2016 Academy Award Nominations Predictions MANIFESTO

Furiosa coming for OSCAH GLORY

Best Picture
The Big Short 
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight 
Between 0 and 3 of:
Brooklyn
Room
Straight Outta Compton

As a reminder, the 5% rule still stands. We get at least 5 but no more than 10 nominees depending on how many films receive more than 5% of the number one votes for Best Picture. Since we started this system, we have gotten either 8 or 9 nominees. The trend may continue, though it's possible we could wind up with less. It's a strange year. The pundits will tell you the frontrunner of the moment is Spotlight, but it's hanging on by a thread. Spotlight makes a lot of sense on paper. It's an old-school issue drama (this time about the Catholic priest sex abuse scandal) with a cast of respected thespians playing hardworking Americans using their ingenuity to fight injustice. It's All the President's Men for the 21st century. Spotlight largely dominated the year-end critics' awards, yet Hollywood seems slightly less enthused. I have seen more than one anonymous Academy member dismiss it as a well-directed "Law and Order: SVU" episode. It's underperformed in nominations with most of the televised awards groups, and it already left the Golden Globes empty handed. Open Road is a new studio, and Spotlight is their first time at the awards rodeo. I don't think they can pull off the Best Picture win. But who can?

After the Golden Globes, The Revenant seems like a possible winner. Alejandro González Iñárritu is fresh off of winning three Oscars for Birdman and is probably the most in-demand filmmaker in Hollywood today. His latest is a technically ambitious epic starring one of the biggest movie stars in the world in a performance that will likely win him an Oscar. Unlike Spotlight, The Revenant has big studio money behind it (Fox) and is already proving to be a force at the box office. But the movie is divisive. Many opinion makers believe that it's a beautifully directed film that doesn't have a coherent script, and it's brutal, violent, and difficult to sit through. It's a bit bleak for a Best Picture winner.

And then there is The Big Short, the ensemble comedy about the financial crisis from Brad Pitt's Plan B production company - an increasingly prominent Oscar player. It's an easily digestible message movie with very Hollywood liberal politics and a cast of beloved Oscar winners and nominees. The Big Short bypassed the festival circuit and came on as a late player into the awards race, and it's done very well with the guilds and BAFTA. This definitely feels like a movie that can build buzz and win the big prize. Plus, Kirstie Alley tweeted about how much she loved it, and her favorites ALWAYS win. Write it down.

That runs the gamut of potential Best Picture winners, but there are some other safe bets for the nomination lineup. The Martian was the feel-good box office smash of the fall, and it marked Ridley Scott's return to form after ten years of directing dreck. It also won a smattering of Golden Globes because Fox bribed the Hollywood Foreign Press Association into pretending it was a comedy. There's always room at the Oscars for big studio hits that are actually made for adults. I think there's also room for Mad Max: Fury Road (editorial aside - THE BEST FILM OF THE LAST FIVE YEARS OMG). It's odd to think about the Academy abandoning its middlebrow snobbery to recognize a genre film (this is the group that chose to recognize Frost/Nixon AND The Reader instead of The Dark Knight), but Mad Max has defied expectations to perform superbly with the guilds, the critics, and the Golden Globes. There seems to be a large amount of goodwill toward that film, and I think it will have the passion to break through.

In a lineup that is lacking in options for the basic biddies who make up the bulk of the Academy, I assume there is a contingent of support for Bridge of Spies. Steven Speilberg's slightly sterile Cold War drama is dripping with prestige and importance, and the critics were kinder than I thought they'd be. One wonders if this is really a film that will attract enough #1 votes, but the Academy did recognize War Horse under this voting system, and nobody even liked that movie. Spielberg always finds a way. And maybe I'm deluding myself (possible), but I really think there will be enough support for Carol to get in. Todd Haynes' Cannes hit is one of the critical darlings of the year, and it's Harvey Weinstein's big push of the season. It did well with the Globes and BAFTA, but its guild performance has been a bit troubling. In an industry run by straight men, there appears to be some resistance to the arty lesbian romance. And unfortunately, Todd Haynes does not have the best track record with the Academy (still hurting from all the Far From Heaven snubs 13 years ago, tbh). Still, I have faith in Dark Lord Harvey. His influence is not to be underestimated.

After that, who knows. Critically acclaimed period melodrama Brooklyn was the breakout hit from Sundance, and it is Fox Searchlight's big awards push after two consecutive years of handling the Best Picture winner. It's a nostalgic tear-jerker with tons of heart, and it seems to play well to the geriatric core of the Academy. But is it too slight for the Best Picture nomination? On the other end of the spectrum is Room, the breakout hit from the Toronto festival based on the popular novel of the same name and starring the likely Best Actress frontrunner. People who see it tend to love it, but the subject matter (kidnapping and forced imprisonment) is fairly dark. Some voters are allegedly avoiding this one because child endangerment makes them uncomfortable. The buzz is there, but will there be a large enough pocket of support?

And then there is a surprisingly large number of films that could sneak in if the cards fall right. Straight Outta Compton shocked everyone by becoming a huge box office smash at the end of the summer, and it actually got decent reviews. Universal is taking the wads of cash it earned from Jurassic World to mount an aggressive campaign for this one that has largely worked. Nearly every major industry guild has recognized this film. Will the Academy follow suit? The subject matter doesn't seem up their alley to say the very least, but stranger things have happened. My biggest problem is: what other nominations can it even get? Drug war drama Sicario is a film that seems to be heavily in contention for a number of nominations, and it makes sense that a Best Picture nod could follow. It performed well across the board with the guilds, got good reviews, and made a respectable amount of money at the box office. Lionsgate is a competent awards studio, and they've thrown a lot of campaign dollars behind this one, but I don't see it generating the passion for a Best Picture nod in this system.

Then there is the curious case of Star Wars: The Force Awakens. As the highest-grossing film of all time at the domestic box office, it is impossible to ignore this elephant in the room. From Gone with the Wind to Avatar, the Academy has a fairly consistent history of recognizing the new all-time #1. The reviews were pretty good and Star Wars is a franchise that has received Academy love in the past. Yet there appears to be a certain reluctance in the industry to honoring this installment, as evidenced by its surprising snub by the money-loving Producers Guild - a group that even recognized J. J. Abrams' Star Trek reboot. I think the Academy will relegate it to the technical categories.

