee system. There will be at least five, but no more than ten nominees for
Best Picture. To be nominated, a film needs at least 5% of the #1 votes from
all members of the Academy. So far, every time the Academy has played this
game, we got nine Best Picture nominees. Is that the magic number? Possibly,
but I’m not yet sold. Honestly, it’s been a weird year. Many of the mega-hyped
big studio prestige releases underwhelmed. I wouldn’t be shocked if we wound up
with eight nominees or fewer, but it seems like there are a ton of movies that
could get nominated if the cards fall right.
Through it all, the unlikely frontrunner appears to be Boyhood – Richard Linklater’s 12-year
chronicle of a young boy’s journey to adolescence. It bowed to positive buzz at
Sundance, but its awards traction really took off when it became an art house
sensation and literally the most critically acclaimed film of all time over the
summer. It’s very low key for an Oscar
winner, but it’s emotional and universally relatable, and the “12 years a
film!” narrative is really catching on. The film has already swept the critics’
awards, and it even did well with the star-worshipping Golden Globes. I think
it will be undeniable come Oscar night.
After a disappointing 2013 (in which he still managed to get
a Best Picture nomination for Philomena
of all things), Harvey Weinstein is back with a vengeance. His main pony this
season is The Imitation Game, which
tells the story of Alan Turing cracking the Enigma code and winning World War
II. Critics agree that it’s bland, paint-by-the-numbers Oscar bait (and it
isn’t gay enough!), but there is certainly an audience for that in the Academy.
The Imitation Game won the
all-important Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival (joining the likes of
Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, and 12 Years a Slave), and Harvey is already
running an aggressive For Your Consideration campaign reminding us all how IMPORTANT
and PRESTIGIOUS this film is. Look out for this one as a contender for the win.
The more cinematically adventurous crowd will gravitate
toward Birdman – a dark comedy about
a washed-up actor attempting to reclaim his former glory. This is a technically
ambitious critical darling full of showy performances from respected,
Academy-friendly actors. This should get a handful of nominations even if it
won’t be a frontrunner for the top prize. The other critical darling looking
good for a Best Picture nomination is Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel. Anderson experienced a major critical
resurgence two years ago for Moonrise
Kingdom, and his follow-up is even more beloved. More importantly, it made
a shocking amount of money at the international box office. If the Academy is
ever going to embrace a Wes Anderson film, it’s going to be something with the
wide commercial appeal and sumptuous aesthetics of Budapest.
But of course, there must be more offerings for the
Academy’s middlebrow bread and butter. Stephen Hawking biopic The Theory of Everything fits the bill.
Critics were not enthused about this one, but it’s a crowd-pleasing tearjerker
anchored by two strong performances. Focus Features has reminded everyone that
they are an A-list Oscar studio by running a particularly aggressive
promotional campaign that even flaunts Stephen Hawking’s seal of approval (it
made him cry!). This is getting nominated.
Despite some reservations, I think there is room for Whiplash, the music conservatory-set
psychological drama that caused a sensation at Sundance. Mainstream critical
reception was strong, and it’s almost guaranteed an acting Oscar. Will it get
enough #1 votes? I’m skeptical, mostly because it flopped at the box office.
Buzzy festival hits usually need to make money to get a Best Picture nod.
Still, the movie has its fans, and it’s performed well all season. People who see
the movie tend to really love it, which is exactly what’s necessary to prevail
in this system. It’s also the top push
of strong Oscar studio Sony Pictures Classics, and they usually have a movie in
the Best Picture mix.
And then there is Selma,
which by all accounts should be a frontrunner for the big prize. Martin Luther
King has always been Oscar bait gold waiting to happen, and the film has
outright raves from critics who matter. Academy screenings have reportedly
ended in tear-filled standing ovations, and the public outcry over the Eric
Garner and Michael Brown cases have made this film especially relevant. So why
is it so far down the list? Paramount really botched the rollout on this one,
and it’s been very underseen. That has resulted in shutouts from the guilds and
BAFTA. It has also stirred up a historical accuracy controversy over its
somewhat negative portrayal of Lyndon B. Johnson. It enters Oscar nomination morning looking
weak, but I think it will find enough support for a Best Picture nomination.
