Final Oscar Predictions!

Alright folks. It's crunch time. Ballots were due on Tuesday, and those lovable nerds at PricewaterhouseCoopers have tabulated the results and sealed the envelopes. Preparations are underway at the Dolby Theater for tomorrow's 85h Academy Awards. I have obsessively watched every awards race since 1996 (when I was devastated that Madonna did not receive a Best Actress nomination for Evita), and I can honestly say that this has been one of my favorite years ever. All nine of the Best Picture nominees are at least really good, and there is a genuine sense that anything could happen tomorrow night. The nominations were wild, and there is a race in more than half of the "big 8" categories. I called the nominees fairly well (minus that debacle in the Best Director category), but I have had a hard time settling on the winners. I do feel confident in predicting that tomorrow night's show is going to be one of the hottest messes of all time. We've already been promised an Oscar show that will feature the most musical numbers of any Oscar telecast ever. The last time we got that promise, we also got Rob Lowe and Snow White singing "Proud Mary." Without further ado, here are my predictions in every category (minus the shorts, because who cares?). 

Best Picture

Amour

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Les Miserables

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

After triumphing at the Globes, BAFTA, and almost all of the Guilds, it’s tough to imagine Argo losing at this point. My problem is still Ben Affleck’s snub. In 85 years of Oscar history, only three films have ever won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. The first two, Wings and Grand Hotel, were in the first four years of the Academy Awards, when the awards race was still a free-for-all. The other was Driving Miss Daisy in 1989, so there obviously isn’t a pattern here. At the end of the day, it’s impossible to deny the support for Argo in the industry. Like I said before, it’s a true story about Hollywood saving the world. Everybody at least likes it and nobody hates it, which is essential in prevailing in the preferential balloting system for Best Picture. This is the only category that requires voters to rank their choices, and I imagine Argo is in almost everyone’s top three. This is a system that favors the consensus pick (see The King’s Speech and The Artist), and I think Argo absolutely fits the same mold. It’s also worth noting that Warner Brothers’ campaign strategy has played up the Affleck snub brilliantly. All of the advertising has emphasized that Affleck is still nominated as a producer of Argo, so he still gets his Oscar if the movie wins Best Picture. As for the directing snub, the Academy directors branch is a small and idiosyncratic group. I don’t think we’ll ever know exactly why Affleck didn’t make the cut, but it doesn’t seem to matter this year. Ben Affleck is the Bruce Beresford of the 21^st century!

An upset is not out of the question here. Lincoln looks like a winner on paper: Spielberg at the helm, Daniel Day-Lewis in the title role, a Tony Kushner script, glowing reviews, 12 Oscar nominations, and nearly $200 million at the domestic box office. And it’s about Abraham Lincoln! In the wake of the Affleck snub, Lincoln became the default frontrunner. Then it lost every single pre-Oscar Best Picture prize to Argo. What went wrong? Ultimately, I think it was a failure of marketing. DreamWorks has treated the post-nominations campaign for Lincoln like a coronation. Between the themed cookbooks and leather bound scripts sent to Academy members and Bill Clinton showing up to present the film at the Golden Globes, DreamWorks has made Lincoln feel like an obligation to Oscar voters. If there is one thing that members of the Academy hate, it’s being told what to vote for (see also: Saving Private Ryan, Gangs of New York). The perception around town is now that Lincoln is self-important and boring, which was not the case when the movie came out last fall. Still, those 12 nominations prove widespread support for the film throughout all branches of the Academy. It’s still possible that Lincoln could take home the big prize, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

The likelier spoiler to me is probably Silver Linings Playbook. Harvey Weinstein proved that he is still very much on his game when this film pulled off a jaw-dropping 8 nominations, including David O. Russell for Best Director, an acting nomination in every category, and Best Film Editing. Ever since the nominations came out, Harvey has been playing hardball for the win with David O. Russell talking to every possible media outlet about how he made this movie to give hope to his bipolar son, Robert De Niro crying to Katie Couric, and Bradley Cooper meeting with Joe Biden about mental health. It is also peaking just at the right time commercially as it continues to ride its Oscar buzz to the $100 million mark. Much like Argo, this is another movie that everyone likes and will probably be top three on most Best Picture ballots. The Argo train might be too strong to derail, but I would not be surprised if Harvey Weinstein pulled off his third win in a row. He’s just that good.

Life of Pi is probably the fourth most likely. It’s been this year’s stealth contender, quietly racking up 11 nominations without a ton of buzz. It joins Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook as one of the only films with nominations for both Directing and Film Editing, which is usually a necessary combination for the Best Picture win. Though I expect Life of Pi to pick up a nice awards haul in the technical categories, I don’t think it’s strong enough for the big win. It is the only Best Picture nominee without any acting nominations, and the actors branch is by far the largest voting faction of the Academy. It’s hard to win without their support. The rest of the nominees are either too small (Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild) or have too many detractors (Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Zero Dark Thirty) to prevail with a preferential ballot.

Best Director

Michael Haneke, Amour

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

My real answer here is: I don’t know. Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow have won every pre-Oscar award that matters, and neither is nominated here. Haneke and Zeitlin are long shots, but any of the other three could conceivably take it. My gut says Ang Lee. Fox has seen an opening in the absence of Affleck, and the bulk of the campaign ads for Life of Pi have been all about Lee. It’s rare to see a director get this kind of star billing, and I think it’s working. Ang Lee is getting all of the credit for that film’s success, and the general perception seems to be that his film presented the highest degree of difficulty for the director. This might not mean anything, but Lee got the most enthusiastic applause of anyone in attendance at this year’s Oscar nominee luncheon. He definitely has the respect and clout to pull off another Oscar win. I think of the three films that have a chance here, Life of Pi is the one that is most widely considered to be a directorial achievement. In the absence of any kind of awards support for any of these guys, that’s all I’ve got.

If it’s not Lee, it’s probably Russell, even though it would be very bizarre for Silver Linings Playbook to win Director and not Picture. The problem I have is that the praise for this film has been all about the acting and the writing. However, it’s important to remember that the actors hold a lot of power here, and David O. Russell has directed seven actors to Oscar nominations in the last three years, including two winners in The Fighter and probably at least one more this year.  There is also a lot of historical overlap between Best Picture and Best Director, which suggests that voters typically just pick the same movie in both categories. It stands to reason that the movie that comes in second place to Argo could take home Best Director by default. I really think that movie is Silver Linings Playbook. And again, never underestimate Harvey Weinstein.