The Producers Guild gave all of its sci-fi love to surprise spring box office breakout Ex Machina, by far the biggest hit ever for tiny distributor A24. This is the kind of highbrow sci-fi that the Academy has recognized in the recent past (District 9, Inception), but A24 has its hands full with a campaign for Room and likely can't push in two Best Picture nominees. The Globes gave a much-needed boost to Steve Jobs after its highly publicized box office failure, but is anyone really going to waste #1 votes on that turkey (besides Aaron Sorkin and Kate Winslet)? Inside Out marked a critically beloved return to form for Pixar, and they've profited from the expanded Best Picture lineup in the past (Up, Toy Story 3). But the buzz is oddly quiet for this one, likely because Pixar has spread its marketing team too thin with the additional release of The Good Dinosaur this year. I suspect that there are pockets of support for Quentin Tarantino and The Hateful Eight, but the consensus on that one is that it's too long and indulgent. Even Harvey Weinstein appears to have given up on it. And then there is always the possibility that the Academy will give into its most basic middlebrow instincts and honor Hollywood Blacklist drama Trumbo with all of its self-congratulation and gratuitous histrionics.

Best Director
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight 
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alternate: Todd Haynes, Carol

This category seems especially difficult to pin down, as it has been in recent years. The directors branch of the Academy is a finicky and idiosyncratic bunch. I can honestly see any of my predicted five getting snubbed for a variety of outlying contenders. I suppose the Globe win would make Alejandro González Iñárritu the frontrunner du jour, but I can't really see him winning. It's tough to even get nominated for your followup to a Best Director win (just ask Kathryn Bigelow and Tom Hooper), much less win again. But The Revenant is probably the flashiest directorial achievement of this bunch, and he's been doing the work on the campaign trail talking about how challenging it was to make this film. I'm fairly confident he'll be nominated, but anything is possible in this category.

I also feel fairly certain that Ridley Scott will make it. The man is a venerated multiple Oscar nominee, and as I said earlier, he made his first respectable movie in years with The Martian. It's a narrative that his peers in the directors branch will respond to. In a weird race, I can actually see him winning as a bit of a lifetime achievement award, though his bizarre, rambling acceptance speech at the Golden Globes likely gives many Academy members pause. The directors branch should also come through for George Miller, who has been around forever doing good work without much recognition. He's won a good chunk of critics' awards for Mad Max: Fury Road, and Warner Bros. has been doing its part to keep his name in the conversation. Part of me is worried that the movie is not very Oscar-y for obvious reasons, but the tide of support seems too strong to deny.

I have a hard time buying that Tom McCarthy and Adam McKay are both going to get nominated, but after the Directors Guild nominations, I'm not sure who to dump. Both of their movies are clearly strong Best Picture nominees, but it's not really because of the directorial achievement in either case. They'll be nominated on the strengths of their respective films alone. They're both relative unknowns. McKay's CV consists primarily of dumb Will Farrell comedies. McCarthy has directed some acclaimed indies like The Station Agent and The Visitor, but I dare you to sit through The Cobbler and tell me anyone involved should be winning Oscars. If only one makes it, I think it's McKay because The Big Short seems to be gaining momentum. Spotlight has a very TV movie aesthetic that may hurt McCarthy.

If one of the McBasics is snubbed, it will likely be in favor of Todd Haynes. Haynes is a major American filmmaker who has yet to be recognized by the Academy's directors branch, and Carol is widely considered to be his masterpiece. He won prestigious Best Director prizes from the New York Film Critics and the National Society of Film Critics, and he was nominated for the Globe and the BAFTA. He has Harvey Weinstein! I fear that the directors branch won't bite. This is arguably the most aggressively male and heterosexual branch of the Academy (I guess some of the tech branches could give them a run for their money). Their tastes can veer arty, which would seem to benefit Carol, but have they ever embraced something with such a queer sensibility? I'm not talking about Brokeback Mountain here. I hope I'm wrong, but I think Haynes is getting snubbed again.

One must always consider the threat of Steven Spielberg, who netted his first BAFTA nomination in over 20 years for Bridge of Spies. There are few people in Hollywood more respected than Spielberg, and the movie appears to be well-liked. It's worth noting that the directors branch of the Academy has a complicated history with Spielberg. He has been snubbed several times when he seemed like a safe bet. Even the middlebrow Directors Guild passed him over this year, and the Academy directors never recognize him when even the lowly television people say no. For his part, Spielberg doesn't really seem to care this season, perhaps burned by the tepid response to the overly aggressive campaign for Lincoln. Anyone else would be fairly shocking, but the directors branch can make some bizarre calls.

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant 
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Alternate: Steve Carell, The Big Short

The consensus appears to be that it's Leonardo DiCaprio's year and no one can stop him. I have no reason to doubt that. He has been working hard for this Oscar, sharing sob stories about suffering in the cold and eating raw bloody bison liver. You'd think nobody on earth had ever had a difficult shoot! The performance itself is physical and showy, and he is the whole movie. It's Leo's world and we're all living in it.

The potential spoiler may be Bryan Cranston as legendary communist blacklist victim Dalton Trumbo in Trumbo. Cranston is one of the most respected actors in the biz thanks to "Breaking Bad," and the transition to film has been remarkably easy for him. It's a big, showy, scenery chewing performance in a movie about Hollywood and artists standing up for their convictions. Cranston gets extra bonus points for playing a real person. Also getting real person bonus points is Michael Fassbender for the titular role in Steve Jobs. The movie was a huge bomb, but his reviews are great and he has won a fair share of critics' awards. If he weren't so standoffish and reluctant to play the campaign game, he might even have a chance at the Oscar.

Matt Damon makes sense on paper for The Martian, but I wonder if it's really Oscar baity enough. Yes, he's the lead in a likely Best Picture nominee, but he's kind of just playing Matt Damon in Space. He spends the majority of the movie harvesting potatoes and complaining about disco music. It might be telling that SAG snubbed him, though he did just win the (comedy?) Globe. The field is kind of weak, so I have a hard time seeing anyone replacing him. The weakness of the field is why we've all kind of shrugged and accepted that Eddie Redmayne is probably getting nominated for The Danish Girl even though the movie is a turkey and he didn't get great reviews. The reigning Best Actor champion has been thirstily pounding the pavement for a follow-up nomination, and it's certainly an Oscar-y role. However, the subject matter makes the older, conservative set uncomfortable, and the young, progressive crowd thinks the movie is outdated and problematic in its treatment of trans issues. He seems like he should be vulnerable despite getting nominated for all the televised awards, but who is strong enough to knock him out?

Surprise nominations often come from beloved Best Picture contenders, which makes me think Steve Carell could spoil for The Big Short. Carell is now a Serious Actor thanks to his Oscar-nominated turn in Foxcatcher, though he returns to his comedic roots for this one. He got a random Globe nomination, but he's not really the clear lead of the film. Still, the movie has fans who could be voting for it across the board. I suppose we must also consider Johnny Depp, who has been campaigning his tail off for his turn as Whitey Bulger in horrible age makeup in Black Mass. Depp has more or less squandered all of his credibility as an actor after years of starring in big budget trash, and this was supposed to be his image rehabilitation film. He got the SAG nomination, but I just don't think anyone likes the movie all that much. It's faded from the awards conversation at this point, and Warner Bros. has abandoned it to focus its campaign resources on Mad Max. Will Smith has also been working the campaign circuit for NFL cover-up drama Concussion, which everyone seems to agree is a garbage movie. He schmoozed his way to a Globe nomination, but the Academy will not follow suit.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alternate: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Brie Larson has unlocked new levels of thirst this Oscar season, blatantly owning up to schmoozing the Hollywood Foreign Press Association for her Globe win and favoriting and retweeting everyone on Twitter who remotely praises her work in Room. I'm living for it. This former indie darling is taking full advantage of her moment in the sun. It helps her case that her work in Room is showy and acclaimed. She really would be a worthy winner. Miss Larson is a graduate of the Eddie Redmayne School of Oscar Campaigning. It's not possible to want it too much.