I am perplexed over what to do with American Sniper – Clint Eastwood’s biopic about Iraq War hero Chris Kyle. This was a late addition to the awards season slate, and it didn’t get much love from the critics’ awards or the Golden Globes. Eastwood has a strong Oscar pedigree, but the Academy hasn’t been kind to him since Letters from Iwo Jima back in 2006. Does he still have pull in the industry? A-list tastemakers like Jane Fonda and Ben Affleck are publicly raving about the film, and it’s doing killer business in limited release. It feels like a box office smash waiting to happen (and it will be your gun-toting, Tea Party-loving uncle’s new favorite movie). Warner Bros. has been on a roll lately (as Argo and Gravity clearly show), and this is their big awards push of the year. I think this can probably get nominated.
On paper, Gone Girl is
a slam-dunk Best Picture nominee. David Fincher directs an adaptation of a
wildly popular novel to critical acclaim and phenomenal box office numbers. But
is it an Oscar movie? Populist thrillers have gotten Best Picture nominations
in the past (Fatal Attraction and The Fugitive come to mind). Gone Girl, however, is colder and darker
than your average Best Picture nominee. It actually calls to mind David
Fincher’s last movie, The Girl with the
Dragon Tattoo, which seemed to have everything going for it and ultimately
missed the Best Picture lineup. Buzz
from Academy screenings for Gone Girl
has allegedly not been great. I’m counting on the executive types to come
through for this one, as it was one of the few big studio awards season
releases that didn’t totally flop. However, I won’t be surprised if it misses.
We could also see a nod for Nightcrawler. The film premiered to little fanfare at the Toronto
Film Festival, but it became a surprise box office hit in the fall, and critics
really came to bat for it in their end-of-year top 10 lists. It completely
surpassed expectations with the guilds and BAFTA, and it seems to have its fans in the Academy. At the end of the day, it’s another dark thriller in a
field where we already have Gone Girl.
Is there room for both? I’m inclined to say no, but I won’t be shocked if it
happens.
There are several other films that could spoil the Best
Picture lineup. First is Foxcatcher –
a true crime drama from Oscar-nominated director Bennett Miller that went over
big at Cannes. The Golden Globes and several guilds bit, but this is another
one that is maybe too cold and alienating for Oscar. The Academy votes with its heart, not with
its head. Add that to the big recent blowup over the film’s factuality, and Foxcatcher will have an uphill battle to
the nomination.
Unbroken is an
interesting case. As expected, critics came with their knives out for Angelina
Jolie’s second directing foray. The Golden Globes unexpectedly gave the film
the cold shoulder when most thought they’d do anything to get Angie and Jen
Aniston on the red carpet at the same time. However, the film keeps popping up
in the awards conversation thanks to citations from middlebrow groups like the
American Film Institute and the Broadcast Film Critics Association. The senior
contingent of the Academy loves its World War II dramas, and Louis Zamperini’s
story is especially harrowing and inspirational. This film is also completely shattering
expectations at the box office, and the Academy loves to reward adult dramas
that make money. I can see Unbroken
pulling the support for a Best Picture nod, even if it doesn’t get any other
above-the-line nominations.
There are a few other films with a conceivable shot, but all
have considerable weaknesses. Paramount built up Interstellar as a strong Oscar contender
with a pre-release campaign billing it as Christopher Nolan’s masterpiece and
the modern-day answer to 2001: A Space
Odyssey. Though it got decent reviews and made money, most people view Interstellar as a critical and
commercial disappointment. It became a victim of its own hype and likely won’t
make many waves at the Oscars, much to the chagrin of internet fanboys
everywhere. And then there’s Into the
Woods – the long-awaited adaptation of a beloved Broadway musical with a
star-studded cast and impressive holiday box office receipts. This feels like
it should be a huge Oscar contender, but the buzz just isn’t there. Disney is a
notoriously terrible Oscar studio, and they are proving themselves as inept as
always at handling a campaign.
Best Director
Wes Anderson, The
Grand Budapest Hotel
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Ava DuVernay, Selma
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alt: Clint Eastwood, American
Sniper
This is a truly perplexing category that seems destined for
an upset or two. The clear frontrunner is Richard Linklater, who has previously
been recognized by the Academy as a writer but not as a director. Linklater’s
prestige has really risen over the past couple of years, and he’s clearly
regarded as a major American filmmaker among his peers at this point. Boyhood is widely considered to be his
masterpiece, and he seems likely to be rewarded for it.