Spielberg could still win this, but the Lincoln train seems to have run out of steam. Like Ang Lee, he definitely has the respect to win another directing Oscar. It’s just a matter of passion, and I don’t sense it for Lincoln.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

This category is not even worth discussing. If it’s not Daniel Day-Lewis, Harvey Weinstein probably hijacked the ballot box. The more interesting question: Is this the only Oscar Lincoln wins? I’m leaning towards yes.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

This looked fairly obvious on nomination day, but now I’m not so sure. Lawrence is still the favorite. She is the Hollywood it-girl of the moment, she’s in a beloved Best Picture contender, and she has Harvey Weinstein in her corner. Her biggest problem is the emergence of Amour as a serious awards player, which culminated in Emmanuelle Riva winning the BAFTA. We now have an interesting dichotomy between the 22 year-old starlet and the 85 year-old French screen legend. Though the Weinstein publicity machine has done a good job of positioning Lawrence as the Carole Lombard/Irene Dunne of her generation, the buzz among Academy members seems to be that Riva’s performance is the more respectable and serious acting achievement of the two. It’s a close race, but I’m calling it for Lawrence because a.) Harvey rarely loses Best Actress races, even when they’re close (Meryl Streep over Viola Davis last year, Gwyneth Paltrow over Cate Blanchett in 1998) and b.) Best Actress almost always goes to young, beautiful women. The exceptions are women like Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep, who were campaigning like their lives depended on it. Riva has simply not done a lot of press for Amour due to her health and a significant language barrier, and that will unfortunately damage her chances. I think Riva will get a lot of votes, but Lawrence should prevail in the end.

Jessica Chastain is solidly in third place, and is still working the publicity circuit like she wants to win. However, the controversy over Zero Dark Thirty has made it almost impossible for her to win. I think Academy members are going to avoid that film like the plague. I do wonder if this bizarre tabloid story about Chastain’s tragic childhood that’s been going around was started by her publicity team in an attempt to grab sympathy votes. Or maybe I’m too cynical. A recent anonymous survey in Entertainment Weekly showed that Naomi Watts is shockingly pulling in some votes, but I think (and hope) that it won’t be enough. The nomination is the reward for Wallis.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin, Argo

Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

This is another wild category, and you could make a case for any of these men winning. This is the first time in Oscar history where one acting category is made up entirely of former Oscar winners, and all of them are respected enough to conceivably win another Oscar before they die. I go back and forth, but I think De Niro will be swept up in the general support for Silver Linings Playbook. He’s widely considered to be one of the greatest living actors, but he’s been working below his talent level for the past twenty years. I think Hollywood is happy to see him in highbrow fare again, and he’s certainly campaigned harder than I ever expected him to. It’s obvious that he wants to win, which is not necessarily true of all of his competition.

The man in this category with the most hardware from pre-Oscar awards shows is another Weinstein candidate: Christoph Waltz. After winning the Globe and the BAFTA, he would seem like the frontrunner. I just can’t imagine him winning for another Tarantino film so soon after Inglourious Basterds. It doesn’t help that his naysayers assert that he gives the same performance in both films. Django Unchained also really underperformed with the Academy, and it's going to be tough for him to prevail over competitors in more well-liked films. 

Tommy Lee Jones won SAG, but he didn’t bother showing up to pick up his award (ok, he allegedly had the flu, but I want to see the receipts!). I could see him winning, but again, the support for Lincoln just seems to be gone. It doesn’t help that he has completely stayed out of the campaign circuit, and it’s tough for actors to win without playing the game. Similarly, Alan Arkin and Philip Seymour Hoffman have kept a low profile and don’t seem to be all that interested in the Oscars. Arkin has a shot if Argo turns into a sweeper. Hoffman is probably the most critically acclaimed of the bunch, but the Academy did not respond well to The Master outside of the acting categories.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Master

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

This still feels like a coronation for Anne Hathaway, though she may have rubbed voters the wrong way with some poorly received acceptance speeches at the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA. Unfortunately, there isn’t enough heat behind the other nominees to justify an upset. Sally Field is probably in second, and she would be a more credible threat were she not already a two-time Oscar winner. Word on the street is that Silver Linings Playbook fans are voting for it across the board, which means that Jacki Weaver can count on a good chunk of the vote. Considering how little she does in that film and how shocking her nomination was, it would be pretty hilarious if she won. Amy Adams is now on her fourth nomination without a win, but I don’t think anyone really cares. She is the perennial filler nominee. The John Hawkes snub shows what kind of regard the Academy has for The Sessions.

Best Original Screenplay

Amour

Django Unchained

Flight

Moonrise Kingdom

Zero Dark Thirty

This is another tough one without a frontrunner. The top three are all divisive, and this would likely be the only “above the line” win any of them would get. Mark Boal won the Writers Guild award for Zero Dark Thirty, but neither Amour nor Django Unchained was eligible there. As I’ve said before, I think Zero Dark Thirty has been the target of too much controversy to get enough widespread support for any Oscar wins. The bulk of that controversy has centered on the accuracy of Boal’s screenplay. However, there is a bit of a sympathy surge for Boal, with many in the industry claiming that the attacks against him from Washington have been excessive and unfair. It could be enough to push him to the win in an open race, but I’m going with Quentin Tarantino. He’s loved and he already has the Globe and the BAFTA under his belt for Django. This is Django’s best shot at a win, and I think its supporters will come through for it here. And again: Harvey Weinstein.

Amour also has a good chance in this category, but this is not a film that has received much praise for its writing. It’s all about Haneke’s direction and Riva’s performance. I’m also a bit taken aback by how negatively many Academy members have been responding to Amour now that they’re actually bothering to watch it. To be fair, most of the voting body is over 60, and this film paints a pretty bleak picture of their near future.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

If Argo is really our Best Picture winner, it has to win something else “above the line,” and this is its best chance. Chris Terrio’s win at the Writers Guild awards solidifies Argo’s status here, but it’s not a lock. David O. Russell won the BAFTA for Silver Linings Playbook in an upset, and I could see that situation repeating itself at the Oscars. Tony Kushner won a ton of critics’ awards for Lincoln, but he was shockingly shut out by the televised awards. I thought he was as locked in as Daniel Day-Lewis, but I have been proven very wrong. Still, he could conceivably win the Oscar.