Her strongest competitor is likely Saoirse Ronan, who has achieved the impossible task of transitioning from child Oscar nominee to respected adult actress. Truly the Jodie Foster of our times. Ronan's work in Brooklyn is pretty low key for a potential Oscar winner, but she has effusive reviews and the Best Actress prize from the New York Film Critics. This award will likely come down to which film has more broad support in the Academy, as both are on the bubble for a Best Picture nomination.

Cate Blanchett would probably be a frontrunner for the win for Carol had she not just won two years ago. It's hard enough to win a 2nd Oscar, much less a 3rd (ask Meryl Streep). Blanchett has received some of the best reviews of her career in Carol, and everyone loves her. She's getting nominated even if the Academy gives her movie the cold shoulder in every other category.

After that, it's a bit difficult to predict, and the televised awards haven't given much guidance. Joy promised to be a potential winning vehicle for Jennifer Lawrence as she finally had the chance to carry a non-franchise vehicle by herself. Critics came for David O. Russell's latest with their knives out, and the movie's chances are basically dead outside of this category. Lawrence is the biggest female movie star in the world, and she did win her 3rd Globe in 4 years for this. Now that she's free of The Hunger Games, she's been more visible on the campaign circuit than she has been in the past. She got good ink even from critics who hated the movie, but many feel she was miscast, and the fact that she is continuously cast in roles meant for 30- and 40-somethings is starting to become a point of contention in entertainment media. Can she pull off a nod for a film that is otherwise dead in the water? At this point I say, why not? I'm not seeing a ton of other convincing options.

Despite getting no love from the televised awards, I'm giving the last spot to Charlotte Rampling. She is a respected veteran who has somehow never gotten an Oscar nod, and she's giving the performance of her career in a very acclaimed film. 45 Years is a tiny film, but Dame Charlotte has been doing the work on the campaign trail, and there is passion for this performance. She won the Best Actress prizes from Los Angeles and the National Society of Film Critics. The Academy operates on a preferential ballot, and this is the kind of passion pick that can make the cut by virtue of having enough #1 votes.

The real reason for the weird confusion in this category is a number of clearly leading performances that have been campaigned in the supporting category for the bulk of the season. Category fraud has always happened, but it has never been quite as outrageous as this year. Alicia Vikander's character is in many ways the focal point of The Danish Girl. The story is essentially told from her perspective, and her character has more of an arc than Redmayne's. Rooney Mara is by all accounts every bit as much of a lead in Carol as Cate Blanchett is, and she even beat her costar for the Best Actress prize at Cannes. Both women were nominated in supporting at SAG and lead at the Globes. Vikander got a Best Actress nod at BAFTA while Mara was relegated to supporting. Who knows what will happen at the Oscars. One or both could conceivably show up in Best Actress. Vikander is probably more likely, as she has another performance in the supporting category that could get her nominated. At the same time, I can't imagine that The Danish Girl has enough support for TWO lead acting nominations, though Vikander generally got better reviews than Redmayne did. Mara is in a Harvey Weinstein movie, and people will vote for her where he tells them to.

In my dreams, Charlize Theron is a contender for Mad Max: Fury Road, and hey! Maybe she is! She did get a Best Actress nod from the otherwise worthless Broadcast Film Critics Association, and she is the female lead of a likely Best Picture nominee. There is some precedent for an action heroine getting a Best Actress nod (Sigourney Weaver in Aliens.....yup, that's all I've got). Charlize doesn't really seem to care, and WB has focused its campaign on Miller, so it's probably not happening. As usual, the old dames are in the mix. Helen Mirren got a SAG nod for The Woman in Gold, which made a surprise splash at the box office in the spring and also has Harvey Weinstein pushing it. Maggie Smith got Globe and BAFTA nods for The Lady in the Van, a quaint comedy that got surprisingly good notices at the Toronto fest. Mirren is campaigning. Smith is not. Either could make it, I suppose. Or both! And then Sarah Silverman(???) got a SAG nod for something called I Smile Back, the most bizarre awards contender since we had to pretend Cake was a thing for several weeks in early 2015.

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Alternate: Jacob Tremblay, Room

This is probably the most confounding category of the year. Mark Rylance is the only person who I'm 100% certain is getting nominated. He's swept the big critics' prizes, and he got nominated for all the televised awards. His performance as a Soviet spy in Bridge of Spies is the kind of loud, villainous work that often does well in this category. Rylance doesn't do much film work, but he has more Tonys than he knows what to do with. Prepare yourselves for some weird speeches, FYI.

The general wave of love for The Big Short has me feeling confident that Christian Bale will be nominated. He's become a bit of an Oscar darling these days. The standing ovation Sylvester Stallone got at the Globes convinced me that he's probably getting nominated. Never in a million years did I think he would ever be nominated for another Oscar, much less for another Rocky movie. But the sympathy wave is strong, and that movie was a surprise critical and commercial smash. He could maybe even win.

What to do with the men from Spotlight? Someone from that movie HAS to get an acting nomination, right? And yet that film was surprisingly shut out of this category at both the Globes and SAG. Open Road made the rookie mistake of pushing too many people in this category instead of settling on one or two plausible contenders. Mark Ruffalo and Michael Keaton have the most buzz of this ensemble, with the former pulling a BAFTA nod and the latter winning the New York Film Critics prize in the lead category. I suspect that one of them will be nominated. My gut says Ruffalo because he's a nice guy. Keaton turned a lot of people off by being a Bitter Betty after losing to Eddie Redmayne last year. If neither makes it, Spotlight is just not winning Best Picture.

The last spot could go a number of directions. My gut says it will be Idris Elba. He hit that golden SAG/Globe/BAFTA combo, and it's the type of classic scenery chewing villain performance that does well in this category. Elba is well-liked in the industry, and he just feels like an inevitable Oscar nominee to me. The problem is that Beasts of No Nation has little buzz in other categories, and it's tough to sit through. Child soldiers in Africa do not make for pleasant holiday season screener viewing. But the film has vocal champions in the industry, and I think he can generate enough passion for #1 votes in an open category.