I’m confident the directors branch will welcome back
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, who was previously nominated for Babel. Birdman hits that rare sweet spot of visionary achievement and
mainstream accessibility. In other words, it’s total directors branch catnip. I
think Wes Anderson also looks good for a nomination. Like Linklater, he’s only
ever been nominated as a writer, but he has definitely risen in industry esteem
as a filmmaker over the last few years. If The
Grand Budapest Hotel is really going to be Wes Anderson’s Academy breakout,
then I expect the directors branch to recognize him. If it doesn’t happen now,
it’s never going to.
As for the last two slots……who knows. After Damien
Chazelle’s BAFTA nomination for Whiplash,
I think he’ll probably make it. The directors branch likes to acknowledge
exciting new talent from time to time (a la Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild two years
ago), and Chazelle is already lining up new projects on the heels of his
big breakout. His work is showy and impressive, and the movie is a passion
pick.
I’m also counting on passion to pull Ava DuVernay to a
nomination for Selma. As I previously
mentioned, Paramount has really failed her movie, but the directors branch is
the most likely group in the Academy to respond to such an ambitious
undertaking. DuVernay is already a member of the branch thanks to her buzzy
Sundance breakout Middle of Nowhere
three years ago, and now she’s proven that she can tackle meaty topics on a
bigger budget. She would also be the first ever black woman to receive a Best
Director nomination. It’s hard to know if that’s a plus or a minus with this
small and idiosyncratic group, but DuVernay has established herself as an
important new voice in the industry, and I really think she will be recognized.
With the last minute surge in popularity for American Sniper, Clint Eastwood has to
be taken seriously as a contender. He is a two-time Oscar winning director and
a living legend. Critics were cool on Sniper,
but Clint got a Directors Guild nod, and he will always have his supporters in
the Academy. On the other end of the spectrum is Dan Gilroy for Nightcrawler. He’s an unknown, but his
work is flashy and his movie is gaining momentum heading into nominations
morning. He could pull off a nod in an open field.
David Fincher makes sense as a contender. There really isn’t
a hotter director in Hollywood right now, and everything he touches turns to
gold. Surely his peers in the directors branch of the Academy would be the
first to appreciate that. Gone Girl
is his distinct vision through and through, even if it is an adaptation of a
pulpy beach read. He got a Golden Globe nomination. Still,
my gut tells me that he’s not going to make the cut. It’s just not a film that
has been warmly received in the industry despite its massive success.
It would be unwise to discount Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game, as he helmed a major
Best Picture contender and has Harvey Weinstein in his corner. Still, his
direction has been heavily criticized, and the directors branch does not
respond well to unremarkable work from complete unknowns. The same can be said
of James Marsh for The Theory of
Everything, whose movie will probably appeal to everyone in the Academy but
the very exclusive directors branch. There is a chance that one or both men
could coast to nominations on the strength of their films (Tyldum got in with the Directors Guild and Marsh got a nod from BAFTA), but I wouldn’t count
on it from this organization.
Further down, there are some big names who will probably be
left out in the cold. Bennett Miller should be a big contender after winning
the prestigious Best Director prize at Cannes for Foxcatcher, but that movie’s Oscar chances are cratering by the
second. Now that his film’s real-life subject is publicly calling him a liar
and a cheat, his Oscar dreams are probably dead. Angelina Jolie has been
campaigning hard for Unbroken, but
it’s probably all in vain. While the Academy’s directors branch is often
inclusive of actors-turned-directors, they don’t extend the same courtesy to
actresses (just ask Barbra Streisand how she feels about this organization).
The critics weren’t kind, and the directors branch will be even less likely to
take Jolie seriously as a filmmaker. And finally, poor Christopher Nolan’s
eternal quest to get that Best Director nomination will end poorly once more,
as Interstellar looks like a complete
Oscar bust.
Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch, The
Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The
Theory of Everything
Alt : Bradley Cooper, American
Sniper
Yet again, the Best Actor category is open and exciting with
tons of possibilities. I can’t even call anyone a frontrunner at this point.
I’d say the most likely nominee is Michael Keaton for Birdman. Casting Keaton as a bitter and destitute former superhero
movie star was brilliantly meta, and critics and industry insiders are eating
that performance up. Michael Keaton isn’t exactly considered overdue for
Academy recognition, but it’s the best thing he’s done in years, and the
Academy loves a good comeback story. He could very well contend for the win in
this field of youngsters and Hollywood outsiders.