Best Animated Film

Brave

Frankenweenie

ParaNorman

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Wreck-It Ralph

This category is more competitive than it usually is thanks to the absence of a universally beloved Pixar film leading the pack. Brave was a critical and commercial disappointment by Pixar standards, but it still made money and got decent reviews. It is the frontrunner by virtue of winning the Globe and BAFTA. The Pixar name still carries a lot of inherent prestige over other animation studios, which will probably push Brave to the win. Wreck-It Ralph triumphed at the Producers Guild and Annie awards, and it was a surprise critical and commercial success. People who see it generally like it, but I’m afraid that the video game motif will cause snobby Academy members to write it off as childish. It’s still a contender for the win. Frankenweenie is the critical darling of the bunch, and it gives the Academy the chance to give an Oscar to Tim Burton. However, the movie was a box office dud, and this category usually goes to moneymakers. The other two don’t have a chance.

Best Foreign Language Film

Amour (Austria)

Kon-Tiki (Norway)

No (Chile)

A Royal Affair (Denmark)

War Witch (Canada)

Amour looks like the obvious choice, but there is a frontrunner curse in this category. It’s important to keep in mind that this is one of the only categories that is not voted on by the Academy at large. Voters must attend special screenings of the films and prove that they’ve seen all of the nominees. The result is a voting body that is usually quite old and with very conservative tastes. Even foreign language films with widespread Academy support have lost this before (Amelie and Pan’s Labyrinth). The Best Picture nod would lead me to stick with Amour, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a handsomely mounted period piece like Kon-Tiki or A Royal Affair upset.

Best Documentary Feature

5 Broken Cameras

The Gatekeepers

How to Survive a Plague

The Invisible War

Searching for Sugar Man

There is also a frontrunner curse in this category, but the Academy at large is allowed to vote for the Documentary winner this year for the first time ever. Searching for Sugar Man is the popular choice, though I wonder if it’s too light to win. The rest of these films grapple with very serious issues like AIDS and sexual assault in the military, while Sugar Man is about two fans’ quest to locate their favorite singer. Then again, maybe the film’s levity is actually an asset in contrast to the heavier competition. If the Academy opts for something with more gravitas, it will probably be The Gatekeepers – a film about Israel’s secret security force that has been gaining a lot of last minute buzz.

Best Film Editing

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

This award typically goes to the Best Picture frontrunner, though the bizarre win last year for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo upset that trend. Argo should take this in a walk. Zero Dark Thirty might have been a strong challenger had the torture controversy not boiled over and tarnished the film’s reputation.

Best Cinematography

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

For the technical categories, “best” usually means “most.” Life of Pi is definitely the flashiest nominee, and it looks likely to follow in the footsteps of Avatar and Hugo to win this one. Roger Deakins’ showy and often beautiful work in Skyfall is a possible spoiler, as the man has been nominated 10 times without a win. Unfortunately, the “overdue” card rarely pays off in the technical categories.

Best Production Design

Anna Karenina

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Les Miserables

This could really go to any of the nominees besides The Hobbit. I’m going with Les Miserables mostly because it won BAFTA, but it’s also a very grandiose physical production with lots of fabulous sets. The same is also true of Anna Karenina, which won the Art Directors Guild award. However, I am betting against that one simply because the film isn’t as well-liked as Les Miserables is. Life of Pi hasn’t picked up many awards for production design, but I’m tempted to pick it because Avatar, Alice in Wonderland, and Hugo were the last three winners in this category. For these big CGI epics, production design often gets conflated with visual effects. I really wouldn’t be surprised to see it win. Lincoln’s production design has been unanimously praised for its period accuracy, but I don’t think it’s flashy enough to win unless the film miraculously wins Best Picture.

Best Costume Design

Anna Karenina

Lincoln

Mirror Mirror

Les Miserables

Snow White and the Huntsman

Opulence always wins in this category, so I would not bet against Anna Karenina. Both Snow White movies have a shot to upset. Mirror Mirror was legendary costume designer Eiko Ishioka’s last film before her death, so there might be a sentimental tide in her favor. The costumes are certainly lavish enough to justify it. Snow White and the Huntsman has Colleen Atwood, who has a strong track record at the Oscars. The two Best Picture nominees here are probably a bit too drab to win.

Best Original Score

Anna Karenina

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

This is another open category, and I could see anything but Anna Karenina winning (though that is my favorite of the nominees). The most sweeping, epic score is usually the safest bet, so Life of Pi looks like a winner. Argo could win in a show of the Academy’s general support for the film, but I don’t know if the music is memorable enough. Skyfall won the BAFTA in a bit of an upset, and this is Thomas Newman’s 11^th nomination without a win. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it win. Lincoln is very possibly the legendary John Williams’ last cinematic score, and he is an Oscar darling. It’s one of his less memorable scores, but it’s stately and majestic enough to feel like a winner. This is one of the categories that I feel the least confident about.

Best Original Song

Catching Ice – “Before My Time”

Life of Pi – “Pi’s Lullaby”

Les Miserables – “Suddenly”

Skyfall – “Skyfall”

Ted – “Everybody Needs a Best Friend”

I would be absolutely shocked if Adele lost. The rest of the nominees don’t make any sense. Next stop: EGOT!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Hitchcock

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

I’m going with Les Miserables here because it’s the only one of these films that the Academy membership seems to actually like. The Hobbit is definitely the showiest nominee, and two of the three Lord of the Rings films won this category. However, I think there’s a bit of Peter Jackson fatigue in the industry, and that series is probably done winning Oscars. It’s laughable that the absurd prosthetics in Hitchcock made the cut over the much more sophisticated makeup in Lincoln.

Best Sound Mixing

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Les Miserables

Skyfall

This is always tough to call because the Academy at large doesn’t know the first thing about sound. The loudest movie usually wins, but musicals do well in this category. The Universal PR machine has done a good job of emphasizing the challenges Team Les Miz faced in recording and mixing all of the live vocals in that film, and I think they’ll be rewarded for it. Any of the rest besides Lincoln could upset. When in doubt, voters often pick Best Picture nominees that made it into both sound categories, which bodes well for Argo and Life of Pi. Popular action flicks also have a strong track record in the sound categories, which makes Skyfall a strong contender.