There could be a spot for Jacob Tremblay in Room. He got some of the most glowing reviews I've ever seen for a child actor, and the movie is a possible Best Picture contender. Brie Larson has made a point of effusively praising Tremblay at every opportunity on the campaign trail. Tremblay got a nod from SAG, which could be a sign of industry support. It will ultimately depend on how much love there is in the Academy for the film. He will have a hard time overcoming stiff competition from respected veterans. Paul Dano could sneak in for his acclaimed turn as Brian Wilson in Love & Mercy. This category is lacking in contenders playing recognizable figures, and of course the Beach Boys are LA legends. Dano got a Globe nod, but I fear the movie is too small. Michael Shannon got SAG and Globe nods for playing a seedy real estate agent in 99 Homes. I'm still scratching my head over that one. It could happen at the Oscars, but is anyone actually watching that movie?  Oscar winner Benicio Del Toro could be a spoiler for his work in Sicario, a film that is gaining a lot of late momentum in the race. He got a surprise BAFTA nod, but is it all too little too late? If The Revenant is really a Best Picture frontrunner, then Tom Hardy could get nominated. Can anyone even understand what he's saying in that movie?

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Alternate: Helen Mirren, Trumbo

The ultimate winner in this category is anyone's guess, though the Globes suggest that it could be Kate Winslet. We know Kate loves awards season, and she has been everywhere this year. She got good ink for serving '80s mom realness in Steve Jobs, and she has survived the public flogging the movie got for losing so much money. Of all these contenders, her performance is probably the most obviously Oscar baity. I think she's well-liked enough to win another Oscar. Why the hell not?

The other strong contenders are the category fraud duo I mentioned earlier. Alicia Vikander is the breakout ingenue of the year, and she is feasibly in contention for both The Danish Girl and Ex Machina. The former is the juicier role, but the latter is the buzzier movie. It really could go either way, and I won't be surprised by whichever film she gets nominated for. My guess is The Danish Girl only because Focus is the better awards studio. Harvey will have his way and get Rooney Mara the nomination in this category, but I don't think she has much of a shot at winning. It's a bit subtle for the Oscars.

I am having my own personal prayer vigil for Jennifer Jason Leigh. The poor woman has been in contention more times than I can count, and she's never been nominated for an Oscar. She got in with the Globes and BAFTA, but I am concerned. The role is meaty but unlikable, and the movie is not particularly popular. I'm not sure how many voters will actually make it to the end of their Hateful Eight screener. The category is sparse enough that she should get enough #1 votes to get in, but I have doubts.

For the last spot, I'm just going to guess that the most popular film wins out. Rachel McAdams benefits from being the only actress of note in Spotlight, even if she doesn't have much to do. It's the kind of filler Supporting Actress nod we typically see for strong Best Picture contenders. She got a SAG nod, and I guess the Academy will follow suit. I don't think most people in the industry care one way or the other about Rachel McAdams. If Amy Adams had this part, we wouldn't even be thinking twice about this nomination.

McAdams could be vulnerable to Helen Mirren as infamous gossip columnist Hedda Hopper in Trumbo. She delivers one-liners with delightful vitriol, and everyone loves Helen Mirren. I think the movie will play well to the Academy, but is this a performance that's going to get #1 votes? She doesn't really have much of substance to do. The same is true of Julie Walters, who got a random BAFTA nod for Brooklyn. Walters is a multiple Oscar nominee with a sympathetic presence in a well-liked film, but there's no way she gets nominated unless that movie is a stronger Best Picture contender than I think it is. Jane Fonda has been campaigning her ass off, and it's been a hoot, but there is no way she will actually get nominated for her cameo in Youth, right? I mean, I am here for it, but I can't see it happening. I am praying for Kristen Stewart in Clouds of Sils Maria, but there is no campaign for that film. IFC threw together some last minute screenings, but it's probably too small and arty to make an impact. At least KStew won prizes from the New York Film Critics and the National Society of Film Critics. Who knew she had it in her to be an art house queen! When will your faves??

And the rest...

Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Spotlight
Alternate: Straight Outta Compton

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
Room
Steve Jobs
Alternate: The Martian

Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
Inside Out
The Good Dinosaur
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun The Sheep Movie
Alternate: When Marnie Was There

Best Foreign Language Film
The Brand New Testament (Belgium)
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)
Mustang (France)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Theeb (Jordan) 
Alternate: A War (Denmark)

Best Documentary Feature
Amy
Cartel Land
He Named Me Malala
In Jackson Heights
The Look of Silence
Alternate: The Hunting Ground

---

Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alternate: Spotlight

Best Cinematography
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario 
Alternate: The Hateful Eight

Best Production Design 
Bridge of Spies
Cinderella
Crimson Peak
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alternate: The Martian

Best Costume Design
Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
Alternate: Crimson Peak

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant 
Alternate: Black Mass

Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alternate: Inside Out

Best Original Song
50 Shades of Grey - "Love Me Like You Do"
Furious 7 - "See You Again"
The Hunting Ground - "Till It Happens to You"
Meru - "The Light That Never Fails"
Youth - "Simple Song #3"
Alternate: Spectre - "The Writing's on the Wall"

Best Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alternate: Sicario

Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alternate: Inside Out

Best Visual Effects
Ant-Man
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alternate: The Avengers: Age of Ultron

2015 Grand Prix Final Recap - Men and Ladies!

Men

After an incredible pair of performances at NHK Trophy, Yuzuru Hanyu broke the world record in both programs again at the Grand Prix Final. I am just in complete awe and have to bow down to this god among men. How long can he keep this streak going? I don't care. I just feel privileged to be watching this level of absolutely incredible skating. How much higher can he go? Yuzu was less than 2 points away from the maximum program components score in the long program. He does have a quad loop in his back pocket, presumably ready to throw into competition at some point in time. But the International Skating Union faces the very real possibility of a skater maxing out under the current system, and discussions about adjusting the scoring criteria are currently underway. Technical accomplishments aside, Yuzu has incredible performance quality. The "Seimei" long program is powerful and exciting, and he gives it 110%. The choreographic step sequence at the end is just so thrilling to watch that it makes you forget it's part of a competitive program. Yuzu has deservedly entered the "greatest of all time" conversation after two incredible showings. I'm not prepared to bestow that title upon him just yet, but he certainly is a once-in-a-generation talent.

In the shadow of Hanyu's mind boggling achievement, it's easy to overlook just how remarkably well-skated this men's event was, especially the long programs. Reigning World Champion Javier Fernandez was a remarkably good sport about his training mate blowing him out of the water in front of a home crowd on a day when Javi skated the best long program of his career. It proves my earlier point that Javi, while very gifted, is still a cut below his rival and probably can't ever hope to defeat a clean Hanyu. I do find Javi to be a more engaging performer. Both of his programs this year are well suited to his strengths, and he sells them. He did get some home ice Christmas gifts. I love Javi, but he's not somebody who should be scoring 10's in program components. Still, it's clear that amazing things are happening in the Brian Orser camp. I would probably send my overachieving adopted child to him if I wanted to raise an Olympic Champion.