Keaton’s biggest challenge will likely come from Eddie
Redmayne in The Theory of Everything.
He has been building his cred as an actor in Oscar bait vehicles like Les Miserables and My Week with Marilyn over the past few years,
but his turn as Stephen Hawking is an out-of-nowhere tour de force that has
earned him love letters even from critics who didn’t like the movie. Redmayne
has seized his moment in the spotlight, and he has been inescapable this awards
season. It is rare to see this kind of thirst and desperation for Oscar glory
from anyone who is not Leo DiCaprio. At 32, Redmayne is young for a Best Actor
winner, and he is still a newcomer to the Hollywood scene. Still, his
persistence may pay off.
I feel comfortable reserving a spot for Benedict
Cumberbatch. His star has really risen over the past year, as evidence by a
surprise Emmy for his work in Sherlock
and the most rabid and unexplainable fanbase for an actor in recent memory. His
work as Alan Turing in The Imitation Game
gives him a lot of scenery to chew on, and Harvey Weinstein has been pimping
him out at every opportunity. The time seems right for the Academy to welcome
Cumberbatch to the club, though I don’t think he’ll win this year.
Jake Gyllenhaal’s attempts to be an A-list box office draw
fizzled out with Prince of Persia,
but he’s found a nice niche in Hollywood as the guy you call to headline
something dark, gritty, and low-budget. After leading End of Watch and Prisoners
to acclaim and strong box office, he got career-best raves (a common theme in
this category) for his work as a sociopathic wannabe newsman in Nightcrawler. This performance has drawn
comparisons to De Niro in Taxi Driver,
and Gyllenhaal has Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nods. There is a lot of love for this
performance, and I think he will get the nomination even above guys in stronger
Best Picture contenders.
The last spot is a conundrum, and there are about five guys
who make sense. I’m throwing caution to the wind and giving it to David
Oyelowo. Part of this is my own reaction to the film and the performance, which
isn’t good prediction practice. But how do you watch Selma and not vote for the guy? It helps that he has absolute “star
is born” raves, and it does not get much Oscar bait-ier than MLK. I’m chalking
up the SAG and BAFTA snubs to just not enough people seeing the film. If enough
members of the actors branch see Selma,
I am confident Oyelowo is in.
I can also see the last spot going to Bradley Cooper. This list
is lacking star power, and Cooper is on a roll these days. He’s getting some of
the best reviews of his career for American
Sniper, and the film’s buzz was really igniting as Oscar ballots were being
sent out. Does it matter that he didn’t get any nominations from big pre-Oscar
awards groups? I don’t think so, especially when he’s getting very public
endorsements from everyone from Robert De Niro to Jonah Hill. Bradley Cooper is
on top of the world, and I think he could eke out an Oscar nod for the third
year in a row.
If general love in the industry for the movie itself is what wins the race for this category, then Ralph Fiennes is a strong contender for The Grand Budapest Hotel. He’s a respected, Oscar-nominated actor leading a likely Best Picture nominee. It doesn’t hurt that he has great reviews and Globe and BAFTA nominations. I hesitate because it’s a comedic performance in a sea of Serious Acting, but it’s still a sympathetic turn in a movie that has a lot of heart. The film’s fans could push him in.
We could also see a nod for Steve Carell as billionaire
heir-turned-murderer John Du Pont in Foxcatcher.
Unlike Fiennes, Carell’s performance bleeds Oscar bait. It’s an astonishing
transformation for someone typically viewed as a comedian, and he’s playing a
real person. Despite critical acclaim and Globe and SAG nominations, I think
Carell will be snubbed due to general ambivalence for the film. Channing Tatum
should really be the one with the Oscar buzz for that movie anyway (I’m not
joking. He’s incredible). The last realistic contender is Timothy Spall as the
eponymous painter in Mr. Turner. Mike
Leigh movies can be hit or miss in the acting categories, and I’m unsure how this
one will play with the Academy at large. Spall is a hardworking character actor
finally getting his chance at a leading role, and his work here is very
physical and showy. He won the Best Actor prizes from Cannes, the New York Film
Critics’ Circle, and the National Society of Film Critics. Ultimately, I think
he’ll be lost in the shuffle of actors in bigger movies in a particularly
competitive category.