Best Sound Editing

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

Any of Argo, Life of Pi, or Skyfall could win this one. Life of Pi seems to be the consensus choice, and I don’t have much of a reason to go against that. This is another category that the average Academy member has no clue how to judge, so they go with something loud or a Best Picture nominee. Life of Pi is both.

Best Visual Effects

The Avengers

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi

Prometheus

Snow White and the Huntsman

Never bet against the Best Picture nominee in this category, even if the other nominees are flashier. In this case, Life of Pi probably has the most elaborate visual effects work of the year, and it’s much more loved as a film than any of the other nominees. It’s one of the easiest calls of the night.

2013 Oscar Predictions

I'm baaaaaaaaack.

And now the moment you have all been waiting for has finally arrived: I will predict the 2012 Academy Award nominees in the categories that people actually care about. If this seems early, that’s because it is. The Academy is announcing two weeks earlier this year for reasons that are beyond me. The average voter has a hard enough time seeing enough movies to fill out a ballot, and this year it’s going to be even worse. This is also the first year that Oscar voting has ever been done online, which has naturally been a disaster for a group whose membership is predominantly over the age of 60. I fear that these two factors combined will yield some screwy results, and my accuracy will probably be lower than the last couple of years. However, I feel like I have a fairly good idea of how these will pan out. We’ll see what happens tomorrow! Overall, the Oscar race this year is really fun. Most of the big contenders are legitimate box office hits, and the acting and directing contenders are way more A-list than usual. If the nominations turn out like I think they will, this could be the most star-studded and glamorous Oscar ceremony in a long time.

Best Picture

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Les Miserables

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

And between zero and three of:

Amour

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Moonrise Kingdom

After successfully confounding Oscar pundits last year with the floating Best Picture nominee system, the Academy has chosen to continue this nonsensical practice. There will be between five and ten nominees depending on how many films command more than 5% of the total vote for Best Picture. Last year proved that there’s no way to guess how many that will be, so I won’t bother with that. I think there will be at least seven, and I wouldn’t be shocked if there were actually ten. Last year seemed fairly weak, yet there were still nine nominees. This year has been full of films that people genuinely love, and there isn’t an overwhelming favorite.

Let’s start with what we know. Lincoln looks like a winner at this point, so there’s no way that misses. Zero Dark Thirty has been the critical consensus choice of the year and should be a big player even if I think it’s ultimately too controversial to win. Argo is all about Hollywood saving the world, and the Academy has been receptive to Ben Affleck’s films thus far. This will be his year to make the Best Picture cut. Les Miserables took a critical beating, but audiences love it. This was basically guaranteed a Best Picture nomination the moment the film was announced, and the critical reception wasn’t bad enough to derail that train. Silver Linings Playbook was an audience hit at the Toronto festival and has pretty substantial critical backing as well. I’m surprised the box office gross hasn’t been higher, but Harvey Weinstein is behind it, and I would never bet against him. He’s also pushing Django Unchained, which is another audience favorite and a surprise box office smash. I think Inglourious Basterds marked a turning point in the Academy’s relationship with Quentin Tarantino, so I expect voters to respond well to this. Life of Pi has been lost in the shuffle of the other end-of-year prestige releases, but it has vocal fans and was another surprisingly strong box office performer. Ang Lee is one of the most respected directors in the biz, and it’s worth noting that the last two 3D spectacles from Oscar winning directors both pulled off Best Picture nominations (Avatar and Hugo.)

Here’s where things get dicey. Beasts of the Southern Wild fits the mold of many recent Best Picture nominees: the breakout Sundance hit that wound up as one of the best-reviewed American films of the year. I fear that this will be buried under all the massive studio prestige releases, and I really think it needed to perform better than it did with the end-of-year critics’ awards in order to be a surefire nominee. However, it is a passion pick that has a contingent of vocal supporters. Fox Searchlight has a strong history of pushing little movies into big Oscar categories. I’m hesitantly predicting it to get the nomination. Moonrise Kingdom was the only American film to emerge from Cannes unscathed, and it’s Wes Anderson’s best-reviewed film in over ten years. It was also one of the big art house box office success stories of the year. In a weaker year, I think this would be an obvious Best Picture nominee, but in a field as crowded as this, I’d be surprised if it pulled off the nomination. At the same time, this keeps popping up on end-of-year critics’ lists and pulled off Best Picture nominations from the Producers Guild and the Golden Globes. I would say it’s probably in ninth place. Amour is an intriguing option that I could really be underestimating. After winning big at Cannes, this became the most talked about foreign language release of the year. Michael Haneke has come to be accepted as the king of European art house in the US, and this is his most accessible film ever. Sony Pictures Classics has done an excellent job of campaigning Amour as a legitimate Best Picture contender. It even became the first foreign language film since Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon to win Best Picture from the LA Film Critics Association and had a superb showing at BAFTA. Ultimately, it’s just really tough for foreign fare to gain traction in this category, and the movie might be too depressing to pull it off. I would definitely not be shocked to see it in the Best Picture category.

There are some fringe contenders here. The Master is one that puzzles me. As Paul Thomas Anderson’s long-awaited follow-up to There Will Be Blood, this was one of the most anticipated and hyped releases of the year. It had deafening buzz coming out of the Venice festival and has had a very strong showing on end-of-year critics’ lists. However, it proved to be polarizing outside of the festival bubble. It’s a very cold and alienating film. It also bombed at the box office in a year where a lot of prestige releases really took off with audiences. I just can’t imagine the Academy embracing a movie like this. This is another Weinstein vehicle, but he doesn’t seem to be pushing it as much as SLP and Django. The film does have its supporters, and there could be enough of them to propel this to a nomination, but I don’t see it. The Impossible is another one that really puzzles me. It seems right up the Academy’s alley, but most awards groups have largely ignored it outside of Naomi Watts’ performance. But then you have Angelina Jolie hosting screenings of this at her house and Reese Witherspoon writing an open letter expressing how much the film moved her. It’s a classic inspirational tearjerker with impressive techs and a real-life connection (although they literally white-washed the story.) I can see this pulling off an Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close-esque Best Picture nod without many other nominations. I think that about covers it, unless the old fogies decide to rally behind The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, which is not outside the realm of possibility. Skyfall also has some buzz and a Producers Guild nod. It would be awesome if it could sneak into Best Picture, but the Academy is snobby and has never embraced Bond before. It’s odd that the expanded Best Picture was basically created because The Dark Knight was snubbed, yet The Dark Knight Rises doesn’t have a chance in hell of making it.