Shoma Uno continues to impress and overachieve in his first season on the senior Grand Prix. The quality of his skating is still out of this world for someone so young. Despite a fall on a quad toe in the short program, I even see improvement in Shoma's terrifying jump technique (though I still hold my breath on every jump takeoff). There are so many magical moments in that Turandot long program, particularly the cantilever on the crescendo of "Nessun Dorma." It's rare to see that kind of attention to detail from a first-year senior. I'm a bit perplexed over his program components compared to the other top men. He may not be as naturally charismatic as Javier Fernandez, but he has superior skating skills and detailed, intricate, and difficult program composition. I suppose the scores will rise as he gets older. Either way, I'm obsessed and am rooting for him.

The Grand Prix Final was a bit of a wake up call for Patrick Chan. He is now 0/3 on short programs this season. This was his worst bomb yet. The 3X World Champion found himself a whopping 40 points behind Yuzuru Hanyu, which is frankly embarrassing for someone with his resume. Like at Skate Canada, he came back with a brilliant long program performance, but the writing is on the wall. The technical content is not enough to battle with what his top rivals are presenting. Gone are the days when Patrick could get the quad toe and triple axel out of the way at the beginning of the free skate and call it a day. He needs to repeat one or both jumps in the second half of the program to have a chance. For the first time in his career, Patrick isn't even able to beat Yuzuru Hanyu on program components. Patrick didn't come back to not win Worlds and the Olympics. I'm sure he didn't fathom that he would finish off the podium here. Taking into account Denis Ten's superb performances a couple of weeks ago at a cupcake contest in Croatia (seriously, when will he get it together for a Grand Prix season???), Patrick's path to the Worlds podium is looking dicey.

Jumping wonder Jin Boyang came terrifyingly close to a medal at this event, and he didn't even have clean programs. The base value of his technical content is so high that he can get away with not executing it very well. His program components were crazy high here for what he presented. Judges need to feel comfortable awarding 5's and 6's to skaters who are in the Grand Prix Final and can do a quad lutz. If the skating skills and performance quality aren't there, then the scores should reflect it. The top men should be (and probably are) sweating about this kid heading into the World Championships. I respect the technical ability, but come on. We all have to learn how to actually skate sometime.

Poor Daisuke Murakami was woefully outclassed here. Frank Carroll was looking very over it. Dice has the quads, but there's nothing remarkable to his skating. His long program is like watching paint dry. The music sounds like it was selected from a royalty free catalog. I was perturbed by how ecstatic he was in a short program where he popped the back half of his combination. Gurl, if you aren't going to give me the performance, at least rotate everything. With only two spots to spare at Worlds for the Japanese men, I don't really see Dice faring well against Hanyu, Uno, or a number of other Japanese men.

Ladies

The tyranny of the Russian teenagers continues, though I do like Evgenia Medvedeva more than the rest of them. She deserved to win here, but as usual with these Russian girls, the judges are really embarrassing themselves. Evgenia has good skating skills for her age, but I cannot even begin to justify program component scores in the 9's for her. There is just a frenetic quality to her skating. She has a nice body line (at least compared to some of the other Russian horrors), but she doesn't hold out her movements. I'm missing the maturity and sophistication that I saw from the top American and Japanese ladies in this event, and that was not reflected in the scores. When these girls get such crazy program components so young, they don't improve as they get older. What incentive do they have? However, the girl can jump. No arguing against that one. I trust her jump technique, though Eteri Tutberidze also taught Yulia Lipnitskaya her non-technique, and we all know how that turned out. Evgenia is a competitor, and I think she's been set off on a winning streak that will last through Worlds.

Satoko Miyahara ended 2015 much like she began it: winning a medal no one really expected her to. Despite being the reigning World Silver Medalist, Satoko is never really considered a favorite and tends to fly under the radar. There are many qualities to admire about her skating, but there isn't a lot of "wow" factor. It's easy for her to get lost in the shuffle. However, the girl is consistent, and she was one of few skaters in this event to put together two good programs. Satoko is a perfect little robot who does her run-throughs in practice and knows how to compete. It doesn't matter that her jumps barely leave the ice when she lands everything. I do admire her gorgeous spins, her perfect posture, and her attention to detail - a stark contrast to the dominant young Russians. She'll continue to be a major contender through Worlds.

Elena Radionova.....bless her. Part of me admires the extent to which she fully embraces her own tackiness. That Titanic long program is a camp masterpiece like we haven't seen since the days of Maria Butyrskaya. I also admire the girl's competitive grit. After missing the back half of her opening lutz + toe combo in the short program, she tacked on a triple toe to her triple loop through sheer willpower. It wasn't pretty, but it was rotated. Our American ladies would not be capable of something like that on the fly (Ashley Wagner tried and failed miserably). The quality is just not where it should be for a lady competing on this level. All of her jumps are terrifying in the air, and the landings are not good. I get that she's struggling with a growth spurt, but there is no technique. Her shoulders are always hunched over, and she needs a million crossovers per minute to generate speed. Elena has spunk and a flair for performance, but the lack of refinement is unforgivable. Again, the judges should be ashamed of themselves for showering her with program components in the 9's. At the end of the day, I trust Elena to get the job done, and she will be in the medal hunt at Worlds.

Ashley Wagner has been trying to paint her performance in the Grand Prix Final as a huge personal victory, but she's having a crisis of confidence. Her comfort zone appears to be bombing the short program and fighting back in the long. She was so bad in the short here that she had virtually no chance at a medal, even after she posted a career-best long program score. Ashley is good enough to win medals in this field. She had the second highest program components of the event in the long program even skating first, which is very impressive. She is the most natural performer of the top ladies, and she's really improved her skating skills and transitions over the years. Jump rotations are still a problem. I don't know what it's going to take for her to fully rotate that triple loop + half loop + triple salchow combo. It's never been clean. The judges are ready to put her on the podium if she can ever put together two clean programs at a major international event. It's up to her.

Gracie Gold....ugh. I don't know what to say. By all accounts, she was having great practices heading into the Grand Prix Final. Even after doubling her triple flip (again) in the short, she was realistically still in it for the silver medal with a good long program. What is it going to take to teach this girl how to compete? Frank Carroll is an amazing coach who has done wonders for Gracie, but he doesn't do well with those who can't motivate themselves (see: Mirai Nagasu). Gracie is the only person keeping herself from becoming a World Champion. The talent is there, and she has the programs to do it. Can she get it together? Nationals in January will be telling.