Best Actress
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Felicity Jones, The
Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still
Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone
Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Alt: Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Unlike the Best Actor category, the Best Actress field shows
just how few good parts there were for women in Hollywood this year. At the
head of the pack is probably Julianne Moore, who is having one of the best
years of her career. She picked up the Best Actress prize at Cannes for her
bonkers work in David Cronenberg’s camp masterpiece Maps to the Stars, and she had a major role in the new Hunger Games movie, marking her first part
in a legitimate blockbuster in forever.
Moore’s good fortune continued at the Toronto Film Festival, where Still Alice proved to be a left-field
game changer in the Best Actress race.
Critics agree that it’s a cliché-ridden, barely-above-Lifetime quality
film, but Moore has career-best notices for her work as a brilliant professor
slowly dying of Alzheimer’s. Julianne Moore is one of very few working
actresses who are legitimately considered overdue for an Oscar in the industry,
and her work here is impossibly Oscar bait-y. I don’t see how she loses.
Reese Witherspoon might be a strong challenger for the win
if she didn’t already have an Oscar. Witherspoon’s post-Oscar resumé is not
particularly impressive, but she has successfully cast herself in the role of
champion for actresses struggling to find substantial work in Hollywood in the
past couple of years. In addition to producing Gone Girl, she brought Cheryl Strayed’s survival memoir Wild to the screen and gave her best
performance in years in the process. The film is a critical and commercial
success, and Witherspoon has reasserted herself as a major player in Hollywood.
The actors branch will gladly welcome her back.
Rosamund Pike beat out tons of A-list competition for the
most coveted female role in Hollywood this year. Pike has been knocking around
the industry for about a decade, but Gone
Girl finally gave her the opportunity for a real breakout. It’s a
challenging role that requires Pike to be simultaneously believable as America’s sweetheart
and a calculating psychopath, and she got plenty of critical kudos for pulling
it off. There is usually room for
up-and-comers in the Best Actress category, and Pike fits the bill. That’s also
good news for Felicity Jones. Jones is one of a seemingly endless line of
British ingénues who drift from prestige movie to prestige movie waiting for
someone to pay attention (she was last seen in last year’s Dickensian snoozer The Invisible Woman). In The Theory of Everything, she plays one
of the Academy’s favorite tropes: the long-suffering wife of the brilliant,
successful man. She doesn’t really do much besides cry, but the field is weak
and the movie is popular. She is also out there with Eddie Redmayne desperately
pounding the pavement for this nomination.
The last spot is kind of tricky, but I think it will be Amy
Adams in the end. Nobody really cares about Big
Eyes, but everyone loves Amy Adams. She is a perennial nominee at this
point, even though she will probably never win. As usual, Amy has been putting
in the work on the campaign circuit, and she got a wave of sympathy from the
industry after getting booted from "The Today Show" for refusing to talk about
the Sony hack. It helps that she has Harvey Weinstein in her corner, and his
track record in the Best Actress category speaks for itself. It should be yet another filler nomination for the Glenn Close of our generation.
If it’s not Adams, it will be Jennifer Aniston for Cake – a film that I am still not convinced
exists. It premiered at the Toronto Film
Festival to a collective shrug, and every major distributor passed on it. Yet
Aniston pulled nominations from the Globes and SAG through a brilliant
grassroots campaign that involved, yes, actually sending cakes to voters. The
narrative is definitely there. We have an A-list movie star and tabloid fixture
deglamming and reinventing herself as a Serious Actress. The optics are nice,
but the movie is such a non-event that I doubt the Academy will bite. For all
its faults, the Academy is an organization with some integrity, and they are
not usually bought with silly campaigns like this. If she somehow makes it, it
will be a triumph of willpower over good taste.
In a just world, Marion Cotillard would be a shoo-in for one
of her two brilliant and lauded turns this year in The Immigrant and Two Days,
One Night. Major critics’ groups have tried their hardest to make her
happen (including Best Actress prizes from New York and the National Society of
Film Critics), but the televised awards passed. Those movies are ultimately
just too small and arty for the Oscars. There really are a number of worthy options waiting to
be discovered…. Tilda Swinton in Only
Lovers Left Alive, Gugu Mbatha-Raw in both Belle and Beyond the Lights,
Scarlett Johansson in Under the Skin,
Mia Wasikowska in Tracks, Essie Davis
in The Babadook….. it really is too
bad that we have to settle with Adams vs. Aniston, but such is the nature of
awards season.