Best Director

Ben Affleck, Argo

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Alt: Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

This is a tough and crowded category with a ton of big names vying for five spots. After missing out for War Horse last year, Spielberg looks set to receive his seventh directing nomination. Lincoln is his most acclaimed film since Saving Private Ryan (or maybe even Schindler’s List), so he’s looking good for his third directing Oscar. If anyone can pull that off, it’s Spielberg. His two strongest competitors also have political films. Kathryn Bigelow came back from her history making Oscar win for The Hurt Locker with another unanimously raved film about the War on Terror. She’s come under fire recently for the factuality of Zero Dark Thirty, but I expect her peers to come through for her and nominate her again. She is the president of the Academy directors branch after all. Ben Affleck has been working his way up to a directing nomination for the past five years, with both Gone Baby Gone and The Town scoring major Oscar nominations. The directors branch has a history of awarding actors turned directors (Clint Eastwood, Kevin Costner, MEL GIBSON), and they will almost certainly follow suit with Affleck. He’s even a strong contender for the win.

Things are decidedly less predictable after that. As I mentioned before, Ang Lee is revered among his peers, and he’s been highly praised for the visual achievement of Life of Pi. James Cameron even called it the best use of 3D ever, which is no small praise coming from the self-proclaimed “king of the world.” Though the buzz for Life of Pi has faded considerably, I think Lee will have enough support for a nomination. He has the Directors Guild, the Globes, and BAFTA to back him up. I assume that one of Harvey Weinstein’s candidates will make it here, and I am settling on Tarantino because Django Unchained really took off right around the time that ballots were due. Weinstein has always been Tarantino’s greatest champion, so I suspect that there has been some behind the scenes wheeling and dealing to make this happen. Tarantino has also become very respected in the industry, as seen in the almost reverential treatment his fellow directors gave him in this year’s Hollywood Reporter Oscar roundtable. The Globe and BAFTA nominations bode well, even though he missed with the DGA.

Tom Hooper for Les Miserables can’t be counted out, though it seems that most Oscar prognosticators want to. Most of the film’s detractors have (rightly) blamed all of its faults on Hooper, and the directors branch has been unkind to musical directors for the past 30 years. However, Hooper is an Oscar winner with a movie that a lot of people really love. He wouldn’t be the first guy to overcome bad reviews and get a directing nomination for a popular movie. The Directors Guild nomination is telling. If he makes it, then look out for Les Miz as a possible contender for the Best Picture win. David O. Russell seems like he should be a big contender for Silver Linings Playbook, but he hasn’t gotten the big nominations that his competitors have. The movie also just isn’t as showy as his competitors’ films. However, the Academy already welcomed him to the club for The Fighter, and traditional Hollywood dramadies often get directing nominations if the movie is popular enough. SLP appears to have strong industry support, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him nominated.

There are a couple of contenders for the auteur-ist set. Paul Thomas Anderson seemed like an obvious nominee for The Master coming out of the Venice fest, but his buzz was snatched away by bigger directors with more accessible movies at the end of the year. It remains to be seen if There Will Be Blood was a fluke, or if the Academy has really and truly welcomed him. He has some big critics’ award wins (LA being the most notable), and I guess the directors branch is the likeliest group to really “get” The Master. It’s possible, but I wouldn’t count on it. Michael Haneke for Amour is another fringe contender. The directors branch occasionally branches out of the Hollywood bubble and recognizes big names from world cinema (Pedro Almodovar and Krzysztof Kieslowski in the last twenty years), and Haneke certainly has the prestige and clout to join that list. Ultimately I think this year is a bit too A-list for him to break through, but it’s not out of the question. The BAFTA nomination shows that there is some support for him in the industry.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Denzel Washington, Flight

Alt: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

I’m confident that I have the top six correct, but I go back and forth over who misses the cut. Daniel Day-Lewis is the only one who is 100% not missing. He is about to steamroll his way to Oscar number three. I keep waiting for backlash to happen over Day-Lewis becoming the first man to win three lead acting Oscars, but there just doesn’t seem to be a viable alternative. I guess there was never a way that Daniel Day-Lewis as Abraham Lincoln was not going to be showered with awards.

I don’t even know who is the second most likely. I guess Bradley Cooper? It’s weird to think of him as an Oscar nominee, but the writing is on the wall. His reviews are good enough and he has been working the circuit. It pays to butter up voters and prove that you want it, and he has certainly done that. Headlining a Best Picture nominee helps his chances too, even if his costar has most of the buzz. Hugh Jackman looks fairly set as well. He may not have much of a pedigree in the film world, but he’s charming and people love him. He hosted the Oscars for God’s sake. Beneath the action star veneer, Jackman has always been a song and dance man dying for a big part in a movie musical. He didn’t get raves for Les Miz, but he definitely got a strong pass for pulling off a tough part. If nothing else, he has the “I SANG EVERYTHING LIVE, DAMMIT!” narrative going for him that’s been pushed by Universal’s PR team for months.

Denzel Washington does have legitimate raves, but it’s for a movie nobody really cares about that much. Then again, we are talking about two-time Oscar winning beloved A-list movie star Denzel Washington with his best reviews in ten years. Flight played well with audiences and took in a decent box office gross, even if it’s been pretty much forgotten by now. Robert Zemeckis at the helm gives it some Oscar prestige, and Washington plays one of Oscar’s favorite archetypes: the raging but ultimately repentant alcoholic. Speaking of movies nobody really cares about, I have John Hawkes in the last spot for The Sessions. That film was a big Sundance hit, and he looked like a possible Oscar winner at the time. However, the movie totally disappeared in the midst of the end-of-year prestige releases. Box office was poor for a movie with that kind of festival buzz. In the end, I think his part is just too Oscar baity to ignore. He plays a man paralyzed from the neck down living in an iron lung who wants to lose his virginity before he dies. And it’s based on a true story! If you’re wiping your eyes reading that summary, you’re probably an Academy member. Hawkes may not be as famous as the competition, but he is a respected character actor who pulled off a surprise nomination for Winter’s Bone. He’s just the kind of sturdy, humble workhorse doing excellent work that the actors branch likes to reward.