Mao Asada's competitive comeback is quickly veering into nightmare territory. She looked so amazing late in the summer at the Japan Open, and she hasn't come close to replicating that performance. In terms on raw talent, she should be wiping the floor with the current international ladies' field. None of these girls are anywhere close to Yuna Kim or Carolina Kostner, who were really the only skaters capable of beating Mao at her best. Mao skated a killer short program until she singled the lutz at the end. She was still in bronze medal position with that mistake, but the long program was a bit of a disaster. Mao is in great physical shape, and she's proven that she has the jumps back. What's keeping her from putting it all together under pressure? Is she working too hard? I hope she can take a nice spa day after Japanese Nationals. 

2015 Grand Prix Final Recap - Pairs and Ice Dance!

Pairs

After a dismal start to the season at Skate America, Ksenia Stolbova and Fedor Klimov fully redeemed themselves in the Grand Prix Final with a decisive victory, including a near-world record score in the free skate. It was nice to see the Olympic Silver Medalists with their old swagger back, but the scores got a little out of control. They can barely complete a triple twist, and Fedor's triple toe + triple toe + double toe combo looked underrotated to me, yet they got positive grades of execution on both elements. Their skating skills are superb, but their icy performance quality and lack of chemistry would prevent me from giving them the astronomical program components they received here. Still, the quality of most of their elements is superb. Their throws were the best of the field, and I live for Ksenia's extension on her landing positions. I'm completely obsessed with her. She is not a girl I would want to meet in a dark alley. I love my intense Russian ladies who would probably kill you to get what they want. In a year where all of the top pairs seem to be in an arms race to fill their long programs with quads, Stolbova/Klimov proved that it's still possible to win on quality and refinement. Are they the favorites for Worlds? It's difficult to say. Sui Wenjing and Han Cong withdrew from the Final due to injury, and Olympic Champs Tatiana Volosozhar and Maxim Trankov only competed in one Grand Prix event. Both of those teams could conceivably take the World Title. It will be exciting to see how things play out in the second half of the season.

This was a tough loss for World Champions Meagan Duhamel and Eric Radford. It is well known that Ksenia Stolbova gets under Meagan Duhamel's skin more than just about any other skater. Meagan suffered a somewhat shocking fall on a throw triple lutz in the short program, but they were still close enough to the Russians' score to win the event with a strong free skate. And indeed the Canadians did have a good free skate, only to see their Russian rivals best them by 10 points with easier technical content. What happened? They really lost on quality. It's worth noting that Stolbova/Klimov's picture perfect throw triple flip got almost the same score as Meagan and Eric's scratchy-but-landed throw quad salchow. The Canadians are one of the few top pairs who can do side-by-side triple lutzes, but none of their jump elements come close to matching what the Russians can score for their triple toe + triple toe + double toe combo. Meagan and Eric have improved the layout of their "Hometown Glory" long program by spacing out their throws. Still, it feels like there are long stretches of this program where nothing is really happening. The Russians have some built-in smoke breaks, but at least there is interesting choreography going on. When both teams are skating well, the Russians will have an advantage on program components due to their more classic look and superior skating skills. What can Meagan and Eric do to avoid falling behind? Honestly, they just need to relax. They can get tense and overthink things sometimes. They were fighting for every element in the long program here, while the Russians made it look easy. That was ultimately the difference. I hope they can take a nice vacation before Four Continents.

Like Cher and cockroaches, Yuko Kavaguti and Alexander Smirnov will still be here contending for medals when the rest of us are gone. Bizarrely, I left this event impressed with their improved consistency after a long program in which Yuko suffered two hard falls. They've at least given us good short programs at every outing, seemingly inspired by their impossibly schmaltzy Barbra Streisand/Bryan Adams musical selection. It's a step in the right direction for them. I still love that Tchaikovsky long program, even if it's never clean. I was amazed that they were able to recover from Yuko's back-to-back falls with their best throw quad salchow of the season thus far. Though we're always tempted to write them off, they find a way to force themselves back into the conversation. They will be in contention at Euros and Worlds.

I was incredibly impressed with the way Julianne Seguin and Charlie Bilodeau rose to the occasion after qualifying as the 7th team as a makeup for the canceled long program at Trophee Eric Bompard. This is a team that has continuously surpassed expectations and achieved great results. Julianne and Charlie are very engaging skaters, and I find myself rooting for them even though her lift positions are heinous. International judges give them higher and higher program components with each competition, and they are gradually creeping into legitimate World medal contention within the next few seasons.

Yu Xiaoyu and Jin Yang are now 0/3 in throw quad salchow attempts for the season, and it's been a hard fall for her every time. Does she land these throws in practice? It's casting a bit of a dark cloud on their long programs. They looked emotionally traumatized coming off the ice here. This is a team that possesses a great deal of technical ability, but they still need better packaging. The long program is a snooze on a good day, and it was tough to sit through when they were not skating well here. It's time for some louder costumes, off-ice acting lessons, booze-fueled sexual experimentation. SOMETHING.

This is just not the season for my favorite father/daughter team of Peng Cheng and Zhang Hao. It is well-known that Daughter Peng cannot jump to save her life. Some chalk it up to puberty, but she was eating ice regularly when she was 13. Yao Bin has many coaching gifts, but jump technique is not among them. This is another Chinese team that cannot land the throw quad salchow, and it's interfering with their other throws as well. It's like she's forgotten how to land everything, and this team usually has incredible throws. It might be best to axe it and focus on nailing two triples instead. I would personally quite like to be lifted and thrown around by Zhang Hao.

I was thrilled to see Alexa Scimeca and Chris Knierim qualify for the Grand Prix Final - the first American pair to achieve that feat in eight years. Sadly, they did not rise to the occasion. The short program was tight, and the free skate was a disaster. The quad twist is this team's money element, and Alexa landed it on her butt. From there, it was a free fall. I was almost impressed by the synchronicity of their side-by-side falls on their triple toes. Alexa and Chris have the ability to be competitive at this level, but they don't believe it. Alexa looked terrified in the short program warm-up while sharing the ice with the likes of Ksenia Stolbova and Meagan Duhamel. If the Americans don't skate like they belong here, the judges will score them accordingly. I'm hoping things go better at Worlds in Boston with a supportive home crowd.

Ice Dance

We all know that I love ice dance, but I'm over it this season. This crop of top dance teams fails to inspire enthusiasm. Nobody has risen to the occasion in the absence of Davis/White and Virtue/Moir to be convincing champions. As I've said before, Kaitlyn Weaver and Andrew Poje are a good team. They skate like they should be in about fifth place. Technically competent, but lacking in anything special. Their programs are difficult and I appreciate their skating skills the closeness of their dance holds, but they don't move me. This team is coached by Anjelika Krylova, one of the all-time great Russian dance divas. Why can't some of her crazy rub off on her star pupils? I just find nothing about this team to be memorable. Thank goodness World Champions Gabriella Papadakis and Guillame Cizeron are back in good condition and looking ready to go for the European Championships in January. Someone needs to save dance from itself.