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, The
Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J. K. Simmons, Whiplash
Alt: Tom Wilkinson, Selma
This is a bizarrely deserted category, with most of the
big Best Picture contenders lacking strong supporting male players. In fact, Whiplash is a rare case of a supporting
actor basically pushing his film to Best Picture contention. J. K. Simmons’
turn as a demented jazz instructor in Whiplash
has been raved to the high heavens since Sundance. It’s a scenery chewing
performance from a beloved yet undervalued veteran in a movie everyone likes.
There is no way he is losing the Oscar.
The distant runner-up would be Edward Norton. Norton has a
reputation of being kind of a tool, but he’s almost playing a heightened
version of himself in Birdman, and he is
clearly in on the joke. I think it also helps that he’s kept a low profile over
the past few years, and the industry is happy to welcome him back. Ethan Hawke
is definitely in for Boyhood. It’s
not a particularly flashy performance, but the film itself is beloved enough to
pull coattail nominations in the acting categories, and Hawke is a three-time
Oscar nominee. His longtime partnership with Richard Linklater will make this
nomination especially poignant.
I’m iffy on Mark Ruffalo, but I don’t think anyone else is
strong enough to bump him out. The buzz for Foxcatcher
just isn’t there, and it would be weird for Ruffalo to be its only
above-the-line nomination. On the other hand, he has by far the most
sympathetic character in that film, and he’s had a good year between this and The Normal Heart. He is a respected,
Oscar-nominated actor. In a weak field, he makes sense as a filler nominee.
Much though I have tried to deny it, I think the last spot
belongs to Robert Duvall for The Judge.
Critics trashed the movie, but audiences ate it up. To say Duvall phoned that
performance in is an understatement, but he’s a living legend, and Warner
Bros.’ campaign has basically amounted to “vote for him because he’s old and
might die!” The Globes and SAG heeded the call. I can see the Academy passing
because the movie is garbage and it has no heat in any other category. However,
Duvall is the kind of beloved veteran who can get a pity nomination. There just
aren’t many other options.
If Selma comes on
strong at the last minute, then Tom Wilkinson is a contender for his work as
Lyndon B. Johnson. Wilkinson is a respected character actor and a two-time
Oscar nominee. It’s a big and loud performance in a movie that a lot of people
love. Despite his lack of any major nominations, he fits the profile of a
surprise nominee.
The other options are sparse and not worth discussing too
much. If Harvey Weinstein gets his way, Christoph Waltz could make it in as Amy
Adams’ overbearing, conniving husband in Big
Eyes. Josh Brolin has a critically acclaimed scene-stealing turn in Inherent Vice, but that movie is probably too weird for the Academy.
BAFTA threw us a curveball and put Steve Carell in the supporting category for Foxcatcher, but that honestly just makes
his path to a nomination more difficult in both categories thanks to possible
confusion.
Best Supporting
Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Keira Knightley, The
Imitation Game
Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the
Woods
Alt: Jessica Chastain, A
Most Violent Year
One of the most fabulously bizarre awards season phenomena I
can remember is Patricia Arquette absolutely steamrolling her way to an Oscar
for Boyhood. She was so washed up
that she actually signed on for “CSI: Cyber” before Boyhood premiered, but little did we know that she was stealthily
delivering her masterwork over the course of the last twelve years. It’s a
subtle and nuanced performance as far as the Oscars go, but it’s one that has
won every accolade imaginable so far this season (including a gloriously
scandalous Best Actress win from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association over
Julianne Moore). The Academy loves a Cinderella story, and Patty Arquette is a
longtime presence in the industry finally getting her due. I think voters are
genuinely happy for her success.
It’s a pretty strong field of contenders even if no one can
unseat Patty. Keira Knightley can be a divisive actress, and most of her
attempts at Oscar bait go nowhere (Anna
Karenina, A Dangerous Method, The Duchess…..I could go on). She got her
best reviews in ages as the lone female codebreaker in The Imitation Game, and she’s finally back in a movie that’s making
money and winning awards. She should be an easy coattail nominee for the film.
The same goes for Emma Stone as Michael Keaton’s recovering junkie daughter in Birdman. Stone is an A-list it-girl who
has felt like an inevitable Oscar nominee for a couple of years now. With Birdman, she finally has a meaty role
that requires a little bit of range, and the Academy should jump all over it.