What to do with Joaquin Phoenix? He gave the most raved male performance of the year after Daniel Day-Lewis. He has Golden Globe and BAFTA nominations and the LA Film Critics Association award. He has Harvey Weinstein! I really think he’s going to miss because he’s kind of a dick. You can get away with refusing to play the campaign game if the performance is strong enough. Mo’Nique won an Oscar without participating in the dog and pony show. I don’t think you can overcome completely trashing the Academy and the Oscars in public the way Phoenix did while doing press for The Master. As much as I’m sure Harvey Weinstein wishes he could spin that away, I don’t think it’s possible to piss on the establishment and come back unless you are Marlon Brando. I don’t get the impression that Phoenix was ever particularly well-liked anyway, and his recent behavior doesn’t help his cause. The snub from the Screen Actors Guild was telling. That said, many believe that his work speaks for itself and will probably vote for him anyway. We’ll see if it’s enough.

There aren’t really many more feasible options here. Richard Gere got a Globe nod for Arbitrage, but I think that’s the extent of his awards run. As unlikable as Joaquin Phoenix is, at least he’s been nominated before. Richard Gere isn’t even allowed to present at the Oscars anymore. There is of course a parade of failed Oscar bait in this category like Anthony Hopkins as Alfred Hitchcock in Hitchcock and Bill Murray as FDR in Hyde Park on Hudson, but I will spare both men the embarrassment of dwelling on those films.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Alt: Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Sadly, substantial female roles in the big end-of-year prestige releases were sparse. The good news is that Oscar voters have been forced to consider art house and indie releases to fill out their ballots, which is pretty exciting. Our frontrunner would probably be Jennifer Lawrence. Lawrence leveraged her Oscar nomination for gritty indie Winter’s Bone into key roles in two big franchises. She catapulted onto the A-list this year with great reviews and stellar box office for The Hunger Games and then received rapturous raves at the Toronto fest for her work in Silver Linings Playbook. The girl is only 22, which is very young for a Best Actress winner, but she is just in the right place at the right time. It helps that she is beautiful and charming, and she has joined costar Cooper in playing the campaign game like a pro. If anyone can stop her, it’s probably Jessica Chastain. I predicted in last year’s Oscar post that she would be back for another nomination soon, and here we are already! It’s a performance that has drawn comparisons to Jodie Foster in Silence of the Lambs and Claire Danes in “Homeland,” which both obviously bode well for her award prospects. Chastain oddly feels just as new to the scene as Jennifer Lawrence does, although she is between 10 and 15 years older (depending on who you ask. Side note: I love how evasive she is about her age. How Old Hollywood of her!) Also like Lawrence, she is really beautiful and knows how to work a room. It could be really close, but ultimately I think the controversy over Zero Dark Thirty will hurt Chastain’s chances. With some calling her the Meryl Streep of her generation, I have a feeling she’ll win her Oscar soon enough.

The rest of the field is kind of wild. Marion Cotillard avoided the fate of most foreign Oscar nominees and has firmly planted herself on the A-list by becoming Hollywood’s go-to foreign femme fatale. She even had major roles in two recent Best Picture nominees (Inception and Midnight in Paris.) Rust & Bone marks her return to French language fare as well as her first leading role since La vie en rose. The movie is small and weird (Cotillard loses her legs to an orca and then has legless sex!), but Marion Cotillard has enough clout to pull off a nomination for an obscure foreign film. She’s been campaigning hard for the nomination and it paid off at the Globes, BAFTA, and SAG. I see no reason why the Academy won’t follow suit. Naomi Watts became the next big thing after her breakout performance in Mulholland Drive, but a string of flop Oscar bait made her the girl you call when Nicole Kidman is busy. I thought The Impossible looked like another flop for Naomi, but after a tear-filled standing ovation at the Toronto festival and a slew of big name endorsements for her performance and the film it looks like she is in. She has certainly latched on to her moment back in the spotlight and is working the circuit harder than almost anyone else in this category. She literally does nothing but scream and cry in this film, but I love and good Oscar comeback and dearest Naomi is a sentimental favorite of mine. SAG and the Globes bit, but BAFTA ignored her. Maybe it’s because she has shunned her British heritage and pretends to be Australian, but it’s still a cause for concern.

The last spot is tough. I am tentatively going with Emmanuelle Riva for Amour, though I have a hard time seeing the Academy nominating two French language performances in the same year. Her biggest problem is that she is a complete unknown in Hollywood who is not doing any press for the film. However, Academy members are allegedly really responding to the film, and she is the heart and soul of it. She showed that she was on the radar when she won Best Actress from the LA Film Critics and the National Society of Film Critics, but her BAFTA nomination at the expense of Naomi Watts sealed the deal for me. The Academy’s preferential balloting system favors passion picks, and I can see Riva’s name at the top of enough ballots to push her to a nomination. Sony Pictures Classic has run a great campaign for Amour, and I believe that enough people have seen it. At 85, Riva would be the oldest Best Actress nominee ever, which is a story that keeps coming up in industry buzz. This is my riskiest choice, but I think it will pay off.

I almost want to assume the worst and bump Riva for Helen Mirren. Fox Searchlight really dropped the bomb on Hitchcock. They thought they had a Best Picture contender on their hands, but it wound up pleasing neither critics nor audiences. Most critics agreed that Anthony Hopkins wasn’t as good as Toby Jones in the crappy HBO Hitchcock movie. Only Dame Helen survived in tact and managed nominations from the Globes, BAFTA and SAG. She has allegedly received applause for her really juicy monologue at Academy screenings. Everyone loves Helen Mirren, and she makes total sense as a lazy filler nominee. I think she’ll miss out to the passion picks, but never underestimate the Academy’s love for old British women being cheeky.