Madison Chock and Evan Bates reversed the damage done at Cup of China by defeating the Italians here, but I'm not sure I see them winning Worlds. Igor Shpiliband does a good job of hiding Madison's sub-par skating skills (note that Evan always sets her down on an edge because she can't get there by herself), but they just don't cover a ton of ice. One associates champion-level ice dance with speed, power, and command. Madison and Evan's programs are pretty and she is a fabulous performer, but the skating doesn't leave much of an impression. I look at their exhibition program to Beyonce's "Haunted" and wonder why their competitive programs don't go that path. Madison has star quality. Let her serve the sex. Rachmaninoff is nice and all, but it's tired. You need to mask the technical deficiencies with a WOW program. Madison and Evan were scored a bit generously here, and one must never underestimate Igor's political pull. They received positive grades of execution on a twizzle sequence in which Madison visibly stumbled. I expect them to score well at Worlds in the U.S.

Anna Cappellini and Luca Lanotte.........what is there to say. Pleasant but dull. Her hunchy posture on the dance holds bothers me. Very slow and labored through the step sequences. I think they were way too high here, but I wasn't terribly surprised. They're beautiful people and engaging performers, but I'm bored. It's the same programs every year. Next.

The real outrage of this event was Maia and Alex Shibutani finishing off the podium. "Fix You" is the free dance of the season IMHO (not that there is much competition), and they skated the hell out of it here. They got big scores when they won NHK Trophy a couple of weeks ago, so I deluded myself into thinking they'd repeat in Barcelona. What gives? I've never been a huge fan, but this year they finally have the right packaging to shake off their weird sibling awkwardness. They've always been near the top of the international dance field technically. It irritates me that they're still being held down in program components when they've so visibly improved. Has Marina Zoueva given up on politicking for them? Honestly, if they don't make it back to the Worlds podium this year, it's probably never happening. I'll be praying for an upset at Nationals, but I think they're doomed to win silver again and hope for a top 5 finish at Worlds.

After the dust settled on the Grand Prix, Ekaterina Bobrova and Dmitri Soloviev seemed to assert themselves as the top Russian dance team in a contentious struggle for dominance. They proceeded to struggle to fifth place in the Grand Prix Final, barely defeating the third-best Americans. This is a team that was third at Worlds behind Davis/White and Virtue/Moir just three seasons ago. Why aren't they moving up in this depleted field? Out of sight, out of mind? International judges don't seem thrilled to welcome Katia and Dmitri back this season, and there seems to be little push behind them from the Russian skating federation. Everyone says their programs are light on content, but that was also true when they were winning medals. I actually find them to be much more enjoyable to watch now than when they were getting better results. It will be interesting to see how they fare at Russian Nationals. The powers that be may be putting their political powers behind Nikita Katsalapov and whatsherface that he's skating with now.

I was thrilled that Madison Hubbell and Zach Donohue made the Grand Prix Final for the first time. How nuts is it that THREE U.S. dance teams qualified? When did this become our discipline? Madison and Zach have wonderful chemistry, and I appreciate the maturity and sophistication of their presentation. The "Hallelujah" short dance is one of my favorite things anyone is skating this season, and they skated it brilliantly here. I'm still waiting for them to attack that free dance. It's very pretty, and they have some very eye-catching lifts, but they always skate scared. Madison and Zach are not used to being competitive at this level. They need to own the fact that they're officially a top dance team. They're also a bit slow compared to the other top teams, which hurts their program components.

2015 NHK Trophy Recap! Men and Ladiezzzz!

Men

The big story of the weekend was Olympic Champion Yuzuru Hanyu breaking (no - shattering) the world record score in both of his programs. After a disappointing loss to Patrick Chan a few weeks ago at Skate Canada, Yuzu rebounded and beat his chief rival's winning Skate Canada total by a staggering 51 points. Now, this event was in Japan, and some home ice inflation is to be expected. But Yuzu was legitimately incredible here. He upped the ante by adding a second quad in his short program, which I believe to be a wise choice. Yuzu often nailed his quad toe and triple axel in the short only to screw up the lutz+toe combination at the end. By increasing the technical difficulty, Yuzu is forced to maintain complete focus to the end of the program. The Chopin short program is a breathtaking masterpiece when it's clean. The technical elements are seamlessly woven into the rest of the program, and it's a compelling vehicle for Yuzu's superior edge quality and interpretive ability. The "Seimei" long program is powerful and exciting. It's full of difficult content, but it's captivating in a way that few long programs manage to be in the post-6.0 era. I honestly think this is the first time I've ever watched Yuzu skate and thought, "WOW! That's the Olympic Champion." He is a once-in-a-lifetime talent, but he rarely puts it all together (though he has the ability to score well even when he struggles). Can he keep this performance level up through Worlds? It may not be possible, but I'm glad he gave us two performances for the ages.

Jin Boyang continues to impress with his prodigious jumping ability, but it's time to improve everything else. The deficiencies in skating skills and performance quality are glaring when one watches him back-to-back with Yuzuru Hanyu. The program stops when he is setting up for jumps. I'm not really asking for someone to give me intricate transitions into a quad lutz, but there has to be something going on besides the technical elements. Not much power or ice coverage in the step sequences. Not a lot of real choreography happening in either program. He has the jumping ability to compete with the likes of Hanyu and Chan, but he needs more polish to get the program components he needs to beat them. The Chinese can be very protective of their single's skaters, but this boy needs to get some new eyes on him to get the complete package. With a little refinement, he could be the next Olympic Champion.

Takahito Mura showed much improvement here after his dismal 10th place finish at Skate America, but zzzzzzzzzzzzz. Sorry, what? Truthfully, Taka has never been one of my favorites. Good skating skills, but it's like watching paint dry. The packaging is always basic and predictable. It's 2015, and we're all over Cirque du Soleil programs. He doesn't really perform. How long has he been around? When you're 24 and toiling in the second tier, it's time to leave your father and find a real coach. The good Japanese skaters swallow the bitter pill and find themselves a Russian (or Canadian!) coach to learn how to be artistic. In a crowded Japanese men's field, I don't think we'll be seeing much more of Taka this season.

NHK wrapped up a surprisingly good Grand Prix season for Grant Hochstein. Grant has long toiled in the 11-20 group at U.S. Nationals, but he has a fire under his butt and is ready to move to the A-group. Grant even landed a clean quad toe in his free skate here - the first time I can ever remember him accomplishing that. At his best, Grant is an engaging, artistic skater with an innate sense of musicality. That Grant showed up in the long program, and the judges rewarded him for it. Unfortunately, a rocky short program prevented him from winning a medal here, but 4th place was a triumph for a relatively unknown skater in a tough event. The only thing standing in Grant's way to a top 5 (or even top 3!) finish at Nationals is self-confidence. He's a wild card for the World team in a U.S. men's field that keeps getting more and more interesting.