If there is one golden rule in predicting the Oscars, it is
never to underestimate Meryl Streep. Though Into
the Woods feels like an awards bust, Streep has to be taken very seriously
for her turn as The Witch. She camps it up, she cries, she sings, she deglams
and reglams, and she chews on every piece of scenery in sight. Is she really
not going to get enough votes to make it?
I’m taking a slight risk and giving the last spot to Rene
Russo for Nightcrawler. As I’ve said
before, that movie was gaining momentum when Oscar ballots were due, and this
category is kind to actresses in Best Picture contenders. It seems fitting to
me that Russo would get her first Oscar nod the same year as fellow faded '90s
gal Patty Arquette. She’s very memorable in her turn as a corrupt and cutthroat
news producer, and she got a surprise BAFTA nomination at the expense of Meryl
Streep. This might be wishful thinking, but I think she can pull it off. PS: can anyone believe that this woman is 60?!? She looks incredible!
The consensus choice for the last spot would be Jessica
Chastain, who once again got good reviews for like six different movies last
year. Her best bet is for A Most Violent
Year, which got her a Golden Globe nomination. Her turn as the saucy wife
of a mobster is Oscar gold in this category, and she is one of the hottest
stars working in Hollywood today. The problem is that no one really cares about
that movie, and voters don’t pop in screeners just to fill out their Best
Supporting Actress ballots when there are dozens of other movies to watch. I
think she will probably miss to an actress in a more popular movie. If she makes
it, it will be a testament to just how popular she is in the industry.
Laura Dern feels like she should be more of a threat for her
turn as Reese Witherspoon’s cancer-stricken mother in Wild, even though she’s been snubbed by all the televised groups. She’s
an Oscar nominee who commands a lot of respect in the industry, and she has
been very visible on the campaign circuit. I wouldn’t be stunned if she made
it. I could also be underestimating Imelda Staunton after she pulled a BAFTA
nomination for Pride, but that movie
was big in the UK and hasn’t really registered in the States. Still, never
underestimate the famed "British bloc" in the Academy that comes through for its own! Tilda Swinton got several
high-profile critics’ mentions for Snowpiercer,
but that movie is way too small, and I just never trust the Academy to do the
right thing.
Oh, and I almost forgot about the random SAG nomination for Naomi Watts as a Russian prostitute in St. Vincent, but really, the less said about that performance the better.....
Oh, and I almost forgot about the random SAG nomination for Naomi Watts as a Russian prostitute in St. Vincent, but really, the less said about that performance the better.....
And now for the rest.........
Best Original
Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest
Hotel
Nightcrawler
Mr. Turner
Alt: Selma
Best Adapted
Screenplay
American Sniper
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
The Theory of
Everything
Whiplash
Alt: Wild
Best Foreign Language
Film
Force Majeure (Sweden)
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Timbuktu (Mauritania)
Wild Tales (Argentina)
Alt: Tangerines (Estonia)
Best Documentary
Feature
Citizenfour
Keep on Keepin’ On
Last Days in Vietnam
Life Itself
Virunga
Alt: The Overnighters
Best Animated Feature
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your
Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie
The Tale of Princess
Kaguya
Alt: Song of the Sea
Best Film Editing
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest
Hotel
Whiplash
Alt: The Imitation
Game
Best Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest
Hotel
Ida
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
Alt: The Imitation
Game
Best Production
Design
The Grand Budapest
Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
Alt: Unbroken
Best Costume Design
The Grand Budapest
Hotel
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
Selma
Alt: Maleficent
Best Makeup and
Hairstyling
The Grand Budapest
Hotel
Guardians of the
Galaxy
The Theory of
Everything
Alt: Maleficent
Best Original Score
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest
Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
The Theory of
Everything
Alt: Unbroken
Best Original Song
Annie – “Opportunity”
Begin Again –
“Lost Stars”
Glen Campbell: I’ll Be
Me – “I’m Not Gonna Miss You”
The LEGO Movie –
“Everything is Awesome”
Selma – “Glory”
Alt: Boyhood –
“Split the Difference”
Best Sound Mixing
American Sniper
Birdman
Into the Woods
Unbroken
Whiplash
Alt: The Hobbit:
Battle of the Five Armies
Best Sound Editing
American Sniper
Guardians of the
Galaxy
The Hobbit: Battle of
the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken
Alt: Whiplash
Best Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of
the Apes
Godzilla
Guardians of the
Galaxy
The Hobbit: Battle of
the Five Armies
Interstellar
Alt: Transformers: Age
of Extinction