Fox Searchlight’s other pony in the race is Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild. She looked like a strong contender from Sundance on, but she failed to register at any of the big end-of-year awards. The problem is that she is 9 years old. Children getting Oscar nominations is nothing new, but she would be the youngest ever in the Best Actress category. It makes sense to me that fans of the film will put her at number one in Best Actress as well. She is that movie in a way that most other actresses from Best Picture contenders are not. The performance is definitely strong enough on its own terms, but it just seems like the actors branch will have a hard time taking her seriously. A number of Academy members have publicly supported her - most notably Oprah, and we all know better than to bet against Oprah. I wouldn’t be shocked if she snuck in anyway. It would be crazy to have both her and Riva as the youngest and oldest nominees ever in the same category. The only other feasible option is Rachel Weisz for The Deep Blue Sea, who won the New York Film Critics award and was nominated by the Globes. Ultimately, that movie is too small and arty to really catch on, but she is a glamorous Oscar winner who happens to be married to James Bond. She could pull it off, but it would be an upset.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin, Argo

Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Alt: Javier Bardem, Skyfall

 I am 99.9% sure that this isn’t right, but I don’t know how to fix it. Give me your thoughts if you feel compelled. The only one of these I feel good about is Tommy Lee Jones, who is probably our winner. There might be a scene at the Academy Awards if Leo DiCaprio loses another Oscar to Tommy Lee Jones, but it just makes sense. I feel pretty good about Philip Seymour Hoffman as well, if only because they’ve given him lazy filler nominations in the past and this is his most acclaimed performance since he won for Capote. I don’t think The Master is the Academy’s cup of tea, but the fact that Hoffman was the only person from that cast to get a SAG nomination is telling.

I have a pretty strong feeling that Alan Arkin is in, even though he doesn’t do a lot in that film. If Argo is a Best Picture contender, someone from that cast has to get in. Both of Ben Affleck’s other directorial efforts earned acting nominations. Arkin is the closest thing to a standout in the large and impressive cast, and the Academy enjoys nominating crotchety old man comic relief performances in this category. Hell, Alan Arkin already won an Oscar for this very performance in Little Miss Sunshine. He makes so much sense on paper, especially with his Globe, BAFTA and SAG nominations. Robert De Niro seems like the one from this group who could miss, but I believe that the Academy will want to reward him for returning to respectability after two decades of garbage. He is a living legend and a two-time Oscar winner, after all. The Globes snubbed him, but that’s probably because he pissed all over them in his acceptance speech for his lifetime achievement award a few years back. In the end, I think the overall support for SLP coupled with De Niro’s reputation will pull him in.

Django is my cause of grief here. There are too many strong supporting performances and absolutely no consensus over who was the best. I fear they may cancel each other out, but my gut tells me that someone from Django is getting in. I’m going with Waltz, even though that gives me a category with five former Oscar winners. He basically gives a leading performance. He is in many ways the heart of Django Unchained, and we miss him as much as Django does when he exits the film. It’s unfair to pit Waltz and Leonardo DiCaprio against each other when Waltz has twice the screen-time of DiCaprio.  DiCaprio makes a ton of sense as well. He gives the classic villainous performance that typically does well in Oscar’s Supporting Actor category. It’s a complete transformation for him, and it is not exactly a secret that he is hungry for an Oscar. If he makes it, he is a threat for the win. Both Waltz and DiCaprio got in at the Globes and neither made it at SAG. Waltz made it in at BAFTA, which is what I think will happen at the Oscars. They both also have to contend with Samuel L. Jackson, who also has great reviews and a contingent of supporters.

There are several others who could sneak in. Javier Bardem has BAFTA and SAG nominations for Skyfall. I hesitate to include him because no one has ever been nominated for acting in a Bond film, but there is something classier and more prestigious about Skyfall than the average Bond outing. It also helps that Bardem is revered among his peers, and I mentioned earlier that villains do well in Supporting Actor. I’m not sure how much of an advantage being a respected Oscar winner is for Bardem when he’s competing against Tommy Lee Jones, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Robert De Niro. It’s a crowded field, and it might be too stacked with conventional Oscar-y roles for something as wild as a Bond villain to make it. I think he would need to be as undeniable as Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight to overcome that kind of genre bias, and I don’t think he is.

The most likely non-Oscar nominee to break through is Matthew McConaughey for Magic Mike. I know it sounds crazy, but he had a really great year and has some prestigious awards under his belt. Both the New York Film Critics Circle and the National Society of Film Critics recognized him, which is a huge deal for an actor in something as populist as Magic Mike. I think it’s incredibly bizarre than he won highbrow critics’ awards but didn’t get nominated by SAG or the Globes. I want to put him in over Robert De Niro, but I just don’t think the Academy is going to take that movie seriously. I would love for him to upset. I also wouldn’t rule out Dwight Henry for Beasts of the Southern Wild. He won the LA Film Critics award despite being a complete unknown without a ton of buzz. He’s been overshadowed by Wallis in the general reception of the film, but I can see the film’s supporters pushing him to a nomination. I can also see Ewan McGregor making it out of nowhere for The Impossible. He’s well-liked and connected, and he has never been nominated before. Angelina Jolie has been leading the campaign to push him, though most of the film’s attention has gone to Naomi Watts. He actually has way more to do than she does, and I’m surprised that he hasn’t gotten much buzz. In my dreams, Eddie Redmayne is a contender for Les Miserables, but I think I’m on that train by myself.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Master

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Alt: Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

This category is bleak. Anne Hathaway is steamrolling her way to victory due to both Les Miz and her acclaimed work in The Dark Knight Rises. I accepted a long time ago that Anne Hathaway was destined to win an Oscar, so let’s just get it over with now. She hasn’t been shy about her insatiable desire for an Oscar. The only woman who could unseat her is Sally Field. It’s so bizarre that Sally Field has two Oscars, and it would be even more bizarre for her to win three. Therefore, it would be fairly shocking for Field to triumph even if Lincoln totally sweeps. I would kind of love it though. The only other set in stone nominee is Helen Hunt for The Sessions, even though nobody cares about that movie. There just aren’t many other options. She is respected in the industry even though she has done nothing of note after her Oscar win other than a short “directing” career. This woman managed to win four Emmys for “Mad About You” of all things, after all. I think Hollywood is, for whatever reason, glad to have her back.