Konstantin Menshov continues to be the most entertaining of the Russian men, but there are times when one must question why he continues. When you're 32, you've never won a medal at a Grand Prix event, and you still can't give us good spins or decent skating skills, it may be time to pack it up. Like clockwork, Konstantin always nails the opening quad toe + triple toe of his long program before everything else goes to crap. I still appreciate the drama he brings to this long program, and I approve of the Donnie Darko angst. Well done.

Sometimes, you can tell when a skater has mentally checked out. There's no other way to describe what's happening to Ricky Dornbush. Ricky has the talent to be a major contender, but he's getting increasingly terrible competitive results. He phoned in both his performances at NHK from outside the rink, and he looked upsettingly unfazed by how poorly he skated. It's frustrating to watch such a gifted skater struggle so much. It makes one wonder how much longer he has before he just quits for good.

The award for most confounding long program of the event goes to Maxim Kovtun. When you're tripping on purpose in a program, I can only assume that you're masking your weak skating skills with gimmicks, which.......was most certainly happening here. There is also a moment where he falls asleep in the middle of the ice. What? It's pure cheese, but Maxim doesn't have the charisma to sell comedy. Maxim has strange jump technique, and he's very prone to popping. He wildly flings himself into those quads and prays he'll land them. He singled out of two jumps here, and he wound up performing too many double axels by mistake, causing one to be invalidated. It was a bit of a disaster performance, but I wasn't terribly surprised. The Russian men always come in threatening to do three quads in a long program, but we know it's just not going to happen for them.

With this weekend's results, our Grand Prix Final qualifiers are:

1. Javier Fernandez
2. Yuzuru Hanyu
3. Shoma Uno
4. Jin Boyang
5. Patrick Chan
6. Daisuke Murakami
Alternates: Yan Han, Max Aaron, Adian Pitkeev

Ladies

In a fairly deep field, the surprise gold medal winner was Satoko Miyahara. Satoko is like a tiny lovable robot with that perfect posture and amazing spin positions. The Lizst long program is lovely, but she needs to project. Because she's so small and doesn't cover a ton of ice, she needs something extra to make more of an impression. I enjoy her skating, but she's an easy skater for judges to bury when other top skaters are doing well (like at Skate America earlier this season). It doesn't help that her jumps barely leave the ice. I had to rewind this program a few times to see if she was doing doubles or triples. As a judge, I would not feel compelled to award her high grades of execution on any jumps. Satoko's greatest weapon is her consistency, and I always have faith that she'll skate well. Her success will always depend on whether or not others make mistakes.

I was thrilled to see Courtney Hicks grab the silver medal here, even if there is still room for improvement. I love that short program, and it was great to see her go out and attack it (minus a turn-out on the flip+toe combo, which was 100% unnecessary). The long program.....why is Elizabeth: The Golden Age so popular this year? Does anyone even remember that camp fest (except for me because I enjoy reenacting Cate Blanchett's "I TOO CAN COMMAND THE WIND, SIR!" scene)?? The music is kind of one-note and doesn't really go anywhere. Courtney is not an artistic skater, and this nothing music does her no favors. Also doing her no favors: the yellow dress. Girl, when your hair is bright red, all I can see is ketchup and mustard. Everyone in the skating world agrees: CHANGE IT. Courtney's jump technique is still a bit wild, though she did a better job of keeping it under control here. The presentation has improved, but there is more work to be done. Courtney is such a naturally powerful and athletic skater, and stronger skating skills could help her be even more impressive. She is in the mix for a spot on the World team, and I hope she does well at Nationals.

This was a disappointing event for Mao Asada, who was the headliner of the whole event. I think skating fans (myself included) got a bit ahead of themselves when they expected Mao-chan to come out of the gate and dominate in a ladies' field that had us all feeling a bit depressed last season. Mao's skating quality is in a different universe from the other top ladies, but she historically struggles at early season events. I wonder if Mao is pushing herself too hard in this comeback. She has always presented very ambitious technical content, and she's taken it to yet another level this year. She got credit for the triple flip + triple loop combo in the short program (literally the hardest combo any lady has ever attempted), but she missed the triple axel and singled the lutz. The long program started with another failed triple axel attempt and never really got better. Even her program components were lower than I thought they'd be at an event in Japan, but that's what happens when you aren't consistently delivering. Mao-chan still made the Grand Prix Final, but this weekend proved that reclaiming her World Title will not be smooth sailing. I'm still rooting for her and know that she has the goods to destroy her competition. The Madama Butterfly long program is beautiful, and I can't wait to see her skate it to its full potential.

The fourth place finish here was a bit of a disaster for Ashley Wagner. With Mao Asada's mistakes, the door was wide open for Ashley to win her 2nd Grand Prix event in a row and enter the Final in 1st place. Ashley can often be her own worst enemy when the stakes are high. It happened last year at Worlds when she was a medal favorite and bombed the short program. Nobody expected her to win Skate Canada, so she skated like she had nothing to lose. The triple flip + triple toe combo is always the first element to go when Ashley is doubting herself, and she missed it in both programs here. She is also very prone to two-footing jumps when she's nervous, which happened too many times to count in the long program. She also starts to rush and loses levels on her step sequences and spins. We all know Ashley's going to underrotate a couple of triples even on a good day, and it all added up to the lowest international scores she's gotten in a long time. To her credit, Ashley never stopped performing. She is an actress on the ice, and she always puts on a show even when she's not skating well. She still barely qualified to the Final, where she has a chance to redeem herself. I'm lighting a candle and praying.

There has been much discussion in the skating fan community about Mirai Nagasu's scoring here. Should she have been ahead of Mao and Ashley? My verdict is no. I love Mirai, but I think some fans watch her skating through rose colored glasses and remember what she was like 2010. Her flip + toe combination in the short program could have gone either way for me, but the technical panel called it underrotated and I think I agree. Mirai is a chronic underrotator, and she does not ever get the benefit of the doubt. From a program components standpoint, I thought she looked very slow and low energy. The performance quality comes and goes. The spins are still beautiful, but that's it. As expected, she had underrotations galore in the long program, and I think all the calls were fair. Tom Zkrajsek is a great jump coach, but he can't undo years of bad habits. I know everyone is rooting for Mirai to make the World team, but I don't see it. I think she's the sixth best lady in the U.S. on a good day. I just think the ship sailed several years ago.

I don't have much else to say about the ladies other than draw attention to Anna Pogorilaya, who had one of those disaster short programs for the ages. This is a girl who can take some big, hard falls. By the third fall (on a step sequence, no less!), I thought she was going to walk right off the ice. I'm not a fan, but I still felt bad. Someone needs a vacation.

And with these results, the ladies' qualifiers to the Grand Prix Final are:
1. Gracie Gold
2. Evgenia Medvedeva
3. Satoko Miyahara
4. Mao Asada
5. Elena Radionova
6. Ashley Wagner
Alternates: Rika Hongo, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, Courtney Hicks