Perhaps it’s wishful thinking, but I really think Nicole Kidman is in. You just can’t argue with the Globe and SAG nominations. The problem is that the movie is garbage and I cannot imagine an Academy member actually sitting through it. She pees on Zac Efron and has psychic sex with John Cusack. The Paperboy was the laughing stock of Cannes, but Nicole got great individual reviews and was commended for stretching herself. She definitely wants the nomination and has mounted an impressive self-campaign. She’s admired enough to convince voters to at least check out the movie, and in this barren field I think she will command enough support for a nomination. I’m giving the final spot to Amy Adams, just because she makes a lot of sense on paper. She is a well-liked three-time Oscar nominee in an acclaimed film and has two big critics’ awards and nominations from the Globes and BAFTA for this performance. The big problem I see is that she really doesn’t do anything of note in The Master. Where is the Oscar clip? I can answer that question for the other four women I mentioned, but Adams is so overshadowed by her male costars that she never has a moment to herself. I am also taken aback by her SAG snub. When SAG doesn’t nominate a buzzed performance in a film they’ve obviously seen, it usually means something. In a different field, I’d have Adams out. I just don’t think the alternatives are strong enough to replace her. She is dangerously drifting into Glenn Close territory with yet another Oscar nomination that she has no chance of turning into a win.

It takes some searching to find possible spoilers. Maggie Smith took Amy Adams’ spot in the SAG lineup for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. The movie was a sleeper hit, and God knows everyone loves Maggie Smith playing herself. She is on a roll with back-to-back Emmy wins for “Downton Abbey.” I would put her in over Adams if not for her bizarre BAFTA snub. That movie is tailor made for that organization, and Maggie Smith is a five-time BAFTA winner. If they didn’t bite, I doubt the Academy will. If the Academy is hell-bent on having a Dame at the ceremony, Judi Dench could make it for Skyfall. She has some juicy material, and the movie is all about her in a strange way. She’s also going blind and may never act again. As much as the Academy loves Judi Dench, again I think that they’re too snobby to nominate Bond in any major categories. It’s also strange that Dench didn’t get a SAG nomination and Bardem did. Maybe she really isn’t on the radar. She got a BAFTA nomination for this, but as this is her 27^th BAFTA nod (to put it into perspective, she only has six Oscar nods), I don’t think it means anything. They nominated her just last year for doing literally nothing in My Week with Marilyn. I doubt either of the Dames would bother showing up at the Oscars this year anyway.

The only non-Oscar nominee on the radar is Ann Dowd for Compliance. She has turned heads by launching a completely self-funded campaign without any help from her studio. Her performance was acclaimed, and she has a major critics’ win to her name (National Board of Review.) The story is inspiring, and I can see the actors branch responding to it. Demian Bichir and Jacki Weaver pulled off surprise nominations for little-seen movies in the past two years. So why not Ann Dowd in this deserted field? The problem in Dowd’s case is that her movie is uncomfortable to sit through. I can handle a lot as a viewer, but I had difficulty making it to the end of Compliance. Dowd is terrific in the film, and it would be a deserved nomination. But if Shame and We Need to Talk About Kevin were too uncomfortable for Academy members to watch for very buzzed performances last year, then I don’t think they will embrace Compliance for a complete no-name.

Best Original Screenplay

Amour

Django Unchained

The Master

Moonrise Kingdom

Zero Dark Thirty

Alt: Looper

As I’ve said many times before, the writers branch is the one of the wildest of the Academy’s voting factions. That said, this year seems oddly predictable for them. Zero Dark Thirty is the frontrunner of the moment, though I wonder how the upcoming Senate investigation will affect its chances. Mark Boal already won for The Hurt Locker, so I can see the Academy passing him over this time. Either way, he’ll be nominated. Tarantino will once again be his biggest competition. Had Tarantino not already won an Oscar, I would be more inclined to bet against Boal repeating. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Django prevail here. The other sure thing is Wes Anderson for Moonrise Kingdom. As I said before, this is his best-reviewed film since The Royal Tenenbaums, and that was indeed his last film to get a screenwriting nomination. He very well might be a threat for the win if Moonrise Kingdom is a Best Picture nominee.

Despite the gradually cooling reception for The Master, this is the nomination I am most confident that it will get. The writers branch has been very kind to Paul Thomas Anderson since Boogie Nights, and I would be shocked if he missed this year. Given the writers branch’s inclination to go arty and foreign, I think Amour is the fifth nominee. There appears to be widespread industry support for the film, and this would be a nice way to recognize Michael Haneke (since we all know it’s going to lose Best Foreign Language Film because that category is always terrible.)

Looper is the likeliest spoiler, and it has been recognized fairly consistently for its screenplay all awards season long. I think it misses because the writers branch is fairly elitist, and sci-fi is really not their thing. However, they have awarded some slightly more sophisticated sci-fi in recent years (Inception and District 9), which bodes well for Looper. Maybe it will finally break the Joseph Gordon Levitt curse! (for those of you playing at home, that refers to the buzzed screenplays of both (500) Days of Summer and 50/50 ultimately being snubbed by the Academy. Obviously JGL is the link between those two films.) That just about sums it up for me. Flight is a possibility by virtue of being a Writers Guild nominee, but I just don’t think anyone cares or loves it that much. The Cabin in the Woods got some attention from critics’ awards groups, but the Academy is definitely waaaaay too snobby for that.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Alt: The Perks of Being a Wallflower

This one also seems pretty easy. The writers branch is often not kind to sweeping epics or Spielberg, but the Lincoln screenplay has snob appeal thanks to Pulitzer- and Tony-winning playwright Tony Kushner’s name on it. I think he wins even if Lincoln loses Best Picture. Silver Linings Playbook and Argo are two Best Picture contenders that are right up the writers branch’s alley. Neither is missing.

Life of Pi is an interesting case, as the script has been the most criticized element of the film. However, the novel was considered to be unadaptable. I think the writers branch will acknowledge the skill and hard work that went into pulling it off. It’s also worth noting that acclaimed literary adaptations are a writers branch favorite. It follows that we’ll at least have one indie pick in here, and Beasts certainly fits the bill as a Best Picture contender with a Sundance pedigree. The Perks of Being a Wallflower could realistically replace either of the films I mentioned despite not having a shot at any other category. Stephen Chbosky adapted his own acclaimed novel, and the film benefits from positive buzz because it was a hell of a lot better than anyone thought it was going to be. It keeps popping up on critics’ end-of-year lists and got a Writers Guild nomination.

The other Best Picture contender in this field is Les Miserables, which is almost certainly not getting nominated. Though the adaptation was a big and impressive undertaking, the writers branch has not embraced stage musical adaptations recently. The Sessions would make a lot of sense here had the public at large embraced the film the same way the Sundance audience did. If The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel makes it, don’t say I didn’t warn you.